It’s time for one of my favorite events of the year, the Waste Management Phoenix Open! 

My name is Josh Thomas, and I am a PGA and NFL Coach here at DFS Army! Welcome to the 2019 PGA Season! We here at DFS Army have got you covered this year with my weekly preview out on Sunday Nights, Chalk Donkey article breaking down the ownership projections, where to pivot, and GPP strategy out Tuesday Nights, and our Research Station that is full of more information than you could ever need!

The Farmers’ Insurance Open turned out to be a very nice week for those of us here at DFS Army. Justin Rose took home the crown in a truly impressive performance at a course that has held US Opens, and will do so again in 2021. Strangely enough almost all of his wins on the PGA tour have come at courses that have held US Opens at some point (or were a US Open themselves). Rose’s performance was an all around stunning performance, but this Bonobos deal has him dressing like a 55 year old retired Dentist. Rose was our top pivot in the above 9K Range in last week’s Chalk Donkey article and here is what I wrote up for our DFS Army VIPs

Seriously, any time you can get the number one player in the world at reduced ownership, I’ve just made it a rule to do it. That really can apply to any of the top 5. Players are there for a reason, if they are underowned, you need to take advantage of that EVERY. SINGLE. TIME.

Rose had himself a great week, and Adam Scott showed up out of nowhere with a new putting grip that helped him roll in some points. It was really his iron play though that put him in a top position, he was 3rd in SG: Approach for the week. While the putter was good, and he gained strokes in all three of his measured rounds, it let him down with a few short misses on Sunday that could have been the difference in Solo 2nd and a win.

The Beat the Bookie PGA Card that I post in here weekly had its first big win of the year with a Hideki Matsuyama T5 at +1100, which was a nice chunk of change to cover all the other bets. Hideki was severely underpriced at 66-1 and if a few putts would have gone his way on Saturday we could have had a real big sweat Sunday afternoon.

We almost snagged an Adam Svensson T20, and before Spieth’s meltdown he was sitting T5. Golfs a game of inches, and so is golf betting, but as my grandpa says,  “Close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.”

This week the tour heads to the Waste Management Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale Stadium Course with the famous Par 3 16th that turns into what some call ‘The Coliseum” with the stands all the way around the hole and the fans going nuts! It should be a fun week, let’s get to the course breakdown!

Last week, DFSArmy VIP took down 10K in the Driving Range on DK using our research station and articles at DFSArmy! This could be you!

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Course Breakdown:

The Waste Management Phoenix Open has been held at TPC Scottsdale in since 1987 and it has been aptly nicknamed “The Greatest Show on Grass” because of its relaxed standards for fans, often encouraging them to make noise and cheer for players. Some players thrive in this atmosphere and some don’t, but it’s not always who you think. Hideki Matsuyama is one who comes to mind as a player who on the outside really doesn’t give you much, but for whatever reason, turns his game up a notch in this atmosphere and even cracks a smile!

The course is a par 71, coming in at 7266 yards.  It is a par 35 on the front and par 36 on the back and played a little over half a stroke under par last year. With two of the three par 5’s on the back 9, it played a little easier than the front, but only by a half a stroke. Last year’s winner, Gary Woodland, shot a whopping -18, which is actually pretty in line with the other winning scores, the only outlier being Phil Mickelson’s ridiculous -28 in 2013.

The greens are overseeded Bermuda and typically run fairly fast, around 12 on the stimp. As a whole this course is very gettable, with easy to hit fairways and greens, the trick is getting the ball in position on the green to give you a look at birdie and an easy read. The one thing players have complained about here over the years are difficult to read greens.

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Players with strong wedge games are at an advantage here and so are guys who hit it far. The bombers are able to get the ball deep down the fairways and have a wedge in when others may have a 9 iron. The rough isn’t so penal that you can’t get it close, which is another benefit to the bombers. If they hit it hard and it goes a bit off track they are still in good shape.

The one tricky thing with this course is how different it will play from the AM to the PM, or even during a round. When there is moisture int he air in the AM, the ball won’t run out nearly as far as it will in the afternoon when it’s dry. The difference can be as big as a Driver/6 Iron to the green in the AM, to 3 Wood, PW in the afternoon. Because of this, the field is actually only 132 players as they tee off a little later due to the frost in the ground.  Everyone has to play one round in the AM and one in the PM, but it’s possible we might see a slight advantage if there is any sort of weather forecast for Thursday/Friday.

Note, with only 132 players in the field, and top 70 and ties making the cut, getting 6/6 through the cut line will be essential.

There will be tons of narratives to sort through this week. Many players are from the area and even members. Some have great course history or recent form. The weather might spin up a tee time advantage or a million other things. While I love a good narrative as much as the next guy, and I ALWAYS roster a player in MLB on his Bobblehead Night. It’s important to not read too much into them. There is always some sort of edge but don’t go overboard chasing it, its typically a -EV move. One of my favorite things to do in DFS golf is to play the exact other side of the narrative in GPP’s. Everyone is chasing AM/PM tee times? Load me up with PM/AM. More often than not these narratives don’t pan out, and you can leverage the lower owned players that are still in great spots just weren’t in the ‘right’ draw.

One thing, that puts the DFS Army VIP’s at a huge advantage is the Domination Station. Check out how that works here!

