Welcome to the DFS Army NHL Game Break!! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game thinking about matchups and key players is the first step in our process. I’m your buddy @Choppodong and you can find me on both Twitter and YouTube with supplemental commentary and teaching. But, you’ll really find me in our VIP coaching forums inside coaching and detailing plays and strategic hockey maneuvers across all our main sports. If you are looking for it, we cover it! Follow me, watch me, interact with me, I welcome it all.
NHL DFS Matchup Rankings L10 Games
Last 10 games sample size. Home teams in white, away in gray. GF = Goals For, GA = Goals Against. MU Score is a combined metric showing how one matchup tonight compares to the others on paper. Green is good, red is bad. We are looking for the best matchups of teams scoring goals facing teams allowing goals. Not exactly rocket science, so don’t overthink it. PPMU is another telling metric, but I save that one for VIPs. Just ask me in our coaching forums…
My plan is to describe the games some and drop quality players in these lists. You will get my player pool (VIPs might get bonus plays in our coaching forums later). My cash players are those I would happily use in head-to-head formats, 5050 contests, small leagues, and even some larger leagues. They will anchor my lineups in all formats and contain a lot of value plays and/or punts. The core gets you to the dance. The slightly funky plays off your core push you into the gpp money. Your core is everything! Even gpp-only players need a core of solid production to build from.
Toronto Maple Leafs @ New York Islanders
Odds: NYI -110, 6 leaning under
Toronto played last night, and I’m not usually a fan of back to back nights. However, it’s Toronto and they are just playing too well on such a limited slate for me to get too hung up on some fancy play fade. They might disappoint (the NYI defense is no joke), but so might anyone else on this slate that is rather devoid of premium matchups tonight. I favor the Matthews line on the road and the Tavares line at home, but any name below is in play. And, the list is long. Goalie – I want a bigger favorite.
5 star plays – Matthews (C), Tavares (C)
4 star plays – Rielly (D), Kapanen (W), Marner (W), Johnsson (W), Hyman, Marleau (W), Nylander (W), Muzzin (D)
Cash gamers – not sure I trust many for cash with the defensive matchup, but Johnsson has been very consistent lately.
GPP Sleeper – TOR2 on the road…..but lower expectations at a gpp winner and keep your exposure limited.
New York isn’t much of an offense. They love lower scoring games, which isn’t great for DFS NHL. Mostly one-offs here for me. Goalie – probably not against TOR, but catching them on a back to back might help your shutout chances….and you’ll need a shutout to nut the slate with the goalie.
5 star plays – Pulock (D)
4 star plays – Nelson (C), Czikas (W), Bailey (W)
Cash gamers – Czikas, Towes (D)
GPP Sleeper – no
Philadelphia Flyers @ Columbus Blue Jackets
Odds: CBJ -190, 6.5 leaning over
Love me some Philly! Going out on the road in a subpar matchup, but on an overall subpar slate make them sneaky. I love the Couturier line on the road, too, and they are cranking. We even have some sightings of the defense making them somewhat playable, too. Goalie – Tougher matchup on road as a big underdog. I’ll pass.
5 star plays – Voracek (W), Couturier (C), Giroux (W)
4 star plays – Lindholm (W), Sanheim (D), Gostisbehere (D), Provorov (D), Konecny (W)
Cash gamers – Lindholm, Sanheim
GPP Sleeper – PHI2
Columbus pulls one of the better MU Scores on the slate at a 6.1 which ought to tell you the overall strength of the slate…..it’s not good. We can look to the bigger guns here on the top two lines, but I also expect to be disappointed by a few matchups tonight if I’m being brutally honest. Goalie – Big favorite suggests the goalie is in play. PHI can do damage, I’d leave him for gpps.
5 star plays – Duchene (C)
4 star plays – Johnson (W), Atkinson (W), Panarin (W), Bjorkstrand (W), Jones (D)
Cash gamers – none
GPP Sleeper – CBJ1
Tampa Bay Lightning @ Boston Bruins
Odds: BOS -115, 6 leaning over
Best offense in league matches up against one of the best defenses. Tampa has their hands full in this one, but we likely have to take some pieces anyway…dammit. That PP1 is just too good not to look at every night, but again, I’d lower my expectations of some smash night. Goalie – It’s a coin flip game. It might be lower scoring, which helps. But, damned if I know who will win this one.
