Schnarr’s Super Picks DFS PGA Preview – The Sony Open

Every week on the PGA Tour a new course means a new set of challenges. This article will examine the course being played and give specific insight on some keys for the week that other previews may be overlooking. This article will also breakdown players who stand out on both FanDuel and DraftKings for Cash Game and GPP formats. Finally, I will be reviewing my picks from before and going into a deeper dive on my Cash Game team in an attempt to better my own process while hopefully helping you with yours. For more updates throughout the week follow me on twitter @_bschnarr

 

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I want to start this article by thanking each and every one of you that have read my weekly article for the DFS Army. Over the past year and a half I have thoroughly enjoyed writing this piece and I hope that I have been able to share a little bit of helpful info to you all. Well I will still write this piece weekly, we have expanded here at the Army and with the addition of Josh on the PGA staff I will be changing my focus a little bit with this piece. Instead of focusing on the course preview, although I will still point out specific points I find interesting, I will be writing up more players that I like/dislike and players I find interesting for the week. As always, I will include a brief write-up of how my plays did for transparency reasons. Finally, as DFS Golf has evolved over the years I have found myself much more regularly focusing on Cash Games over GPP’s. I think although they are much more boring and bland there is still an edge to be had and I will do my best to breakdown my team from the prior week, explain what led me to my plays and hopefully help you become a better DFS Player.

 

Review from last week

 In this section I will break down the players I wrote up from the prior week, how they did and how I played them in my line-ups.

Fortunately for me I took last week off (not a fan of the small field events) so I get to write less, fortunately for you all you don’t have to read this part and relive all of my bad plays that likely lost you money!!!

 

Course Preview

 In this section I will point out a few things that I find interesting about the course. If you’re a member at the Army you also have Josh’s article for more extensive reasoning on what the key stats are and our Domination Station showing what stats have been the most important historically.

 

-A few small things this week, the event is taking place in Hawaii just like last week which gives a small bump to me to those who are acclimated and played last week. I’m certainly not blacklisting players who weren’t in Hawaii and I am not throwing in everyone from the TOC simply for being in Hawaii but if I feel split on two players and this is the difference you know who I’ll be leaning towards.

-Just because there is only two par fives do not discount there importance this week. I often see people writing up how little significance par fives have on par 70’s and while you’ll only have 8 par fives instead of 16 over the course of four rounds that’s still 8 total holes. Of the 878 times these 2 holes were played 66.5% of the time a player got birdie or better, 33.5% of the time they did not, ideally you’ll want your fantasy team to get those easy points and be well above the 66.5% average for the week.

-I think people generally overreact to weather news and overthink their plays based off of what wave they are in Thursday/Friday. However, while I think its usually an overreaction I also think the general public under-reacts (is that a real word?) when there are legitimate weather concerns. when there is a clear advantage for a certain wave that’s when you should change your plays around. This week being in Hawaii is a week where we can see weather become a significant factor and it should be something to monitor in the upcoming days.

-It’s well known and discussed a lot but good putters do get a little more of an edge this week compared to others.

 

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Interesting Plays

 In this section I will discuss plays that I like/dislike and guys that I find interesting for the week. Because this article comes out on a Monday this list can change, anyone I change my mind on will be discussed later in the week in our PGA coaching channel

 

Justin Thomas – DK: $11400 FD: $12300

 The #1 salary on DraftKings and #2 salary on FanDuel looked real good last week with his third place finish. As @dfsupnorth mentioned in his article, JT was second in driving accuracy at 86.67%, a key stat for this week and with his length if he has the driver dialled in we could see JT win here for a second time. I like JT but I think his price makes him the obvious chalk up top. We’ll wait to see where JT ends up as it’s always a little tougher to judge at the beginning of the year but wherever it is I likely want to be over in my GPP line-ups.

Hideki Matsuyama – DK: $9300 FD: $11300

If you’ve regularly read my article you would know I write up Hideki quite a bit, he’s one of the first golfers I ever won an outright bet on so he’s got a special place in my fantasy golf heart. I think the price on DraftKings makes him interesting because it’s enough to make him stand out. All of the signs are bad for Hideki – he came last at the Hero World Challenge last time we saw him play, and he’s had poor performances at this event in his five appearances (MC 2011, 2012, 2013, T78 2015, T27 2017). I’ll be eagerly awaiting Josh’s Chalk Donkey write up to see where he has him pegged for the week. Like I said, all the signs are bad, but when you can get a top player at a real low ownership it can pay off, if he’s coming in real low I don’t mind playing him in a few GPP’s.

Kevin Tway – DK: $7500 FD: $10300

 Severely underpriced on DraftKings makes Tway a great cash game option given what we saw out of him last week. You could argue the price on FanDuel makes him a good GPP candidate on the site as you should see a much lower ownership number on that platform.

Sungjae Im – DK: $7500 FD: $8600

I am joining my fellow writer and jumping on the Sungjae Im train. I am hoping that being the same price as Tway and around other likely popular plays in Piercy and Reavie that we can hopefully see Im at a low number in GPP’s.

 

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Cash Game Review

I will end each article going over my cash game line-up for the week, breaking down my plays and reflecting for the following week

Obviously with taking last week off I don’t have anything to share line-up wise. This part will be more reflection and explaining my thought process for the week. I will not be giving away any line-ups or teasing plays instead I will be hopefully give you insight into how I finalize my team and in turn help you with your own thought process. Anyone can give you the 10 or 15 guys that are underpriced I will try to help you piece together the steps to narrow that down and hopefully in doing so improve my own process.

 

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