Hello and welcome back. My name is FightOn2016 and I am a coach over at Beat The Bookie, primarily focusing on data analysis and building analytical models to help predict sports. This article will give you an insight into our NFL model and how we use it for DFS and for Sports betting for Week 16.
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Anyway, lets get into the good stuff. My NFL Model as you see below takes every game and runs a predicted score for each team based on about 20 factors that could impact the game, from injuries to a teams offense to the wind at the stadium.
First, below are the top 5 teams that the Model expects to score the most points
No real surprise on who is at the top of this list week after week. We have all the chalky teams: Patriots, Saints, and Rams. The bottom of the list are teams that have come on strong as the season progresses. Luck is finally back in real form and they are putting points up like crazy. We are also now fully in Baker’s world and he gets another chance to play Hue Jackson. What will he do this time?
I think the sneakiest stack of this bunch is the Cleveland Browns. We are expecting another 4 TD performance out of them this week, but their ownership is a little down for what may be expected. Give it a look:
- Baker Mayfield – 3.24%
- Nick Chubb – 13.75%
- Jarvis Landry – 7.76%
- David Njoku – 7.71%
For being our 5th highest total from our model, their offense is definitely worth a look today.
Next, lets look at the biggest differences (positive) between My Model and Vegas
There really is not much to gain from this chart this week. The Lions and Panthers are both seen as underpriced, but with new quarterbacks and offenses likely, will they actually put up points? I think the one benefit is it thinks the Dolphins and Jaguars game will go over its total with both teams showing up on this list. Personally, I like the Dolphins more and they may be able to sneak in some extremely low ownership. Try rolling out some shares of Kalen Ballage at 5% at a DK salary of 3700.
Stacks I want this week:
- Cleveland Browns
As explained above, I think they are in a great spot at lower ownership
2. Green Bay Packers
The Green Bay Packers are extremely low owned this week. We are expecting about 3% ownership from Rodgers and 6% from Davante Adams. Without Aaron Jones, this offense will move towards throwing the ball almost every down. That means Rodgers is far too cheap. Jimmy Graham is in the doghouse this week after dropping the ball that ended up as an INT especially after he came out saying he wanted more targets so I would stay away from him. There are tons of value to be had from this team going against the 32nd ranked pass D at low ownership. I want all of it.
Seattle Seahawks +112 for 2 Units (MAX PLAY)
There are not many places that you want to play at on a Sunday night in December in a game where playoff positioning is on the line. 4 main ones that I would never want to be the away team: Mercedes Benz in New Orleans, Arrowhead in Kansas City, Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, and CenturyLink in Seattle. In fact, over the last 12 years, the home teams in these 4 stadiums in night games in December have gone 22-8 ATS (73%). The Seahawks alone have gone 9-2 in this scenario. My model loves the Seahawks and I love them too and I expect we may have a new decibel record at the end of today.
Atlanta Falcons/ Carolina Panthers Under 45 for 1 Unit
Take a look at another piece I wrote HERE that goes over which divisions are the best at targeting for unders in the NFL. The NFC South ranks up there at number 2. We got a win last week with the Saints/Panthers under and lets get it again here.
Green Bay Packers -2.5 for 1 Unit
Green Bay has not looked the same all year, but Rodgers is not going to want to let young Darnold escape with a win. They do not want to sink so low that they let the Jets win so they will go in and take care of business by at least 1 score.
That is it for me. Once again, if you have any interest in joining Beat The Bookie and working with us to beat Bookies across the world, then either follow the links at the beginning of this article or DM one of Loosmeister, myself, or Anthony P.
Good luck in your contests and betting.