Welcome to the first Chalk Donkey article for 2019 DFS PGA Golf Season! The first event of 2019 is the Sentry Tournament of Champions!
My name is Josh Thomas, and I am a PGA and NFL Coach here at DFS Army! Welcome to the 2019 PGA Season! We here at DFS Army have got you covered this year with my weekly preview out on Sunday Nights, Chalk Donkey article breaking down the ownership projections, where to pivot, and GPP strategy out Wednesdays, our Research Station that is full of more information than you could ever need, and the best optimizer in the business!
The PGA Tour kicks off the 2019 portion of the season with the Sentry Tournament of Champions which is held annually at the Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort. To play in this event you have to have won an event in the 2018 season. 34 of the 37 winners from last year will be teeing it up in Hawaii this year on one of the most unique courses the players will play this year.
Dustin Johnson returns to defend his title and Brooks Koepka hopes to improve on his DFL finish. It’s a NO CUT event which makes it a bit more difficult for those of us who do the research. The smaller field makes it more likely that someone could just randomly throw together a lineup and win. And sometimes with these events, it feels like that’s what we should do! Never fear though, we have you covered with everything you need to dominate this event!
Course Breakdown:
The Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort is a 7,411-yard par 73 that is typically a birdie fest. The average winning score over the last 9 years has been -22.3. This tournament has been recently dominated by Americans with 8 of the last 9 winners and 5 of the last 9 runner-ups being American. Typically, players in the top 25 in the world dominate here as well, so caution should be taken if rostering a player who had a win in an opposite field or weak field event (I’m looking at you Brice Garnett).
The Plantation Course is a par 73, 36 on the Front and 37 on the back. The players will face four par 5’s, eleven par 4’s and three par 3’s. The extra par 5 makes a huge difference in the scoring as the par 5’s all play at -.3 strokes or better, that being said, they don’t give up a ton of eagles with only 17 occurring during last years event compared to 599 birdies. Still, Par 5 scoring will be something to look at, particularly long par 5 scoring two par 5’s over 550 yards.
A staple of this course is the MASSIVELY wide fairways. I can’t believe Tiger Woods isn’t playing this year because he likely wouldn’t miss a fairway all week which is saying something. On average the field hits 72% of the fairways. The wide fairways play a role in players being able to attack these greens which are large as well. The field averages 82% of greens in regulation! That’s a crazy number and one of the highest you will see all year.
There are other ways to get it done though, last year’s champion Dustin Johnson only hit 65% of Fairways and 77% of greens in regulation and was simply able to overpower the field with his driving distance and strokes gained off the tee. A fantastic round with his irons in round 3 helped as well.
The greens are Bermuda grass and fairly slow. Players have complained in recent years about some of the green surfaces but the PGA has been working to red0 some and make them more playable. Being a coastal course (where isn’t there a coast in Hawaii?) the wind typically plays a factor with players hitting tee balls into the breeze on multiple holes. While long ball hitters like DJ have won here, shorter hitters aren’t out of it by any means. Brian Harman finished third last year and Zach Johnson has won here before as well.
Have you used our Domination Station for PGA yet? It’s the best optimizer in the business! Check out how to use it here!
–>Domination Station PGA Tutorial <–
What is a Chalk Donkey?
First, let’s break down what I consider to be ‘chalk’. Let’s look at each price range and what is considered chalk there. (DK pricing is used for a guide)
Over 10K: >25% Anything over 25% in this range is considered chalk, and could even go down to 20%. Some weeks ownership is pretty evenly spread in this range, and some weeks one player gathers all the ownership and becomes a Chalk Donkey.
9K: >20% Again, any time over 20% of the field is on a player in this price range we would consider them a chalk donkey.
8K to 7.5K: 15%-20% This is a little trickier in this range, but I consider anyone over 15% chalk. DK has been jamming a bunch of guys in around 7.5k lately and we’ve seen guys get up there in ownership.
Below 7.5K: >10% Players are priced here for a reason, and oftentimes one or two become what I call DFS Darlings and garner a ton of ownership While you usually have to eat this chalk in cash, you want to swerve it any chance you can in GPP’s.
