Good morning to you beautiful people out there in DFS land! You have managed to find yourself in a great spot here at DFS Army. I look forward to providing you with analysis and picks throughout this 2018-2019 CBB season! Remember, if I mention a player as a cash game play they most likely are OK for GPP play. Let’s take a look at what games are on the slate for DraftKings and Fanduel. The KenPom score projections are in parenthesis.
Xavier (65) vs Villanova (71) – FD Only
Iowa St (66) vs Kansas St (65)
Florida St (59) vs Virginia (68)
Alabama (64) vs Kentucky (74)
Minnesota (67) vs Purdue (75)
SMU (63) vs Cincinnati (69)
Colorado (64) vs Washington (66)
Duke (83) vs UNC (81)
Seton Hall (69) vs Marquette (74)
West Virginia (69) vs Kansas (80)
Wichita St (69) vs Temple (71)
Mississippi St (73) vs Tennessee (78)
Iowa (67) vs Michigan (75)
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XAVIER vs VILLANOVA – FD Only
This spot will most likely go overlooked and that is something to take into consideration. I think both teams have a couple of guys that make sense in this spot. Xavier played pretty well yesterday and got a huge contribution from Hankins. I like Hankins quite a bit again today to go along with Marshall. I want to like Jones but he has been so inconsistent that I think I need to pass on him here.
For Nova, I like the usual suspects in Booth, Paschall, and Samuels. Gillespie makes sense because of his ability to get hot and stay hot. I really think that stacking Paschall and Samuels together in this spot offers a really nice floor to go with solid upside. I want to take the savings between Booth and Paschall.
Preferred Plays: Hankins, Paschall, Samuels
IOWA ST vs KANSAS ST
This spot is not ideal for ISU and I am tempted to completely fade them. I do think a couple of Cyclones offer us GPP upside, it’s just the fact that I think they end up not hitting value way more times than they do hit it. Wigginton would be the top of the list for me with Horton-Tucker or Shayok being behind him as an upside play for GPPs.
Kansas St has 5 guys that I will be getting plenty of exposure to in this one. Brown is a solid cash play and should get you 26-30 while guys like Sneed, Stokes, Diarra, and Mawien make a ton of sense for GPPs and are all coming off of solid performances. I lean towards relying on Sneed and Mawien a bit more than the others as I really like guys playing the 4 or 5 against ISU.
Preferred Plays: Wigginton, Sneed, Mawien, Diarra
FLORIDA ST vs VIRGINIA
Aside from a GPP share of Kabengele and Koumadje, I want zero exposure to FSU against Virginia tonight. I have been targeting Virginia with bigs all season long, which is why Kabengele and Koumadje interest me for GPP purposes. I will not go overboard with either of them and may truly stick to 1 share of each.
For Virginia, we can use Jerome, Hunter, and Guy in just about any format at this point. Jerome offers us a pretty solid floor, even when his shot is off. Hunter has been so-so the last couple of games but has immense upside while Guy is just on a shooting tear and I think we need to ride the wave with him. Diakite has been pretty bad recently but I always love his GPP upside.
Preferred Plays: Jerome, Guy
ALABAMA vs KENTUCKY
Alabama tweaked it’s starting lineup yesterday with success so it will be interesting to see if they stick to that in this spot. We need to see the starting lineup but if it is the same as yesterday, I want exposure to Reese and G.Smith for sure. Guys like Mack and Lewis intrigue me as GPP darts because of their upsides.
Travis is said to be returning for the UK tonight and even though he is only going to play in a few minute spurts, it muddies things up with Richards and Montgomery. I generally love to target the upside of Kentucky but I do not see myself hurrying to plug in multiple pieces. With that being said, Washington and Herro are solid GPP options. The two guys that I will try and get some shares of are Johnson and Hagans. For the record, if you want to target a cheap Kentucky forward I would lean towards Montgomery.
