Mutt18’s NBA Game Break for FanDuel and DraftKings, February 13th

Hello DFS Army members and happy February! My name is Steve aka Mutt18. I am one of the new content contributors here at DFS Army and I’m very excited to join the team! I am @mutt_18 on Twitter as well, so give me a follow for any updates on this article as I will tweet them out. A little background about me, I’ve been grinding DFS for about 5-6 years now. DFS helped me pay my way through college and I am now a full-time firefighter. I love the challenge that DFS brings and my main sports are basketball, football, and baseball. I play on both FanDuel and DraftKings so this article will be tailored towards those two sites. 

This article will be a game by game break down and who may favorite plays are. You should use this article to put together your own player pool and take advantage of the Domination Station and Research Station to help you build that winning lineup!

Still unsure about DFS Army? Check out user goosebumps night with a little help from yours truly. He took home a GPP and a grand total of over $3,000! Join today!

 

For advice on how to build your lineups with the Drop Score, PLEASE READ THIS ARTICLE!

With no further ado, let’s dig into today’s slate!

Brooklyn Nets vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (O/U 221 BKN -6.0)

I’m liking this game from a fantasy perspective the more and more I look at it. The Nets get the Cavs at home who come in dead last (30th) in team defensive efficiency on the season, but they are at home which should keep this one close. With a O/U of 220 which is middle of the road we don’t want too many options from this game. However, this is one of the better pace-up matchups at +4.1. With the Nets getting a lot of their pieces back, D’Angelo Russell is the pay up option you want here. He’s locked into over 30 minutes per game and with Spencer Dinwiddie injured he is sporting a phenomenal 32.5% usage rate and averaging 1.30FPPM. Allen Crabbe is also a situation to watch as he saw over 30 minutes off the bench last game, he presents a solid value play tonight. On the other side of the ball Larry Nance Jr.  is one of my favorite targets tonight as Brooklyn is middle of the road in team defensive efficiency and against forwards. He’s played around 35 minutes over the last 3 games and has topped 40FPs in each of his last 3. He’s trending upward in the RS as well. Kevin Love likely won’t play more than 15-20 minutes tonight so that also opens some solid time for Marquese Chriss and he is another solid value option. Collin Sexton will also continue to be in play at his price point as he is seeing huge minutes with the Cavs in full tank mode. Lastly, keep an eye on the Cedi Osman news, if he sits again tonight David Nwaba becomes another solid value play.

Here’s a peek at the Cavalier’s Who’s Hot Section of the Research Station:

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers (O/U 219 MIL -3.5)

The Pacers have been white hot lately but will likely hit the buzzsaw tonight in the Milwaukee Bucks. The Bucks are ranked 1st overall in Team Defensive Efficiency, and the Pacers are right behind them at #2. I expect this to be one of the lower scoring games on the slate. With that being said Giannis Antetokounmpo is always going to be a great option as he has one of the highest ceilings on the slate. I don’t really have much interest in any of the other Bucks as Indiana’s lowest aDvP is 11th vs. Centers, which still isn’t a favorable matchup. On the other side of the ball I really only have one solid GPP guy and some slight interest in some of the value that the Pacers have to offer. Myles Turner has a favorable matchup as the Bucks are ranked 23rd aDvP against Centers. He is GPP only for me though as Brook Lopez will pull him away from the basket when the Bucks are on offense which will likely limit his rebounding upside. However, Turner is always in play for GPPs as he has the ability to get you that 50 you want. Tyreke Evans intrigues me a bit as a Drop Score Candidate on FanDuel as he is only $3,800 over there. With Wesley Matthews being thrown into the rotation it takes away a lot of Cory Joseph’s value, so I won’t be looking there. Not much here in this game.

Detroit Pistons vs. Boston Celtics (O/U TBD BOS -5.0)

I’m interested to see what the O/U comes out at for this one as this should be a great matchup from a Fantasy Perspective. Andre Drummond has really been heating up as of late and gets to face off against the always soft Celtics interior. He put up over 60FPs last game and is averaging just under 50FPs in his last 3 against the C’s. Blake Griffin also draws a favorable matchup tonight, but I like him more for cash games. I don’t have much interest outside of those two tonight on the Pistons side. Kyrie is sitting out again tonight, so I have a lot of interest in the Celtics tonight. Jaylen Brown underperformed last night, but gets the biggest usage bump at 3.5% and would see close to 30 minutes, he averages 0.96FPPM which would make him a solid value. Gordon Hayward would be another one of my favorite plays as he is really looking like he is rounding back into his pre-injury self. He looked great against Philly last night and was huge in helping them win last night. He should see close to 30 minutes again which would make him a great play. Terry Rozier is also doubtful tonight with an illness, which would open up the show for Brad Wanamaker at minimum price, he would make a great value play if both Kyrie and Rozier are out. Bump up Brown and Hayward as well if they are both out. Lastly, Marcus Morris would make another great cash game play as he is a bit underpriced on both sites.