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Key Stats: 

Key Stats to look for this week – Birdies Gained, SG Off the Tee, SG – Approach, Driving Distance (length is huge here!), and Projected Course Score.

You can find all of these key stats in our DFS Army research station accessible ONLY for our VIPs.

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The Field:

In this section, I’ll cover who is in the field this week, the odds, any pricing discrepancies, and a few of my favorite plays on first look!

Jon Rahm leads the way in the betting market, and on Draftkings at a course that he has had quite a bit of success at over the years. He hasn’t won, but is 3 for 3 in cuts made including a top 5. This is essentially a home meet for the former ASU pro and will likely garner of ton of Draftkings ownership even at the highest salary. His recent form is incredible, and I’ll personally be paying up for him here, though I won’t touch him in the betting market.

Justin Thomas follows Rahm in the betting market and is smashed in between Rahm and two-time winner here Hideki Matsuyama. JT will likely come in way underowned in DFS this week given the class of player he is, and if it looks likely that he’s less than 10% owned I’ll be smashing that ownership just like we did with Justin Rose last week.

Rickie Fowler is always in play at this event with finishes of 11, 4, 2, and 46 in his last four trips. I think he comes in underpriced in DFS and Sports Betting and is a guy I’ll have some heavy exposure to this week.

Phil Mickelson is always in play here as he considers this a bit of a home course as well. Coming off a win he’s in a great spot to have some success.

Going down the board a bit, there are some great plays, particularly Byeong Hun An who I’ll get to in a bit, Cam Champ, Austin Cook, Keegan Bradley, Adam Hadwin, and Martin Laird all checking quite a few boxes for me. I want guys who pound the ball off the tee, or make birdies or both if I can get it.

Aways down the board GPP play for me this week will be Joaquin Niemann. Niemann was everyone’s favorite less than 3 months ago, and for a time was consistently priced in that 8.5k -9K range. Now he is all the way down at 7.2k and 125-1 to win the tournament. Niemann had a TURRIBLE round four at Torrey after a pretty nice week otherwise. He shot an 80 and had to make a birdie on 18 to get there. He lost more than three strokes putting in round four and just under three strokes around the green. DFS Golf is a game of recency bias and that awful performance will be on everyone’s minds as they come to this week and build their rosters, likely lowering his ownership significantly. I’m a Niemann truther and think he’s going to contend in Majors for years to come and if I can get on him at low ownership at this price, yes, please!

Beat the Bookie Betting Card:

Something new I’m adding each week to this article is my personal betting card for the week for Outrights, First Round Leaders, Top 5’s and Top 10’s. The real bread and butter with golf betting is tournament and round matchups but I’m saving those for our Beat the Bookie VIPs!

Just 5 outrights that stuck out to me as soon as odds dropped, including a few that were priced up compared to other sportsbooks.

Rickie Fowler at 22-1 is a play that is more or less just a FOMO play. His history here is so good, and had he come in playing a little better I think he easily would have been in that 14-1 range that Xander Schauffele is (which I don’t really understand).

This is a perfect course set up for Cam Champ. He should be able to grip and rip it over the bunkers and go to work. I’ll bet him every week at courses like this. Great DFS Play too at $8300 on DK.

Byeong Hun An is a guy I’m all in on this week. DFS, Betting, One and Done I’m all in. Benny An as he is better known is coming off a fantastic T12 finish at the Omega Dubai Desert Classic and was the 36 hole and 54 hole leader here two years ago before struggling to a 6th place finish behind a Hideki Matsuyama win. This is a great course fit for him and I think he is FAR too long at 66-1.

Keegan Bradley fits the bill for another bomber who should have some success here. SG Off the Tee is a huge stat here and Keegs is one of the best.

Marty Party Laird is another player with great course history and good current form that makes for a little bit longer of a shot at 90-1. Laird is 7-10 in made cuts here with 5 top 25’s and 4 Top 10’s. Laird is a local here and had a nice week at Torrey last week before a Sunday 75 derailed his top 30 finishing position.

When T5/T10/T10/FRL odds get posted I’ll be updating this page with everything you need to know about my card!

I’ll have Head to Head and full tournament matchups posted for our Beat the Bookie VIPs on Wednesday. These are truly where you can make your money in golf betting, while not as sexy or as big as an outright win, they are much more profitable.

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Final Thoughts: 

This is a fun week and one that we can really play the ownership game. For example, if Justin Thomas is looking at massively low ownership we can make an overweight play on him, same as Rickie Fowler. Gary Woodland is a guy I haven’t mentioned yet, but I imagine behind chalk Hideki Matusyama, he comes in 2nd highest owned at his price. He’s a great course fit and coming in with solid form. Remember, in GPP playing chalk isn’t bad, you just need to differentiate elsewhere!

We will have content for you all through the week at DFS Army. Our research station and domination station optimizer will be updated on Tuesday and I will have my full Chalk Donkey article breaking down all the ownership and GPP strategy for our VIP’s on Tuesday night! If you aren’t a VIP yet, use code UPNORTH for 20% your first month!

Also, give me a follow on twitter @dfsupnorth as I’ll be posting updates there as well as useful retweets leading up to this weeks event!

Check out some of this year’s winners!

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