DFS Golf: Chalk Donkey – Valspar Championship – DFS Army

Key Stats this Week:

In this section, I’ll cover what I feel are some of the key stats this week. We get lots of questions in slack about what to look for in the RS and here are some of the things that I’ll be focusing on this week for the Valspar Championship.

Before we get into the stats this week, I wanted to provide you guys with a link to some info about Strokes Gained Data. Strokes Gained is a confusing topic and DFS Army member (And Milly Maker winner) @redkacheek has put out a great article explaining how they work better than I ever could over at his site Fantasy Golf Bag. I normally don’t link other sites but this is just too good not to share. Give it a look here! How Do Strokes Gained Stats Work?

Value Tab: 

The first thing I look at every week when I open up the  RS is the Value tab. Who is popping as a value this week? This is pretty easy to find as the better the value, the darker the green box. The value tab is basically a formula that takes our projection for points this week x 1000/their salary. So essentially its points per 1k.

No surprise here that Dustin Johnson leads the way. While conventional wisdom would say play him at tracks that he can pull the driver out and bomb it, he actually crushes these less than driver courses. He hasn’t played here since 2010, but I don’t really care (and neither does he). He’s an excellent option this week and one of my core plays in DFS.

Jason Kokrak continues to be priced up and I continue to question whether I should play him or not but I’ve been rostering him more than not and I will continue to do so this week. His iron play is just SO good. Love him this week, even priced up a bit. Has excellent history here as well.

Sergio Garcia and Patrick Reed will both be fairly chalky, but worth firing on. I have concerns about Reed’s play coming in but in each of the past three years, he has come in with poor iron play and then turned it on here. Something about Copperhead that clicks for him.

Finally, Gary Woodland, who has really struggled here over the years, and is currently playing some mediocre golf. He’s a no for me this week. I really have no interest except for as a contrarian option at his price point where he won’t garner much ownership.

Projected DK Score:

Projected DK Score (formerly Projected Course Score)is one of our best stats. This takes the current course into account. The FP/H averages by each hole type on the course are added up to create a raw per round FP scoring projection. It’s a good way to find out who is a course fit here and statistically should have success.

 

DJ at a less than driver course is essentially automatic for me. Core play. Another core play for me this week is Webb Simpson. He’s just getting it done everywhere, has a great history here, and this shows that he’s a great course fit as well. Sign me up.

I stated earlier that I really have no interest in Gary Woodland as anything more than a contrarian play and the same goes for Jon Rahm. Probably more so for Rahm as he really struggled off the tee this week and didn’t find many fairways.

Jason Day would likely be garnering much more attention had he been able to putt at all on Sunday at the Players and makes a nice little contrarian play at the top of the salary scale.

Seth Reeves is a good fantasy scorer but can’t make a cut to save his life. Denny McCarthy is always interesting, particularly on Fanduel this week as he really seems to pop here. He’s been playing OK golf lately and might be worth a shot.

Loading up on Paul Casey after last week’s fiasco isn’t for the faint of heart, but statistically makes a ton of sense here this week. I’ll also keep dumping money in Joaquin Niemann until he pops again as he is a world class talent that is just struggling a bit right now.

Stat Cruncher:

We have the much-anticipated return of the stat cruncher to the research station this week, so I’m going to break down how I’ll be using it.

What the stat cruncher allows you to do is build your own model based on the statistics we have available. Currently you can change the weighting and use any of the following statistics:

Odds to win

Field Rank: Last 15, Last 25, Last 50

Projected Round Score

Projected DraftKings Fantasy Points/Round

Projected Fanduel Fantasy Points/Round

Made Cut %

Driving Distance

Driving Accuracy

Greens in Regulation %

Birdies Gained

Fantasy Points Gained

Double Bogey or Worse Avoidance

Strokes Gained: Off The Tee (L15, L25, L50)

Strokes Gained: Approach (L15, L25, L50)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green (L15, L25, L50)

Strokes Gained: Putting (L15, L25, L50)

You can use all of them or just pick and choose which ones you want. The weights should equal 100 to get an accurate assessment.

For this week I really want to focus on a few of these areas: SG: Approach is going to be huge. Being able to attack these small greens and get the ball close will be the make or break for a lof these players. I also want to focus on Double Bogey or Worse avoidance as being able to stay away from big numbers will be another key to not slamming your trunk on Friday afternoon and heading home.

