Hello DFS Army members and we are now into the month of March! My name is Steve aka Mutt18. I am one of the new content contributors here at DFS Army and I’m very excited to be a part of the team! I am @mutt_18 on Twitter as well, so give me a follow for any updates on this article as I will tweet them out. A little background about me, I’ve been grinding DFS for about 5-6 years now. DFS helped me pay my way through college and I am now a full-time firefighter. I love the challenge that DFS brings and my main sports are basketball, football, and baseball. I play on both FanDuel and DraftKings and today we will be focusing mainly on DraftKings. I am also working on a Tutorial Article of how to use the RS Who’s Hot and Clock Watch tools to your advantage.
This article will be expanding into some new territory here at DFS Army as we will be looking at Value Traps. A value trap, also referred to as a land mine, are a player that jumps out either in the Domination Station or Research Station as representing value but in reality they really have no way of making value, either through inconsistent play, lack of opportunity, or they are just a bad play in general. These plays are often the ones that either make or break your lineups. My goal in this article is to dig a bit deeper and use all the great data available to us in the DS and RS and help try to identify those “Value Traps” that will destroy your lineups and end up costing you money. By identifying them my hope is to help educate you on what to look for and how to avoid these lineup killers. From there I will also be focusing on some of the lesser known tools available in the Research Station, specifically the Who’s Hot, and Clock Watch sections that can help us identify those players trending in the right direction that we can identify and use before the rest of the DFS world catches on.
If you’re also playing FanDuel tonight, the Drop Score is a new wrinkle that we can use to our advantage, for advice on using the Drop Score: PLEASE READ THIS ARTICLE!
Last night was very profitable on FanDuel as I almost took down the $25 SE! So close!
Tonight we’ve got a decent sized 7 game Saturday slate, and I see a few landmines that stood out to me in the RS today. Now let’s dig in!
First let’s look at last articles picks:
Marco Bellineli (21.5) – He got extra run in this one due to the blowout. Still nothing exciting.
Bogdan Bogdanovic (17.75) – Bjelica is playing more is really hurting him. I’ll be avoiding him moving forward for the foreseeable future, especially with Bagley back.
Jeff Green (24.5) – He actually played well in this one, his stats were padded in that he actually scored 20 actual points, which he hasn’t done in the previous 9 games before this one.
Lauri Markkanen (21.5) – 2.7x value, yuck. Lauri is in the midst of a cold streak now, but he should snap out of it soon.
Now lets look at yesterday’s picks!
Elfrid Payton (59.50) – Almost 10x value! Dude is crushing with Jrue out of the picture.
Nemanja Bjelica (12.0) – Talk about dud, woof.
Damian Lillard (44.50) – Pairing him and Elf together last night was very profitable.
LaMarcus Aldridge (33.25) – Posted the article before the AD news came out, I didn’t have time to update on the article, but if you saw my notes I pivoted a lot of my Aldridge ownership to Julius Randle, which paid off big time.
Jake Layman – I don’t even want to post his score, talk about a let down in a good spot and opportunity.
Value Traps
Will Barton ($5,700) – Will Barton has slowly been trending in the wrong direction, and now with IT2 out of the rotation for the Nuggets, they’ve placed a lot of trust in the hands of Monte Morris, who has been playing brilliantly all season long. Morris is now playing around 30 MPG and this effects Barton the most as it prevents him from running the point with the second unit which really lowers his ceiling. Just take a look at his numbers since Morris’ role has increased:
You can see his minutes are on a steady decline, and I expect that trend to continue tonight. With him only averaging 3.6x return over the last 3, I don’t expect him to net more than 4x again tonight. Hint, Monte Morris is a good play tonight!
Kenrich Williams ($4,400) – Darius Miller coming back has really affected Williams the most. Ian Clark is also stealing some of his playing time and with both of those guys playing tonight, along with AD likely being back, it caps his ceiling even more. Elf has also been playing out of his mind and has been soaking up a ton of usage for the starters. Even with AD out last night Williams still didn’t play great and he’s only averaging 3.1x return over his last 3 games. With the crowded Pelicans rotations I wouldn’t be surprised to see him slip back to coming off the bench in the near future. He’s currently projected to return 6.3x value tonight and I really just don’t see that happening.
