Hello DFS Army members and happy February! My name is Steve aka Mutt18. I am one of the new content contributors here at DFS Army and I’m very excited to join the team! I am @mutt_18 on Twitter as well, so give me a follow for any updates on this article as I will tweet them out. A little background about me, I’ve been grinding DFS for about 5-6 years now. DFS helped me pay my way through college and I am now a full-time firefighter. I love the challenge that DFS brings and my main sports are basketball, football, and baseball. I play on both FanDuel and DraftKings so this article will be tailored towards those two sites. I am also working on a Tutorial Article of how to use the RS Who’s Hot and Clock Watch tools to your advantage.
This article will be expanding into some new territory here at DFS Army as we will be looking at Value Traps. A value trap, also referred to as a land mine, are a player that jumps out either in the Domination Station or Research Station as representing value but in reality they really have no way of making value, either through inconsistent play, lack of opportunity, or they are just a bad play in general. These plays are often the ones that either make or break your lineups. My goal in this article is to dig a bit deeper and use all the great data available to us in the DS and RS and help try to identify those “Value Traps” that will destroy your lineups and end up costing you money. By identifying them my hope is to help educate you on what to look for and how to avoid these lineup killers. From there I will also be focusing on some of the lesser known tools available in the Research Station, specifically the Who’s Hot, and Clock Watch sections that can help us identify those players trending in the right direction that we can identify and use before the rest of the DFS world catches on. So with that said, lets dig in!
Still unsure about DFS Army? Check out user goosebumps night with a little help from yours truly. He took home a GPP and a grand total of over $3,000! Join today!
Last articles Traps:
Last night was a weird NBA night, all of the chalk value plays busted, which was fine in cash games as Randle and Porter were highly owned. However it killed you in GPPs (especially myself!) Let’s get back on a winning track today.
Josh Okogie- (21.3) Wiggins sitting out this game really opened up a ton of usage for Okogie that allowed him to score this high. Even so he didn’t do that much.
Patrick Patterson – (11.4) He didn’t do much at all besides rebound, just like as predicted.
Ed Davis – (14.2) Even with DeMarre Carroll sitting in this one he didn’t do much at all, he’s on the downward trend.
Just Missed the Cut: Allonzo Trier – (8.4) Him and Dotson essentially cancel each other out. Taj Gibson – (20.1) Saric started even sooner than I expected, Gibson got some more extended playing time because Saric got into foul trouble two minutes into the game, still didn’t do that much.
Now, let’s dig in to today’s slate!
For advice on how to build your lineups with the Drop Score, PLEASE READ THIS ARTICLE!
Value Traps
DeAndre Bembry (DK $3,600 FD $3,500)
We touched on Bembry last time out. He simply isn’t usable right now with the amount of playing time he is getting with Huerter, Prince, and Bazemore all in the rotation. He’s projected as the Top Value in the RS today and I’m here to warn you to stay away from that projection. He’s getting less than 20 minutes per game, and playing the Lakers tonight in what should be a competitive game. I see the Hawks relying more on their starts tonight, leaving Bembry as the odd man out once again. He’s barely playable as a Drop Score Candidate right now, that’s the only situation I could see playing him.
Kent Bazemore (DK $4,000 FD $4,300)
We already touched on Bembry, but there’s another Hawk that is making the list today as well. Huerter and Prince has seemingly taken over Bazemore in the Hawk’s rotation and he is another one who is the odd man out. Bazemore is popping out as the top value SG on the slate, but I’m here to tell you to look somewhere else given his current status. Let’s take a look at his Who’s Hot and Clock Watch stats in the RS:
Yeah…. that’s a lot of red. He’s down over 5 FPs a game over his last three, and he’s losing minutes to Prince and Huerter as well, he’s down over 3 minutes of playing time per game. The thing to monitor is that over his last 5 games, he’s averaging around 16 minutes of playing time off the bench. 16 minutes isn’t enough time for someone like Bazemore to pay off value. He needs around 25-30 minutes to really get that opportunity to meet value at his price point. Until we see his minutes start to trend upward, I’ll be staying away from this trap.
UPDATE: I’m liking Bazemore more and more tonight with Lin being bought out it should open up some additional usage and minutes for him tonight. He’s a solid Drop Score Candidate on FanDuel. Rajon Rondo takes his place here as a value trap tonight as he is not starting.
Ben Simmons (DK $7,800 FD $8,800)
It’s only been two games since adding Tobias Harris, but the early trend seems to show that Simmons is going to be the one most effected by it, take a look at his Who’s Hot and Clock Watch numbers down below:
Since Harris joined the Sixers his playing time has remained around the same, however he’s lost over 11FPs on average per game. He’s currently on in the 3x value range on both sites right now and it seems as though Simmons is trending as the mouth that isn’t going to get fed in Philly. I will be avoiding him until his price starts to come down and we see how the Sixers rotation keeps playing out over the next few games.
