Hello and welcome back. My name is FightOn2016 and I am a coach over at Beat The Bookie, primarily focusing on data analysis and building analytical models to help predict sports. This article will give you an insight into our NFL model and how we use it for DFS and for Sports betting for Week 13.
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Anyway, lets get into the good stuff. My NFL Model as you see below takes every game and runs a predicted score for each team based on about 20 factors that could impact the game, from injuries to a teams offense to the wind at the stadium.
First, below are the top 5 teams that the Model expects to score the most points
We just saw the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams have a massive offensive showdown a couple weeks ago and our model expects both of them to be the highest scoring teams this week. The Chiefs are extremely chalky this week with Patrick Mahomes around 20% of projected ownership and new FREE SQUARE of the week Spencer Ware taking over for Kareem Hunt. The Rams are equally chalky with Jared Goff having a projected ownership of 10%, Todd Gurley II at 27% and Robert Woods at 20%.
Both of these offenses should score well, but there is going to be a lot of ownership on both offenses that it will make it hard to create a GPP winning lineup with the stack.
Next, lets look at the biggest differences (positive) between My Model and Vegas
As you will see below, one of my top Sports Betting plays tomorrow are the Dolphins. I think they are worth a look, maybe not a full stack, but a few shares of players. Their projected ownerships for their top players are:
- Ryan Tannehill – 0.1%
- Kenyan Drake – 2.85%
- Devante Parker – 1.85%
- Danny Amendola – 1.55%
I do not think the Jets or the Bengals are worth any shares. The Packers and Giants are 2 of my favorite plays on the board. The Packers are finally home playing a team that everyone has rag-dolled. I am expecting a lot of points to come out of Green Bay and we are expecting the following percentages from them.
- Aaron Rodgers – 6.44%
- Aaron Jones – 11.83%
- Davante Adams – 21.63%
- Jimmy Graham – 3.33%
Davante Adams is the only player that will be extremely chalky. Like I have said in previous articles, what I like to see is a team that pops up on both the top implied team total from the model as well as the biggest difference between my model and Vegas. Like I have said for teams before, we are expecting more than 4 TDs to come from this offense, but it is not as chalky as the Chiefs or the Rams, which make for great GPP stacks.
Sneaky Stack of the Week
While I love the Packers this week, my sneaky stack is the New England Patriots. They come in at 4th in my implied total rankings, but do not appear on the biggest difference chart. So why am I picking them?
We see this story every year. Every news outlet, sports talk website (Ringer, 538, SI) and people say “Is this the new Patriots?” or “Wow, they don’t look like the ‘Old’ Patriots.” Every single year we get it. Then, Brady and Belichick come together and put a stomping on a team that people expected to be competitive. It happens every year and I think that this is the week the stomping comes down. The Patriots last 2 games have been on the road. They first lost to the Titans in Tennessee then had a lackluster (although they covered their spread) performance against the Jets. Now they come home, where they are 5-0 on the season with an average margin of victory of 13.8 and 4 of them were quality opponents. And we come into this game with them having lackluster performances thinking they are old?
Don’t get lost in the news cycle. The Patriots are the favorites in the AFC. My bold prediction is after they put a licking on Minnesota this week, they will be the favorites again and the talk of the town. Let’s look how sneaky this stack is:
- Tom Brady – 3.5%
- James White – 4.48%
- Sony Michel – 1.58%
- Julian Edelman – 5.99%
- Josh Gordon – 4.18%
- Rob Gronkowski – 9.99%
This entire offense is so under owned for a team that my model expects 4 TDs and I am expecting 5 or 6 TDs.
Conclusion: I will have 60-70% NE, 20% GB, and 10 or 20% NYG stacks
Sports Betting:
Patriots -5 for 2 Units
See above as to why I love the Patriots this week.
Dolphins -3.5 for 1 Unit
The Bills are coming off a big win against the Bills which has inflated their Vegas line this week. The Dolphins are coming off an incredibly close lost to a very good Colts team. They were up 24-14 in the 4th quarter until Andrew Luck made a comeback and winning 27-24. This all shapes up for what I expect to be a solid win from the Dolphins.
Giants +3.5 for 1 Unit
This is a trap game for the Bears. They are favored on the road, but starting Chase Daniel? The Giants have looked competitive over the last month and I expect the offense to be able to get a few scores on the board, which will be enough to get the win in the meadowlands.
That is it for me. Once again, if you have any interest in joining Beat The Bookie and working with us to beat Bookies across the world, then either follow the links at the beginning of this article or DM one of Loosmeister, myself, or Anthony P.
Good luck in your contests and betting.