Welcome to the DFS Army NHL Game Break!! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game thinking about matchups and key players is the first step in our process. I’m your buddy @LowOwnedWR and you can find me out on Twitter talking hockey and football, even a little WNBA. But, you’ll really find me in our VIP coaching forums inside coaching and detailing plays and strategic hockey maneuvers in an attempt to make our members better, more fundamentally sound players. If you are looking for it, we cover it as a team! Follow me, follow us, interact with me, interact with us, we welcome it all.
NHL DFS At A Glance
The first thing I do when starting my research is look for strong teams facing weak defenses. I want the best odds I can find to tally goals. I like the old Corsi number, as it denotes any shot attempt directed towards the net. It doesn’t matter if this shot attempt goes wide, gets blocked, or finds the back of the twine. You can’t score if you don’t shoot. I also love the “High Danger” metrics. These shots come from the slot (between the dots) and off quick passes or rebounds. They are what they say they are, and teams allowing a lot of high danger chances also tend to give up goals in bunches….perfect for the DFS player to attack.
If you have questions regarding these numbers, or this chart, don’t hesitate to ask me on our coaching forums. Simply tag me (same name as my twitter name) and let’s get on the same page. First and foremost, I’m here to teach people wanting to learn the DFS side of this glorious frozen sport.
St. Louis Blues @ New York Rangers
Odds: STL -220, 5.5 o/u
St Louis Blues: What a juicy matchup this is for St Louis, New York is abysmal in every stat category right now. STL1 should have no problem taking advantage of that making them the best cash line on the slate. For larger field GPPs, STL3 is a nice way of getting exposure against the Rangers at low ownership.
5 star plays – Tarasenko, O’Reilly
4 star plays – Schenn, Pietrangelo, Parayko
Cash viable – Tarasenko, O’Reilly, Schenn, Pietrangelo
GPP Sleeper – Bozak, Maroon, Thomas
New York Rangers: The Blues have not allowed many chances as of late and Binnington as remained solid. New York has been nothing but bad lately and I do not expect that to change against a solid Blues team.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Nashville Predators @ Pittsburgh Penguins
Odds: PIT -135, 6.0 o/u
Nashville Predators: Nashville has not been producing lately as they have only scored 16 goals in their last 10. This is an interesting spot for them because they have the D core to make the controlled exits Pittsburgh thrives off of hard to accomplish, as we saw when they played in the Stanley Cup, but with better artillery on this slate I wouldn’t be loading up on the Predators.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Subban, Arvidsson
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – Subban, Arvidsson
Pittsburgh Penguins: Pittsburgh has been on a tear even with the recent injury troubles and my favorite version of PIT1 is back together (with Bryan Rust). PIT1 has produced high danger chances at an elite rate all season and they should be able to do so again against a cold Predators team. PIT2 is hard to love with Blueger not having much NHL ice time and having to face arguably the best D core in the league.
5 star plays – Crosby, Rust
4 star plays – Guentzel, Schultz
Cash viable – Rust, Crosby, Schultz
GPP Sleeper – Bjugstad, Hornqvist
New Jersey Devils @ Detroit Red Wings
Odds: DET -135, 5.5 o/u
New Jersey Devils: The Devils without a doubt are icing the worst roster in the NHL right now. Detroit is on a B2B and have been dreadful as of late, but with better spots on this slate I would not be investing my money in the Devils.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – Zajac, Coleman
Detroit Red Wings: DET1 gets to face the worst team in the league tonight at home coming off a multi-point night for the whole line. With Pittsburgh, Vegas, St. Louis, and Calgary expected to eat a majority of the ownership, DET1 comes out with a great matchup at low ownership.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Larkin, Mantha
Cash viable – Bertuzzi (value)
GPP Sleeper – Larkin, Mantha, Bertuzzi, Kronwall, Anthanasiou
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Anaheim Ducks @ Calgary Flames
Odds: CGY -260, 6.0 o/u
Anaheim Ducks: Another bad team on this slate! Anaheim’s morning skate has not been required for over a month now and their stats reflect that. Calgary is playing like the offensive juggernaut they are which is going to make it a nightmare for the Ducks to produce. None of the signs are pointing upward for Anaheim here so I would not be looking for any exposure to them.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Calgary Flames: If this team had competent goaltending they would be my pick to come out of the west. Calgary has arguably the best forward group in the league and they have been playing like it too. The Flames have switched around their lines creating some nice value in guys like; Backlund, Frolik, Czarnik, and Ryan. I’d be looking to them to open up salary elsewhere.
5 star plays – Tkachuk, Lindholm
4 star plays – Gaudreau, Giordano
Cash viable – Backlund, Frolik, Tkachuk, Lindholm, Andersson,
GPP Sleeper – Neal, Monahan, Czarnik
Arizona Coyotes @ Colorado Avalanche
Odds: COL -155, 5.5 o/u
Arizona Coyotes: Arizona have somehow earned 10 points in their last 10 games while only scoring 10 total goals in that time frame. When a team is only averaging a goal a game you should not want to roster them, which we will not.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Colorado Avalanche: MacKinnon and Kerfoot have been solid together and I do expect them to get some good looks tonight against Arizona. Kuemper just had a shutout against Chicago but before that, it seemed as if that hot streak was cooling off, it is only so long before those high danger chances start finding their way in the net. I love Kerfoot as salary relief tonight.
5 star plays – MacKinnon
4 star plays – Kerfoot, Barrie
Cash viable – Kerfoot (value)
GPP Sleeper – Soderberg, Wilson
Minnesota Wild @ Vegas Golden Knights
Odds: VGK -180, 5.5 o/u
Minnesota Wild: Vegas has been stout as of late, especially at home, winning 7 of their last 9. Minnesota is the only team in the league to have scored less than 10 goals over their last 10 and with little goals comes little points and with little points comes not cashing.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Vegas Golden Knights: While Minnesota has scored the least amount of goals over their last 10, Vegas has scored the most. The Golden Knights have the talent to make another cup run so I also believe they have the talent to score some goals against the Wild. VGK1/2 present a lot of great value with high upside and with the field presumably favoring the Blues and Flames to Vegas, they make a perfect fit for triple ups and small tournaments.
5 star plays – Karlsson, Smith, Theodore
4 star plays – Statsny, Tuch, Schmidt, Marchessault
Cash viable – Theodore, Karlsson, Statsny
GPP Sleeper – Eakin, Stone
Quick Read: NHL Cash Game Basics – Get The Fundamentals First
DFS NHL Goalies for Today
Jordan Binnington BOTH formats (CASH GOALIE LOCK)
Matt Murray GPP
Semyon Varlamov GPP
Hopefully, those pointers get you started in your research. I’m itching to talk NHL in our coaching room today, with the rest of our coaches. Join us as we begin to see DFS NHL really open up as people leave for the greener pastures of new sports! Unlock all our tools for any sport you play today…
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