Welcome back to the Shark Autopsy Report, NFL Edition Week 15! If this is your first time reading the Shark Autopsy Report, Welcome! Over the course of the remainder of the NFL season this article will deconstruct winning DraftKings lineups in contests where the dark waters of Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP) contests that are ripe with sharks. Navigating these waters where the sharks smell blood in the water is not easy, but the DFSArmy has you covered, providing you with the essential daily tools to help our VIPs turn into sharks!
The article looks at multi-entry GPP contests, specifically the Milly Maker contest.
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In this edition of the Shark Autopsy Report, we look at the illustrious Milly Maker contest, a massive GPP tournament that pays out $1 million to first place. A true tale of the tape contest that everyone in the industry knows about, discusses and writes about extensively throughout the course of the week. Many think that lineup construction to win this tourney is all about the most contrarian construction possible, sometimes that is the case, but most of the times that is not the case.
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Synopsis of the Shark Autopsy Report
Lineup deconstruction is what all of the DFS analysis sites are pushing these days. Every site is wanting to get in on the action of making sure their DFS site is breaking down the winning lineups of these massive payout contests that are the DraftKings’ Milly Maker, FanDuel’s Sunday Million and Yahoo’s Million Dollar Baller contests.
The Shark Autopsy Report is different from the other DFS site’s lineup breakdown articles that you can read online, as there are a multitude of these types of articles. The Shark Autopsy Report dives deeper than those other lineup deconstruction articles showcasing: the top ten winning lineups (position-by-position), the number of lineups the top 10 DFS players entered into the contest, the average amount spent by position in the winning lineup, top 10 player ownership percentages, and week-to-week salary distributions of the top 10 lineups to determine if there’s salary correlation amongst the top ten lineups, to help better predict winning lineup construction in future weeks.
DraftKings $3M Milly Maker Contest
As DFS players, fish and sharks alike, we are so attracted to the light shining down from the DFS Universe of the $1M dollar first place prize in the DraftKings Milly Maker contest, and we pump a multitude of our bankrolls into these contests annually. Because of this, I understand why DFS sites are analyzing these winning lineups. It should be part of your repertoire as a DFS player to revisit the prior week’s winning lineups, not just for the Milly Maker and Sunday Million contests, but all of the contests you entered to see how the winning lineups were constructed. Additionally, you should be looking at your own lineups to determine WHY certain plays in your lineups went off and WHY other plays did not. This will ultimately make you a better player, but it will help you determine trends you may not have otherwise noticed if you were not reviewing over past week’s lineups.
DraftKings $3M Milly Maker Contest Top 10 Breakdown
The trend continues for the winner of the Milly Maker for an astounding 15th week in a row, the winner of the Milly Maker DID NOT MAX ENTER the tourney. The Milly Maker winner in week 15, Mbonson entered a single bullet into the Milly Maker and came out a MILLIONAIRE! Gone are the days of Max Multi Entry to take down the colossal tourney.
Mbonson mixed in two high owned plays amongst his contrarian lineup construction. Rostering a stack of Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Falcons Defense at an average field ownership of 6.2%, netting his lineup 65.24 for the 3-man stack. Typical roster construction doesn’t roster a defense with the QB and WR 1, but when the Cardinals come into town supporting an O-Line adjusted sack rate of 8.5%, even a middling D-Line with a middle of the road adjusted sack rate can apply pressure and cause a rookie QB to make mistakes. But, Falcons defense made Rosen wish he stayed in Arizona, sacking him 7 times, 2 interceptions, and 1 fumble recovery. It’s surprising that the Falcons defense wasn’t higher owned in week 15. Kenny Golladay, Mike Evans and Julio Jones beasted in perceived tough matchups that led to their lower ownership levels. Its plays like these that will win you a Million! Joe Mixon facing Oakland Raiders defense was a dream matchup, and at 41.6% field ownership, the Milly Maker field figured that out. Though the Raiders aren’t THE worst defense versus RBs in PPR format or non-PPR format, they aren’t good either, ranking in the bottom 10 of the league. Dalvin Cook also had a dream matchup versus a bottom 10 of the league ranked defense against the RBs in PPR format and non-PPR format. Miami leaks yardage gained on the ground and through the air to RBs, though Dalvin got the bulk of his yardage gained on the ground. But the play at RB that made Mbonson’s team climb and stay on top of the rankings after the 1 PM games was Marlon Mack at 2% field ownership. Mack’s matchup on the surface was a tough matchup against the 5th best defense versus the run, but… they rank 21st versus the pass to RBs. Game flow was one-sided in the DAL v. IND. game and Dallas couldn’t get anything going.
