Donuts to Dollars
The modus operandi of the majority of my articles, videos, and podcasts is to deliver compelling evidence through analytics, trends, and useful data as to why a player or team is an ideal target to invest in. In this daily column, I will point out the top value plays based on my personal model and projections.
I used my player pool that I put on our website (demonstration video of using optimizer and tutorial on how to use the Donuts to Dollars NBA Model) and pumped out my second solid night over on FantasyDraft in the last week. I give away my personal player pool 6 days per week and discuss the slate with our members in chat. Hope to see you join and kick some butt over there with me. Promo DONUTS gives you 20% off forever!
Deep Fried Value
Andre Drummond has a few great things going for him in his matchup against the Atlanta Hawks. First off, the Hawks cannot rebound and Drummond lives in the paint. Second, he’s been on fire, scoring at least 48.75 fantasy points in 8 of his last 9 games. One thing I always talk about when narrowing down my player pool is comparing similarly priced players with similar ceilings and floors and asking, “which one has a higher probability of hitting their ceiling?”. Drummond need to hit 3x his salary marker to be of value to your lineup and we just looked at his last 9 games and remarkable consistency with a high ceiling. To top it all off, he is our highest graded player using our And1 system inside our DFS Army Research Station.
Luke Kennard is a fantastic guard option on FantasyDraft due to his uptick in playing time since Reggie Bullock was sent to the Lakers. Luke has played 28, 28, and 36 minutes in the last three games, scoring 22.75, 23.75, and 25.25 fantasy points. While he’s barely hovering above 3.0x his salary marker, I think that this is his scoring floor. In a pace-up matchup against a bottom-10 rated team according to defensive efficiency, I believe that Luke can return 4-5x value and score double-digit points for his 5th games in the last 6 contests.
Cody Zeller is in a nice spot to return solid value at a few hundred under $10,000. Minutes are really his only issue for him returning a solid score but he’s been getting those as of late and if he gets 29 or more (as he has in the last two games), he’s going to do very well against the weak front court of the Washington Wizards. At the very least, he won’t sink your lineup as his floor is fairly solid, scoring 26.25 or more in 5 straight.
Paul Millsap is an absolute steal due to his price tag and potential scoring ceiling. While he is volatile this season, largely due to his minutes constantly fluctuating, he’s a perfect tournament option at just $8,800 on FantasyDraft. He has scored 24.75 or more in 4 out of the last 5 contests, including a 30.50 spot two games ago and a massive 52.25 point outing against the Kings in his last game. His ceiling is likely around 6-7x his salary marker and his floor (especially in this matchup) is pretty reachable even on a bad outing. I expect him to do very well in this game and he’s well rested, as is that ankle that has plagued him over the last three weeks.
Nikola Jokic is in an elite spot, just like Millsap. However, these two are not player I necessarily want to trot out in the same lineup. Jokic is way under-priced for his floor and ceiling combination and I plan on taking advantage in tournaments on Friday. He has scored over 60.00 fantasy points in 7 out of his last 11 outings. At just $17,800, what else could you ask for? Russell Westbrook has scored 60.00 or more in 8 out of his last 11 games and costs nearly $3,000 more. While Westy has a higher floor, the opportunity cost might not be worth it as the Thunder face off against the Utah Jazz and their difficult defense.
Zach LaVine has scored 40.50 or more in 6 out of his last 8 games, including twice over 48.75. He has played 31 or more minutes in all 8 games and has had a usage rate of 24.3% in all but one of those contests. He’s averaged 26/6/5 (I rounded down) in those games and at just $13,400 he has an elite scoring ceiling. The Magic had won 7 out of their last 8 heading into the All-Star break, providing them a hefty 8.0 point spread with a 112.5 point implied team total over the Chicago Bulls (104.5 point ITT). I believe this game will be much closer than that and Lauri Markkanen and Zach LaVine will shoulder the offensive load.
Personal Player Pool
For my personal pool, I always try to work my way upwards when building lineups or a CSV file. I want to make sure I have the correct value and then build upwards from that value, plugging in the rest of my player pool or lineup with guys that have tremendous scoring ceilings. Players like Luke Kennard and Paul Millsap make for excellent options to free up salary in order to plug in superb ceilings from players like Nikola Jokic and Andre Drummond. I will likely have a few shares of players like Delon Wright and Kent Bazemore, both of whom provide be with the much needed salary to target the upper-tier projected players like Paul George and Kawhi Leonard (revenge narrative I’ll actually buy into).
On a 9-game slate it is imperative that you shrink your pool and plant your flag behind certain players. With so many options, it’s sometimes difficult to dial it back a notch and not overthink things. Let our research do the hard work for you and if you don’t have time, use our personal player pools in conjunction with the optimizer and settings.
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