It’s Playoff Time! Wildcard Weekend kicks off the playoffs and we have you covered at DFS Army with Short Slate Debate: Playoff Edition!
My name is Josh Thomas, and I write the Chalk Donkey article for NFL VIPs as well as focusing on the showdown/single game slates on both sites and the Monday-Thursday Slate. In this article, I’ll break down the best options at each position for the Saturday Slate and give some pivot options off some of the chalkier plays, as well as some strategy for roster construction.
Slate Breakdown:
It’s playoff time baby! Wildcard weekend kicks off on Saturday, but I’m covering the Sunday slate of games for those of you who are playing on Fanduel or the short slate on DK. You can also use this info to make lineups for the 4-game main slate on Yahoo or Draftkings! Since the Sunday Short Slate is a main slate on Fanduel, I’ll use Fanduel pricing in this article.
Before we get started I want to make sure you know that you DO NOT need to use all your salary on these short slates. I have lineups with 7K left on the table, and some with $100. The Winner two week’s ago of the big 8$ contest on DraftKings left $4700 in salary on the table!
The first game of the Sunday Slate has the Chargers heading all the way across the country to take on the Ravens despite having the better record. Too bad you play in the same division as the Chiefs, Chargers fans!
If playing the four-game slate, you’ll likely want to avoid the Sunday games at least in terms of playmakers as both games are set to go off at a total of 41.5. Though if you are playing the short slate on Sunday like I am you are forced into a play here and guess what? Someone’s going to score some points here!
Lamar Jackson has the safest floor of any QB on this slate with the rushing upside that he brings to the table. In the 7 games that he’s started the lowest total, he’s had on Fanduel is 16.06 points…against this very same Chargers team two weeks ago. Jackson was unable to rush the ball as well against this Chargers team with the return of Joey Bosa, but he was able to put up his first game with over 200 passing yards of the season completing 12 of 22 pass attempts.
On the other side of the ball, Father of 12 Phillip Rivers had his worst game of the season in this matchup, putting a measly 5.34 FD points, and actually threw for less yards than Jackson. Rivers is strictly a contrarian play on this slate with easily the toughest matchup. The Ravens D is no joke and if they are going to win this game, its likely on their back.
In a short slate with not many RB options, Melvin Gordon becomes quite appealing regardless of salary. In the game two weeks ago, he was limited, coming back from injury, and was still able to produce against a difficult Ravens run defense. With the slow pace that the Ravens play at, especially at home, its tough to envision a scenario where Gordon smashes, just because the opportunities won’t be plenty, but the Chargers will likely lean heavily on the run game and with Austin Ekeler limited with a groin injury, Gordon becomes a bit of a lock and load on the short slate.
Across the ball, there is a timeshare among the three backs, Gus Edwards, Kenneth Dixon, and Jackson. Dixon and Edwards split carries last week and neither are that appealing. Dixon as a salary saver, but the floor is a zero. I’d rather target RBs in the next game, though its possible one of these two has a multiple TD day and breaks the slate at somewhat low ownership, so having exposure in MME is smart.
At WR, there aren’t a lot of sexy options on either side of the ball considering, that both QB’s threw for a combined 370 yards last time they played. Keenan Allen is expensive and makes a better DK play than anything, and while I love John Brown‘s game-breaking speed, he hasn’t broke 4 FD points since the beginning of December. On a short slate though you have to make a decision somewhere and if you can afford him, Allen is the elite play.
At TE, I’m going to be avoiding this game for the most part as well, but Mark Andrews is quickly becoming one of Lamar Jackson’s favorite targets. He was targeted 5 times last week to lead the team. Another sneaky option though may be Hayden Hurst. The preseason stud has been injured most of the year but saw 4 targets in last week’s win against Cleveland. He’s cheap and could easily break the slate if he finds the end zone.
Overall, this isn’t a very sexy game and I expect it to be a bit of a knock em down drag it out slow slugfest.
Final Prediction: Chargers 21-Ravens 17
The afternoon game on the slate takes place at Soldier Field with the Bears hosting the surging Philadelphia Eagles! The Bears are touchdown favorites in a game that is projected to have a total of 41.5 as well.
Mitchell Trubisky is easily the best quarterback option on this slate as he has the highest team total and best matchup against a porous Eagles secondary. He will be my highest owned QB on the short slate and likely my highest owned on the four-game slate as well. The Eagles pass defense is ranked 25th in fantasy points given up to opposing QB’s. Trubisky can be paired with any of his receivers or even running back Tarik Cohen who is essentially a receiver out of the backfield though he’s a better play on DK.
Can Big $%^& Nick continue to get it done in the playoffs? Here’s the long and short of it…No. The Bears defense is good, really good. Khalil Mack might eat Nick Foles. Like seriously…that might happen. You might want to get some exposure to Foles and the Eagles offense in GPP but really, the Bears should eat them alive.
Jordan Howard is an elite Fanduel play in a game that sets up for the Bears to dominate and lean on him heavily late. I’m only playing him in lineups without Trubisky though.
The stable of Philadelphia Eagles backs should have a tough go of it against the #1 ranked defense against the run. It’s a contrarian play but stacking Foles with a player like Darren Sproles who can catch balls out of the backfield might be an interesting GPP play.
At WR trying to sort through and find out which WR to stack with Trubisky is difficult. All three starting WR’s are dealing with injuries but were full participants in practice this week. Allen Robinson gets the best matchup and sees the most volume of any of the receivers. Taylor Gabriel is option B while Anthony Miller is option C.
