Schnarr’s Super Picks DFS PGA Preview – Waste Management Open

Every week on the PGA Tour a new course means a new set of challenges. This article will examine the course being played and give specific insight on some keys for the week that other previews may be overlooking. This article will also breakdown players who stand out on both FanDuel and DraftKings for Cash Game and GPP formats. Finally, I will be reviewing my picks from before and going into a deeper dive on my Cash Game team in an attempt to better my own process while hopefully helping you with yours. For more updates throughout the week follow me on twitter @_bschnarr

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Review from last week

 In this section I will break down the players I wrote up from the prior week, how they did and how I played them in my line-ups.

Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Justin Rose, Tiger Woods, Jason Day – Over $10k DraftKings

I wrote up the top group of salaries noting that all five guys are great golfers with good course history and that ownership would likely dictate my final play. As I wrote to members, I ended up suggesting Rose, Mcilroy and Day > Rahm and Tiger,which ultimately worked out well as these three far surpassed Rahm & Tiger in Fantasy points per $. To be fair, my reason was I thought ownership would be going to Tiger and Rahm, which ultimately was not the case as ownership was spread incredibly evenly between the five in GPP’s (McIlroy and Day were actually #1/2 in the $1500 out of this group).

Rickie Fowler, Patrick Cantlay, Charles Howell, Gary Woodland, Jordan Spieth

Although I think I nailed the first grouping I did the exact opposite on this one. I ultimately wrote up how I liked Cantlay in cash, but I couldn’t get on him in GPP’s with the expected ownership. I also ended up on Fowler but overall was off of/underweight on just about everyone else as I ended up overweight on the top salaries and the mid/low $8k range.

Hideki Matsuyama – DK: $8000 FD: $11700

I wrote up how I loved Hideki in Cash Games & GPP and that did not change as the week went along. Hideki was my favourite play simply because he was too good of a price to pass up on. Others agreed as Hideki was nearly 25% owned across GPP’s but with a top five finish he was necessary to have any real shot at a top GPP cash for the week.

Daniel Berger – DK: $7900 FD: $10000 

I also Liked Berger as a pivot if you chose to not play Hideki OR liked playing both together in line-ups as a likely unique pairing. Berger ultimately did not work out and the missed cut certainly would not have helped your teams.

J.B Holmes – DK: $7900 FD: $

Another guy I liked in this range was J.B. Another guy that did not work out for me was J.B.

Jason Kokrak – DK: $7100 FD: $8500

A player I did like who performed really well was Jason Kokrak. Between $7500 and $7000 Kokrak was only outperformed by Adam Scott and Michael Thompson.

Course Preview

 In this section I will point out a few things that I find interesting about the course. If you’re a member at the Army you also have Josh’s article for more extensive reasoning on what the key stats are and our Domination Station showing what stats have been the most important historically.

  • The Phoenix Open is an absolute spectacle and draws a massive crowd every year. This tournament is awesome to watch and looks awesome to be at as well, if you’re a casual golf fan and more into the DFS side of things this is definitely the event to watch throughout the week and on Sunday leading up to the SuperBowl.
  • At least at the top of the leaderboard we have seen certain guys finish at the top of the leaderboard consistently – Course History will be something I emphasis more than usual this week.
  • We see a lot of short par fours at this event and not too much trouble for players which makes me emphasis driving distance off of the tee.
  • A point Josh made in his write up that I really think needs emphasizing – just because a guy is chalk does not mean he is a bad GPP play (necessarily). I spend a lot of time in my article and in my analysis discussing ownership and I tend to write up guys who I like that could be lower owned. If you like a guy and he’s over 20% owned you don’t need to automatically pivot to a guy you don’t like at 5%. Instead, ownership should be something you are aware of to find spots where you can pivot and it makes sense – if you thought Rahm was going be 20% owned and you could get Rose for cheaper at 10% it made sense to get the better player, cheaper, at a lower price. Players are usually chalky because they are a good play at their price, as long as you make unique line-ups and find places to pivot you shouldn’t overthink playing a guy whose highly owned.

 

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Interesting Plays

 In this section I will discuss plays that I like/dislike and guys that I find interesting for the week. Because this article comes out on a Monday this list can change, anyone I change my mind on will be discussed later in the week in our PGA coaching channel

Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, Hideki Matsuyama, Xander Schauffele, ($10K DraftKings)

This range surprised me at first to see Xander with the top group. My first thought was that Xander will be much less owned than the rest of the group. However, I also thought that with a few guys last week and the ownership ended up being pretty similar up top. I do think the difference last week was the name recognition surrounding all of the top five salaries. While Xander is 7th in the world and has been playing incredible golf I am still not so sure if that will mean the ownership follows. I will be incredibly interested in Josh’s chalk donkey article and his final thought. Despite all of that, this is a first impression section so my impressions are as follows: I like all four of these guys this week, I am surprised to see Xander in that top group despite great recent play and the resume to back up the salary. Personally, I want all four in my lineup and will likely try to match ownership and be overweight on Xander if he is low. From favourite to least in tournaments right now I think – JT > Hideki> Xander> Rahm

Tony Finau – DK: $9500

Last week I wrote to VIP member how I am extremely underweight on Tony in GPP’s. With a top salary you are going to need a top performance and I simply liked the guys who cost a little more for the week. Ultimately it worked out well for me with Tony being outperformed by four of the five guys with a higher salary. However, Tony played incredibly well and was not held back off-of-the tee or in his approach game. Because of this I like going back to Tony this week. He very likely stays a top 5 player in terms of ownership but I could see it going down slightly this week as I expect Rahm/JT/Hideki to all carry more ownership than the top players the prior week.

Phil Mickelson – DK: $9300

A former winner at this event and a winner in his last tour appearance, Phil could make for a great play this week. With Finau and Fowler (incredible Course History) priced right above him I could see a scenario where we’re all surprised on Thursday at Phils ownership number. I like Phil this week just not sure yet on how much of him I will have.

Chez Reavie, Byeong Hun An, Andrew Putnam, Alex Noren, Cameron Champ– Mid $8K

This range is loaded with guys who do it in different ways,but are all enticing for one reason or another. Cameron Champ should garner a ton of ownership at a very affordable price off of a missed cut – but with two straight poor performances is Champ worth it? Noren had one bad round and missed the cut ,but is priced a little too low based on the field. Putnam has been playing great, An is a course horse and Reavie shined here last year and has also looked good this year. As I said I like all four guys and can see a reason to play all of them – I will definitely have more thoughts on these players later in the week.

Sungjae Im – DK: $7300

Although I did not write him up last week I am still on the Sungjae train and will have him in lineups this week. I think with his performance last week and his price this week I do not think we see Im at too high of an ownership number.

 

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Cash Game Review

I will end each article going over my cash game line-up for the week, breaking down my plays and reflecting for the following week

The Team (1-2) Back in the red.

Patrick Cantlay – MC

Gary Woodland – T9

Abraham Ancer – MC

Hideki Matsuyama – T3

Kyle Stanley – MC

Emiliano Grillo – T52

Hideki and Gary did not get much help from the rest of my team, which ultimately means my cash game team made me no money this week. I started with locking in Cantlay and Matsuyama, the two guys I thought were the best plays of the week in cash. After that I had a decision between paying up for either Woodland or Finau – two guys I didn’t really like in GPP’s because of ownership (I felt you could pivot elsewhere). I ultimately did not feel comfortable with my Finau team (I felt Adam Scott was too risky….) and I ended up on Stanley, Ancer and Grillo. I still like my team and the overall construction despite the result.

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