Hello DFS Army members and we are now into the month of March! My name is Steve aka Mutt18. I am one of the new content contributors here at DFS Army and I’m very excited to be a part of the team! I am @mutt_18 on Twitter as well, so give me a follow for any updates on this article as I will tweet them out. A little background about me, I’ve been grinding DFS for about 5-6 years now. DFS helped me pay my way through college and I am now a full-time firefighter. I love the challenge that DFS brings and my main sports are basketball, football, and baseball. I play on both FanDuel and DraftKings and today we will be focusing mainly on DraftKings. I am also working on a Tutorial Article of how to use the RS Who’s Hot and Clock Watch tools to your advantage.
This article will be expanding into some new territory here at DFS Army as we will be looking at Value Traps. A value trap, also referred to as a land mine, are a player that jumps out either in the Domination Station or Research Station as representing value but in reality they really have no way of making value, either through inconsistent play, lack of opportunity, or they are just a bad play in general. These plays are often the ones that either make or break your lineups. My goal in this article is to dig a bit deeper and use all the great data available to us in the DS and RS and help try to identify those “Value Traps” that will destroy your lineups and end up costing you money. By identifying them my hope is to help educate you on what to look for and how to avoid these lineup killers. From there I will also be focusing on some of the lesser known tools available in the Research Station, specifically the Who’s Hot, and Clock Watch sections that can help us identify those players trending in the right direction that we can identify and use before the rest of the DFS world catches on.
If you’re also playing FanDuel tonight, the Drop Score is a new wrinkle that we can use to our advantage, for advice on using the Drop Score: PLEASE READ THIS ARTICLE!
Happy St. Patrick’s Day! Tonight we’ve got a small 4 game Sunday slate. Like I always say, please play light today because Sunday’s are always the Twilight Zone when it comes to DFS. And if you’re going to be celebrating St. Paddy’s Day it’s probablyyyyy best to not play at all tonight as drinking and DFS usually lead to suboptimal lineup choices. On only 4 games there’s a couple traps I think I found, so without further ado, let’s get into it!
First let’s look at last articles picks:
Will Barton (37.5) – I swear Will reads my article, because every time I write him up as a trap he always comes out and scorches. Monte Morris did squat last night because Barton played so well.
Kenrich Williams (19.5) – I really expect Kenny to start coming off the bench soon, he really hasn’t been playing well since AD came back.
Ivan Rabb (5.25) – Called itttttttttt!
Jarrett Allen (23.75) – Didn’t hit 5x value, just as predicted, Rudy really is a great defender.
Now lets look at yesterday’s picks!
Elfrid Payton (61.75) – Almost 9x value again, listen to the Mutt!
Monte Morris (9.0) – He had probably his worst game of the year last night. Barton playing well really hurt his output.
CJ McCollum (21.25) – He got hurt and only played 23 minutes…can’t predict that.
Jakob Poeltl (26.5) – Right at 6x value! Just what we needed.
Enes Kanter (8.5) – Nurkic was on fire and played 34 minutes when he usually only plays 25-28. Limited Kanter to 14 minutes and he underperformed during that limited time.
Value Traps
Lauri Markkanen ($7,300) – His price just keeps dropping and dropping, but there is good reason for it. Lauri’s really been struggling from the field as he’s 7-25 from the field over his last few games. What really made him valuable a few weeks ago was his rebounding ability, but RoLo playing significant minutes has really hurt his rebounding ceiling. He hasn’t pulled down more than 8 boards per game in his last 5 and I expect that trend to continue. He’s dead last in our Who’s Trending Model today:
Caris LeVert ($4,800) – He simply hasn’t found his stroke yet, and with Crabbe out, it bumps him to starting where usage is really dominated by D’Angelo Russell. I like him more when he plays with Dinwiddie and the second unit as he seems more comfortable there, but with Crabbe out again today he will probably start again. I really like Russell and Dinwiddie over LeVert today as I don’t think he gets you the 5x value the RS is projecting.
Just Missed the Cut: Harry Giles ($3,900) – Not sure why the RS is projecting him for 4.9x value with Bagley back and the Kings back at full strength in their front court. Bagley will dominate usage with the 2nd unit and Giles will be an afterthought. He’s unplayable unless Bagley is out.
Who’s Trending
Montrezl Harrell ($6,600) – Harrell is near the top of the list in our Who’s Hot model, let’s take a look:
He’s still under 7K and is averaging 40 FPPG over his last 3 and now gets a matchup against the one of the worst teams in the NBA at defending the Center position. This is the matchup of teams that can’t defend bigs and I expect there to be some good fantasy points scored in this one.
Jarrett Allen ($5,300) – You had to see this coming right? Bigs against the Clippers…..you know the drill. Allen should see close to 30 minutes today and bigs have dominated against the Clippers. Actually both of these teams are horrible at defending the Center position, so I love the idea of having Harrell and Allen in the same lineup. He should be able to put up 30+ in this matchup.
Chris Paul ($6,700) – He’s simply way too cheap on DraftKings. On a small slate like today, there aren’t many plays under 7K that have 50+ FP upside. If Harden also ends up sitting this game, just plug Chris Paul into you’re lineups and don’t think twice.
D.J. Augustin ($5,100) – Briscoe is still out and Augustin gets a matchup against the very guard friendly Hawks defense tonight. He should see 30+ minutes tonight against a horrible defense. I’ll have a ton of him tonight. He’ll likely be a core play in my sheet later today as well.
Just Missed the Cut: Tyus Jones ($4,700) – ONLY IF TEAGUE IS OUT! If Teague plays then I like Teague. If Teague misses this game then I really like Jones to put up 25+ FPs in this matchup. If Teague plays, then play Teague.
As always, keep your eyes peeled for updates as we get news closer to lock. All my updates will be in BOLD.
That’s all I got for today guys, any questions feel free to hit me up in the coaches forums (I am your DraftKings coach!) or via Twitter (username is at the top of the article) Now let’s go get that money!
Come join the Army and start counting your winnings! Use code: MUTT18 for 20% off!