Here’s how I broke down my current model for the week:

Odds: 10% -Field Rank L25: 10% – Proj Round Score: 5% – Proj DK FP/Round 10% – Made Cut%: 5% – Driving Accuracy: 8% – Greens in Reg %: 5% – Fantasy Points Gained: 5% – Double Bogey or Worse Avoidance: 10% – SG Off the Tee L25: 5% SG App 20% – SG ARG L15 5%

And here is how it played out:

If you notice I didn’t target putting at all. It’s just so variant. And this is a course that doesn’t really require you to have a hot putter. The greens aren’t super fast and there is enough grain in them that they are fairly easy to read. I was heavy on SG APP and split it up a bit between the last 15, 25, and 50 rounds. I focused a bit more on recent off the tee statistics and recent around the green statistics as well as those will be more from similar grass types and courses that they have been playing.

DJ was far and away the best play on the board and that’s no surprise as he’s a core play for me, but Keegan Bradley popping here did throw me for a loop a little bit. This does seem like it should fit his game and while he’s had middling results here over the years it does feel like he is ready to pop at some point and I think this could be a good fit for him.

I continue to see Gary Woodland, but again I just don’t think he’s playing well enough right now. Webb Simpson is someone we’ve gone over here multiple times and it’s reassuring to see him in the top 5.

Roberto Castro barely has enough statistics to qualify for the stat cruncher with only 18 rounds of data but he could be a sneaky gpp play. He also has been around the track four times, only making one cut.

If I were to put a little more emphasis on accuracy it’s likely Jon Rahm wouldn’t show up with his poor driving ability but again, a decent contrarian play.

I’ll be heavy on Sergio Garcia this week and as much as I can barely stomach it, Paul Casey makes a nice play at hopefully low ownership after his disastrous Players Championship.

This is a great tool to mess around with and see what comes up. I know my weights will probably change here over the next 24 hours, but this is a good starting point for anyone looking to use the Stat Cruncher for the first time.

One thing, that puts us at a huge advantage is the Domination Station. If you aren’t using it to build lineups you’re crazy! Check out how it works here! Domination Station PGA Tutorial

First, let’s break down what I consider to be ‘chalk’.  Let’s look at each price range and what is considered chalk there. (DK pricing is used for a guide)

Over 10K: >25% Anything over 25% in this range is considered chalk, and could even go down to 20%. Some weeks ownership is pretty evenly spread in this range, and some weeks one player gathers all the ownership and becomes a Chalk Donkey.

9K: >20% Again, any time over 20% of the field is on a player in this price range we would consider them a chalk donkey.

8K to 7.5K: 15%-20% This is a little trickier in this range, but I consider anyone over 15% chalk. DK has been jamming a bunch of guys in around 7.5k lately and we’ve seen guys get up there in ownership.

Below 7.5K: >10%  Players are priced here for a reason, and oftentimes one or two become what I call DFS Darlings and garner a ton of ownership While you usually have to eat this chalk in cash, you want to swerve it any chance you can in GPP’s.

One thing to remember as you construct lineups, players are ‘Chalk Donkeys’ for a reason, they are perceived to be good plays. Don’t fade the ‘Chalk Donkeys’ just because they are going to be highly owned. Very rarely does no chalk hit, and often times you find some of these ‘Chalk Donkeys’ in GPP winning lineups. Fading the chalk is strictly a leverage play, in that if that player plays poorly you are in much better shape not playing them. 

Who are this week’s DFS Chalk Donkeys?

In this section, each price range’s (Above 9K, 7.5k-9K, and Below 7.5K) Chalk Donkey will be identified, and a few pivots will be offered. I use DraftKings pricing since that is where I usually play, but their pricing is usually similar to FanDuel and when a player pops as a value on one site but not another I’ll make sure to mention it.

It’s important to remember that just because someone is going to be highly owned, doesn’t mean that they are a bad play, but if we can gain an advantage on the field by fading a player owned by 25% or more, typically that’s the right move. There are typically 156 golfers in an event (though only 134 this week, making it more important to get 6/6) and only 70 and ties make the cut. Essentially you have to look at the ownership of a player and decide if the odds of him missing the cut are equal to or greater than the ownership. If that’s the case then a fade is typically the right play.

In a no-cut event, it takes on a little bit of a different spin. A chalky player at the top of the salary scale you have to ask yourself a few questions. Say he’s going to be 25% owned. “Is he going to win?” and “are the odds of him winning better than 1 in 4, equal to, or less?” If it’s less then I think a fade is in order. The same conversation can be had with chalk at the lower salary range. Will he be in the top half of the field? Will he be in the top 20? Etc.

