Hello and welcome back. My name is FightOn2016 and I am a coach over at Beat The Bookie, primarily focusing on data analysis and building analytical models to help predict sports. This article will give you an insight into our NFL model and how we use it for DFS and for Sports betting for round 1 of the playoffs.
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Last week NFL, my free model plays went 3-0. Here were the excerpts from last week’s article
Both Carolina and Chicago won and the 6 point teaser hit for +150 odds. Massive day last week if you followed the plays.
Things are heating up over at Beat The Bookie! Check out some of our winning screenshots!
Our CBB model is heating up now that we enter conference play. We went 3-0 on Thursday on picks and this user parlayed them together for a 5x return!
Anyway, lets get into the good stuff. My NFL Model as you see below takes every game and runs a predicted score for each team based on about 20 factors that could impact the game, from injuries to a teams offense to the wind at the stadium.
First, below are the top 5 teams that the Model expects to score the most points
Vegas has the Texans as the top scoring team, but my model has the Bears. This is two-fold. 1) Divisional Unders in the Postseason have gone 10-7-1 so we would expect the Texans game to play to the Under. Also, the model believes that the Texans had a bunch of lucky wins and does not believe they are very good, which is why it believes the Colts will win a close game.
Next, lets look at the biggest differences (positive) between My Model and Vegas
With only 8 teams playing, you are going to see overlap from the first and second charts. If you read my article weekly, you will know that those are usually the teams I want to target in GPPs. In this case, the model sees the Bears scoring 0.66 more points than Vegas as well as scoring the most points overall in the week. Next, the Colts rank second on our list of total points and the model sees them scoring 0.36 more points than Vegas.
Lastly, I think you will want a piece of the Chargers this week. Our model sees them scoring 2.78 more points than Vegas this week and I have a blurb that you will want to know down in the free picks of the week section that makes them my top stack of the week.
Stacks I want this week:
- Los Angeles Chargers – 40% – The last time these two teams played, Melvin Gordon was just coming off an injury and was a little rusty. I expect him to be a lot better this week and take a load off of the offensive line to allow Rivers to pick apart the defense. Stephen A. Smith’s favorite play is finally back this week in Hunter Henry who will provide a nice chain mover to their stacked receiving corps.
- Chicago Bears – 30% – We expect them to score the most points this week in a tight game with Philly. I expect a lot of people to be going to Howard and Cohen and the RBs of Chicago, but I will target them with their pass catchers. I will take Trubisky with Allen Robinson and more importantly Taylor Gabriel who will use his speed to beat the secondary multiple times in this game.
- Indianapolis Colts – 30% – how do you not play this team. They are the hottest team in football right now and Luck looks like an MVP. Their RBs will run maybe 15 times in this game leaving about 40-45 passes from Luck to go to his favorite two targets: TY Hilton and Eric “I only catch TDs” Ebron. This is an easy 3 man stack that should cover most of the TDs for Indy.
Sports Betting:
MAIN PLAY: Indianapolis Colts Money Line (2 Units or Max Bet)
Here is the stat that I was referencing earlier. When a team opens up as a +3 or better dog on the road in the playoffs, they WIN 16 of 26 games for a winning % of 62% and a ROI of 30%. We luckily got 3 such games this weekend where this occurred and we are playing all 3 over at BTB. The colts are the main play because they are the hottest team in football and the Texans are overrated.
Los Angeles Chargers Money Line for 1 Unit
Same stat as above as well as the effect that Melvin Gordon will have on this game.
Indianapolis Colts/Houston Texans Under 48.5 for 1 Unit
Stat earlier in the article that said divisional unders in the playoffs have gone 10-7-1 and I expect these teams to likely play a close game that is decided by a late TD drive by Luck.
That is it for me. Once again, if you have any interest in joining Beat The Bookie and working with us to beat Bookies across the world, then either follow the links at the beginning of this article or DM one of Loosmeister, myself, or Anthony P.
Good luck in your contests and betting.