One thing to remember as you construct lineups, players are ‘Chalk Donkeys’ for a reason, they are perceived to be good plays. Don’t fade the ‘Chalk Donkeys’ just because they are going to be highly owned. Very rarely does no chalk hit, and often times you find some of these ‘Chalk Donkeys’ in GPP winning lineups. Fading the chalk is strictly a leverage play, in that if that player plays poorly you are in much better shape not playing them.
Key Stats this Week:
In this section, I’ll cover what I feel are some of the key stats this week. We get lots of questions in slack about what to look for in the RS and here are some of the things that I’ll be focusing on this week for the Sentry Tournament of Champions.
Before we get into the stats this week, I wanted to provide you guys with a link to some info about Strokes Gained Data. Strokes Gained is a confusing topic and DFS Army member (And Milly Maker winner) @redkacheek has put out a great article explaining how they work better than I ever could over at his site Fantasy Golf Bag. I normally don’t link other sites but this is just too good not to share. Give it a look here! How Do Strokes Gained Stats Work?
Value Tab:
The first thing I look at every week when I open up the RS is the Value tab. Who is popping as a value this week. This is pretty easy to find as the better the value, the darker the green box. The value tab looks at Vegas odds and our projections, versus the salary FanDuel or DraftKings have assigned to that player.
Typical of these smaller field events we have guys at the bottom end of the salary scale presenting some of the biggest values. DFS Darling Cameron Champ also presents a great value though it’s likely that he will be one of the highest owned players on both sites.
I included the early drifts on here as I found it interesting that Patton Kizzire has been bet down a bit. He’s essentially min price on both Draftkings and Fanduel and has a stigma of being an awful golfer after he went through a real tough stretch last year after his second win of the season. He missed 10 of the next 18 cuts and really lost his game. He had a nice end to the season after the PGA Championship making 8 consecutive cuts into the fall swing (two no-cut events..but still) He finished 15th here last year before winning the next week at the Sony Open. At his price and likely single digit ownership, I’ll have some shares of Kizzire.
Fantasy Points Gained:
What do we want our golfers to do in DFS? Score more fantasy points than everyone else. This stat looks at how many fantasy points players gain on the field on average. It’s also adjusted for strength of the field.
No surprises here as all of these guys are not only top players in the world but some of the best fantasy scorers out there. Webb Simpson is underpriced this week even given the strong field and will be one of my highest owned players. He hasn’t played here in a few years but has two 3rd place finishes.
Projected Course Score:
Projected course score takes the sum of how many fantasy points players gain on each type of hole on the course. It’s a good way to find out who is a course fit here and statistically should have success. This week with the small field, I want to look at who the top projected course scores are and who the bottom ones are.
Well, this looks almost identical to the fantasy points gained but Jon Rahm now makes an appearance. No surprise that these guys are birdie makers and should have success here. What this group does well though is score on short par 5’s of which there are 4 on this course.
Above is the top 5 fantasy scorers on short par 5’s. Again, see the overlap, you can build a real nice core with the guys who show up on these lists multiple times. Byrson DeChambeau, Jon Rahm, Webb Simpson, and Dustin Johnson are a solid core to mix and match lineups with. This group is likely four of the highest owned players so you will need to differentiate elsewhere in your lineup. You can fit them all in a lineup with my boy TPJ (Ted Potter Jr.) but you also have to throw in Satoshi Kodaira which is not something I’m too excited about.
Other key stats to consider this week, that I’ll get into in my breakdown of the Chalk Donkeys:
Birdies Gained, Medium Par 4 Score, Driving Distance, SG: Approach (last 50)
One thing, that puts the DFS Army VIP’s at a huge advantage is the Domination Station. Check out how that works here! Domination Station PGA Tutorial
Who are this week’s DFS Chalk Donkeys?