And now, here my friends, are this weeks’ Chalk Donkeys:

Above 9K Chalk

Dustin Johnson: DK $11,500/FD $12,600

Projected GPP ownership: 21%-24% 

DJ tees it up at the Copperhead course for the first time since 2010 and will likely be the chalk of the slate coming in in the low 20% in most GPP’s. And that is not even CLOSE to high enough ownership.

Here’s how DJ ranks for each of the types of holes this week at Copperhead in terms of fantasy points gained. He’s number one in 8 of them, and top 26 in the rest. Let’s see how he looks against the 2nd best player in the field.

Just exponentially better. We haven’t seen this big of a gap in a tournament in a long time between the number one player and the number two. And actually, if we look at the 2nd best projected (Webb Simpson) it’s even more pronounced.

Over his last ten rounds, he has AVERAGED 1.9 strokes-gained approach. He’s only had three negative rounds in his last twenty. It’s simply unheard of. He’s hitting his irons so well that he can literally run away and hide this week if he’s on his game.

The reality is that you need to make a stand on DJ here. The price tag isn’t even that bad. When we’ve seen players look like this in the past in weaker fields they have been over 12k. I recommend doubling up the field in your DJ ownership at a MINIMUM. Meaning that you have at least 50% DJ in your lineups this week. That’s a strong stand, but given the circumstances, I think it is absolutely warranted this week.

Above 9K Pivot: 

Louis Oosthuizen: DK $9,300/FD $10,300

Projected GPP Ownership: Under 5% 

This is the definition of a GPP game theory play. Louis Oosthuizen, a world-class golfer with a major championship and runner ups at all four majors, is projecting as under 5% owned. Has he been playing great lately? No. Is he a great course fit? You could argue that he is but it’s not super clear. Is he overpriced? Probably. But all of that is working to drive down his ownership. And as we know, winning a GPP is about finding that low owned pivot that helps push you over the edge.

There is really nothing here that gets me super excited other than Louis’ results at this event in the past with a 16th and 7th place finish in his last two trips to Copperhead.

I do think that Louis is due for some positive regression in his golf game, and we’ve also seen him come into this tournament on poor form and do well. Which seems to be a trend for some guys. Last year he had lost over 15 strokes approach in the previous 3 tournaments and came out and gained over 4 here for a 16th place finish. He then went right back out the next week and lost strokes approach on his way to an MC at the API. The stretch of tournaments leading up to here is really just ones that he’s struggled at in the past and continued to do so this year.

Again, this isn’t something that is going to make you feel great. If you feel warm and fuzzy about your lineups its probably a bad thing. But in a larger GPP you need to make some strong plays on ownership and Louis fits the bill here perfectly for that. Warm and fuzzy lineups min-cash. Uncomfortable lineups win GPP’s. Do you think guys last week felt comfortable with Jonny Vegas and Jim Furyk in their lineups together? Probably not.

Other highly owned players (over 15%): Sergio Garcia, Jason Day, Dustin Johnson, Patrick Reed, Jim Furyk, Webb Simpson, Jon Rahm, Jim Furyk 

7.5K – 9K Chalk

Brandt Snedeker: DK $8400/FD $9,800

Projected GPP Ownership: 22%-25% 

Oofta. That escalated quickly. One good tournament and Brandt Snedeker is now the chalk of the slate. The last two tournaments he has been under 4% owned. Has a good Players Championship and boom, quite possibly the chalkiest player of the slate.

This is an entirely narrative-based play in the DFS community. Brandt had a good Players, got lots of TV time, and they talked about how he has changed coaches and really found his swing. He’s a good player, but in no world should he be this highly owned, regardless of strength of the field.

The claim that he’s a good course fit and crushes Copperhead isn’t real. He’s finished 31, 53, 58, 29, 4, 46 here and he ranks 44th in projected course score. For whatever reason, Snedeker is one of those players that gets buzz and it builds. The same thing happened at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am earlier this year where he missed the cut at just under 25% owned in GPP.

If we’re going to try to find positives with Brandt here, it’s that he’s pretty good around the greens. Everything else outside of last week is just ‘meh’ . If you wanna play him in cash go ahead I think that’s fine, but the buzz he’s creating throughout the industry is insane and its a HARD fade for me at this ownership.