Philadelphia 76ers vs. New York Knicks (O/U 222.5 PHI -9)

The Sixers will be playing angry tonight after their big loss to the Celtics last night. The Knicks are ranked 28th in overall team defensive efficiency and get to face the Sixers on the second half of a B2B. Keep an eye on Joel Embiid as he may sit this one out for rest purposes as he played 37 minutes last night, although he hasn’t been designated as a GTD…yet. The whole Sixers starting 5 should be in play, although I would tamper expectations on Ben Simmons unless Embiid is out, as he seems to be the one most effected by the addition of Tobias Harris. JJ Redick gets the most favorable matchup as the Knicks are ranked 28th aDvP against SGs and he should have plenty of open 3 opportunities tonight. I also expect Boban Marjanovic to be a solid value play tonight, especially on FanDuel, because he should start if Embiid sits, and I still like him even if he plays as he will likely see a few extra minutes with the heavy load Embiid took on last night. I don’t like DSJ tonight as he should struggle with Simmons size, and Kadeem Allen has been playing great the last two games. Allen should be a solid GPP punt play if you think this one gets ugly. Kevin Knox also represents some solid value is he is playing a ton of minutes as well.

Washington Wizards vs. Toronto Raptors (O/U 233.5 TOR -11)

I expect this one to be a bit closer than Vegas has it right now, as this Wizards team tends to hang around. Jabari Parker burned everyone last time out, but at $4,600 on FanDuel he’s hard to pass up again, I won’t recommend him for cash games but in GPP it seems like you almost have to take the shot on him. Bradley Beal is one of my favorite plays tonight as he kills the Raptors anytime they play, just take a look:

I also like Bobby Portis tonight as he should see close to 30 minutes once again tonight. On the other side of the ball the entire Raptors starting 5 is in play again, as the Washington Wizards are ranked 26th overall in team defensive efficiency. My top ranked option would be Kawhi Leonard as he gets a great matchup although he has been a bit cold lately, but this is a get right matchup. Danny Green makes a solid Drop Score Candidate tonight as well, as the Wizards are dead last aDvP against SGs and if he gets hot he can win you a GPP. I have interest in Marc Gasol if he starts as the Wizards have trouble defending the 5.

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Chicago Bulls (O/U 203 CHI -2.5)

 This is one of the uglier games on the slate tonight as this O/U is the lowest on the slate as the Grizzlies really slow down the pace of any game they play in. Hopefully Mike Conley sits again tonight, which would open up a ton of time and usage for Delon Wright again. If Conley sits again Avery Bradley is definitely in play again as a Drop Score Candidate but don’t expect him to put up a 50 burger again…like ever again. Jonas Valanciunas is a great GPP play tonight, especially if we get news that his minutes will be upped. On the Bulls side of the ball, Lauri Markkanen is once again a great play as he is seeing a ton of minutes and usage with both Jabari Parker and Bobby Portis gone. He is priced up a bit but he should be worth it. That’s about all I’m interested in for this game as it is very dry from a fantasy perspective. One thing is to keep an eye on Kris Dunn news, if he sits tonight it opens up value at the PG position as Ryan Arcidiacono would turn into a solid Drop Score Candidate.

Houston Rockets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (O/U 231 HOU -3)

Now this is much better! Houston plays at a fast pace to start, and gets a slight +2.2 pace-up matchups facing off against the T-Wolves. I’ll start off by saying that I still think James Harden is still too overpriced with CP3 back as he really limits his ceiling. That being said, if you have the salary to fit Harden in, do it. I love Chris Paul tonight as a cash game option as he is seeing around 30 minutes per game and have been right around 40FPs in each of his last 4 games. Kenneth Faried is another cash game staple as he has been the model of consistency at over 30FPs since he joined the Rockets rotation. Karl-Anthony Towns is one of my favorite Center plays tonight as he should have his way down low tonight against the Rockets undersized front court and should bounce back from a down game in a plus matchup last game out. I really like Andrew Wiggins if he suits up tonight as he really has stepped up lately and is priced in the mid-range at SG tonight. He has the upside you need to win a GPP. I like Dario Saric again tonight if he starts again, but I’m not a fan of his price tag jumping up. If Wiggins sits, Josh Okogie becomes a decent Drop Score Candidate as he should see 30+ minutes. I don’t have interest in Teague tonight as he will be facing off against CP3 who is still a solid defender.

