Hello and welcome back. My name is FightOn2016 and I am a coach over at Beat The Bookie, primarily focusing on data analysis and building analytical models to help predict sports. This article will give you an insight into our NFL model and how we use it for DFS and for Sports betting for Week 14.
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Anyway, lets get into the good stuff. My NFL Model as you see below takes every game and runs a predicted score for each team based on about 20 factors that could impact the game, from injuries to a teams offense to the wind at the stadium.
First, below are the top 5 teams that the Model expects to score the most points
These 5 teams we are accustomed to seeing at the top of the implied team totals. All 5 are chalkier plays as their offenses feature so many solid pieces to build around. Or so one would think. At the top of the list, we have the Chargers who are 14.5 point favorites over the Bengals in a game where we expect the Chargers to run the ball and their defense should have a field day against Jeff Driskel. A RB/DST pairing of Justin Jackson and the Chargers defense brings an expected ownership of 7.5 and 5% respectfully and could give you an edge in DFS.
The other 4 offenses are fairly chalky though and I will have pieces of most of the offenses. We saw last week that Baltimore and their one dimension attack against the Falcons worked as their defense has gotten extremely bad. One thing to note is that in the last 22 games, teams that just fire a coach have gone 13-9 against the spread so that looks good for Aaron Rodgers and company to have a good game this week.
Next, lets look at the biggest differences (positive) between My Model and Vegas
Topping the list are two plays I am not considering: Redskins and Jets. I have no interest in either team. The remaining 3 teams intrigue me. The Bills are led by Josh Allen who we have learned is surprisingly a good runner and dual threat QB when all he was out of college was a gun slinger. No one really saw this coming and they have looked fairly legit the last few weeks racking up a ton of fantasy points. The total in the game is below 40 so it is a massive risk but for a player that put up 30+ fantasy points last week, taking a shot at Allen at 4% ownership is worth a shot. Combine him with Zay Jones and you got a stack that will be severely under-owned in many GPPs.
The next intriguing play is the Broncos at 5. The Broncos have stormed back into the playoff race and I frankly think that they are going to make it this year given that the rest of their schedule is a joke. They get the abysmal 49ers this week who are all set up to lock up the number 1 pick in the draft so they will not be trying very hard this week. Beyond that, with Sanders going down for the Broncos, the pieces you want to fit into your stack are extremely easy. Below are the pieces and expected ownership.
- Case Keenum – 1%
- Phillip Lindsay – 13.2%
- Cortlund Sutton – 26.9%
Sutton and Lindsay are on the chalkier side but adding Keenum to the mix will differentiate your lineup.
Top Stack of the Week
I will be honest with all of you, this is not sneaky. But, I have said this all year, when a team makes both of the lists I posted above, they become one of my favorite plays and this week the Chiefs have made both lists. They will be chalky, but I want all the exposure to their offense this week. Earlier in the week, I did not know about this matchup. Going up against one of the better defenses in the league, I had no idea. But seeing that my model, which weights defense strongly, likes the Chiefs to score more than Vegas expects (which rarely happens with a team so liked by the public as the Chiefs) and I am on board.
Ownership will be a bit to chew, but here are the key cogs in the offense
- Patrick Mahomes – 18.5%
- Spencer Ware – 9.0%
- Tyreke Hill – 12.85%
- Travis Kelce – 15.2%
It is not sneaky. My sneaky stack of the week is the Packers in the narrative of firing their coach.
Conclusion: I will have 40% KC, 25% GB, 20% DEN, and 15% BUF as my stacks this week.
Kansas City Chiefs -6 for 2 Units
See above as to why I love the Chiefs this week. They are 8-3-1 against the spread this week and all of their spread losses have come from when they were favored by more than 10 points. This line is coming down even further too so I love the play.
Indianapolis Colts +4.5 for 1 Unit
Houston is on fire. 9 straight wins coming off an 0-3 start is incredible. But what also happens after 9 straight wins is Vegas begins to inflate their Vegas line. Colts are coming off a pathetic performance against the Jaguars and I expect a bounce back spot here. In their earlier meeting, it was a high scoring battle that ended in a FG deficit. I think we see a similar result this week. High flying offenses that ends in a game winning field goal with whoever has the ball last.
Denver Broncos -3.5 for 1 Unit
San Francisco and Oakland both have 2 wins. They are in a city battle with one another to get the number 1 pick. Denver is coming to SF to enjoy the nice weather and to pick up a W from a team that has no business winning this game. Denver also has been on fire recently and need this game to stay alive in the playoff race. I expect a Denver win by a touchdown to 10 points.
That is it for me. Once again, if you have any interest in joining Beat The Bookie and working with us to beat Bookies across the world, then either follow the links at the beginning of this article or DM one of Loosmeister, myself, or Anthony P.
Good luck in your contests and betting.