Hello and welcome back. My name is FightOn2016 and I am a coach over at Beat The Bookie, primarily focusing on data analysis and building analytical models to help predict sports. This article will give you an insight into our NFL model and how we use it for DFS and for Sports betting for Week 17.
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Last week NFL, my free model plays went 3-0 and I added 2 VIP plays for a 5-0 week. Our other NFL coach, Loosmeister, hit a 5 unit parlay making for a massive NFL weekend last week! Here was the excerpt from my last article on my MAX BET play.
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Anyway, lets get into the good stuff. My NFL Model as you see below takes every game and runs a predicted score for each team based on about 20 factors that could impact the game, from injuries to a teams offense to the wind at the stadium.
First, below are the top 5 teams that the Model expects to score the most points
Week after week I say this but no surprise at the top. We have the Chiefs, Steelers, Rams and Patriots (all of which are in easy matchups and need to win games) and all 4 are carrying significant ownership from our DFS Army Domination Station Ownership projections. For instance, we expect the Chiefs to score 32 points (which is a massive total), but Mahomes is projected at 33%, Kelce at 29%, and Hill at 34%. This is your cash stack, but will not likely win you a GPP.
These teams are going to be the teams you want to stack in cash, and have shares of in GPP, but I will highlight below my favorite GPP stacks.
Next, lets look at the biggest differences (positive) between My Model and Vegas
All 5 of these teams Vegas expects to score 18 or less points, but our model expects them to score 20-21 points. All 5 are going up against pretty staunch defenses. My two favorites of the bunch are up top: the Browns and the Broncos. Both of them are expected to score pretty low, but my model expects them to put up 3 TD and I could see 28 points out of either one of them. As expected, going up against pretty good defenses, the stacks are low owned and if you get even 10% share of them, you will put yourself in a good spot. Lets look at the ownerships:
Browns
- Baker Mayfield – 0.27%
- Nick Chubb – 0.8%
- Jarvis Landry – 0.86%
- David Njoku – 1.91%
The Browns have won 5 of their last 6 games and I do not think there is anything Swag Mayfield would like more than to spoil Baltimore’s season. There is a good chance they get stifled, but even 10% ownership will get you at about 20x leverage which if they do blow Baltimore up, you will be in a good spot.
Broncos
- Case Keenum – 0.1%
- Royce Freeman – 21.69% (due to Lindsay injury)
- Daesean Hamilton – 2.25%
- Courtland Sutton – 1.36%
The Broncos have looked hopeless over their last 3 games. The coach is out the door even if they win this game so why stack it? Los Angeles has been giving up significant points to bad offenses. They gave up 22 to Lamar Jackson, 21 to a Driskel led Bengals team, and 30 to the Steelers. We saw last week that even in a big loss to the Raiders, Keenum put up 200 yards 2 TD and 2 INT, Sutton had 6/65/1 and Hamilton had 6/40/1. Again, likely getting stifled, but if they go off, you will have massive leverage.
Stacks I want this week:
- Kansas City Chiefs – Chalk of the week, make sure to have at least 30-40% of this stack to keep even with the field
- Seattle Seahawks- not in the writeup but our model expects 27.5 points while Vegas expects 26 points. This is the type of spot I like to attack and Seattle is coming off a big offensive showing and likely to pile it on Arizona. We do not have ownership projects loaded into the DS but take 20-25% of this stack (Wilson/Baldwin/Carson)
- Browns – 10-15%
- Broncos – 10- 15%
Sports Betting:
MAIN PLAY: VIP UNDERS
Make sure to join Beat The Bookie HERE for my unders that I am focusing on today.
Carolina Panthers +7.5 for 1 Unit
Carolina is without Cam Newton this week, but New Orleans is resting their main players. In Week 17 games, teams going against opponents with a win % at 85% or better cover at a 14-7 record. This is usually when teams have locked up the number 1 seed because to be 85% or better you need to have a record of at least 13-2.
Chicago Bears +6 for 1 Unit
Our model sees the Bears losing by 4 in this game and I think they could even play spoiler and get the W. Everyone is hyping the Vikings defense, but I guess they are forgetting about Mack and company on the other side. The Bears still have a shot at a first round bye with a win and a Rams loss so they have something to play for and probably would rather not play the Vikings 2 straight weeks in a row if they lost.
6 Point Teaser teasing Houston to -1, Philadelphia to -0.5, and Baltimore to -0.5 for 1 Unit
Each of these teams have something to play for and we can tease them down to we win if they all win. They are going to try to play lights out to get their Ws and I expect each team to win.
That is it for me. Once again, if you have any interest in joining Beat The Bookie and working with us to beat Bookies across the world, then either follow the links at the beginning of this article or DM one of Loosmeister, myself, or Anthony P.
Good luck in your contests and betting.