Good morning to you beautiful people out there in DFS land! You have managed to find yourself in a great spot here at DFS Army. I look forward to providing you with analysis and picks throughout this 2018-2019 CBB season! Remember, if I mention a player as a cash game play they most likely are OK for GPP play. Let’s take a look at what games are on the slate for DraftKings and Fanduel. The KenPom score projections are in parenthesis.
Kansas (74) vs Oklahoma St (67)
Michigan St (72) vs Indiana (64)
LSU (76) vs Alabama (74)
Syracuse (72) vs Wake Forest (64) – DK Only
NC State (72) vs Florida St (78)
Penn St (59) vs Wisconsin (68)
Mississippi (74) vs Arkansas (75)
Iowa St (70) vs Texas (71)
Ohio St (63) vs Purdue (72)
Pittsburgh (50) vs Virginia (71)
Kentucky (71) vs Tennessee (73)
Butler (65) vs Villanova (72)
West Virginia (66) vs Oklahoma (77) – FD Only
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KANSAS vs OKLAHOMA ST
Kansas is still without L.Vick, but they recently got M.Garrett back. All that really does for us is confuse us on how the guard rotation and usage will play out. The two plays that really stand out for me are D.Lawson and Dotson for the Jayhawks. Dedric Lawson is priced under 10K while coming off of a 50 fantasy point performance. Oklahoma St has struggled against players like him this season and the last time these two met he went for 44 fantasy points. Dotson has been one of my favorite guards to play for a few weeks now and while I am a little worried about his loss of usage with Garrett back, Kansas has to rely on him if they want to extend their string of Big-12 regular-season titles. Agbaji has excellent GPP upside, however, I think he is the one affected the most with Garrett’s return. The only other guy I am considering is Lightfoot as he is another post player who could give OK State some trouble. The problem is I could see his minutes getting squeezed at points with both teams going smaller.
Oklahoma St is a total mess at this point in the season. They are basically running a 6 man rotation and forcing guys to play through foul trouble. The 6th man is a PG type player so should Anei or McGriff find themselves in foul trouble, we could end up seeing a 4 guard lineup out on the floor. The best way for OK State to pull the upset is via the 3 and picking up turnovers. I do think the entire starting lineup is in play for the Cowboys. My preferred plays are Waters III and Dziagwa. Both of these guys can get hot from three and rack up points quickly. Waters is coming off of making 7 threes against TT, 4 of which came in the final minute of regulation.
5 STAR Plays: D.Lawson, T.Dziagwa
4 STAR Plays: D.Dotson, L.Waters III
CASH Plays: I.Likekele
GPP Darts: M.Lightfoot, C.McGriff, O.Agbaji
FADES: M.Garrett, Q.Grimes
MICHIGAN ST vs INDIANA
Michigan St comes into this game off of a rivalry win @ Michigan so I have my worries about them here. The only thing that might have their attention is the fact that Indiana went into the Spartans home and beat them earlier. With the injuries that MSU has dealt with this season, it makes them pretty easy to figure out. Winston is their do-it-all leader on the floor and he is in an excellent spot in this game. McQuaid dealing with an ankle injury is less than ideal and might lead me to fade him. I do think that Goins or Tillman have the ability to put a monster game in this one as Goins went for 50 fantasy points the last time they faced off.
Indiana is coming off of a Double-OT win and really need to keep winning to help their postseason resume. The problem here is I do not like much for Indiana. I think Langford is in the best spot while somebody out of Morgan, Phinisee and D.Davis/J.Smith will probably pay off. Michigan St’s defense is pretty solid across the board so there aren’t all that many weaknesses to attack.
5 STAR Plays: C.Winston
4 STAR Plays: K.Goins, X.Tillman, R.Langford
CASH Plays: R.Phinisee
GPP Darts: D.Davis, M.McQuaid
FADES: N/A
LSU vs ALABAMA
LSU beat Alabama earlier in the season in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score indicated. LSU is getting Tremont Waters back for this game after he sat out the previous two games with an illness. The best way for LSU to attack Alabama is with 2 point shooting, defensive rebounds, and blocked shots. With that knowledge, I think the best players to use are Naz Reid and Bigby-Williams. Guys like Waters, Smart and Mays are GPP plays that I probably won’t be using on this slate.
Alabama is a tough team to figure out, which is frustrating because this game has one of the highest totals on the slate. LSU has been solid enough on D that we really can only look at utilizing 2-point shooting against them. I think the best match-up is D.Hall’s, however, he just disappears so much that I just can’t recommend him with much confidence at this point. I will be using Kira Lewis Jr in some GPPs and will consider H.Jones if Ingram is out.
