DFS n’ Donuts Shop
The modus operandi of the majority of my articles and podcasts is to deliver compelling evidence through analytics, trends, and useful data as to why a player or team is an ideal target to invest in. In this daily column, I will provide a light breakdown of the slate, give a brief overview of what Vegas has to say about the current week of games and highlight a few significant values based on some analytical data. This article is an early overview of the main slate and should be used as a building block and guideline to develop your strategies and start to envision possible paths to victory.
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Games to Target
This slate looks fantastic, as there are a few standout targets worth discussing and a couple that we likely will have to dig deep to find any value or uncover a sleeper pick. Make sure you pay attention to our news and notes channel for coaching updates and value targets throughout the day as we uncover them via deep data dives.
BKN@BOS
With Kyrie Irving and Marcus Smart out, it’s time to literally lock both Terry Rozier and Jaylen Brown into all lineups across the industry for cash games. I would argue that Rozier is a lock in all formats and all sizes while Brown is fade worthy in tournaments if you’re trying to jam in James Harden and Donovan Mitchell. I also look to Marcus Morris who has a healthy usage rate and points per minute boost without these two on the court and has played exceptionally well over the last month (1.01 ppm since Dec. 14th).
I think a great tournament strategy is to run back a Boston stack with D’Angelo Russell. He should play in the low-30’s minutes and have a usage rate right around 30.0% as well. Without Marcus Smart chasing him around the court, D. Russ should be able to score at will and take 20-24 field goal attempts. I love his tournament ceiling at his price tag on FanDuel, FantasyDraft, and DraftKings.
MEM@HOU
James Harden has received quite the price increase as he’s at the highest tag he’s ever received. For good reason, too. He has scored 32 or more points in 16 straight games, 80 or more fantasy points in 6-of-16, and for as long as Chris Paul and Eric Gordon are out – he will likely continue. I am not concerned about the Grizz defense or pace whatsoever. Clint Capela is a steal over on FantasyDraft at $13,300 and his price tag on FanDuel and DraftKings is respectable as well.
NOP@LAC
This game should be the one to target with your Celtics plug and play options. Both teams are poor defensive units and play fast. The first time these two teams met, the Pelicans won 116-109. In the second contest, the Pelicans were downed by the Clippers 129-126. Anthony Davis has scored 67.75 and 59.25 fantasy points in two games against the Clippers this season and he’s a premier option on Monday. Jrue Holiday is the forgotten man as of late due to all of the guard value that has been on the main slate over the last couple of weeks. However, he’s an elite option and a perfect price point pivot off of Donovan Mitchell. He scored 71.00 fantasy points against the Clippers in their last meeting and has scored 40.00 or more points in 11 of the last 14 games. Elfrid Payton has a fantastic ceiling at his current price tag on all sites and should be stacked with Anthony Davis as the two of them have had a strong correlation over the last two seasons.
If you are looking for a game stack, run it back with Sweet Lou Williams whose price tag on FanDuel and FantasyDraft is an absolute bargain. His floor and ceiling are perfect for tournaments as he’s normally lower owned due to the concern in minutes played. However, the closer the game is and the faster a team plays the more minutes Lou receives. I would not be surprised to see him score 45 or so fantasy points.
Daily Fantasy Picks, Plays, Lineups and Strategy for FanDuel, DraftKings, and FantasyDraft
Monitor the news and notes channel in our chat and make sure you read our “if-then” analysis and research blurbs to make sure you are prepared to take advantage of any type of edge we can get. I’ll mention the value options in chat as they open up through the day.
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