With such a small field I’m changing this section of the article up this week. I’ll identify the top 2 owned players this week and then I’ll offer up three low owned pivots that can help you take down a GPP. I’ll also give you my core GPP plays. Cash is basically GPP this week with the small field and I’ll be avoiding it entirely, and you should too.
When you are building this week, salary really doesn’t matter. It’s more important to make ownership plays and try to find the five golfers that finish in the top 7-8 for the week. To take down a GPP you absolutely need to have all of your golfers in the top ten if not better. Its feasible that that lineup could be 5000 less than the salary cap. It’s also possible that it uses all of it. Just don’t feel bound to the salary cap this week. One thing I would suggest though is not using all your salary cap, especially in GPP. It’s human nature to try to get the best possible value you can and if a player is more expensive he’s a better play right? Not always, and everyone will want to max their cap creating dozens of duplicate lineups.
And now, here my friends, are this weeks’ Chalk Donkeys:
Jon Rahm: DK $9800/FD $10,500
Projected GPP ownership: Over 40%
Jon Rahm will likely end up being either the highest or second highest owned player in GPP’s and for good reason, he’s playing fantastic golf right now (he just won Tiger’s tournament), has good course history (2nd last year), and is discounted off the top tier of players.
Rahm is the prototypical golfer you want for this course. He’s long, accurate, makes birdies, and is aggressive. He’s a great wind player which is going to be a factor this week and typically performs well on coastal courses. The one concern I have with Rahm is his putting.
Rahm has struggled on Bermuda greens in the past which is pretty typical of any European who plays on the US Side. The slow greens will also likely affect Rahm.
That’s grasping at straws though, Rahm is an excellent play this week and he has a real chance to win here, the big concern is the ownership. Is he such a lock that you can eat the 40% ownership?
Game theory would say to outright fade him. His odds to win are similar to guys around him with half the ownership, i.e Rory McIlroy and Jason Day. If you fade a chalky Rahm and he isn’t top 5 you are likely in a great position with your lineup, and if he ends up like Kyle Stanley last year who was 40% owned and finished 30th, you are crushing almost half the field in GPP.
This is a week that I’m not likely to play too heavy and because of that, I’m more likely to just flat out fade the chalk and hope it pays off. Rahm is one of those guys that I’ll have a bit of exposure to but will have 4x less than the field. He’s an extremely volatile option as compared to some of the other options around him who will be less owned.
Dustin Johnson: DK $11,000/FD $12,000
Projected GPP ownership: Over 40%
Multiple ownership projections are showing him at over 40% owned across the industry and as the highest priced golfer, often the casual player just clicks on his name and moves on with the rest of their lineup. What we saw last year though was the exact opposite of that. The highest priced player often came in under-owned as players just assumed he would be highly owned and faded. While I don’t necessarily think that’s the case with DJ this week. I can see a scenario where he is less owned than projections and the 4th or 5th highest owned player which makes me extremely interested in him.
Here’s really all you need to know about DJ this week. He’s played here six times since 2011 and has NEVER finished outside the top ten. He could be 90% owned and he’d still be a good play.
This course is a perfect fit for DJ, its wide fairways let him grip and rip and if he misses the rough isn’t penal at all. The greens are soft and allow you to fire at pins and the slow surfaces actually benefit him as a pretty good putter.
Not only that, check out his form from 2018.
DJ finished in the top 10 of a tournament 56% of the time!!! That’s 11% better than his next closest competitor, Justin Thomas. He was top 5 33% of the time or one out of every three tournaments. That’s insane, the only player better was Bryson DeChambeau who absolutely smashed last year.
This is a smash spot for DJ and likely chalk that I’m eating. Again, game theory says to fade him, but I’m going to have him as a core piece here as I think this is a can’t miss spot and he comes in under his ownership projection of 40+%
Other highly owned players (over 25%) Brooks Koepka, Justin Thomas, Bryson DeChambeau, Marc Leishman
GPP Pivots:
In this section, I’ll look at some of the pivot options we have in gpp to get away from the chalk donkeys above. This week I’m looking for super low owned (relative in this field) plays that could top ten if they play well. Typically this might be a player that has poor current form or bad course history but we have seen guys come out of the blue and play well here, though typically having some experience at the course is important. In a 34 man field, anything can happen!
