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I don’t necessarily think you need a dominator this week. especially if Kyle does lead 40-60 laps. We generally see 5 guys with double digit laps led and fast laps spread all over the place so I will be looking to pair 2-3 top 5 finishers who will grab position upside and lead a few laps. This will lead to a lot more playable drivers in the top tier as none are really bad plays.
With all that being said, Let’s get started!! I am Ryan Larkin and you can follow me on twitter or join me in the Slack under the name @Larkin8
Kyle Busch 15500 Starts: 1st – Fade – Yeah I said it. Fade this dude. The price is ridiculous and there is little in the punt area that can be paired with him. Any Busch lineup will lack depth and should be outscored simply by having a strong overall lineup. Vegas runs relatively wide open especially the first few laps of the run. This mean Kyle loses his elite driving advantage. He can definitely win this race but in order to pay off he will need to have strong position upside and lead 75% of the laps. Just don’t see this happening.
Johnny Sauter $11200 Starts: 11th – Top Play – I greatly over estimated the impact of the quick turnaround for this team. However, the price is still a burden. He finished 2nd in both Vegas races last year but only led a combined total of 27 laps. All 4 Thorsport trucks finished top 6 last fall at Vegas and were all in top 7 in practice this week. Dropping down to those other 3 drivers and using that salary elsewhere might be the better play.
Brett Moffitt $10800 Starts: 2nd -Fade- The GMS trucks look STRONG this week with Creed fastest in 1st practice and Moffitt fastest in 2nd practice. Moffitt lead 27 laps last year and was a huge threat to Kyle Busch in the closing laps before finishing 3rd. Moffitt is the defending series champion. All that being said this price is high and it will be hard for him to pay off based on what we have everywhere else.
Stewart Friesen $10300 Starts: 7th -playable- MIght be good to look elsewhere but can’t ignore him from 7th. Friesen is essentially a teammate to the GMS trucks. He doesn’t have a great finishing record here however he did lead 48 laps (17.3% of all laps) in the 2 races at Vegas last year. Friesen was blazing fast on all the 1.5 mile tracks last season. He has the best average running position outside of Kyle Busch in the recent 1.5 mile track history (visit the Truck Research Station to check out these stats). He just needs to finish off these killer runs with finishes and he will be elite.
Ben Rhodes $9900 Starts: 19th – Top Play- Offers ridiculous upside. Ben Rhodes is the truth. Won here in 2017 and has the 3rd best avg finish in recent 1.5 mile truck history of series regulars. Another one of those fast Thorsport trucks. Slower in 20 lap average but I do not expect that to be much of an issue come race time. The top 10-12 trucks are all fairly close and a couple bad laps would greatly drop these guys in avg.
Matt Crafton $9600 Starts: 15th – Top Play – The OG Thorsport driver and 2 time Truck Series champion. Was strong in 20 lap average in both practices. Finished 8th or better in 10 of last 12 at Vegas with 7 top 5s.
Harrison Burton $9400 Starts: 3rd – Playable – Can do damage so he isn’t a fade but I wouldn’t have much of him. 2nd in 20 lap avg in 1st practice. 8th in 2nd practice. This just shows how tight the top 10 is. This will be Burton’s first race at Vegas and he has only raced on 3 1.5 mile tracks. Inexperience could be an issue throughout this race for him with so many strong vets to contend with.
Todd Gilliland $9200 Starts: 13th – Top Play – Could easily grab a top 5 in this spot. Good price and position upside. Didn’t make a 20 lap run in either practice but was 7th and 5th in 15 lap avg. Wrecked out of the fall race here last year. Should have a solid run and his KBM truck does have good speed.
Grant Enfinger $9000 Starts: 5th – Fade – Starting in the back place the position upside of Rhodes and Crafton make him a fade for me. He can definitely run well though just think he can be outscored. The last winner of a truck race and has finished top 5 in four straight races. He drives one of those super fast Thorsport trucks. Changed an engine in 2nd practice so he starts in the rear but should have no issue getting up to top 5/10.
Austin Hill $8800 Starts: 6th – fade – He is still an ok play based on price and position but I believe there are so many better plays around him. Daytona winner driving the truck that Moffitt ran great in at Vegas last year. Only 10th in 20 lap avg behind all those priced above him. Nobody is quite sure to what level Hill will be this year so it is a bit of wait and see. Either way this is still a good price point for a truck that won 6 races in 2018.
Jesse Little $8600 Starts: 17th – playable – Big Jesse Little fan. Runs part time but was incredible consistent last year. Was on pace for a solid top 15 last week before being involved in the late wreck. I would imagine a top 15 is fairly reasonable with top 10 upside like he had most of 2018.
Ross Chastain $8500 Starts: 16th – play – Chastain has been incredible in 2019 across all 3 series. Finished 3rd and 6th and I believe was in winning lineups for the first two Truck races of the season. Was poor in 1st practice but came on strong with the 6th best 10 lap average in 2nd practice. Finished 7th at Vegas last fall. Price is just too good to ignore him.
