BigMarley’s Tiers Breakdown – DraftKings
Last year I won a trip out to the Live Final for DraftKings to compete in the PickEm’ (Tiers) Championship. I won my ticket to that with a $2 entry and I ended up winning $5,000 at the Live Final. This year, I am going to share all my Tiers secrets with the DFS ARMY members and hopefully, some of you guys can get an awesome experience like that this year.
The first thing I want to say about Tiers is that you don’t necessarily want to make a lineup going for the most points you can score. Instead, think of what the popular plays will be and try to be different by still making good picks. With Tiers, there is no salary, so people flock to the “best” plays. That makes it easier to know which players will be chalky. If you look at projections for each tier, the highest projected player will usually be the most owned guy in that tier. However, they don’t always score the most. Fading the chalk players is the way to go in GPPs and this format makes it easier for you to figure out who those chalk players will be.
With that said, let’s dig into this Playoff round 2 Tiers slate:
T1- I think Patrick Mahomes is clearly the top play from this tier, especially with no salaries. If you are playing cash games, then I would just plug him in and move on. However, I expect him to be massive chalk in this tier and probably over 50% owned in all formats. For GPPs, I think fading that massive chalk and going with Andrew Luck or Drew Brees is the move. I think the Colts are live to win this game, or at least keep it close. If the Colts are behind in this game and playing catch up, then it should be Luck doing most of the work and I wouldn’t be shocked if he outscored Mahomes here. Having him at half or less of the ownership of Mahomes is a gamble I am willing to take, and if I am making 20 lineups then I think I would go 50/50 on him and Brees in GPPs. Drew Brees averages over 10 more DK points in home games and he scored over 33 DK points at home earlier in the year against this Eagles D. I think both guys should be much less owned than Mahomes in this spot and I think both have a solid chance of outscoring him. If that happens then we can pass ~50% of the field in this tier and eat more chalk in later tiers.
T2- This tier should be much closer in ownership and I don’t expect any one guy to be much more owned than the others. For that reason, I think you should just go with the guy(s) you like the most in this group. For me, the top two plays are Jared Goff and Nick Foles. I love targeting Goff in home games where he averaged more than 12 DK points per game vs on the road. He averaged 28 DK points at home and now they are in a must-win game with a banged-up Gurley. I think Goff is going to throw more in this game, so they don’t overwork Gurley, and I think that is going to help his fantasy stats a lot, assuming they get the win. I Goff is the only QB in this tier I am predicting to get a win, so he is my top pick. I also like using Nick Foles in lineups where I used Brees in T1. I think the Saints could win big, but if this game ends up shooting out then both QBs should do well and I like stacking this game in a few GPP lineups. If I am making 20 lineups, I would guess that I have 60-75% Goff, and then throw some Foles in my PHI/NO stack lineups.
T3- I am going to fade Todd Gurley II and Tyreek Hill this week for tiers and I will be focusing on the other 3 guys for my lineups. I don’t trust the Gurley injury enough to use him over these other guys, and the Colts are great at stopping the deep ball, so I don’t see Hill breaking the slate either. Ezekiel Elliott is the only guy on the entire slate that I think will get up to 30 touches, so with no salary, I think he is the top play in this tier. Even if the Cowboys are down in this game, Zeke will still get a lot of work through the air and he isn’t game flow dependent at all. He has also been a stud all year long and if he got 40 DK points in this game I really wouldn’t be too shocked. I do think he will be the highest owned guy in the tier though, so if you are fading the chalk in this tier then I like the Saints guys. Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara were both double-teamed the first time they played the Eagles and they ended up being them through other guys. I don’t think they get doubled again here and I think they both have monster ceilings at home in the dome. In last year’s playoffs, Kamara got every carry inside the 10-yard line and I don’t see why that wouldn’t continue again this year with the skill he provides. I also think Thomas gets 10+ targets in this matchup and he should get a lot of red zone looks as well. Both of those guys will be mixed into my Brees lineups, but if I am not using Brees then I would prefer Kamara over Thomas.
T4- The IND/KC game has the highest total of the week at 57, so I want to target Travis Kelce and T.Y. Hilton for my lineups in T4. Kelce is my favorite KC skill player to target this week and the Colts give up a lot of points to opposing TEs. We can also stack Luck with Ebron in a later tier, and just use Kelce as our run it back player from this tier. However, if you aren’t using Ebron later then I think TY needs to go in the Luck lineups. KC doesn’t have anybody who can keep up with TY and I expect him to get a lot of looks in this game if they are playing from behind. I do prefer TY indoors, but if the Colts are going to keep this game close, or win it, then TY is going to have to be a factor. If you aren’t using Luck in T1 then I think Kelce is the play here. The Colts should be focused on not letting Hill get passed the secondary and that should leave Kelce with single coverage in the middle. I think he gets 10+ catches and sees the end zone in this matchup.
T5- This would be an easy all-in spot on Melvin Gordon III if it weren’t for his injuries. With the injuries, I am worried about him and I think we could even fade him here. I still might use MG3 in some lineups, but he definitely isn’t an all-in guy now and I will probably mix him into lineups with Robert Woods. I think Cooks gets the Byron Jones matchup and Gurley is banged up, so that tells me that Woods should get a lot of looks. I think he has the highest floor in this tier and I also think he has one of the highest ceilings as well. If MG3 is going to be limited at all, then this will be an all-in spot for me on Woods instead. The Saints are good against TEs and Latimore will be covering Alshon Jeffery, so I don’t care for him or Zach Ertz, unless I am using Foles. With my Foles lineups, I think either guy is fine, and I would prefer Jeffery of the two. I also think the Colts will be playing from behind, so I don’t like Marlon Mack for that reason.
T6- The top 3 guys for me in this tier are James White, Eric Ebron, and Damien Williams. If you think the Pats are going to be playing from behind in this game, then I think White is the play. If they are behind then White should be the RB in the game and he will get a lot of targets as well be one of the top redzone looks. If you are using Luck, and not TY, then Ebron is the play for me here. Ebron is going against the 32nd ranked team against opposing TEs and if TY is still hurting then Ebron should benefit from that. He is also a red zone monster and has 15 TDs on the year. I like using Williams as my run it back player if I am stacking Luck/TY. Williams has earned this #1 role for KC and I expect him to get a lot of work. Especially if they are in the lead. I will be throwing these guys into lineups based on what makes sense most with each lineup build.
T7- This is a tough tier with multiple plays that makes sense, but no clear must have plays. This is going to be the tier I reference you guys to the Domination Station for and if you have a preference in this tier then I suggest you just go with your gut. If not, here is what the DS is projecting for T7:
T8- This is an ugly tier and I don’t feel great about anybody. For me, I am only going to target the top two guys, and it will mostly depend on what I did in T1. If I used Luck in T1, and I don’t have TY and Ebron, then Chester Rogers is in play here for my Luck stacks. If I used Brees in T1 then I like going with Darren Sproles instead. Sproles looks like he has taken the lead role at RB and we saw him get some goal-line work last week as well. If I knew he would get 15 touches again like he did last week, then I would be all-in on him here. I think with his talent and speed he has the highest ceiling from this tier, and this is also a revenge game. If I don’t have Luck in my lineup, then Sproles is going to be my guy. I think the Eagles are going to be playing from behind and if that is the case then Sproles should be in the game and getting targets in the receiving game.
Good luck to everyone in the DFS ARMY for round 2 of the playoffs! I hope to see some more huge winning screenshots this week and if I don’t win the big Tiers GPP, I hope one of you do.
If you have any questions you can hit me up in my Slack channel at #Big-Marley-NFL-MMA