Every week on the PGA Tour a new course means a new set of challenges. This article will examine the course being played and give specific insight on some keys for the week that other previews may be overlooking. This article will also breakdown players who stand out on both FanDuel and DraftKings for Cash Game and GPP formats. Finally, I will be reviewing my picks from before and going into a deeper dive on my Cash Game team in an attempt to better my own process while hopefully helping you with yours. For more updates throughout the week follow me on twitter @_bschnarr
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pgapgaReview from last week
In this section I will break down the players I wrote up from the prior week, how they did and how I played them in my line-ups.
Dustin Johnson – DK: $11400 – T45
DJ was my favourite play of the week, I loved the idea of loading up and him compared to the rest of the field. Turns out, everyone else thought the same thing as DJ was nearly 40% owned on average across GPP’s. I was slightly above that with DJ in just over hal of my line-ups. Ultimately, this did not work out great as DJ was greatly outscored by Jason Day, and was comparable to Fleetwood and Kuchar who were available at cheaper prices.
Rest of $10k plus (Day, Finau, Fleetwood, Kuchar)
I wrote up how in the next group Day was my favourite, although he would be highly owned, followed by Fleetwood, Kuchar and then Finau. As the week went on this flipped and I liked Fleetwood more than Kuchar and found myself loading up my line-ups that did not have DJ to include Fleetwood. While I did avoid Finau, I did pretty bad with this top end group for the most part.
Low $9k (Patrick Reed, Adam Scott, Paul Casey, Chez Reavie)
My list went Reavie>Casey>Scott>Reed. As I wrote in my notes I liked Reavie the most and he became my guy in cash. I ultimately ended up off of Patrick Reed and had a bit of Reavie/Casey mixed into GPP’s. Luckily for me I was able to overcome going with Reavie over Casey in cash games and still finish in the top 50%
Jason Kokrak/Sungjae Im – DK: $8500/8400
Between a Kokrak WD and a poor performance by Sungjae this wasn’t turned out to not be the best two players to highlight. Sungjae ended with 13% ownership in GPP’s – a bit lower than I expected, but it makes sense with RCB and Brandt Snedeker priced right below him. As I wrote in my end notes, I thought Im was a consideration for cash (I ultimately ended up using him) but he was a player who you could be underweight on in GPP’s (I was) and not be concerned. I mean, is anyone really surprised to see the MC from a PGA rookie?
Chesson Hadley – DK: $7100
Hadley had a rough week to say the least. I still liked him and had some shares (under the 13.25% average ownership) but was able to build lineups I was comfortable with without having to go this low on the prices.
If you’re reading the highlighted names you would assume I did awful this week. Well, many of these guys I mentioned did not perform great quite a few guys I highlighted in the sheet and was overweight on did perform. Guys like RCB, Russell Knox & Si Woo Kim I was well overweight and saved a lot of my DJ led teams.
In this section I will point out a few things that I find interesting about the course. If you’re a member at the Army you also have Josh’s article for more extensive reasoning on what the key stats are and our Domination Station showing what stats have been the most important historically.
- The 7,332 yard par 71 sounds really long on paper. I mean, as a guy that finds 6,000+ yards difficult it’s crazy to see these top guys play so well on such long courses. Well the 7,332 yards is long the course plays much longer than that. With a 166 yard par 3, 315 yard par four and a 503 yard par five the rest of the hole have to be long to make up for it – distance off of the tee isn’t a prerequisite but it is something I will factor more so than usual.
- A loaded group of names above $9k on DraftKings makes for a very interesting GPP ownership breakdown. I think this is a week where the chalk donkey article will be absolutely critical – even above $8500, there are 20 or so guys you can make a legitimate case for and if you can find the ones that are lower owned you’ll have a huge advantage in GPP’s.
- Course History is something I will put more emphasis on this week as well.
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In this section I will discuss plays that I like/dislike and guys that I find interesting for the week. Because this article comes out on a Monday this list can change, anyone I change my mind on will be discussed later in the week in our PGA coaching channel
$10K and Above (Dechambeau, Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Dustin Johnson)
As mentioned, the top range of this tournament is more or less looking like a major with plenty of top names. At the very top my first indications are;
- With so many good names below in a deep field you really don’t need to stretch up to here in cash games (I rarely do, I know some like to be more aggressive to grab a top name)
- In GPP, we might be able to get DJ at a single digit number.