Preferred Plays: G.Smith, K.Johnson, Hagans
MINNESOTA vs PURDUE
For Minnesota, it comes down to using two players. Both Murphy and Coffey are definitely in play with Coffey being the safer of the two with how he has been playing down the stretch. If Minnesota is going to pull off the upset, they will need both players at the top of their games. Murphy played pretty solidly yesterday so I look to see him continue it in this one. Oturu could be an interesting GPP option as a contrarian play over the other two.
I think that Edwards makes an interesting GPP play even though I do not see myself looking to use him as his ceiling has been pretty low recently. As much as I hate to admit it, Haarms is definitely in play in all formats as he has been extremely reliable. I have a decent amount of interest in guys like Eastern and Eifert. Both have been playing pretty well over the last month and should offer a decent floor.
Preferred Plays: Coffey, Haarms, Eastern
SMU vs CINCINNATI
This is a pretty tough spot for SMU so I am not overly excited about using any of them tonight. Guys like McMurray, Mike, and Chargois offer us enough upside to be in consideration. McMurray is the guy that I feel most comfortable using as he played pretty well in two match-ups against Cincinnati this season and has been extremely safe of late.
The only player that I will be actively trying to get shares of is Cumberland. He has GPP winning upside as his usage rates are through the roof on a team that struggles to score at times. I can be talked into Scott or Brooks, with Brooks being my preferred interior option because he is the cheaper of the two.
Preferred Plays: McMurray, Cumberland
COLORADO vs WASHINGTON
This spot doesn’t excite me for Colorado, even though I think there are a couple of guys who could have solid games. Bey is somebody with immense upside but has struggled the last two days. Wright IV seems pretty safe for cash games but the match-up is difficult. Gatling and Schwartz are two guys that make sense because they aren’t too pricey but offer us 5-6x upside in this game.
I think Washington has a couple of guys that are safe options and a couple of guys that could be GPP difference makers. The safe options are Nowell and Thybulle. Both guys have a pretty high floor to go along with upside. Dickerson and Crisp are guys that are capable of going off and returning 6x+ for your GPP lineups.
Preferred Plays: Schwartz, Thybulle
DUKE vs UNC
With Zion’s return, it makes predicting Duke slightly more difficult at this point. I really think Zion is the best play on the slate, it’s just really tough to pay that price tag. Barrett is a GPP play but I would rather spend up to Zion. Tre Jones is probably a cash play as he seems to have a solid floor even with shooting the ball terribly. I think that DeLaurier is my favorite option on Duke tonight.
Maye is going to be somewhat popular because of his numbers against Duke this season. I think he has GPP upside but I think he is far from safe going up against Zion. Coby White has upside but the individual match-up stinks as Tre Jones plays legit defense. Johnson is going to be the one that I have the most exposure to for UNC as I love his ability to either knock down threes or get to the rim.
Preferred Plays: Zion, DeLaurier, Johnson
SETON HALL vs MARQUETTE
Seton Hall has been the Myles Powell show and that should continue today (as long as he is healthy). Powell did turn his ankle last in the game yesterday so we need to make sure all is good for him. Mamukelashvili had one really strong and one really bad game against Marquette this season so I am going to go back to him for GPPs as I love his upside. McKnight makes sense for GPPs as his price has come down quite a bit, this could be an excellent spot to jump on. I still have GPP dart interest in Rhoden as he has shown us solid upside, the minutes are the thing that makes him tough to trust.
For Marquette, it is all about Markus Howard and Sam Hauser. I love the idea of pairing Powell and Howard in this one as we could get an elite PG battle on our hands. Hauser is somebody that I will continue to rely on when Marquette plays in road games. I love his floor and he offers us a pretty solid upside. I love a game stack in this spot, the problem is everybody we want is a bit pricey.
