Welcome back! Last week’s card was interesting to say the least with a lot of unexpected outcomes. That’s way I am glad we get right back at it this Saturday with a 12 fight card down under in Australia. Unlike last week I feel this is a good card for cash and tournaments. Lineup construction will be interesting mainly because there aren’t any underdogs that stick out as must plays.
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As always have some fun in tournaments this week. Just remember the Golden Rule! While chasing after the big payout is enticing always remember bankroll management. I am a firm believer in the 80-20 rule. Which is 80% of your allocated bankroll for the night in cash games and 20% in tournaments. Remember to take advantage of our Research Station and Domination Station. Plus check out the podcast, and follow me on Twitter (@MMACashAssassin) for the latest MMA and DFS Army news! Let’s break down these fights.
For those of you new to MMA here is a breakdown of the scoring used on Draftkings.
DFS MMA UFC 234 Fighter Advice
Fights to Target In Cash
First off before I give breakdowns here. What we are looking for in cash games is safety with a nice floor. It might be taking a high priced favorite in a good spot. It could also be a value play based on odds and pricing. Often times in cash I will look to stack a fight specifically if it has the potential to go 5 rounds (always the main event on the card or a championship fight). Now both sides of a fight may not be cash viable in a fight but, at least 1 of them is under this group.
Whittaker (-235) 8.9k vs Gastelum (+195) 7.3k
Whittaker is a solid striker and has good output (lands 4.82 Significant Strikes per minute). He has solid leg kicks and a good chin. Gastelum is a solid striker and lands 3.86 Significant Strikes (SS’s) per minute. He is aggressive and has good power.
Looking at the odds from Vegas this fight is leaning on ending Inside The Distance (ITD) and carries a prop of (-180). Each fighter carries props here of (Whittaker +136 and Gastelum +300) to win ITD.
With this fight being the Main Event we have 5 potential rounds of action compared to the other fights being 3 rounds. I often times in cash try and stack the main event if, I feel both fighters get a combined score of 120+.
This card is no different for me. Our DFS Army exclusive Research Station has their combined draftkings scores of 127.33. For this reason I am more than comfortable stacking this fight in cash games.
In tournaments just this being the main event means it carries a decent amount of ownership. So, while I do think both fighters warrant some exposure. This isn’t a fight I think you need 100% exposure to in your lineups. I actually think a solid contrarian approach is to fade this fight in tournaments to a degree.
In lineups I do target this fight in Gastelum is my preferred draftkings play. One, he is cheaper and carries much higher upside in a win. I will have shares of Whittaker also (he is my prediction to win the fight). Overall stack this fight in cash and get some exposure to both in tournaments.
Adesanya (-580) 9.6k vs Silva (+440) 6.6k
Adesanya is a solid striker (4.51 SS’s per minute). He has solid leg kicks and good combinations. Silva is a former middleweight champion and a UFC veteran. He is by far the more experienced fighter in this matchup and is a good striker (3.15 SS’s per minute).
This fight Vegas thinks will end early (-195 ITD) and in this scernario gives the edge to Adesanya (-152 to win ITD).
Adesanya is the highest priced fighter on the entire card and carries the best odds to win. For that reason alone he is playable in cash games especially. Tournaments on draftkings is a different story for me personally. With his high price tag he is dependent on a 1st round finish to pay off his salary. Yes, this is a likely outcome. But, in tournaments I think a better strategy is to have limited exposure to him.
This way say he is 50% owned in tournaments. If he doesn’t reach value and you faded him you already have an advantage over 50% of the field. For that reason I think Adesanya makes for a better cash play and in tourments I will have limited exposure to him personally. Silva doesn’t interest me at all unless I am building 150+ lineups (even then I would only want him in a couple. To sum it all up Adesanya is my preferred play.
Kang (-360) 9.4k vs Ishihara (+300) 6.8k
Kang is a tough fighter and solid overall. He is a good grappler and has solid takedowns (TD’s). Ishihara is an ok striker (3.21 SS’s per minute) and has solid power. He has shown to have not the best cardio and is severely lacking in his ground game.
This is another fight Vegas likes to end early (-165 ITD) with, Kang being the winner (+100 to win ITD).
Let’s take our 1st glance at our Research Station and see what it thinks of this matchup.
As you can see Kang is showing up as a very solid play in cash and even tournaments with that finishing upside. Ishihara does have a punchers chance in this fight but, I personally don’t believe that’s likely. I will more than likely be fading him or have limited ownership (no more than 15%). Kang is my preferred play and I like him in all formats.
