Flynnie’s Forecheck for 3/6/19
We’re back!! After a long off-season of watching the greatest love story since Romeo and Juliet – obviously, I’m talking about Alex Ovechkin’s love affair with the Stanley Cup – it’s time to play some hockey. For those of you that are new to the DFS Army, my name is Rob Flynn. I’m an NHL DFS writer and coach inside the DFS Army. We have the best articles, coaching, and tools in the industry. But let me tell you, the real money is made in the Slack chat that only our VIP’s have access to. That’s where we talk through a member’s lineup construction, thought process, or just answer any DFS questions they may have. Every coach is very accessible and willing to share our own processes to help every member grow as a player.
I wrote an article describing some of my process and some tips to win. Check it out here. We also have a brand new Research Station that is only available to VIP’s but here is the tutorial, to give you guys a taste of what’s coming this season. When you sign up to become a member, use promo code PUCK to give yourself 20% off for the life of your membership.
NHL DFS is very similar to DFS MLB. The volatility can be maddening, the floor of every player is ZERO and you need stacking in all contests. In cash games you need at least two players that correlate on either the scoring line or power play, to hopefully grab the goal and an assist. In GPP’s you need to stack the entire line and hope that line goes off for multiple goals.
Take a peek at our latest winner. DFSA is on fire over NBA All Star Break and would love to help you learn the game of hockey, as well! Whether you are already a VIP or are just passing by, our coaches can teach the rookie and veteran alike. Congrats to Handleyrs for a near 300 score and over $850 in winnings!!
Without any further ado let’s dig into today’s 4-game slate.
I am primarily a cash/hybrid player but even that requires some stacking. So, I list my favorite and then I take the pieces from those stacks that fit my lineup construction. Unlike last season, I will put my stacks, D-men, and goalies in order of my preference.
NHL FORWARDS
VGK 1 – Marchessault, Karlsson, Smith: This line has scored seven goals in the last ten games and three in the last three. They also should match up more often against CGY 1 who has been giving up a lot of goals recently: 5 goals in the last 10 and four of those coming in the last 3.
TOR 1 – Marner, Tavares, Hyman: Ten goals over the last ten games and six of them in the last three. VAN has been solid on defense for much of the last couple of years, but they are giving up a ton lately #25 in the league in goals allowed over their last ten. I expect a lot of chalk here but I’m willing to eat it.
WSH 2 – Vrana, Backstrom, Oshie: Of course Alex Ovechkin is in play. But with his firepower, PHI is going to try to their leaky second line from Ovi’s group. This should lead to a lot of opportunities for the second unit of the Caps. All three are reasonably priced on both sites and offer a solid floor as well as Backstrom and Oshie averaging a point per game over the last 5 and Vrana not too far behind at three points in the last 5.
Other stacks
CGY PP1
STL 1
WSH 1
PHI 1
TOR 2
VAN 2
VGK 2
WSH 3 – Especially an Eller one off, Burakovsky (4th line) is also a solid one off
ANA 2 – Still riding that Silvferberg train
Maybe prop bets are your thing, too? We are quickly expanding coverage into the different realms of sports betting!
DFS Studs on DEFENSE
Edler: He’s too cheap for the floor and ceiling he can produce. He is a high exposure play until he gets up over 5k on FD. $4,000 is just too cheap. He hasn’t tested that ceiling but he’s producing about 2x value over his last 5.
Theodore: He has a similar floor and a much higher ceiling than Edler. He’s averaging almost 20 points a game over his last 5 and Nate Schmidt has virtually identical stats lately.
Rielly: His numbers are starting to regress but he is in a smash spot tonight. While he will garner a lot of ownership, I expect him to be worth the ownership and price tag.
Honorable Mentions: Giordano, Sanheim, Miller, Fowler, Manson, Pietrangelo, Parayko, Provorov
GOALIES Set to Bring Value
**All stats are over the last three weeks unless otherwise noted**
Binnington: 6-2-0/1.63/0.936 He’s taken a small step back (he’s 6-2 vs 8-0 like he has been seemingly every other time), but he gets a great matchup against ANA. TheDucks are the only team on a B2B on this slate so fatigue may be a bit of a factor. My biggest concern with this play is not Binni himself, it’s the fact the STL has dropped way off in terms of scoring and ANA has been playing very good defense lately. I see this being a low scoring type of affair.
Andersen: 7-2-1/2.53/09.28 I’m assuming he will be the chalkiest goalie on the slate with a -190 money line in his favor and VAN only having a slightly better ITT than ANA at 2.8. Vancouver can score and TOR certainly isn’t a defensive juggernaut but they have enough firepower to outscore everyone else on this slate. I’m pretty confident in him picking up this win.
Fleury: 3-3-1/2.55/0.910 He is the riskiest of these three goalies but he also has the highest ceiling with the shot volume he is going to face from the Flames. CGY is #2 in shots on goal over their last ten and also in the top- 10 in scoring over that time. VGK has been middle of the pack in giving up shots, but have done very well to limit high danger chances. As we get closer to playoff time, get ready for Fleury to do what he does! He loves these pressure-packed games.
Honorable Mentions: Gibson, Smith
GOAL PREDICTION: TJ Oshie
Remember guys, always confirm the starters after Morning Skate.
I generally have this article out in the morning. If you guys have any questions reach out to me on Twitter or in our coaching forums. If not already a member, join the DFS Army today by using Promo Code PUCK to save 20% off your membership for life.