Sheldon Creed $8400 Starts: 9th -Play- Once Creed went fastest in 20 lap average in 1st practice and 3rd in 2nd practice he became someone who was playable no matter where he started. Only 1 top 5 in his 6 races with GMS. He has a lot of learning to do and we have seen his lack of experience a lot the first two weeks of the season. He is Risky in general but the speed of the Truck offers great upside. Drives for GMS
Ryan Reed $8200 Starts: 10th – playable – too affordable to fade but do think there are better plays out there. The Xfinity Series veteran is has found a 1 race ride in the Truck Series. I expect him to be able to stay clean and put in a good race. In the same place as Chastain with solid top 10 upside.
Timothy Peters $8100 Starts: 18th – Play – Solid position upside. Solid driver. Has two top 10s to start the season. Solid driver who keeps out of trouble. Don’t think he has the speed to finish top 10 but a solid top 15 is a reasonable expectation. Couple drivers have issues and he can maybe finish 10th like he did at Atlanta.
Brennan Poole $7900 Starts: 8th – fade – Should drop multiple spots. Poole struggled in practice and I am not sure quite where he will end up come the end of the race. I like him as a driver but we still aren’t sure to what level his equipment it.
Anthony Alfredo $7700 Starts: 14th -Fade- Starts too high don’t think he has the ability to hang there all night. Had a solid run last week at Atlanta. Still relatively inexperience so there is some risk involved but the truck is fast. 11th and 13th in 15 lap averages. Could be a situation where driver keeps truck from finishing where it should though.
Tyler Dippel $7500 Starts: 21st -Fade- Just a bit too expensive considering where the guys directly below him in price start. He could be ok but just don’t see the points per dollar equaling the others.
Austin Wayne Self $7200 Starts: 24th – Play – Has solid position upside. I think he can get around 35 points if the race breaks his way.
Gus Dean $7100 Starts: 26th- Top Play – Offers good enough position upside that he will probably be chalk. Dean lacked speed early in Atlanta but finished the race strong. Will be interesting to see how all the Young’s Motorsports trucks run this week because they did not look very fast in Atlanta. Appears to be about a 18th to 22nd place truck based on practice.
Spencer Boyd $6900 Starts: 23rd – Play – Very similar to his teammate in Gus Dean but slightly slower in practice. Price is solid though and has some possible position upside.
Jordan Anderson #6700 Starts: 20th – playable – Don’t love him from 20th but Looks better than the 3 trucks directly above him in price. Often found his way into the top 15 last year simply by staying out of trouble. Good price here for Anderson
Natalie Decker $6600 Starts: 12th – Fade- Just starts too high. Too many good drivers should pass her. Maybe Atlanta helped show everyone the lack of driving ability. Maybe not. Either way the truck is much better than the driver. Play at your own risk.
Josh Reaume $6400 Starts: 31st – fade – Worst truck in practice. Ran only 2 laps. Expect nothing from him. Making Norm Benning look like a better play is quite the accomplishment. Fade City
Korbin Forrister $6200 Starts: 25th – Top Play – He seems to find himself around 18th most the time. Offers a little position upside and should score nice for this price. Didn’t run a ton of laps in practice but seems to be about a 20th place truck. Couple guys fall out and could score nicely. Solid price here.
Cory Roper $6100 Starts: 5th- Fade – He starts too far forward for my liking but his price is great. He crushed last week as the punt play and that didn’t see his price go up much. He was 15th and 14th in 10 lap average in practice. Hopefully DK wakes the hell up and fixes his price in the 3 weeks before the next race.
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Norm Benning $5900 Starts: 32nd – Fade/play – I will fade but starting so far back he could finish 10 laps down and score 30 if 10 guys wreck. Not a big fan of this play but still plausible. Ran 2 laps of practice. Will be ultra slow. Probably doesn’t finish race.
Stefan Parsons $5800 Starts: 27th – Fade – I just don’t see were he can make up any positions. He can possible score 25 but just don’t see that being enough.
Jennifer Jo Cobb $5700 Starts: 29th – Fade – I will forever be on the fade Cobb gameplan. She will ride around and be 8 laps down today. However this could be enough to score 25-30 with the right amount of guys not finishing.
Angela Ruch $5600 Starts: 22nd – Play – YAY More Angela Ruch. Seems to be about the 20th best truck in avg. lap time. Truck is probably capable of top 10 but she definitely isn’t. I don’t love her but if she stays clean there is 30-35 points available. At this price shes probably as viable as anyone.
Jesse Iwuji $5500 Starts: 28th -Fade- Iwuji played football at Navy and went on to serve in Navy. He is also an active member of the Navy Reserves. He is incredibly likable and someone fun to root for. However, he will be 1.5 seconds off the pace and lapped numerous times. Will need a bunch of other drivers to have issues to score much.
Scott Stenzel $5400 Starts: 30th – Fade – Ultra slow. Only ran a handful of laps in practice. Probably has to be in your Kyle Busch lineup which is why Busch is basically a fade. Only way this pays off is if the race is a wreckfest.
This will conclude this edition of The Truck Series Setup. If you would like to reach out and talk NASCAR Follow me on twitter @Larkin8 or Become a VIP and join me as well as our other DFS Army NASCAR contributors (Brady Miller, Taco, and NillyJay) in the NASCAR coaching channels.