Back to the GPP thought – DJ just had an underwhelming week for the 40ish% of people who rostered him. As the highest salary, with so many top names below I could see DJ as a great GPP play. I like all of these guys as they have all been playing lights out (outside of DJ’s T46). As of now I see myself trying to match the field on the bottom four while being overweight on DJ, of course this could change throughout the week as we get more hints at where ownership will end up – make sure to check back into my notes.
$9K -$10K (Patrick Cantlay, Tony Finau, Jordan Spieth, Hideki Matsuyama, Xander Schaufelle, Tiger Woods, Bubba Watson, Phil Mickelson)
So maybe this is a few to many guys to write up in a group together. In this group you have a few guys who a really hot, a few big names and a few who have struggled that we might be able to get off of one off week. Patrick Cantlay for example is a guy im going to be monitoring for the week – he missed one cut and then WD which is obviously a concern. However, if Cantlay says he’s healthy and feeling good and everyone’s afraid to play him I have no issue going back to him. Out of this group my first thoughts were to be on Bubba, Hideki and Xander while avoiding Phil and Tiger chalk & Spieth and Tony poor play.
$7600-$7900 (Martin Laird, Cameron Champ, Jason Kokrak, Tyrell Hatton, Sungjae Im, Rafa Cabrera-Bello, Adam Hadwin, Charles Howell)
I may have skipped a few salary price points here (I’ll be sure to go over them in my final notes) but I find this range interesting. With the Low 8k not being too appealing overall I think a lot of people taking a top player and a high 8/low 9 K salary will end up with a few players in this range. You’ve got a guy with great course history in Howell who will surely be chalky in Cash and GPP and others who have shown great flashes this season. Personally, I like Cameron Champ again this week, but as I look through the list I really do like most of the list. While I will likely be underweight on Howell I can see myself having a lot of RCB/Champ/Hatton on the week. Guys like Im/Hadwin/Kokrak are also serious considerations as they should see a little less ownership and for the most part all have good game logs coming in.
Luke List – DK: $7400
T4 – CUT – T4 – CUT –T40 – CUT. If you want to win a GPP you need guys in the top ten and if you can get a $7400 salary that’s 33% on the season of doing that it sounds like a winning formula to me. List is at a course that fits his game and shouldn’t carry much ownership.
Si Woo Kim – DK: $7400
I will likely be on Si Woo in GPP’s for another week. Well he does have a very strange habit of missing the cut after a win and has shown to be much more boom/bust than most, we often see him get into a streak of good play just like most golfers. Aside from the few missed cuts Si Woo has looked pretty good this year.
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Cash Game Review
I will end each article going over my cash game line-up for the week, breaking down my plays and reflecting for the following week
The Team (3-2) Above .500 for the first time this year!
Chez Reavie – T38
Sung-Jae Im – MC
Rafa Cabrera-Bello – T22
Brandt Snedeker – MC
Russell Knox – T14
Cameron Champ – T26
Although the finishes do not look the greatest, terrific scoring performances out of RCB and Cameron Champ helped carry my team to another cash victory. As mentioned I started by locking in Reavie, from there Snedeker and Knox were also locks based on price for this format. From there I had a shortlist of players I liked for that week that included all three above that were also in my lineup, along with Paul Casey, Adam Hadwin, Scott Piercy, Nick Watney. I wrote how the cut rules have me changing my strategy in cash slightly – in a tournament with everyone guaranteed 3 rounds I felt it was more important to emphasis scoring as opposed to simply making the cut. This has me contemplating a few higher salaries but with no one priced above Paul Casey until $10K plus that I feally liked for cash I felt it was not worth spending my money on the top end player. Instead, I found myself finding scoring in other ways. I decided to roster Cameron Champ, someone who would not normally be on my radar in cash formats. The 3 rounds guaranteed minimized my miss cut concern and had me looking for a guy who could get me some scoring. From there it made a lot more sense for me to fit in RCB/Im compared to tinkering around or leaving cash on the table. I felt comfortable with my team from the beginning and was luckily pretty safely in the money on Sunday and did not really have to worry about the 4/6 with so many other teams in a similar situation.
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