DFS n’ Donuts Shop
The modus operandi of the majority of my articles and podcasts is to deliver compelling evidence through analytics, trends, and useful data as to why a player or team is an ideal target to invest in. In this daily column, I will provide a light breakdown of the slate, give a brief overview of what Vegas has to say about the current week of games and highlight a few significant values based on some analytical data. This article is an early overview of the main slate and should be used as a building block and guideline to develop your strategies and start to envision possible paths to victory.
Salute to Members Success
Last night was a great night for DFS Army VIP members. There were a handful of nice hauls and I figured I would share a few that were shared with us over the last couple of days.
Games to Target and Lineups to Build for Daily Fantasy
This slate looks fantastic, as there are a few standout targets worth discussing and a couple that we likely will have to dig deep to find any value or uncover a sleeper pick. Make sure you pay attention to our news and notes channel for coaching updates and value targets throughout the day as we uncover them via deep data dives.
Top Large Field GPP Stand-Alone (non stacking) Targets
Richaun Holmes has averaged 1.35 fantasy points per minute over the last month and now steps into a situation where he’s the only true low-post presence. While the Spurs aren’t the greatest matchup, Holmes should be able to play 28-32 minutes, potentially more if he’s cooking and stays out of foul trouble. With his potential ceiling, I don’t think he’s priced at value and remains an elite tournament option.
Stanley Johnson could get extra run on Tuesday with both Reggie Bullock and Ish Smith out against the Bucks. While Stanley has been incredibly inconsistent this season, he is averaging 0.84 fantasy points per minute. If he ends up playing upper-20’s minutes then he’s going to be a great “Drop Score” target. Another player who might get some extra burn on Tuesday is Luke Kennard. He’s nearly min-price across the industry as well and we’ve seen opposing two-gaurds have success against the Bucks this season. Kennard has performed well when he’s been given extra minutes and he could find himself in this scenario against the Bucks. Stay tuned to our news and notes channel via our chat service.
Jahlil Okafor is going to be a fantastic target as it looks like he’ll have the opportunity to soak up as many minutes as his lungs and legs can handle against the Rockets. Nikola Mirotic is still out, Julius Randle is highly questionable, Etwaan Moore is out, and minutes should be abundant for Okafor. He’s likely a better cash game option due to his low price-point on FantasyDraft and DraftKings, while his ownership is probably quite low on FanDuel due to his price tag increase above $7,000. I can envision Jahlil playing nearly 36 minutes as long as he stays out of foul trouble. He has had a double-double in 3 out of the last 4 games, including 3 games over 31 minutes played. He is playing out of his mind during this stretch and looks like an elite option on Tuesday at a position I don’t want to pay up at tonight.
Blake Griffin is going to have a usage rate in the upper-30% as he has been at 31.2% or higher in 5 straight games while scoring 29 or more actual points in 6 straight. Whenever Reggie Bullock has missed a game (he’s doubtful), Blake has scored 48.67 DraftKings points per game and is just $9,300. He should be the focal point of the offense. Whatever you do, fade Andre Drummond. Anytime that Drumdog plays against a stretch 5, he gets ruined because he doesn’t spend nearly enough time in the paint to rack up rebounds and putbacks. Brook Lopez is going to play on the perimeter to help space the floor and Andre won’t be comfortable. He’s an easy “X” off our player list using our Domination Station Optimizer.
Top Game Stacking Target
The OKC and ORL game looks incredibly appetizing for a game stacking target. Aaron Gordon seems like a solid “hybrid lineup” target, as his floor and ceiling combination fits the mold perfectly. He has scored 33.50 fantasy points in 6-of-8 games including 3 games over 42.00 fantasy points. If running out Aaron Gordon, make sure to stack the Thunder side with none other than Paul George. While his price is increasing due to his hot stretch, he’s at a position that I prefer to pay up at for this slate while I have numerous cheap options that I like at point guard instead of paying up for Russell Westbrook. PG13 has scored 50.10 fantasy points or more in 7 straight games, including 60.10 or more points in 2 of the last 3 contests. He is on fire from the field as well, scoring 31 or more in 4 of the last 5 games and has two double-doubles over that time frame.
If you want my FULL player pool for NBA daily fantasy and my personal takes on what to do – head on over to DFS Army and use promo DONUTS for 20% off and get this info and plenty more. Monitor the news and notes channel in our chat and make sure you read our “if-then” analysis and research blurbs to make sure you are prepared to take advantage of any type of edge we can get. I’ll mention the value options in chat as they open up through the day.
Salute to the Member Success
Our members and coaches create a type of bond that goes beyond fantasy sports discussion and daily fantasy coaching. Often, you’ll find members and staff sharing conversations about life in general, sports, family, work, stress, and testimonies. It’s a really unique community and one that drove me to leave every other company I was working for at the time to focus on this one. Our “Member Hall of Fame” is littered with results from the 2015-2019 seasons. I hope that we as a company and community, are able to change the life of a player or even potentially an entire family!
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Fortune favors the bold, go make your own luck!
-Donuts