Martinez (-155) 8.5k vs Buren (+135) 7.7k
Martinez is a tough fighter and decent striker. This will be his 2nd fight in the UFC. Buren has a solid ground game and good TD’s. He has been known to gas in the later rounds.
Vegas fully expects this fight to go to decision (-225). Each fighter carrying props of (Martinez +150 and Buren +207) to win via decision.
Looking at these numbers from our Research Station at his draftkings salary Buren makes for a solid punt (especially in cash). Buren’s odds have been improving steadily throughout the week so, he could end up being chalky. This makes Martinez a solid tournament play as well. In general the 1st fight of the night tends to carry lower ownership.
I think the best idea is to have some exposure to both in tournaments and consider using Buren in your cash lineups.
Fights to Target in Tournaments
Unlike the cash fights from above. These tournament fights carry greater risk. While they may have a lower floor these fights have higher ceilings. Which when mixed with the right amount of cash plays can yield huge dividends in tournaments.
Turner (-240) 8.7k vs Potter (+200) 7.5k
Turner is athletic and a decent striker. He has decent ground and pound. It is worth noting all of his wins have been in the 1st round and 4 of his losses have been by way of KO. Potter is a decent striker and has decent submissions. He is tough and is a good grappler (has black belt in Muay Thai).
This has the highest finishing prop on the entire card (-350 to end ITD). With Turner having the best odds to do so at (-165).
Everything points to Turner being a solid play in tournaments. I just can’t ignore the fact he has lost 4 times by way of KO. Not to mention Potter is the more experienced fighter in general. This makes me want to have some exposure to Potter in tournaments. We also can’t ignore the odds and upside Turner carries as well. It will be very, hard for me not to get a healthy amount of both. My preferred play is Potter (mainly because we need to target some dogs on this card).
Smith (-250) 8.6k vs Ma (+210) 7.6k
Smith is a good striker and has solid power. He is athletic and quick. Ma is an ok striker and has a good chin. He is a decent grappler and tough.
Let’s cut to the chase in this fight. Vegas likes this to end early (-225 ITD) with Smith winning (-137). I am not going to overthink this . Based of his draftkings salary and finishing odds Smith is squaely in play in all formats (I have little to no interest in Ma).
Vannata (-420) 9.3k vs Mariano (+335) 6.9k
Vannata is a decent striker (5.03 SS’s per minute) and has ok power. Mariano is taking this fight on short notice and is a former kickboxer.
This has a juicy finishing prop of (-275) and Vannata has a prop of (-210) to win ITD.
Vannata comes into this matchup with a UFC record of 1-3-2. Yes, I know that’s horrible. Even with this record he is still leaps and bounds better than Mariano from what I have seen of him.
It’s really hard to ignore these numbers. I know his record isn’t the best. But, I honestly think the UFC us setting him up for a win here. Plus he could be fairly low owned because he hasn’t looked good in his last several fights. I am going to trust my gut and our Research Stations numbers here. I think Vannata is a very strong play in all formats and I don’t want anything to do with Mariano.
Young (-335) 9.1k vs Arnett (+275) 7.1k
Young is an aggresive fighter and has solid TD’s. He is a decent striker and has a solid chin. Arnett is a decent striker and has a decent chin.
Vegas is slightly, leaning on this ending ITD (-180). Smith being the beneficiary in this scenerio (+177 to win ITD).
Arnett just is a a good fighter. I think Smith most likely ends this fight at some point. I think he makes for a good tournment play and depending on your lineup construction on draftkings can even be considered in cash games. I am personally fading Arnett.
France (-260) 9k vs Paiva (+220) 7.2k
France is a decent striker and has ok power. He has decent TD’s and good cardio. Paiva is making his UFC debut here. He is a decent striker and has ok power.
Vegas has this fight pegged as going to decision (-175) and France has victor (+124 to win via decision)
Overall this isn’t a fight I will be targeting to heavily. I do think both warrant some exposure. I am personally going to have no more than 20-30% on either. If I had to pick a winner it would be France. I just hate his salary.
Most Fade Worthy Fights on Card
Crute (-140) 8.3k vs Alvey (+120) 7.9k
Fight is (-130) to end by decision. I hate Alvey has a draftkings play. He is so dependent on a finish to score on drsftkings. For what it’s worth I think Crute wins here.
Rosa (-260) 8.8k vs Kassem (+220) 7.4k
This fight should take mainly on the feet. I think that limits the upside for Rosa. Although she does make for a decent cash play if you are stuck in that range for your last spot. Kassem is playable in tournaments if you are building 20+ lineups. Overall not a fight I want to target.
If any of my thoughts change I will post them in chat. Also we are introducing a new feature for our VIP’s where we will have all our thoughts up-to-the-minute in 1 spot.
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