Finally, we have a true four-game slate today with beautiful weather in AZ. After two days, we’ve got an even better sense of what to expect from these games.
1. Take your free squares on the mound. Playing anyone with lower K% than the top two arms is not optimal. Even if one is outscored it will likely be within 1-2 pts that we can make up for elsewhere. Also, today is the first day we have a starter making his second appearance in camp (Mengden, OAK).
2. It helps to have a substitute player only at the very top of tournaments. It’s nice to have an at-bat late to give you staying/climbing power on the leaderboards, but so much ownership is concentrated on the starters that the needle doesn’t move much at the top late. You really don’t need more than one non-starter (if any), and I would stay away from using more than 2 in any single lineup.
3. There are prospects who will get to play a majority of the game. This is a great place to find an edge. Guys that haven’t been seen much by the club (waiver claim/trade) or guys that need at-bats (shortened ’18 season/injury). Often, these guys aren’t hitting at the top of the order and ownership will be suppressed.
4. DHs have been getting three at-bats. It’s rare to see the DH subbed early. (Cubs and Dodgers most likely to break this rule, all other teams seem fine leaving the DH in until the last ab).
5. The lineup cards are scripts for the slate. No better place to look for an edge than here. Some teams list the subs on the lineup cards before the game. This type of confirmation is what makes more than two backups in play.
6. Speed kills. So far, we have seen only green lights on the bases. Speedy prospects are running early and often.
As of right now, we have most of the lineups out. I will post the actual lineup cards in slack when available. You can see the basic lineups here: Lineups
Player Pool
Starters:
German Marquez (COL) Best K% we’ll see today, likely throws two full innings like the rest of the Rockies rotation.
Daniel Mengden (OAK) Should have the highest PC we have seen so far. He was knocked around by Haniger and the M’s in his first outing, but the stache should be able to bounce back. He has better numbers against lefties and will face a Dodgers lineup full of them.
Trevor Cahill (LAA) I expect Cahill to be fairly popular today, but I’ll probably be underweight. There’s a chance he only throws 1 with his injury history.
Reynaldo Lopez (CWS) Not my favorite matchup across the board, but the strikeout ability is there. I’ll have about 20% Lopez.
Relievers:
Jose Suarez (LAA) The lefty should follow Cahill and will have very low ownership. He’s a playable strikeout arm who is close to being big league ready.
DH: (Top Plays in Bold)
1. Scott Schebler (L) CIN
3. Yonder Alonso (L) CWS
5. Mark Zagunis (R) CHC
7. Hunter Pence (R) TEX
7. Josh Thole (L) LAD
3. Matt Chapman (R) OAK
3. Albert Pujols (R) LAA
3. David Dahl (L) COL
Top Sleeper Plays:
7. Jurickson Profar (S) OAK
4. Cristhian Adames (S) CHC
6. Eloy Jimenez (R) CWS
7. Nick Senzel (R) CIN
8. Mike Tauchman (L) COL
Top Stacks:
COL: Blackmon, Dahl, Story, Tauchman
CWS: Moncada, Alonso, Castillo, Jimenez
CIN: Schebler, Votto, Suarez/Senzel, Puig
Contrarian:
TEX Lefties vs Hamels: Odor, Mazara, Gallo/Guzman
(Cubs excluded b/c regular starters likely only get two hacks)