NBA DFS Advice and Value Picks: 2/12/19

Donuts to Dollars

The modus operandi of the majority of my articles, videos, and podcasts is to deliver compelling evidence through analytics, trends, and useful data as to why a player or team is an ideal target to invest in. In this daily column, I will point out the top value plays based on my personal model and projections.

I used my player pool that I put on our website and pumped out my second solid night over on FantasyDraft in the last week. I give away my personal player pool 6 days per week and discuss the slate with our members in chat. Hope to see you join and kick some butt over there with me. Promo DONUTS gives you 20% off forever!

Deep Fried Value

JaVale McGee – Over the past month, JaVale has averaged 1.26 fantasy points per minute. On top of that, Ivica Zubac was shipped out, Tyson Chandler and Mike Muscala are questionable Tuesday, and McGee gets a nice pace-up matchup and the Hawks bottom-5 defensive efficiency rating in this contest. He has played 29 and 26 minutes in the last two games and finished with a usage rating of 20.3% and 27.2% in those two games. If he nears 28-30 minutes in this game, McGee would be hard pressed to not deliver at least three times his value according to his salary on both FantasyDraft and DraftKings.

Trae Young – He has averaged a healthy 1.25 fantasy points per minute over the past month, a sizable 0.13 ppm increase when compared to his season-long average. The Hawks just cut Jeremy Lin, which means Trae should get plenty of run as Atlanta looks towards the future. He has played sub-29 minute in four straight contests, and yet he has scored 31.50 or more points in all four games, making that 11 straight games above that mark (including 5 times clearing the 40 point hurdle). I would not be shocked if Trae absolutely smashes value on FantasyDraft and DraftKings due to the matchup with the Lakers. The game has a 235 point total and the Hawks are implied to score 115.5 points. It’s going to be a fantastic environment for fantasy points.

Kenrich Williams – The Pelicans continue to give Kenrich a healthy amount of minutes and he continues to deliver phenomenal production. The Pelicans have an implied team total of 114.0 points and are favorites as they are coming off three days of rest and are hosting the visiting Orlando Magic. Williams has scored 31.00, 41.00, 27.00, 32.00, 28.75, 33.00, and 40.75 over the 7 games. That just happens to coincide with his minutes increase, as he has played at least 29 minutes in all seven contests. He is a strong value on FantasyDraft and DraftKings.

Jaylen Brown – He’s my only early morning elite value on FanDuel as of right now. Jaylen has scored 25.4, 40.0, 31.2, 32.2, 38.2, and 34.4 in the last six games that Kyrie has missed. His shot is falling again and he looks comfortable within the Celtics system. At just $5,200, Brown would have exceeded 5x his salary on 5 of the occasions and even reached 7-8x in 3-of-6. While he might not outright win you a tournament with an elite ceiling, at his price point he has a chance to significantly improve your odds.

 

Daily Fantasy Picks, Plays, Lineups, and Strategy for FanDuel, DraftKings, and FantasyDraft

In this video, I breakdown what to do with the Pelicans across all three sites, how to handle the Celtics roster on DraftKings, and my favorite second level stud due to the arena and spotlight he’ll have on him in his game. Remember to follow and subscribe to YouTube and the Twitch/iTunes links below it. (***THIS IS A SAMPLE VIDEO FROM A FEW DAYS AGO – WE HAVE DAILY PODS AND VIDEOS FROM A ROTATING TRIO OF COACHES***)

Monitor the news and notes channel in our chat and make sure you read our “if-then” analysis and research blurbs to make sure you are prepared to take advantage of any type of edge we can get. I’ll mention the value options in chat as they open up through the day.

Salute to the Member Success

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Fortune favors the bold, go make your own luck!
-Donuts