Good morning to you beautiful people out there in DFS land! You have managed to find yourself in a great spot here at DFS Army. I look forward to providing you with analysis and picks throughout this 2018-2019 CBB season! Remember, if I mention a player as a cash game play they most likely are OK for GPP play. Let’s take a look at what games are on the slate for DraftKings and Fanduel. The KenPom score projections are in parenthesis.
UNC Greensboro (67) vs Wofford (75)
Pepperdine (69) vs Gonzaga (92)
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UNC GREENSBORO vs WOFFORD
This is going to be an interesting game. UNCG has lost to Wofford twice this season, once by 29 and the other time by 30. One of those games was just a 6 point affair at the half while the other was a 20 point game at the half. This tells me that UNCG should struggle to put a full game together against a team that just gets hot at random times. With the emotions and everything that is on the line, I expect the game to be a bit tighter. The whole country is pulling for Wofford to win so that the bubble doesn’t get tighter for teams.
According to the season’s numbers, the best way for UNCG to attack Wofford is via the paint and the two-point shot. That is not saying a ton as UNCG shot a combined 27 of 70 from 2 in the two games. I do believe that UNCG will score more than the 43 and 50 points they scored against Wofford this season. I have a hard time recommending any UNCG player for cash, unfortunately. My preferred play is Galloway as he has the top of inside-out game that could put up solid numbers, as evidenced by the 29.75 fantasy points he put up @Wofford. If Dickey would take more shots I think I would lock him in as he cleans up the glass pretty well while sporting a 9.6% block rate to go with a 3% steal rate. I think Miller is priced a bit too high so I would prefer to go down to Alonso as he seems to be playing pretty well. Alonso did struggle mightily against Wofford this season. I have interest in Troy and Massey as GPP punt options. With it being a 2 game slate, we have to be willing to take some chances to differentiate in our GPPs.
Wofford should end up winning this one and punching their ticket to the Big Dance. Magee is a name that people have heard of and he is going to take a ton of shots in this one. UNCG gets smacked around by three-point shooting and that is Magee’s biggest weapon. He knocked down 10 threes against UNCG this season. Also, if the game ends up tight down the stretch, Magee shoots a ridiculous 94% from the FT line. On previous slates in which we have had Wofford at our disposal, I have preferred to use Jackson as I really love his game and his ability to contribute in multiple categories. With him being priced higher than Magee, I am going to end up with higher ownership on Magee. With that said, I still like Jackson for GPPs. Aluma is an interesting GPP dart because he doesn’t garner a ton of usage but is capable of grabbing offensive rebounds and getting putbacks. I really want exposure to Murphy and Hoover as they have shot a combined 118 for 246 from three on the season. Hoover is my preference of the two as he has attempted twice as many threes as Murphy has. As far as GPP punt plays, I do have a slight interest in Goodwin in this one. He either could see more minutes in a blowout or possibly due to Aluma foul trouble.
Preferred Plays: Galloway, Alonso, Magee, Hoover
PEPPERDINE vs GONZAGA
Pepperdine is coming off of a really impressive victory only to be rewarded with the chance to face Gonzaga in the semifinals. Let’s be honest, there really isn’t a way for Pepperdine to attack Gonzaga and have a real shot at winning this game. The place that Gonzaga is susceptible to allowing points is from 2-point range. While Ross is probably Pepperdine’s best player, I am not sure he is in play in this game because of how high priced he is and how close he is to the prices of the Zags best players. I wish I could figure out what to do with Kameron Edwards in this spot. If you told me he was nearly 100% and would play 25+ minutes, I would want a ton of exposure to him for just $6K. The problem is he has only been back for 3 games and has seen his minutes go from 5 to 18 to 11. As it sits right now, I want exposure to Kessler Edwards (Kameron’s brother). Kessler has really stepped up in his brother’s absence. He offers us a double-double upside, even in a difficult match-up. Smith is going to be pretty popular and I can’t fight it as he seems pretty safe for 18+ fantasy points at his modest price tag. Cooper Jr should play a bunch of minutes and offers us salary relief but lacks a monster ceiling. Guys like Dunn, Polk Jr, and Obioha could be used as GPP dart plays as they all have shown 20+ fantasy point upside.
Gonzaga should run over this Pepperdine squad so we have to think a bit about some game theory in a spot where they could easily end up resting guys. The Zags have National Championship aspirations so it would be wise to get their starters some rest whenever possible. We know that Pepperdine is pretty bad defensively but they are one of the absolute worst teams in the country against the 2. Figuring out Gonzaga is going to be the key to the night. They are loaded with talent and have 4 studs to go along with solid role players. I am going to rank the 4 studs in order of how I want to get exposure as Clarke, Hachimura, Perkins, and then Norvell Jr. Clarke brings an excellent floor to go with a monster ceiling while Hachimura offers a big-time ceiling with a much lower floor. Perkins is priced as an excellent cash option as he is $1200 cheaper than he was just a month ago. Norvell looked to be running on fumes a bit but maybe the 8+ days off will help energize him. The secondary pieces are interesting in a blowout scenario. Kispert, Crandall, and Jones are all guys I plan on having exposure to in what could end up being a 30+ point victory. Crandall is probably my preferred option of the three.
Preferred Plays: Kessler Edwards, Smith, Clarke, Perkins, Crandall
There is a showdown slate for the Gonzaga vs Pepperdine match-up, so I figured I would give some thoughts in this article for you guys! Playing around with some of the lineup options, I am really tempted to use my favorite value plays in the captain spot so that I can stack the studs from Gonzaga with either Ross or a couple of mid-range guys from Pepperdine. The prize pools for the showdown are nowhere near what they were for the UNC-DUKE match-up so I am not sure if there is much to be gained by going the MME route.
If I had to guess which studs would be lowest owned in the CAPT spot, Ross is the obvious one as he has the biggest risk. After Ross, I would list Perkins and then Norvell Jr. The obvious plays are Clarke and Hachimura while I also think Kessler Edwards is going to carry some ownership in that spot, which I actually like. As far as the punt plays go, Obioha and Polk carry a lot of risks but may be a way to differentiate your UTIL spots. I have a feeling that most people are going to go with a 5-1 or 4-2 split in favor of Gonzaga players. With that in mind, any lineup that you make that splits it 3 and 3 is going to be somewhat contrarian.
Make sure you tune in to the slack channel to get my updates as news comes out! We will be discussing CBB all afternoon and evening long. I will be updating my Coaches-Notes throughout the day and we will discuss what injuries we need to monitor and what they mean to our construction. I will also be posting my cores for each site in slack!