Miami Heat vs. Dallas Mavericks (O/U 209 DAL -2.5)

This one should be another snooze fest as we have another low total and two very boring teams. I hate rostering players against the Heat as they are ranked 6th overall in total team deficiency and they make life tough for everyone. I’ll be quick with this one since there isn’t a lot to like here. Dion Waiters has seen a significant uptick in minutes since TyJo got traded and is still really cheap across the industry. Luka Doncic is also in play as well but he is priced up on both sites in a slower-paced game, he’s a good contrarian play tonight as I don’t see him being highly owned. That’s really all I like tonight from this game, maybe some Hassan Whiteside if you’re feeling dangerous.

Sacramento Kings vs. Denver Nuggets (O/U 231 DEN -8)

Nikola Jokic is in a great spot tonight as he has one of the highest And1 ratings in the Research Station at 23.7 which is tied with James Harden. He’s a triple double machine and with the high total in this game he has an excellent shot at another one tonight. This is also the biggest pace-up game on the slate at +5.9 which works in Denver’s favor the most as they are more efficient on offense. Mason Plumlee is another interesting option if he starts again. With Millsap back in the fold I think it takes Trey Lyles out of consideration tonight. On the Kings side of the ball Buddy Hield is an interesting option as the Nuggets are ranked 27th aDvP against SGs, which also puts Bogdan Bogdanovic in play as well. Marvin Bagley is also a great GPP play as he should see close to 30 minutes off the bench and the Nuggets struggle against players like him. With a massive total like this game has Harry Giles is even in play as a Drop Score Candidate. This is a game to target tonight for sure and the Nuggets will likely be my favorite team to target tonight, along with the Celtics. Take a look at the Nuggets data from the RS below:

Golden State Warriors vs. Portland Trailblazers (O/U 234.5 GSW -3.0)

Steph Curry sees a slight usage bump with the news that Boogie will be sitting out the second half of a B2B. Kevon Looney becomes a solid value play tonight as it should open up some additional minutes for him and he probably slides into the starting lineup, he’s cheap everywhere. If Draymond sits I like Looney and Jordan Bell as well. This should be a great game and Kevin Durant is another great pay-up option, Andre Igoudala should be a solid value play as well if Draymond sits this one out at well. On the other side of the ball Damian Lillard makes a fantastic play with Steph Curry guarding him and should be in line for a ton of usage tonight to keep this one close. Another great play I like tonight is Jusuf Nurkic as the Warriors are ranked 27th aDvP against Centers, if Draymond sits as well that makes the matchup even better for Nurkic. This is another game to target tonight for a late night hammer.

Phoenix Suns vs Los Angeles Clippers (O/U 231.5 LAC -8)

This is another great game to target for a late night hammer as well. Devin Booker is always in play for GPPs and TyJo is a GTD with his ankle. If we get word before lock that he will sit bump up Booker a bit more. Elie Okobo would become another Drop Score Candidate but I would take Wanamaker over him. Josh Jackson is also in play tonight but I think he is priced right at value. On the LA side Montrezl Harrell should see 30ish minutes off the bench again and the Suns are bottom 3rd in the league against bigs and 29th overall in team defensive efficiency. Ivica Zubac will be lower-owned tonight after burning everyone last game with his pathetic performance. I like him to bounce back in this one as the last time he played the Suns he put up over 50FPs and has a solid history against them. He’s still under-priced everywhere tonight. Danilo Gallinari is also in play for me tonight if he plays close to 30 minutes again. He usually starts out hot and fades, but I expect him to stay hot throughout this whole game. Lou Williams also has the upside you’re looking for tonight and should have his way against this Suns defense.

As always, keep your eyes peeled for updates as we get news closer to lock. The last big slate before the All-Star break keep in mind that guys will be sitting as we get closer to lock so keep your out tonight especially for late breaking news!

That’s all I got for today guys, any questions feel free to hit me up in the coaches forums (I am coaching tonight as well!) or via Twitter (username is at the top of the article) Now let’s go get that money!