DFS n’ Donuts Shop
The modus operandi of the majority of my articles and podcasts is to deliver compelling evidence through analytics, trends, and useful data as to why a player or team is an ideal target to invest in. In this daily column, I will provide a light breakdown of the slate, give a brief overview of what Vegas has to say about the current week of games and highlight a few significant values based on some analytical data. This article is an early overview of the main slate and should be used as a building block and guideline to develop your strategies and start to envision possible paths to victory.
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The NBA Daily Fantasy Playbook
This slate looks fantastic, as there are a few standout targets worth discussing and a couple that we likely will have to dig deep to find any value or uncover a sleeper pick. Make sure you pay attention to our news and notes channel for coaching updates and value targets throughout the day as we uncover them via deep data dives.
BKN@ATL
This is a phenomenal spot to target and grab some value in order to save some salary to pay up for James Harden and Giannis Antetokounmpo on Wednesday. It also is a great game to potentially fully game stack for tournaments.
The Nets have a massive pace up spot in Atlanta (+ 6.2) and the Hawks are ranked 30th in defensive efficiency. The Nets have a 118.0 point implied total (ITT) and have several players priced at a discount. First and foremost, I want a lot of exposure to D’Angelo Russell, as he has scored 40+ in 4 of the last 5 against the Hawks and is coming off a poor outing last game, hopefully suppressing his ownership slightly. The other guard I’ll be targeting is Spencer Dinwiddie, as the Hawks are allowing 14% more points to his position this season than the league average. While Joe Harris and DeMarre Carroll are both returning to the rotation on Wednesday, I still think Shabazz Napier is a nice value over on FantasyDraft at just $7,600 and the potential for 24-28 minutes and mop up duties if the game gets out of hand. The Hawks are a smaller team, too, which means the Nets can continue to run a three guard lineup if they want as they have done that quite a bit over the last five games with Napier, Dinwiddie, and Russell.
The Hawks started Jeremy Lin on Tuesday and he played 35 minutes and scored 36 fantasy points. Linsanity is back! If he starts again tonight, he’ll be one my core options across the industry as he faces his former franchise. John Collins should have his way with the Nets down low and his price makes him an ideal game stack target, but I prefer to pass on him as a stand alone option. Trae Young should garner some attention as well, as he looked much better last night with Lin along side him taking some defensive pressure off of him. Young scored 34.25 fantasy points in 30 minutes of play with a 32.3% usage rate, which was the highest he’s had over the past 15 games.
PHI@WAS
It was a really ugly game on Tuesday night, with the Sixers up by 30 points early in the 3rd quarter. However, it is the second leg of a back to back (home and away) and we could see Philadelphia rest a player or two. Monitor whether or not JJ Redick is active and if Jimmy Butler or Joel Embiid hit the bench for a rest day. If so, plenty of value should open up again on this unit and they would be primary low-end options to open up salary for the bevy of studs on this slate. I’ll mention the value options in chat as they open up through the day.
For the Wizards, it’s really only Bradley Beal that I would even think about using as the rest of the Wiz are price up and starting to thin out one another’s minutes now that Otto Porter has rejoined the rotation. As a matter of fact, if this game stays close it’s likely due to Beal having a superb night, meaning if you plan on running Joel Embiid or Ben Simmons, you should probably just run it back with Bradley Beal. I doubt any of these guys exceed value enough to win you a tournament unless the opposing player keeps pace to make it a competitive game. These are the little things that the public normally doesn’t think about when building lineups. Stay sharp.
DAL@PHO
The Suns have the 28th ranked efficiency rating on defense, which means the Mavericks are in superb position to take advantage of the Suns who are on the second leg of a back to back. The main issue with the Mavs right now is trying to figure out who to target and who will be available. Unfortunately, this is a later game and we might not know who is active on either roster until well after lock. Monitor the news and notes channel in our chat and make sure you read our “if then” analysis and research blurbs to make sure you are prepared to take advantage of any type of edge we can get.
On the Suns side, it all hinges on whether or not Devin Booker and his 35% usage rate will be on the court. If he’s out, we can likely go back to the well with De’Anthony Melton who would play upwards of 30-33 minutes and has an affordable price point across the industry. Josh Jackson had a very good game but was overshadowed by Kelly Oubre. Both should be viable options again should Booker miss, however, Jackson will have half of the ownership of Oubre after his explosive Monday night performance. I like the idea of rolling out Deandre Ayton, who ended up playing just 30 minutes in a game where I thought he’d push the mid-30’s and have an extremely high usage rate. However, he finished with just a 22.1% usage rate and scored 39.50 fantasy points. I think that might be his floor in this matchup if Booker misses and I doubt many people are going to be on him tonight.
I am saving the rest of our analysis (including what to do with James Harden and Giannis Antetokounmpo) and information for our premium chat members who will also get my personal player pool and/or CORE plays for the night. If you want it, then SIGN UP HERE and use promo DONUTS for 10% off.
I will be making videos for members as I learn how to use my new software, laptop, webcam, and mic. Lineup construction, specific site format builds, MME player pools, and really whatever people need help on will be discussed via the videos. A quick teaser below:
Episode 1 (draft) of the DFS n' Donut Shop video series (well, not really). I am going to have a blast making these for you all! Tomorrow's @FantasyDraft $25 looks pretty solid!#DFS #NBA THIS IS GOING TO BE A BLAST @DFSArmy 🍩🏀 pic.twitter.com/TYBMOBm0uB
— Mitch ☕️🍩🎙 (@DFSnDONUTS) January 9, 2019
Two huge NBA wins in the final 3 days of the 2018 season. I’m going to be doing VIP videos and strategy webinars for members in the coming weeks. There might not be a better time to sign up as we roll into 2019 with vigor!
I want to suggest to any members of the DFSA to check out this “How to Make MME Lineups in 5 Minutes“ article that I wrote for our VIP members. It’s full of photos, examples, and includes an easy to follow outline. If you’re trying to grow your bankroll and MME then you need to give this brief read a moment of attention.
Closing Remarks
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-Donuts