Welcome back to the Shark Autopsy Report, NFL Edition Week 13! If this is your first time reading the Shark Autopsy Report, Welcome! Over the course of the remainder of the NFL season this article will deconstruct winning DraftKings lineups in contests where the dark waters of Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP) contests that are ripe with sharks. Navigating these waters where the sharks smell blood in the water is not easy, but the DFSArmy has you covered, providing you with the essential daily tools to help our VIPs turn into sharks!
The article looks at multi-entry GPP contests, specifically the Milly Maker contest.
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In this edition of the Shark Autopsy Report, we look at the illustrious Milly Maker contest, a massive GPP tournament that pays out $1 million to first place. A true tale of the tape contest that everyone in the industry knows about, discusses and writes about extensively throughout the course of the week. Many think that lineup construction to win this tourney is all about the most contrarian construction possible, sometimes that is the case, but most of the times that is not the case.
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Synopsis of the Shark Autopsy Report
Lineup deconstruction is what all of the DFS analysis sites are pushing these days. Every site is wanting to get in on the action of making sure their DFS site is breaking down the winning lineups of these massive payout contests that are the DraftKings’ Milly Maker and FanDuel’s Sunday Million contests.
The Shark Autopsy Report is different from the other lineup breakdown reports that you can read online, there’s a multitude of these types of articles. The Shark Autopsy Report dives deeper than those other lineup deconstruction articles showcasing: the top ten winning lineups (position-by-position), the number of lineups the top 10 DFS players entered into the contest, the average amount spent by position in the winning lineup, top 10 player ownership percentages, and week-to-week salary distributions of the top 10 lineups to determine if there’s salary correlation amongst the top ten lineups, to help better predict winning lineup construction in future weeks.
DraftKings $4M 100th Millionaire Special Milly Maker Contest
As DFS players, fish and sharks alike, we are so attracted to the light shining down from the DFS Universe of the $1 M dollar first place prize in the DraftKings Milly Maker contest, and we pump a multitude of our bankrolls into these contests annually. Because of this, I understand why DFS sites are analyzing these winning lineups. It should be part of your repertoire as a DFS player to revisit the prior week’s winning lineups, not just for the Milly Maker and Sunday Million contests, but for all of the contests you entered to see how the winning lineups were constructed. Additionally, you should be looking at your own lineups to determine WHY certain plays in your lineups went off and WHY other plays did not. This will ultimately make you a better player, but it will help you determine trends that you may not have otherwise noticed if you were not reviewing over past week’s lineups.
Changes in the NFL rules landscape has led to greater scores amongst the top finishing lineups in all NFL DFS contests, not just the Milly Maker and other colossal entry contests, but in cash games and smaller GPPs as well.
The trend continues for the winner of the Milly Maker for an astounding 13th week in a row, the winner of the Milly Maker DID NOT MAX ENTER the tourney. The Milly Maker winner in week 13, AdamLegbert entered a single bullet into the Milly Maker and came out a MILLIONAIRE! Gone are the days of Max Multi Entry to take down the colossal tourney.
Adamlegbert’s lineup featured contrarian plays that exploded! Rostering extremely low owned plays of Zay Jones at 0.2% ownership, Courtland Sutton at 3.0% ownership, Tarik Cohen at 4.0% ownership, Texans Defense at 3.2% ownership and the field was mainly on Eric Ebron in week 13 but Adamlegbert faded that action and went up higher in salary to Travis Kelce who absolutely beasted at half the field ownership of Ebron! With the subtraction of Kelvin Benjamin and Andre Holmes from the Bills offense and the chemistry that Josh Allen has with Zay Jones, you may want to keep Jones in your front cortex of plays moving forward. Tarik Cohen has had some amazing weeks where the DFS industry forgot he existed, and in week 13 he paid off favorably to those that rostered him at a fraction of the salary of Barkley in the same game and was a major target in the passing game in week 13 versus the Giants with 12 receptions on 14 targets. I would’ve loved to seen his ownership at the conclusion of week 14 main slate, but won’t get the chance as he is on the Primetime slate. He will be owned on that slate and his ownership will rival Todd Gurley’s who is also on the Primetime slate.
The winning lineup incorporated 3 RBs and 3 WRs at an average salary spend of $8,000 for RBs and $3,700 for WRs. As you can see below, 9 of the top 10 lineups utilized the RB in the Flex position..
Top 10 Lineups at a Glance
Weekly Salary Distribution
Over the course of the 2018 NFL season, we will be comparing on a weekly basis how the top 10 scoring Milly Maker lineups have distributed their salary across each position within their lineups to determine if there’s correlation week-to-week amongst the top 10 lineups.
The field ownership graphic showcases the first 3 quarters of the NFL season’s highest owned plays and the percentage of those plays that were in the top 10 scoring Milly Maker lineups. What can be gleaned from the graphic is that of those top 10 scoring lineups in the weekly Milly Maker contest are either over-weight or under-weight on the week’s highest drafted NFL players as compared to the tourney’s overall field ownership. In week 13, the top 10 lineup’s field were bullish on Christian McCaffrey, Phillip Lindsay, Todd Gurley, Chris Godwin, and Patrick Mahomes as compared to the field. Otherwise, the top 10 lineup’s field was bearish as compared to the field.
The top 10 scoring lineups take a stand on a play or two and either go under or over weight on those respective plays that week.
Hmm…. GAME THEORY IS THE NAME OF THE GAME TO SCORING IN THE TOP 10 OF THE MILLY MAKER!
Which Player Salaries Encompass Top 10 Milly Maker LUs
We now have a good amount of data from the first 13 weeks of the season and those top 10 scoring lineups across all 13 weeks. As a result, what trends can we see week in and week out. 61.5% of the first 13 weeks, the winner of the Milly Maker spent at or below $2,900 on a defense. 53.8% of the weeks, the winner of the Milly Maker spent at or greater than $8,000 on the RB 1 position, and of the weeks that was spent at or greater than $8,000, 42.8% spent more than $9,000 on the RB 1 position. 38.5% of the weeks, the winner of the Milly Maker spent at or above $6,000 on the QB position.
Over the course of the first 13 weeks of the NFL season, 46.2% of the time the winning Milly Maker lineup rostered 3 RBs, and the range of average salary spent on the 3 RBs ranged from $5,333 to $8,267. Removing the outliers at the high and low ends of the bell curve, we will find that the salary range is more flat, ranging from $5,867 to $7,600.
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