Foles loves Alshon Jeffery. Like literally loves him, and he makes a nice run it back option in your Trubisky stacks. He’s expensive though on Fanduel and if you can’t afford him, Nelson Agholar or Golden Tate are both good GPP options to run it back. Even though I don’t trust Foles and the Bears D has been great, their pass D has been a bit suspect, so one of these three should have a decent game.
At TE, you likely will want to get some exposure to Zach Ertz if you can afford him. A great contrarian play though may be fading him entirely. He’s extremely volatile, especially with Foles at QB and he could dud at massive ownership.
Final Prediction: Bears 28 – Eagles 17
Along with coverage of the two games here, I’ll be providing exposures and strategy for the Showdown/Single game slates in our VIP coaching channels. Our VIP’s get access to all the showdown charts and data like this that show what the optimal lineup construction is on each site!
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Quarterback:
Give me some Mitch on this slate baby! I think he goes underowned, even on the short slate and he has the best matchup of any of the QB’s.
If I was MME and building 150 lineups here is how I would split my exposures:
Mitchell Trubisky – QB Bears: 50%
Lamar Jackson – QB Baltimore: 30%
Phillip Rivers – QB Chargers: 10%
Nick Foles – QB Eagles: 10%
You should be almost double the field with 50% of Trubisky. On a short slate like this though, you can make the decision to go all in on a QB though and have 100% ownership. If you pick right you can smash, if not you likely aren’t dead in the water anyways as the spread between these 4 likely isn’t huge.
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Geek will have full SHOWDOWN/SINGLE GAME podcasts for both of these games as well!
Running Back:
At running back for the short slate, there aren’t a lot of great options and it comes down to if you want to pay up for Melvin Gordon or not.
I’m personally just eating the Gordon chalk and making it work everywhere. He’s far and away the best RB on this slate and while the matchup isn’t great, he’s likely worth the elevated price tag.
Jordan Howard is a great play as well but should be used only in lineups without Trubisky as it’s likely they don’t hit value together.
Tarik Cohen is a great stack partner and we project him to be one of the best values on the slate.
After these three, you are really just taking shots and hoping something hits. I have a mild interest in both of the Ravens RBs, as well as Darren Sproles and even Wendell Smallwood who has seen an uptick in usage lately. Josh Adams while the lead back and a guy I love I won’t have much exposure here.
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Wide Receiver
There ain’t much here… and that’s probably a compliment to this group.
Keenan Allen is far and away the best receiver on this list, but the matchup is incredibly difficult. For me, it comes down to stacking.
Here are my top stack partners for each QB.
Mitchell Trubisky – Allen Robinson
Lamar Jackson – Michael Crabtree
Phillip Rivers – Keenan Allen (sneaky GPP stack partner though is Mike Williams)
Nick Foles – Nelson Agholar (while everyone will stack Jeffery, Agholar was the dude last week and draws a nice matchup)
Playing the 4 game slate? My boy Dabbingpuggle has you covered with his weekly ‘Draw Plays’ article that covers the best WR/CB matchups on the slate. Trust me this guy pulls some GEMS! (Remember that Albert Wilson game in week 6? Puggs was all over it!) Here’s a sneak peek!
Check the rest out here!!—-> Puggle’s Draw Plays
Overall, this group of receivers is going to be difficult to navigate, in MME I plan on being heavily invested in Robinson, Gabriel, Agholar, and Jeffery and getting equal shares to the rest.
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Tight End:
I’m really coming around on the idea of fading Zach Ertz on this slate. Yes, he’s clearly the stud of the slate, but he is SO volatile and draws an almost impossible matchup against the Bears D. He’s a stud and could easily hit 20 FD points, but I think there’s also a good possibility that he has a single-digit day. The salary savings allow you to pay up elsewhere as well.
The rest of the TE’s don’t have a solid enough workload to go all in on them, but as I stated earlier, I have quite a bit of interest in Mark Andrew and want some exposure to Hayden Hurst as well.
The Eagles have defended TE’s extremely well, but pairing Trey Burton with Trubisky is a nice play.
Some people will chase the return of Hunter Henry but he’s likely to be extremely limited if he plays and I won’t be chasing that zero floor and likely only 7 point ceiling.
One HUGE benefit of being a DFS Army VIP is access to “Geek’s Picks” sheet where he breaks down his personal player pool for the slate!
Check out this write up on Jamaal Williams this week and get him in a few lineups as he’s in a fantastic spot!
Check of the rest of Geek’s player pool and picks here! —> Geek’s Picks
Defense:
Defense on these short slates is always really tough and they are all viable. None of them are so bad that you need to avoid them. Typically I do one of two things.
- Play the cheapest defense available.
- Play whichever defense I have the least amount of players going against.
For me, there is no clear-cut must play defense this week. I was pretty heavily invested in the Texans last week and it paid off, but this week there’s no defense that really stands out. I’ll have the most shares of the Titans, and be pretty equally invested in the other three after that, pending who I’m rostering.
Here’s how I rank them and my plan on exposure.
- Bears- 40%
- Ravens – 30%
- Chargers – 20%
- Eagles – 10%
Final Thoughts:
I love the small 2 game slates and think its easier to cash most weeks than the Main, but the line between cashing and is not pretty sharp because it’s only two games. Be smart with your bankroll and contest selection though and you should have a profitable week!
I think that this is a great week to get contrarian in GPP. The chalk that is expected can easily bust and there are tons of viable options. Get a little funky and let’s take something down!
Let’s have a great week! I can’t wait to see those helmets crushing at the top of the leaderboard!
Both of these games will have showdowns and I’ll have full breakdowns with my anticipated exposures in our coaching channels!
Also, give me a follow on twitter @dfsupnorth as I’ll be posting updates there as well as useful retweets leading up to the games Saturday!
Don’t just take my word for it…