The winning lineup incorporated 3 RBs and 3 WRs at an average salary spend of $5,300 for RBs and $6,833 for WRs. As you can see below, 9 of the top 10 lineups utilized the RB in the Flex position.
Top 10 Lineups at a Glance
Weekly Salary Distribution
Over the course of the 2018 NFL season, we will be comparing on a weekly basis how the top 10 scoring Milly Maker lineups have distributed their salary across each position within their lineups to determine if there’s correlation week-to-week amongst the top 10 lineups.
The field ownership graphic showcases the first 3 quarters of the NFL season’s highest owned plays and the percentage of those plays that were in the top 10 scoring Milly Maker lineups. What can be gleaned from the graphic is that of those top 10 scoring lineups in the weekly Milly Maker contest are either over-weight or under-weight on the week’s highest drafted NFL players as compared to the tourney’s overall field ownership. In week 15, the top 10 lineup’s field were bullish on Joe Mixon and Dalvin Cook as compared to the field. Otherwise, the top 10 lineup’s field was bearish as compared to the field.
The top 10 scoring lineups take a stand on a play or two and either go under or over weight on those respective plays that week.
Hmm…. GAME THEORY IS THE NAME OF THE GAME TO SCORING IN THE TOP 10 OF THE MILLY MAKER!
Which Player Salaries Encompass Top 10 Milly Maker LUs
We now have a good amount of data from the first 15 weeks of the season and those top 10 scoring lineups across all 15 weeks. As a result, what trends can we see week in and week out. Week 15 continued the trend of spending down for the winning lineup’s defense, spending below the $2,900 threshold. 73.3% of the first 15 weeks, the winner of the Milly Maker spent at or below $2,900 on a defense. The highest owned defense in the winning Milly Maker lineups spanning the first 15 weeks of the season were the Ravens used in 3 different weeks lineups, followed by the Texans at 2. Over the first 15 weeks of the season, 60% of the time the winning Milly Maker lineup employed an RB 1 whose salary was at or greater than $8,000. Over the course of those first 15 weeks, 13.3% of the first 15 weeks, 2 RBs in excess of $8,000 were employed in the same weekly winning Milly Maker lineup. Over the course of the first 15 weeks of the season, 40% of the time the winner of the Milly Maker spent at or above $6,000 on the QB position. The highest owned QB in the winning Milly Maker lineups spanning the first 15 weeks of the season was Mitchell Trubisky used in 3 different weeks lineups, followed by Matt Ryan, Patrick Mahomes and Ryan Fitzpatrick at 2.
Over the course of the first 15 weeks of the NFL season, 60% of the time the winning Milly Maker lineup rostered 3 RBs, and the range of average salary spent on the 3 RBs ranged from $5,333 to $8,267. Of these 60% winning lineups that utilized 3 RBs set, only 1 week’s winning lineup had two RBs in excess of $8,000 in the same lineup. Of the first 15 weeks where 3 RBs were used in the winning Milly Maker lineup, only 2 of those weeks did the winning lineup employ an RB lower than $5,000 in salary. Salary distribution at the RB slots is vital to winning the Milly Maker!
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