Welcome back after a 3 week break. Along with this being the first UFC card of 2019 it’s also the first card on it’s new network (ESPN). This week we have a 13 fight card taking place in Brooklyn, New York. I am excited to start off 2019 on a positive note and continue helping you out with my breakdowns.
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As always have some fun in tournaments this week. Just remember the Golden Rule! While chasing after the big payout is enticing always remember bankroll management. I am a firm believer in the 80-20 rule. Which is 80% of your allocated bankroll for the night in cash games and 20% in tournaments. Remember to take advantage of our Research Station and Domination Station. Plus check out the podcast, and follow me on Twitter (@MMACashAssassin) for the latest MMA and DFS Army news! Let’s break down these fights.
For those of you new to MMA here is a breakdown of the scoring used on Draftkings.
DFS MMA UFC On ESPN+ 1 Fighter Advice
Fights to Target In Cash
First off before I give breakdowns here. What we are looking for in cash games is safety with a nice floor. It might be taking a high priced favorite in a good spot. It could also be a value play based on odds and pricing. Often times in cash I will look to stack a fight specifically if it has the potential to go 5 rounds (always the main event on the card or a championship fight). Now both sides of a fight may not be cash viable in a fight but, at least 1 of them is under this group.
Dillashaw (-210) 8.9k vs Cejudo (+190) 7.3k
Dillashaw is moving down a weightclass for this fight. He is a good striker (lands 5.38 Significant Strikes per minute) and has good power. He also has ok takedowns (TD’s). Cejudo is a solid striker (3.42 SS’s per minute). He is a solid wrestler and has good TD’s (2.31 per fight).
Vegas is split on this fight going to decision or not. The very, slight lean is decision (-120).
With this being the main event we have potentially 5 rounds of MMA goodness here. For that reason in cash games I am stacking this fight and moving on.
In tournaments it looks like Dillashaw will be the more popular play on draftkings. I understand the reason why. In wins he typically puts up 100+ draftkings points. He is also making a 30 pound weight-cut in 3 weeks for this fight. For those reasons Cejudo is my preferred play. In saying this I am not fading Dillashaw. I more than likely am going to have 100% exposure to this fight. All in all this will be a great fight! My preferred play in tournaments will be Cejudo.
Gillespie (-475) 9.4k vs Medeiros (+420) 6.8k
Gillespie is a solid striker (3.19 SS’s per minute) and has good power. He was a National Champion Wrestler in College and has solid TD’s (7.01 per fight). Medeiros is an ok striker (4.59 SS’s per minute). He is a tough fighter and often times likes to try and fight at range.
Don’t overthink this one. Gillespie is popping off as the best value on the entire card when looking at our DFS Army exclusive Research Station. Gillespie is someone I am locking into my cash lineup and will also have heavy exposure to in tournaments. I will more than likely have no exposure to Medeiros.
Hernandez (-185) 8.6k vs Cerrone (+160) 7.6k
Hernandez is a decent striker (2.99 SS’s per minute). He has solid TD’s (3.82 per fight). Cerrone is a good striker (4.09 SS’s per minute). He has a solid ground game and solid submissions.
Vegas is expecting this fight to end Inside The Distance (ITD) -195. With each fighter carrying respectable props (Hernandez +140 to win ITD and Cerrone +260 ITD).
Looking at the numbers from our Research Station Hernandez looks to be a solid play. My main concern with him is he has only had 2 fights in the UFC and Cerrone has had 29. For that reason at his salary I think Cerrone makes for a solid play in all formats. I will have some exposure to Hernandez in tournaments as well after seeing our Research Stations numbers. My preferred play however is Cerrone.
Lipski (-178) 8.8k vs Calderwood (+167) 7.4k
Lipski will be making her UFC debut in this fight. She is a solid striker and has good power. She has a good ground game and decent submissions. Calderwood is a decent striker (5.9 SS’s per minute). She is decent in the clinch a and has ok submissions.
Vegas is siding with this one going to the judges scorecards with finishing prop of (-150) fight goes to decision.
I think Lipski is going to be able to dictate where this fight goes and could potentially get a finish here. I like her in all formats. I most likely have any exposure to Calderwood. I personally would much rather pay up $200 for Cerrone or down to Cejudo or someone else I will be touching on next. Overall my preferred play is Lipski.
Benavidez (-220) 9k vs Ortiz (+180) 7.2k
Benavidez is a solid striker (3.51 SS’s per minute) and has good TD’s (1.2 per fight). Ortiz is a good striker (2.91 SS’s per minute). He is a decent grappler and has good TD’s (3.01 per fight).
Vegas finds it very, likely this one goes to decision (-260). With the victor in this scenerio being Benavidez (-115 wins via decesion).
I agree with the fact that Benavidez likely wins. But, at his 9k salary on draftkings getting a decision win will mean he most likely doesn’t reach value. 
