Welcome to the DFS Army NHL Game Break!! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game thinking about matchups and key players is the first step in our process. I’m your buddy @LowOwnedWR and you can find me out on Twitter talking hockey and football, even a little WNBA. But, you’ll really find me in our VIP coaching forums inside coaching and detailing plays and strategic hockey maneuvers in an attempt to make our members better, more fundamentally sound players. If you are looking for it, we cover it as a team! Follow me, follow us, interact with me, interact with us, we welcome it all.
NHL DFS At A Glance
The first thing I do when starting my research is look for strong teams facing weak defenses. I want the best odds I can find to tally goals. I like the old Corsi number, as it denotes any shot attempt directed towards the net. It doesn’t matter if this shot attempt goes wide, gets blocked, or finds the back of the twine. You can’t score if you don’t shoot. I also love the “High Danger” metrics. These shots come from the slot (between the dots) and off quick passes or rebounds. They are what they say they are, and teams allowing a lot of high danger chances also tend to give up goals in bunches….perfect for the DFS player to attack.
If you have questions regarding these numbers, or this chart, don’t hesitate to ask me on our coaching forums. Simply tag me (same name as my twitter name) and let’s get on the same page. First and foremost, I’m here to teach people wanting to learn the DFS side of this glorious frozen sport.
Carolina Hurricanes @ Pittsburgh Penguins
Odds: PIT -150, 6.0 o/u
Carolina Hurricanes: Carolina is a good team fighting for a playoff spot and I for one hope they get it and a win over Pittsburgh would be huge. With the return of Jordan Staal, CAR2 has played well and they remain cheap, for exposure here that is where I am going. Naked Niederreiter is the move to get CAR1 exposure with their being better options than Aho on this slate to pay up for.
5 star plays – Teravainen
4 star plays – Svechnikov, Niederreiter, Faulk, Staal
Cash viable – Svechnikov
GPP Sleeper – Staal-Svechnikov-Slavin PP2/CAR2 stack
Pittsburgh Penguins: The only line I am looking to here is PIT1. Carolina is a solid team and with Malkin still sidelined those 2nd line wingers aren’t as good as plays. On smaller slates, you’re supposed to load in your heavy line stacks and hope it is the nuts, so do not go stretching yourself thin trying to maximize your exposure, if it isn’t PIT1, move on.
5 star plays – Crosby, Guentzel
4 star plays – Rust, Schultz
Cash viable – Rust
GPP Sleeper – Bjugstad
Minnesota Wild @ Arizona Coyotes
Odds: ARZ -115, 5.5 o/u
Minnesota Wild: This game features the only two teams to score less than 10 goals in their last 10, making it hard to love. On top of that, these two teams have also not been allowing many shots, ranking in 9th and 11th respectively. Writing off the lowest owned game on a 5 game slate is risky, but when someone’s upside is only being low owned, the majority of the time they are not a good play.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – Rask, Donato
Arizona Coyotes: Only 9 goals in their last 10 and ranking 24th and 26th in shots for and high danger chances for, now is just not the time to roster the Yotes.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – Dvorak, Keller
Columbus Blue Jackets @ Buffalo Sabres
Odds: CBJ -195, 7.0 o/u
Colombus Blue Jackets: Columbus needs to win every game they can from here on out and I believe they will beat Buffalo. The Sabres have been the worst goaltending team in regard to PDO so fire me up some Blue Jackets. Panarin and Atkinson immediately jump out as the best plays. Matt Duchene has 5 points in his last 3, so going to a power play stack of Panarin, Atkinson, and Duchene is a great way to get off the BOS1 chalk if you are willing to fade it.
5 star plays – Panarin
4 star plays – Atkinson, Duchene, Savard
Cash viable – Panarin
GPP Sleeper – Bjorkstrand
Buffalo Sabres: With the Blue Jackets running Korpisalo and it being a small slate, this could be your last chance to roster a Sabre (and not feel bad about it) this season. This team is due for positive regression as they’ve had abysmal goaltending and they actually bost a positive CF% of 52.74. If I’m rostering the Sabres I am not scrapping the barrel I am going straight for the studs. Eichel, Reinhart, and Dahlin are those studs and conveniently they are all on PP1, for this game that is the stack I am going with, nothing more, nothing less.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Eichel, Reinhart, Dahlin
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – Stick with the PP1 stack
Boston Bruins @ Detroit Red Wings
Odds: BOS -200, 5.5 o/u
Boston Bruins: You shouldn’t need me to tell you that BOS1 is the cash play, but in case you do, BOS1 is the cash play. Detroit has been abysmal in every defensive stat so expect the goals to come. Pastrnak and Bergeron were both over 40% owned in the 4 game slate on Wednesday (GPP) so with only 5 today it should be safe to assume they’ll both see at least 30% in GPPs. So if the best play on the slate at uber ownership isn’t your thing you can look down to BOS2 with Krejci and Debrusk.
5 star plays – Bergeron, Marchand, Pastrnak
4 star plays – Krug, DeBrusk
Cash viable – Bergeron, Marchand, Pastrnak
GPP Sleeper – DeBrusk, Krejci
Detroit Red Wings: Boston has done a great job of limiting teams chances as of late and I do not expect for Detroit to be the ones to break that trend. On top of Boston being very sound defensively, Detroit’s offense has been dreadful. It was all fun and games rostering them against the Devils a couple of nights ago but that is the past, don’t let their performance against the least talented team in the league sway you to play them against the team with the 2nd most points in the East.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – Larkin, Bertuzzi, Mantha
Calgary Flames @ San Jose Sharks
Odds: SJ -125, 6.5 o/u
Calgary Flames: Besides the Leafs, the Sharks are the only other playoff team to rank bottom 10 in goals allowed over their last 10. Calgary arguably has the most firepower in the league and they have played like it, being the only team to score over 30 goals in their last 10. Their whole top 6 is in play but for GPPs I like the idea of paying up for their first line as most players will be going BOS1 tomorrow, giving you a chance to get them at lower ownership in an under the radar good matchup.
5 star plays – Monahan, Gaudreau
4 star plays – Tkachuk, Lindholm, Giordano
Cash viable – Frolik (Value Play)
GPP Sleeper – Neal
San Jose Sharks: The Flames shaky goaltending has steadied out as they have only allowed over 2 goals once in their last 8 games. The Sharks have lost 7 of their last 8 and I do not want to roster a stumbling team against the red hot Flames right now (and SJ is on a B2B to boot).
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – Radil (Value Play)
GPP Sleeper – none
Quick Read: NHL Cash Game Basics – Get The Fundamentals First
DFS NHL Goalies for Today:
Jaroslav Halak (BOTH)
David Rittich (GPP)
Hopefully, those pointers get you started in your research. I’m itching to talk NHL in our coaching room today, with the rest of our coaches. Join us as we begin to see DFS NHL really open up as people leave for the greener pastures of new sports! Unlock all our tools for any sport you play today…
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Let’s talk hockey…..and let’s keep your game on track the rest of the season!