Hello and welcome back. My name is FightOn2016 and I am a coach over at Beat The Bookie, primarily focusing on data analysis and building analytical models to help predict sports. This article will give you an insight into our NFL model and how we use it for DFS and for Sports betting for round 2 of the playoffs.
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Last week NFL, my free model plays went 3-0 AGAIN. This is the second week in a row that my free plays have never lost. Lets make it a third this week! Here were the excerpts from last week’s article
Our max unit play of the day was the Indy Money Line which was never in doubt. Good sweat free betting last week!
Anyway, lets get into the good stuff. My NFL Model as you see below takes every game and runs a predicted score for each team based on about 20 factors that could impact the game, from injuries to a teams offense to the wind at the stadium.
First, below are the top 5 teams that the Model expects to score the most points
This goes along with Vegas for the most part. Vegas has the Chiefs at 1 to score 31.25 points, the Saints next at 29.5, and the Rams third at 28 points. At least in the eyes of my model and Vegas, we know who should be the offenses to target: the 3 best offenses this year. There are no surprises from this list, so from a cash perspective, lock in these teams. With the possible weather in Kansas City, I would and will have a large amount of the Saints in my lineups this weekend.
Next, lets look at the biggest differences (positive) between My Model and Vegas
This is the first week that we see negative differences on this chart. That is because my model likes the Unders in every game this weekend besides the Chargers and Patriots game which it sees as fairly priced. That means I expect a lot of people to flock to the games with high totals thinking that they will score a lot of points, but I will be targeting the lower totals in GPPs as they will get overlooked and on a slate this small, finding that one little edge will help you win.
Our model thinks that the Chiefs and Colts game will score 52.5 points which is a whole 4.5 points below where Vegas is pricing the game. With the weather expected to be snowy and cold, I am shocked that the total has not moved down in this game. On one hand, you get a Stanford QB who plays most of his games in a dome. On the other hand, you get a Texas kid who has never played in snow in his entire life. With snow and ice being an issue as well as the Colts bend but dont break Tampa 2 Zone defense, I expect a lower scoring game and will have limited exposure to that game.
My highest exposures are going to be to the Saints, Patriots, and Rams. The Saints come into this game getting no love from the betting public. The Eagles are receiving most of the bets in Vegas and somehow a Philly team is getting adopted and adored by the USA. Blows my mind. Anyway, like we saw last week, rookie QBs or QBs making their debut in the playoff struggle and Trubiscuit struggled. The Bears D kept them alive, but FolesMagic came back and won it late. Frankly, Trubisky is not Brees and I think we see a barrage of points by the Saints and you will want a lot of exposure to it. Also, this happened this week:
FolesMagic has won its last game of the year in my opinion.
We saw last week that the Chargers shut down the Ravens by utilizing 7 defensive backs instead of linebackers to chase down Lamar Jackson. It worked very well for 3 quarters until Lamar starting actually throwing the ball. Somehow Lamar Jackson had a chance to march down and win the game late in the 4th quarter and had my clenching my butt cheeks together since I/we had the Chargers Money Line. This makes me think the Chargers will be gettable especially given how dominant the Patriots are at home.
Lastly, I see Sean McVay doing what a lot of college coaches have done over the last 5-6 years. Once you know you are set, you hide your trick plays and wait for the playoffs. Well its time to bust them out again and I expect that behind a healthy Gurley, they will put up a lot of points in this game. On top of this, if the Rams can shut down Zeke behind their stud DTs, the Cowboys are going to have a long day throwing the ball with all the injuries they have in the receiving corps.
GPP Stacks I want this week:
- New Orleans Saints – 40%
- New England Patriots – 40%
- Los Angeles Rams – 20%
MAIN PLAY: New England -4 (2 Units or Max Bet)
New England has not lost at home since 2017. New England has not lost a playoff game at home since 2013. Tom Brady on his “down year” ranks 6th in Total QBR 1 spot ahead of Philip Rivers. Not convinced? When The “Screw You” Patriots receive 40% or less of the public money, their record against the spread is 8-0-2. They are currently receiving 33% of the money. Lamar Jackson was able to throw on the Chargers late in the game that was windy and colder. Tom Brady will be in his element in Gillette and will have a field day. On top of this, the way that the Patriots play defense is that they hone in and take the best playmaker off every play. They will key in on Keenan Allen this week. On top of that, Melvin Gordon is banged up. So the Chargers will have to beat Brady and Belicheck behind a rookie in Mike Williams and a red zone threat (who Stephen A. Smith loves) who has never played this year in Hunter Henry. I hate Boston, but give me all the Patriots this week.
Indianapolis Colts Money Line for 1 Unit
Kansas City losing? yes. Indianapolis is 10-1 in their last 11 games. They are coming into this game with a great offense and a very solid defense that will play its bend but dont break offense and frustrate Kansas City. Kansas City will have to go on more 8 or 10 play drives to score instead of busting it over the top with Tyreke Hill. On top of this, this is not only Patrick Mahomes 1st playoff game, it is also his first game played in real weather. He was born in Tyler, Texas (think Dallas), went to Texas Tech and now is here. We saw last week what Lamar Jackson and Mitchell Trubisky did when the lights shone the brightest. I expect the experience of Luck to take over and win this game.
7 point teaser between New England Patriots (+3), Los Angeles Rams (PK), and New Orleans Saints (-1) for 1 Unit
I expect all 3 of these teams to win and it makes for the perfect teaser to get all 3 together at +150 odds.
That is it for me. Once again, if you have any interest in joining Beat The Bookie and working with us to beat Bookies across the world, then either follow the links at the beginning of this article or DM one of Loosmeister, myself, or Anthony P.
Good luck in your contests and betting.