5 star plays – I shouldn’t say any are, but numbers say Kucherov (W), Stamkos (C), Point (C)
4 star plays – Gourde (W), McDonaugh (D)
Cash gamers – Point is about the only one, and I don’t really trust him like I would in other matchups
GPP Sleeper – no one is sneaky here. I’d rather advocate the fade and hope people flock to them anyway. I think that’s the better leverage.
One of the best offenses in Boston matches up against one of the better defenses. Sounds like the start of the last one, huh? Well, it’s a very similar situation. Goalie – It’s a coin flip game…..yep, same again.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Bergeron (C), Marchand (W), Krejci (C), DeBrusk (W), Johansson (W), Krug (D), McAvoy (D)
Cash gamers – Not a fan, but consistency has been in: Krejci, DeBrusk, Johansson, and McAvoy
GPP Sleeper – same thing where I almost play the fade and pray for a playoff style defensive struggle.
Edmonton Oilers @ Ottawa Senators
Odds: EDM -155, 6 leaning over
I can sum this up for both sides of this game………..shit on shit. There are some Edmonton plays, like last night, but as a whole….it’s a pass for stacking. Goalie – I don’t mind an Oiler goalie here. OTT is a train wreck.
5 star plays – Draisaitl (W), Nugent-Hopkins (C), McDavid (C)
4 star plays – Nurse (D)
Cash gamers – Draisaitl
GPP Sleeper – I don’t see a stack paying off here but can’t blame you for gambling being the game is leaning over based on two crap teams.
Same as above…shit on shit. Nothing changed because we switched the team we are focused on. Ottawa still traded off their best pieces. They are still forced to play guys that should be in the AHL. Oh well, it is what it is. Goalie – nah.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Chabot (D), Tkachuk (W)
Cash gamers – none
GPP Sleeper – no way from me
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Vancouver Canucks @ Arizona Coyotes
Odds: ARI -145, 5.5 leaning over
Vancouver is also on a back to back tonight, and they have some viable one-offs in the playable range. However, I’m treating them like an Edmonton and while they have some plays I’ll use, I’m not stacking them and expecting some ceiling game of 5 goals that win me a gpp. Goalie – ARI plays better at home, I can find the fade here easily as the underdog.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Petterson (C), Horvat (C), Boeser (W)
Cash gamers – Horvat
GPP Sleeper – not from me
Arizona plays better at home, it seems. They have loads of value most nights, and draw a little better than a mediocre matchup tonight for the slate scoring 5.7 on our MU Score. I’m not going to go nuts with exposure, but I’ll have some….most likely one-offs with upside like Galyenchuk, or even the dirt cheap Archibald. Goalie – Not your worst option. I’ll have to consider how much I want pricey stacks tonight. I’m feeling like I can get by cheap with good skaters on this slate and can then just pay up for safety at goalie. We’ll see.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Galchenyuk (W), Stepan (C), Goligoski (D), Oesterlie (D), Archibald (W)
Cash gamers – Stepan, Goligoski (D), Archibald (W)
GPP Sleeper – ARI PP2 – Stepan/Galchenyuk/Goligoski – no one in their right mind sees this, yet it offers 2 line coverage, PP2 correlation, and a defender going between your wings for unity……dirt cheap, too.
Florida Panthers @ Vegas Golden Knights
Odds: VGK -205, 6.5 leaning under
Florida shows us our top matchup on the night with a MU Score of 6.8. Now, 6.8 isn’t something to skip Christmas at gramma’s over, but it’s the best we have on tonight’s docket. Add in the best PPMU (our VIPs know how to find this number), and our position is strengthened somewhat. I will have a lot of Panthers tonight win, lose, or draw. Look at the possibilities for correlation below (for more on correlation, there is a tip in today’s YouTube breakdown). Goalie – Luongo is expected, and I’m not a huge fan. I’ll have shares, but I won’t be “all in.” Vegas can also do some damage here, so I might temper my expectations some.