5 STAR Plays: K.Bigby-Williams
4 STAR Plays: N.Reid, K.Lewis Jr, D.Hall
CASH Plays:
GPP Darts: J.Smart, T.Waters, H.Jones, R.Norris
FADES: S.Mays
SYRACUSE vs WAKE FOREST – DK Only
This game has the makings of a yawner for DFS purposes. Syracuse has a chance to put up some pretty nice stat lines, however, they are far from a safe team to target. WF allows teams to score from everywhere while also adding assists, blocks, and steals. I will be looking at getting my Syracuse exposure with the backcourt in this one.
Wake is coming off of a somewhat surprising win against a mediocre Miami squad. This game just doesn’t seem like a good one for Wake as they are horrible at shooting the three and that is what Syracuse’s zone forces you to do. The problem is the guys that we would consider are priced a little higher than I would like. Childress and C.Brown are the two guys that I might consider for GPP purposes with maybe a share or two of Hoard or a punt like Okeke if Sarr is out.
5 STAR Plays: T.Battle
4 STAR Plays: E.Hughes
CASH Plays: F.Howard, C.Brown
GPP Darts: M.Dolezaj, B.Childress, J.Hoard
FADES: O.Brissett
NC STATE vs FLORIDA ST
With FSU having a pretty elite interior defense, we want to utilize the guards from NC State that can knock down threes while also able to get to the FT line. I think this is a spot for M.Johnson and will definitely have a bunch of exposure. I like using Bryce on the road so he fits in this match-up as well.
For FSU, it’s all about the post players for me. They should be able to dominate NC State in the paint so Koumadje and Kabengele are definitely high on my list of plays. NC State also sends teams to the FT line a TON, so Forrest and Mann are certainly usable options. I prefer Mann as Forrest tends to be non-existent on the offensive end at times.
5 STAR Plays: M.Johnson, M.Kabengele
4 STAR Plays: CJ Bryce
CASH Plays: D.Daniels, T.Mann
GPP Darts: B.Beverly, C.Koumadje, D.Vassell
FADES: T.Dorn
PENN ST vs WISCONSIN
This game has a zero rating on my excitability scale! For Penn St, their offense is basically one player and that player is certainly in play, however, he has been priced up quite a bit. Stevens is doing basically everything for PSU at this point in the season. If you wanted to get a little crazy for GPP purposes, I think Watkins has an attractive upside to go with an uber ugly floor and Wheeler has been playing decently well of late.
For Wisconsin, Happ could win you a GPP on this slate as he took 24 shots in the first match-up between these two teams. Normally I really like to take 3-point shooting against PSU, so Davison and Trice are definitely in play for GPPs even though this game has a pretty low total overall.
5 STAR Plays: B.Davison
4 STAR Plays: E.Happ, L.Stevens
CASH Plays: D.Trice, J.Wheeler
GPP Darts: M.Watkins
FADES: N.Reuvers, J.Reaves
MISSISSIPPI vs ARKANSAS
I could see this being a letdown spot for Mississippi after their devastating home loss to Tennessee on Wednesday. As usual with Mississippi its all about the main guards, T.Davis and B.Tyree. I think a couple of GPP punts are Stevens and Olejniczak. Olejniczak’s size is going to be needed to take on Gafford so he should see a slight uptick in minutes, but he does provide some foul risk. Stevens has been playing solidly and is priced at a point where all we really need is around 20 to feel good.
Arkansas is ALWAYS tough to figure out. On paper, this seems like a very positive spot for Gafford at home, however, I do have some worries about not getting enough usage with the 3 point shooters firing away. The only other two I have interest in are I.Joe and D.Sills. Joe is a streaky shooter and could get hot and go off from 3 in this game, while Sills has found himself in the starting lineup recently and offers us punt value.
5 STAR Plays: B.Tyree
4 STAR Plays: T.Davis, D.Gafford, I.Joe
CASH Plays: B.Stevens, D.Sills
GPP Darts: D.Olejniczak
FADES: D.Shuler, M.Jones
IOWA ST vs TEXAS
This game excites me more than you would think considering its mediocre total. I want Iowa St three-point shooting against Texas here after the Longhorns lost a tight one against Baylor the other day. Horton-Tucker is my favorite play as he has been somebody I have targeted away from home. He gets a boost thanks to his steals as well, which is a nice thing in a match-up against some inexperienced ball handlers. My second favorite play is going to be Wigginton as he is another that seems to perform better away from home this season.