Preferred Plays: Powell, Mamukelashvili, Howard, S.Hauser
WEST VIRGINIA vs KANSAS
Pick a WVU starter, any starter, at this point and just plug them in. The way that starting 5 is playing is insane considering how bad WVU had been for much of the season. We prefer to target bigs against Kansas so I want a bunch of exposure to D.Culver and Matthews Jr. I do have reservations about Matthews having to deal with D.Lawson but he is the cheapest of the starting 5. McCabe‘s price actually went down after yesterday’s game so that is interesting even though I think he has the toughest match-up in terms of a defender. I am going to continue to ride Haley as he has taken his game to another level. West offers us upside but seems to be really raw on the offensive end. Konate is said to be healthy enough to return so if we hear that he is going to see 10+ minutes we have to consider him an option at min price.
Kansas is an interesting team as the guard play has been really spotty with the return of Garrett to the rotation. With that said, Dotson is absolutely in play and might be a must play over on FD at $5300. Dedric Lawson is always in play but I may end up with zero shares as there are plenty of options to spend on. McCormack is a near lock at his price point with how he has been playing so far. He is going to need to stay out of foul trouble in order to deal with Culver.
Preferred Plays: McCabe, Haley, Dotson, McCormack
WICHITA ST vs TEMPLE
When I first saw this game I thought I was going to be interested in playing a bunch of guys and now that I look around, I have to think I may only take one-off shots. McDuffie seems pretty safe for our cash games but I do not know if he has the upside on this slate. I have been a big fan of Dennis and Burton and will consider them in a lot of the things that I do but I wonder if they have been priced to where their ceiling is where we hope isn’t their ceiling. I really do not mind Midtgaard as a GPP dart option as he has monster per minute numbers on the season.
Temple is generally all about Alston and Rose with some help from Pierre-Louis and Moorman. Alston is going to be a low owned stud who could pay off handsomely in GPPs but I just prefer others over $9K on DK. Rose is one of my favorite players in CBB and he is capable of getting hot and approaching 50 fantasy points.
Preferred Plays: Dennis, Rose
MISSISSIPPI ST vs TENNESSEE
MSU is a solid team with a pretty short rotation for the most part. I really like the upside of guys like Q.Weatherspoon, Peters, and Perry and the floor of Carter. This is a pretty big spot for them to make a statement and I can see Weatherspoon and Carter taking over this game. With that said, Perry is always my favorite play and has monstrous upside.
I think this is an excellent G.Williams spot for the Volunteers. He is going to need help from Schofield, Bone, and Turner in order to hold off a tough MSU squad. I think Bone is my second favorite option on Tennessee has he offers us a pretty nice ceiling for our GPP lineups, while I am probably going to end up fading Turner.
Preferred Plays: Q.Weatherspoon, Perry, G.Williams
IOWA vs MICHIGAN
I have been using big men against Michigan all season long and this game will be no different for me. You can take your pick among Cook, Wieskamp, Garza, and N.Baer as they all offer us a ton of upside. Cook is the most talented but he hasn’t had a ceiling type game in a while now so I lean towards going with one of the cheaper guys. I think this game is an interesting game stack as the hammer, in a spot where people are going to ignore. Bohannon is such a streaky shooter that if he gets going he could carry Iowa to a huge upset.
Michigan gets a nice pace bump so I really like guys like Simpson, Poole, and Brazdeikis. Teske is a solid cash option as he should be able to do some work in the lane and grab a bunch of rebounds. Matthews isn’t 100% so even if he plays I expect Livers to continue to see a bunch of minutes which puts him in play. Brazdeikis is my favorite play in this game as his inside-outside game is going to give Iowa problems.
Preferred Plays: Wieskamp, Garza, Simpson, Brazdeikis
Make sure you tune in to the slack channel to get my updates as news comes out! We will be discussing CBB all afternoon and evening long. I will be updating my Coaches-Notes throughout the day and we will discuss what injuries we need to monitor and what they mean to our construction. I will also be posting my cores for each site in slack!