Ivan Rabb ($3,800) – Rabb’s minutes have been all over the place since Jaren Jackson got injured and we don’t know if he’s even going to start again tonight as Memphis has been flipping between him, Joakim Noah, and Bruno Caboclo. Even if he does start, I’m not a fan tonight as Noah is there and is playing significant minutes off the bench and producing at a much higher clip than Rabb. Right now there isn’t a ton of value out there yet, but I expect some to open up later in the day. Rabb looks like a juicy play, but he usually doesn’t play more than 23-24 even on his best days. Even though Washington is a really bad rebounding team, I expect Noah to get some extra run in this one as he is the better rebounder. Rabb would really only become playable if Noah is out for some reason.
Just Missed the Cut: Jarrett Allen ($4,900) – I know his price is incredible enticing on DraftKings, he’s more of a trap due to the matchup. While the Jazz have really forgotten how to play defense as a team this year, but Rudy Gobert is still one of the premier defenders in the NBA. (They don’t call him the Stifle Tower for nothing) I would really only have interest in Allen is we get word that he would play over 30 minutes in this one, but with Ed Davis healthy I really doubt he breaks that 30 minutes threshold. I see him playing closer to 24-28 minutes and given the matchup, I don’t see him crushing value.
Who’s Trending
Elfrid Payton ($6,900) – I’m going back to the well with Elf again tonight as the dude has been on just an absolute tear with Jrue Holiday off the court. I mean just look at his numbers in the RS:
Fresh off a triple double and he now gets a Suns team that can’t defend guards and TyJo is a GTD again, I think he’s closer to not playing but we shall see. If you can find another guy under 7K that’ll play close to 40 minutes and is averaging over 8x value over his last 3 then play him instead (Hint: You won’t find one). I’ll be loading up on Elf again tonight.
Monte Morris ($4,000) – Morris is still way too cheap given his new role. With IT2 out of the rotation he’ll now see close to 30 MPG and run the point with the second unit. Let’s dive into his numbers on the RS:
He’s averaging just under 7x value over his last 3, and that includes his bad last game. I expect him to bounce back and score close to 30 FPs tonight which would absolutely smash value. Morris is way too underrated in the NBA right now and I expect people will begin to learn his name by the end of this season. He’s a great value play that can be played at the PG or SG role on DK.
CJ McCollum ($6,800) – I loveeeeeeeeeee McCollum tonight. He’s locked in for 35+ minutes a game and this Spurs team is still leaking points to guards and McCollum always plays well against the Spurs, just take a look:
He put up 55 FPs against them last time out and is averaging just under 40 FPPG over the last 3 games against the Spurs. It also doesn’t hurt that he’s averaging 6.5x value over his last 3 and over 40 FPPG over his last 5. McCollum has 50+ FP upside tonight for sure.
Jakob Poeltl ($4,400) – Poeltl is adjusting well to his new role with the Spurs, and has been playing really well (put up over 40 FPs last night!). I expect this to be a competitive game and I give the slight edge to Poeltl over my next pick, and he will likely get the start and see more minutes, which makes him a bit safer. He’s playing close to 26-30 MPG and averages 1.06 FPPM. If he just hits those averages alone that should net you over 7x-8x value right there. He also showed last night that he has some upside as well. He’s also trending up in the model:
I like him even more if Rudy Gay is out, as it will keep Aldridge at the 4 and prevent him from eating into his minutes at the 5.
Just Missed the Cut: Enes Kanter ($4,400) – If you want to pivot off Poeltl (or play both) Kanter has been rejuvenated after finally being let out of that hostile situation in New York and he has thrived since joining the Blazers. He’s been playing right around 20 MPG and is averaging 1.53 FPPM since joining the team. The Blazers are also on the 2nd half of a B2B so I expect him to see a few additional minutes tonight to keep Nurkic’s legs fresh. He’s averaging 28.8 FPPG over his last 3 and in that same time span 6.5x value. I expect this to be a very competitive game tonight and I expect Kanter to give the Blazers a big boost off the bench. At only 4.4K he’s a great value play tonight given his recent production. If he gets hot and sees a few additional minutes, he can get you close to 40 FPs.
As always, keep your eyes peeled for updates as we get news closer to lock. All my updates will be in BOLD.
That’s all I got for today guys, any questions feel free to hit me up in the coaches forums (I won’t be available after 3:30 PM ET today though) or via Twitter (username is at the top of the article) Now let’s go get that money!
Come join the Army and start counting your winnings! Use code: MUTT18 for 20% off!