Texas is going to garner some ownership after a lot of people watched them put up a bunch of points against Baylor this week. While I think some of the players are definitely in play, I want to pump the brakes slightly here. We need to learn the status of Osetkowski before we can really decipher how much value Texas offers us. Febres is going to be extremely popular, but for good reason. I like Ramey and Coleman as tournament plays with Hepa being a possible punt if Osetkowski is out.
5 STAR Plays: T.Horton-Tucker
4 STAR Plays: L.Wigginton, M.Shayok, Ramey, Coleman
CASH Plays: N.Weiler-Babb, Febres
GPP Darts: C.Lard, Hepa
FADES: T.Haliburton (DK), M.Jacobson, Osetkowski (If he plays), Hayes
OHIO ST vs PURDUE
I am really excited for this spot for Ohio St as Kaleb Wesson was suspended, which opens up some minutes. Justin Ahrens has been lights out and is too cheap at 3200 on DK. My favorite GPP punt play is J.Ledee as he could see a big increase with the loss of Wesson. Nothing is confirmed so there is a LOT of volatility to the play, but I believe in the kid’s upside. Andre Wesson is definitely in play for GPPs with a presumed usage bump.
Purdue has been lead by Haarms lately and that is just insane to be mentioning. He is definitely a strong play against a K.Wesson-less OSU team. I think this is a great GPP spot for Carsen Edwards to bounce back. Guys like Eastern and Cline are guys I would consider for GPP play, but they don’t excite me.
5 STAR Plays: J.Ahrens
4 STAR Plays: A.Wesson, C.Edwards, M.Haarms
CASH Plays: N.Eastern
GPP Darts: J.Ledee
FADES: K.Young
PITTSBURGH vs VIRGINIA
I have basically zero interest in this game. Pittsburgh is going to struggle mightily against Virginia. Virginia guys do not excite me because they should be able to coast to a 25 point victory. Somebody from Virginia is going to come out on fire in the first half, the problem is the second half is going to be slow and lack fantasy points.
5 STAR Plays:
4 STAR Plays:
CASH Plays: D.Hunter, M.Diakite
GPP Darts: J.Huff
FADES: All of Pittsburgh
KENTUCKY vs TENNESSEE
This game is going to be extremely exciting to watch and should be pretty high scoring, the problem is trying to figure out where it all comes from as both teams are somewhat balanced. Kentucky has obvious value in Richards and Montgomery, of which I prefer Richards as the cheaper option. I think we can fade Washington and look to use Herro, K.Johnson, and Hagans over him in getting our UK exposure. With that said, he certainly has monster upside.
With UT, I am not sure we need to pay up to Williams and I feel like Bowden is just not usable right now. That really leaves me with Schofield and Turner as the two I want to target. Alexander should play but doesn’t seem to have much for upside.
5 STAR Plays: L.Turner
4 STAR Plays: T.Herro
CASH Plays: N.Richards
GPP Darts: A.Hagans, A.Schofield
FADES: Washingon, Williams
BUTLER vs VILLANOVA
This is another game that I really have little interest in. Butler just does not excite me at all and I am going to recommend a full fade with them being on the road here. I just do not see any upside in anybody at this point.
Nova coming off of a hard-fought win could come out really flat or could be inspired and spank Butler. Booth and Paschall are always in play for me. Bey has nice GPP upside and Gillespie is capable of getting hot at any time. Samuels is going to be a very popular punt play and because of that, I am recommending a fade. He certainly makes sense but I feel like last game was an extreme outlier.
5 STAR Plays:
4 STAR Plays: Booth, Paschall
CASH Plays: Samuels
GPP Darts: Bey
FADES: BUTLER
WEST VIRGINIA vs OKLAHOMA – FD Only
I highly recommend getting exposure to this game. WVU showed us what they are capable of with a shorter rotation while allowing their young kids to just play through mistakes. Pricing on FD is very nice on them so I can see you using 2-4 of them in every lineup you make. McCabe, Haley, West, and Culver are the plays for me with McCabe and Culver being the most popular.
Oklahoma should win this game so we should have an interest in them, however, I really only like Doolittle. I understand using James in a game stack, but they lack exciting pieces around these two. I have been using Doolittle for nearly 2 months already and I am not ready to stop yet.
5 STAR Plays: D.Culver
4 STAR Plays: K.Doolittle
CASH Plays: McCabe, Haley, West
GPP Darts: C.James
FADES: Manek, Bieniemy
Make sure you tune in to the slack channel to get my updates as news comes out! We will be discussing CBB all afternoon and evening long. I will be updating my Coaches-Notes throughout the day and we will discuss what injuries we need to monitor and what they mean to our construction. I will also be posting my cores for each site in slack!