Ortiz does interest me. Especially in cash games looking at our Research Station numbers above. Overall my preferred play is Ortiz (mainly as a cash/gpp punt).
Fights to Target in Tournaments
Unlike the cash fights from above. These tournament fights carry greater risk. While they may have a lower floor these fights have higher ceilings. Which when mixed with the right amount of cash plays can yield huge dividends in tournaments.
Menifield (-260) 9.1k vs Moreira (+240) 7.1k
Both of these fights are making their UFC debuts in this fight. Menifield is an ok striker and has big power. Moreira has ok submissions and decent TD’s (has a blackbelt in BJJ).
This is your prototypical striker vs grappler matchup.
Normally with so many unknown factors this fight wouldn’t interest me as much as it does. But, with the 2nd highest ITD prop on the entire card (-515) it warrants some exposure.
My prefered play of the 2 is Menifield. In a win he would most likely be winning via TKO/KO. I will have moderate exposure to him for that reason (20-25% personally in tournaments). If you have a stronger read on the fight I don’t hate the idea of Moreira at the same exposure. My preferred play is Menifield.
Hardy (-475) 9.5k vs Crowder (+420) 6.7k
Hardy is relative new to the sport of MMA and making his UFC debut. He is a great athlete though (former NFL Pro Bowler). He is a ok striker and has big power. Crowder isn’t very good overall. Unfortunately I think he is the sacrificial lamb here. The UFC likes what it sees here in Hardy and I believe they are setting him up for a dominant win.
Vegas has this pegged with the highest ITD prop on the entire card (-1050). With Hardy having a juicy ITD prop of (-350).
Hardy is the most expensive fight and if you can afford him I have no problem using him in all formats. The only reason I have Gillespie over Hardy in cash is I like the upside more with Gillespie. If, Hardy gets too quick of a finish it could actually limit his upside. Crowder I am fading completly. Hardy is my play in this fight period.
Teixeira (-115) 8.3k vs Roberson (+105) 7.9k
Teixeira is a tough fighter. He has a solid ground game (2.16 TD’s per fight). He has shown recently that he does have a susceptible chin. Roberson is taking this fight on very short notice (9 days). He is also moving up a weightclass. He is an ok striker (2.35 SS’s per minute) and has decent power.
Vegas likes this fight to end early (-285 ITD). With both fighters priced so, close to eachother let’s see what our Reaearch Station thinks.
I tend to agree here. I think Roberson not only has the cheaper price tag on draftkings but, I think he actually carries more upside. I also think he might be relatively low owned coming in on short notice. I will have some exposure to Teixeira as well. I don’t expect to have more than 20-30% exposure to either fighter. Overall my preferred play is Roberson.
Sandhagen (-475) 9.3k vs Bautista (+420) 6.9k
Sandhagen is a solid striker and has good power. He is very aggresive and has shown toughness in his 2 prior UFC fights. Bautista is taking this fight on short notice (1 week). He is making his UFC debut and comes in with an undefeated record. He is an ok striker. He is a solid grappler and a decent wrestler.
I don’t have much interest in Sandhagen personally. I would much rather pay up for Hardy or Gillespie. I don’t hate the idea of using Bautista in a few lineups though if you are doing 20+ of them. I mean its a long shot but, he will have very little ownership. Overall not a fight I want to target a ton. Bautista is my preffered play but, I do think Sandhagen does get the win.
Neal (-170) 8.5k vs Muhammad (+160) 7.7k
Neal is a solid striker and has good power. He has a solid ground game and ok submissions. Muhammad is coming into this matchup on a 4 fight win streak (all via decision). He is a good striker and has ok TD’s.
Vegas is leaning on this fight ending early with an ITD prop of (-150).
I am going to side with our Research Station here and side with Neal in this matchup. I do think Muhammad is live here though so I will have exposure to him as well. Not a fight I will have a ton of exposure to but, my preferred play is going to be Neal.
Stewart (-160) 8.7k vs Rencountre (+150) 7.5k
Stewart is making his UFC debut. He is an ok striker and has decent power. Rencountre is a decent striker and has ok TD’s.
Vegas likes this fight to go to decision (-145) with Stewart winning in this case (+178 to win via decision).
Overall not a fight I want a lot of exposure to. It is the 1st fight on the card though so for that reason I won’t be full fading the fight. I will probably have 10-20% on both. Overall my preferred play is Stewart.
Most Fade Worthy Fights on Card
VanZant (-145) 8.4k vs Ostovich (+135) 7.8k
Fight is (-195) to end via decision. I think VanZant wins the fight but, I just like targeting other fighters with more upside.
Edwards (-125) 8.2k vs Bermudez (+115) 8k
Bermudez is more than likely past his prime. I do like Edwards here. If he touches Bermudez on the chin that could be it. I just don’t know if I can trust him enough. I do think he offers some value as a cash play if you are stuck in his price range.
If any of my thoughts change I will post them in chat.
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