5 star plays – Barkov (C), Hoffman (W), Huburdeau (W)
4 star plays – Yandle (D), Dadanov (W), Vatrano (W)
Cash gamers – Barkov, Hoffman, Huburdeau, Dadanov, Trochek
GPP Sleeper – probably not a “sleeper” but I don’t know how highly owned the PP1 will be. That’s where I’ll center my gameplan.
Vegas doesn’t have the matchup I thought they would at first glance because they aren’t scoring. They are not the team they were last year, and Florida is playing a little better lately when it comes to defense. Vegas still has some pieces, but they aren’t someone I blindly look to stack like I did last year. Goalie – I can see people doing this, but I don’t think I will being I expect a solid night from Florida and feel even the win at -205 from sportsbooks is in a little jeopardy if we don’t get a shootout.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Stone (W), Schmidt (D), Pacioretty (W), Theodore (D), Smith (W)
Cash gamers – Schmidt, Smith
GPP Sleeper – probably not sneaky tonight with the -200+ favorite tag, but worthy of exposure.
Dallas Stars @ Los Angeles Kings
Odds: DAL -115, 5.5 leaning hard on the under
Dallas is just sneaky tonight, in general. They can’t score at all, averaging only 2.0 goals in their last ten games. However, this slate really doesn’t offer a lot and the Kings defense is abysmal, allowing 4.0 goals against lately. This combines to a decent spot for Dallas to possibly erupt. Seguin leads the way with others providing some support….just not a lot. I won’t be shocked if they do well, so I’ll have pieces. But, I also won’t be shocked if they let me down (seems to be the theme for the whole slate). Goalie – GPP worthy in that IF Dallas can score, I think they score in bunches and win this one. But, I don’t trust the offense to provide us super strong win chances otherwise.
5 star plays – Seguin (C)
4 star plays – Radulov (W), Lindell (D)
Cash gamers – Radulov, Lindell, Spezza (C)
GPP Sleeper – definitely a sleeper stack of the DAL1 with Seguin/Radulov/Lindell…..Lindell being the key to keeping this stack lower owned.
Los Angeles can’t wait for baseball or football or, well the city doesn’t really care about it’s sports often, so maybe just sunshine. I don’t mean to insult the citizenry because they do have rabid fans….just not like other cities being there is so much to do in SoCal. So, I’ll just insult the Kings. No one on this team is producing right now when you look at the numbers. No one is safe. And, I’m not using them in gpps, either. So, I’ll just pass. Goalie – a resounding meh from me.
5 star plays – like for sure
4 star plays – i mean like … what a draaaag
Cash gamers – valley girl says “like oh muhhh gawwwwd”
GPP Sleeper – zzzzzzzzzz
Here is a one game view of our NHL Research Station matchup page. My daily videos typically walk you through this page and point out how I quickly decipher the best plays on the slate. When you unlock access to this page, you get team stats with large and small sample sizes to pick up trends, all the basis statistics, pricing, scoring lines, power play lines, scoring production including shots and blocks, and you get it all in one easy to read view. But, you only get it as a VIP. 99% of the stats I reference are directly from this single page. Your research has never been easier!!
Favorite NHL DFS Stacks for Tonight…
What is NHL without stacking?!
TOR2 – Kapanen/Johnsson/Matthews
CBJ1 – Duchene/Panarin/Atkinson
TBL PP1 – any combo of all five
DAL1 – Seguin/Radulov/Lindell
ARI PP2 – seen above in write-up
GPP Sleeper stack = FLA1 – Any combo of Barkov/Hoffman/Dadanov/Yandle/Huberdeau. They are all operating at full power and not many will notice this is the best paper matchup on the slate at a 6.8 MU Score. For chalk stacks, sneaky stacks, and others, you will have to ask inside our coaching forums this afternoon…
Hopefully, those pointers get you started in your research. I will be bouncing in and out of our NHL coaching room all day, with the rest of our coaches, to guide anyone with questions. I plan to drop a slate video showing our research process most days, and with a little time, our VIPs request shorter, strategy videos to help them shore up fundamentals, too. All free videos can be found on my YouTube channel, but all VIP videos need the key to unlock the vault.
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I hope to see you inside soon. Have a blessed day.