7.5K – 9K Pivot:

Adam Hadwin: DK $7200/FD $9100

Projected GPP Ownership: 5%-8%

I’ve been on Adam Hadwin for weeks. Wanted to play him last week, and when I heard from a reporter that I’m friendly with that he had been dealing with the flu and had barely practiced all week I jumped off. He ended up really struggling and missing the cut. I’ll chalk that up to being sick and go right back to him this week as he has been playing really good golf. He’s a former winner here and returned last year to a 12th place finish.

What I love about Hadwin is his ability to avoid the big number. He very rarely makes a double bogey. He also can fill up the cup with birdies when he putts well.

A stat that may surprise some is that Hadwin is 11th this year in Strokes Gained Off the Tee. He’s just so solid off the tee and puts himself in great positions all over the course.

He struggles a bit on long par 3’s, but it clearly hasn’t been an issue for him here over the years. Had he ended up being healthy last week and played well I think he would be cutting into Snedeker’s ownership big time. Hadwin is an excellent ballstriker and this is a great course for him. If he’s healthy (which I assume he is) I think he finds himself in the hunt here again.

Other highly owned players (over 12%): Sungjae Im, Russell Knox, Jason Kokrak (Mega-Chalk by the way, eat it) Ryan Moore 

Check out my Preview Article for my full betting card!

–> UpNorth’s PGA Preview – Valspar Championship <–

Below 7.5K

Only two players down here should crack the 10% mark in Roberto Castro and Joaquin Niemann (both good plays) and that means you can likely get guys with high upside at low ownership down here.  I’m going to highlight a couple of players down here that I think can help win you a gpp.

Denny McCarthy: DK $7100/FD $8100 

Denny really pops for me this week because of his excellent par 3 scoring. He’s been playing some pretty good golf recently and is due some positive regression with his putter.

Joel Dahmen: DK $7400/FD $7700

I really thought he would higher owned this week coming off the nice performance at the Players but he’s looking to be in the mid-single digits in ownership. Rates out as 44th in my stat model, and should be a solid play to make the cut. He’s coming off a stretch of four missed cuts in a row coming into the players but has shown improvement each week. Seems to be finding his groove a bit. Typically when he gets hot he goes on runs of a couple of weeks where he’s in contention. If he putts a little better he’ll be right there and I like that these greens are a bit easier to read and putt on. Excellent Fanduel play at that price.

Adam Schenk: DK $6900/FD $8700

Just slowly putting together a really solid season. Has three straight top 30 finishes. Has been crushing it with his irons and is only being held back a bit by his off the tee game. Being able to club down here and find fairways will be huge for him. Hits a ton of greens in regulation. Has struggled a bit around the greens as well but has shown marked improvement in his last ten rounds. One of my favorite cheap options.

Max Homa: DK $6300/FD $7800

My favorite super cheap option this week is Max Homa. Homa has made four straight cuts on the PGA tour with finishes of 20, 37, 10, and 26. He’s been getting it done with superb iron play and his distance off the tee. (he’s also been putting really well which makes me a bit wary but at $6300 you can’t have it all). Max is fairly long and his distance off the tee should benefit him here as he’s able to hit shorter clubs off the tee into some of these narrow fairways. While ‘new’ to the tour again this year he has played here twice before on a previous stint in the big leagues and that should benefit him this week.

Other low owned cheap players I’m interested in: Trey Mullinax, Adam Svensson, Julian Etulain, Jonas Blixt 

GPP Core:

Want to know who is my GPP Core? How bout Taco or Brody’s? Check it out here on our brand new Coaches Notes page.

Final Thoughts: 

This is a really fun week, but know that there is some carnage here. The pricing is much tighter this week and you’ll likely have to feel a bit uncomfortable with your lineups. I really think you need to make a stand on DJ and then make sure the rest of your builds are fairly balanced.

As ownership trends start to finalize this week, I’ll post some updates in my coaching channel and make sure to join in and ask any questions. This is going to be a great week and I can’t wait to see some of those green screens and winning lineups!

Join us in our coaching channels this week and let’s win some money! I’ll be there off and on all week, but will be in helping build lineups from 9:00 to 10:00 PM CST on Wednesday night getting you guys ready to take down some huge GPP’s!

Also, give me a follow on twitter @dfsupnorth as I’ll be posting updates there as well as useful retweets leading up to this weeks event!