Just Missed the Cut: Rajon Rondo – With Reggie Bullock being brought in it relegated Rondo to coming off the bench last game which really kills his value as he is much more productive fantasy wise when he is playing alongside LeBron. Although the matchup is good it’s hard to pay around 6K for a guy coming off the bench and only saw 16 minutes out last game. However, if he is back in the starting lineup then he becomes a solid play, avoid him if he’s coming off the bench. Lance Stephenson – Stephenson was hurt by Bullock’s inclusion into the rotation as well as he only saw 12 minutes last game out. With him and KCP vying for minutes they essentially cancel each other out as it will likely depend on a game to game basis based on who gets hot.
Who’s Trending
Kenrich Williams (DK $4,900 FD $6,400)
The #KennyHustle train is alive and well! It appears as though he has carved himself a significant role moving forward on this Pelicans team as even with Randle and Davis back he is still playing over 30 minutes a game. Just take a look at his numbers:
He’s especially underpriced on DraftKings at only $4,900 and is one of my favorite plays over there. Even with E’Twaun Moore back Williams still saw 37 minutes last game. I like #KennyHustle in both cash and GPP tonight, especially on DraftKings.
Klay Thompson (DK $6,100 FD $7,400)
Don’t look now but Klay is heating up! Take a look:
Just like Williams, he’s underpriced on DK and is averaging almost 7x value on DK over his last 3. He’s averaging around 33MPG over his last 10 and this game against Utah will be up-tempo and should be competitive. He’s got a solid floor of around 25-30FPs with upside as we’ve seen what he can do when he gets hot. He’s a great cash game play on DK and FD. I see him staying hot tonight and getting you around 35-45FPs tonight as long as this game stays competitive.
J.J. Redick (DK $5,300 FD $5,700)
I have to say I did not see this one coming. I thought Redick would be the man left out with the Sixers with the addition of Tobias Harris. However, since Harris’ arrival he has actually greatly benefited from it. Over his last 2 since Harris joined, he’s averaging 30 MPG and has scored 36.9 and 39.1 FPs and has been shooting lights out. Even with Kyrie out tonight I see this being a very competitive game as the Celtics will come out firing after getting embarrassed by the Clippers last game out. With all the other problems the C’s have to defend Redick should see his fair share of open 3’s tonight. I like him for cash a lot tonight.
Jaylen Brown (DK $5,100 FD $5,200)
Rozier is priced a bit too high tonight for me that effects his upside but he is still great for cash games, but Brown benefits greatly when Kyrie is out again tonight. Jaylen Brown usage rate with is around 22% and plays mainly with the second unit. Let’s look at his numbers with Kyrie off the court:
He sees a pretty solid 3.5% usage rate increase and should see around 30 minutes hopefully off the bench. I actually like him less if he starts tonight as he really only goes off when he plays with the second unit. If Brown ends up starting then I actually like Hayward more tonight as he will dominate the second team. However, if Brown stays coming off the bench then you can lock him in with confidence.
LeBron James (DK $10,500 FD $11,200)
He is currently a GTD right now, but its looking like he will play. As long as he plays he is my favorite pay-up option tonight as the Hawks cannot guard anyone. They are ranked 26th in overall Team Defensive Efficiency and are the worst defense on the slate tonight. The pace-up isn’t huge but the Hawks should keep this one competitive enough that LeBron should need to pay 30+ minutes tonight. LeBron should be able to do whatever he wants tonight and he has one of the highest ceilings on the slate along with Embiid and Anthony Davis. AD is priced up too high for me with his current restrictions on FanDuel, but is interesting on DraftKings. If LeBron sits then Embiid becomes my favorite pay up option.
Other Guys I Like Tonight: DeMar Derozan – White continues to be out tonight, so DeMar should have some additional PG duties again tonight. I’d like him more if they weren’t playing Memphis as this will be a very slow paced game. However, he is trending up everywhere in our models. Ivan Rabb – More so on DraftKings as I think he is priced right around value on FanDuel. I like him more if Valanciunas sits again tonight. Terry Rozier – Rozier will be a cash staple for me tonight with Kyrie out. Whenever Kyrie is out Rozier is always in play for me.
As always, keep your eyes peeled for updates as we get news closer to lock. All my updates will be in BOLD.
That’s all I got for today guys, any questions feel free to hit me up in the coaches forums (I will be in there for a bit, but I am not coaching today) or via Twitter (username is at the top of the article) Now let’s go get that money!