Aaron Wise: DK $7500/FD $8200
Projected GPP Ownership: <15%
Aaron Wise taking on the appearance of a linebacker. I project him as a late second-rounder who could move up into the first with a solid 40 time. pic.twitter.com/YtrZRKjmLJ
— Jonathan Wall (@jonathanrwall) December 22, 2018
While already long on tour, Aaron Wise bulked up over the off-season adding on 25 pounds of muscle. I’m interested to see what this sort of strength is going to do for him and curious if it inhibits his swing at all. That being said, I’m all over Wise at his price tag and projected ownership this week.
Wise is 7th in projected course score this week and 6th in birdies gained. The reigning PGA Tour Rookie of the year was active in the fall swing, never finishing lower than T16, meaning that his game should be sharp as he heads into this event.
A west coast guy, he should be comfortable on the bermudagrass and playing in the wind. He’s off early(ish) on Thursday and should avoid some of the heavier winds that those late in the day will see.
A solid all-around player, Wise makes a great pivot off a chalkier Marc Leishman in the same price range with similar expected outcomes.
Rory McIlroy: DK $9600/FD $10,700
Projected Ownership: <18%
Anytime we can get a top ten player in the world at reduced ownership compared to his counterparts we need to jump all over it. Rory is projecting under 20% owned and isn’t get ANY buzz around the industry. If Bryson Dechambeau hadn’t tore up the FedEx Cup playoffs, the story likely would have been the resurgence of McIlroy with his finishes of 12th, 5th, and 7th, in the last three playoff events.
McIlroy has never played here but one thing to note is his positive splits on bermudagrass. He gains almost .6 strokes on Bermuda compared to his average. One of the biggest concerns with Rors is always the putter, so it’s nice to see that he’s a bit more comfortable on this surface.
Another player who has never played here, I think that Bay Hill is a comparable course and Rory won there last year. A course where you can pound drive and hit wedges into receptive greens is right up his alley and he makes a great pivot off the chalkier players around him, with a similar pedigree.
Andrew Putnam: DK $6600/FD $7500
Projected GPP Ownership: <10%
More of a low owned dart throw than anything, I have some interest in Putnam here this week. He played well into the fall and this is a course that should suit his game. While not the longest player on tour, he does hit driver well and he’s got a great approach game. He has a similar skill set to a player like Billy Horschel who everyone is talking up this week as a great play here.
Other low owned GPP pivots: Matt Kuchar, Brandt Snedeker, Ted Potter Jr. Patton Kizzire, Francesco Molinari
Lots of the “shorter hitters” are coming in with low ownership projections and that’s likely because of the narrative that this is a bombers course but it’s worth noting again that Steve Stricker and Zach Johnson have both won here and Brian Harman was third last year. Loading up on some of these shorter guys at low ownership is a great strategy.
GPP Core:
Here are the core players that I will be using to make my GPP teams this week. Obviously they won’t be the only players I use but it can give you an idea of who I’m on.
Dustin Johnson
Rory McIlroy
Patrick Reed
Bryson DeChambeau
Jason Day
Aaron Wise
Andrew Putnam
Patton Kizzire
Final Thoughts:
This is a funky week. Be smart with your bankroll. Don’t play much. Crazy things happen at this tournament every year because of the small field size and you almost have to have the absolute nuts to win anything this week. Get creative and don’t be afraid to leave salary on the table.
As ownership trends start to finalize this week, I’ll post some updates in my coaching channel and make sure to join in and ask any questions. This is going to be a great week and I can’t wait to see some of those green screens and winning lineups!
Join us in our coaching channels this week and let’s win some money! I’ll be there off and on all week, but will be in helping build lineups from 9:00 to 10:00 PM CST on Wednesday night getting you guys ready to take down some huge GPP’s!
Also, give me a follow on twitter @dfsupnorth as I’ll be posting updates there as well as useful retweets leading up to this weeks event!