Where Do I Begin?
Over the last few weeks, I have been using a smaller and smaller player pool. Recently, I have been making player pools in NBA that I really hadn’t ever done before with any success. That’s changed dramatically with the updates to the DS, the behind the scenes work by Boomer on the projection, the Research Station work by CeeGee and BenJammin, and the team in general that works hard on the tools. I’ve continued to create player pools for NFL as well, but in a different way. My player pool has looked dramatically smaller by following this process, however, it has actually allowed my lineups to have those “runners” where a lineup pulls away from the crowd and rockets up the tournament standings, rather than moving up and down the standings as a herd.
- I uncheck all players
- I add in players I want (i.e. Big Ben and Luck)
- I set the global exposure to 50% because NFL is so volatile
- I run it on three uniques
- Once I have my “pool” of guys I want an abundance of in my lineups, I then have been adding fringe type players or plays that other coaches have labeled as great plays.
- Let’s say Geek has a few running backs on his player picks list that I previously hadn’t added into my player pool. I would add in those players and set their maximum exposure at 3-7%, depending on how I feel about the reasoning. Out of 150 created lineups, the maximum amount of lineups they’d be in would be 5-10 as that is what the percentages work out to be. This allows me to create my player pool that will dominate the lineups but also allow other plays to mix in a little bit that doesn’t carry my personal bias.
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Week 15 Playbook Player Pool for FanDuel and DraftKings
QUARTERBACK
Ben Roethlisberger has been dynamite this season at home. While his floor is slightly lower than in years past his ceiling has been just as high as it always has been. He has scored 41.98 and 38.82 DraftKings points in two out of his six home games. The other four contests had scores ranging from 15.86 to 22.60 points.
Due to the injuries to their backfield, Big Ben has been asked to throw the ball 45 or more times per game in three out of the last four games. The Steelers have a 24.75 point implied team total which I think is likely a few points lower than it should be in what could turn into a high scoring affair. I am also not a big fan of many of this Week 15 main slate so I’ll be heavily targeting a few games in particular. Ben and friends will be among my primary targets when building single entry GPPs and of course in my MME player pool.
Tom Brady and the Patriots offense have scored 28.4 points per game since Week 11. They are facing the Steelers in a potential shootout at Heinz Field in week 15. Brady has a healthy group of pass catchers surrounding him and he’s averaged 317.3 yards per game over the last three contests. While he has only thrown 6 TDs over those 3 games he has a good opportunity to hit the 3 TD barrier in this showdown as the Steelers have allowed at least 2 TD passes in 3 straight games. I think Brady stacked with Gronk, Edelman, and running it back with a Steelers WR or Samuels is a lethal combination. Here are some examples for SE builds that allow you to grab onto some of that chalk but build stacks in a unique way without going straight to Antonio Brown and Juju Smith-Schuster:
Stack 1: Tom Brady + Julian Edelman + Jaylen Samuels
This would be a nice simple stack that wouldn’t be too volatile. In this scenario, we’d be game theorizing that Julian and Tommy boy hooked up throughout the game for solid production and potentially a score or two. Running it back with a pass-catching running back from the Steelers raises our scoring ceiling but also lowers our floor if this doesn’t come to fruition. The thought is that if the Patriots score big and early that the Steelers go super pass-heavy and Samuels racks up plenty of receptions or garbage time yardage.
Stack 2: Tom Brady + Rob Gronkowski + Jaylen Samuels
This idea is along the same vein as the previous one with Julian Edelman. However, with Gronk in the lineup, we are bit more dependent on touchdowns over receptions and yardage like we are with Julian. The same concept works for Jaylen getting extra work out of the passing game during comeback mode.
Josh Allen makes the list on DraftKings due to his cheap price tag and his running ability that makes his floor and ceiling both get a healthy boost. He has turned in rushing totals of 99, 135, and 101 yards over the last three starts. He’s even tacked on two rushing touchdowns over that span of games.
He’s been the QB4, QB7, and QB15 in DraftKings scoring over the last 3 weeks and has averaged 24.4 PPG, which is right up there with the high-end priced QBs. His passing game is his weak point and his wide receivers are wretched. However, in Week 15, the Bills face off against a defense (Lions) who have allowed two different quarterbacks to throw for over 350 yards in the last five games and allowed 3 different quarterbacks to throw for 3 or more passing touchdowns. He’s best used in large field contests only as his floor is incredibly low and his production potential is volatile.
Andrew Luck has thrown for 3 touchdowns or more in 8 of the last 10 games. He’s thrown multiple touchdowns in 9 of 10 games. He has scored more than 22.20 fantasy points on both FanDuel and DraftKings in all but 1 game over the 10 game sample. The thing about Luck is that he rarely shows slate winning upside so he will specifically be a small field GPP option for me this week as an elite pivot off of Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger. I think both of them will be 10-15% owned and Luck is a similar price point and has potentially a better floor than both of them. However, I think his ceiling is lower so I don’t know if he has the juice you need for one of the large field GPPs.
Dak Prescott has thrown 9 touchdowns and just 3 picks since Amari Cooper has arrived. He’s also starting to show a nice ceiling, scoring 26 or more fantasy points twice since the trade and never lower than 14 points in a game. Prescott also has 11 rushes inside the red zone over the last six weeks which has been a nice boost for his performance, adding 3 rushing touchdowns in the last 5 games.
Prescott has scored 29.52, 22.22, 16.82, 21.70, 14.82, 27.36, 15.12, and 30.40 DraftKings points in the last 8 games. That’s pretty solid production for a guy priced at just $5,500. That comes out to just slightly under 23 PPG. That’s top-5 QB scoring on DK at just a mid-5k price tag. He likely will be the guy I roll with for SE GPPs and I love the idea of building a few stacks targeting the Colts and Cowboys game.
Stack 1: Dak Prescott + Ezekiel Elliott + Eric Ebron
This type of stack is one of my favorites to do whenever it falls into place. This “touchdown stack” works best when touchdowns have been funneled into a few key pieces of a particular offense and work even better when a quarterback has the ability to rush in a touchdown. The concept is that Prescott runs one in, potentially throws one to Zeke, and Zeke runs in another one or two touchdowns, accumulating all 3 or 4 touchdowns the Cowboys might score. Eric Ebron is added to the stack for his touchdown equity that he has had this season. Over the last month of the season, this stack has averaged a combined 4.5 touchdowns per game (I think they can surpass that this week) together and it doesn’t even break the bank.
Stack 2: Dak Prescott + Amari Cooper + T.Y. Hilton + Eric Ebron
This is a “shootout stack” and is best utilized in large field tournaments only. It has a massive scoring ceiling if the game is high scoring but has a very low floor if it’s low scoring and field goals vulture team points. If we took the scores from these four guys over the last few weeks this is the combined point they would have scored in each week:
Week 14: 131.5 total
Week 13: 61.66 total
Week 12: 112.36
RUNNING BACK
Zeke Elliott is my favorite option at running back and pretty much on the entire slate. Amari Cooper’s arrival has done wonders for Zeke by opening up running lanes as the defense has another legitimate playmaker to occupy their attention. He has scored 39.7, 36.1, 28.3, 25.5, and 34.2 DraftKings points per game since Amari’s arrival. We were paying $11,000 for that production from Todd Gurley early in the season and now we get Zeke at a sub-10k price on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Joe Mixon just is way too cheap on DraftKings. While he is a decent option on FanDuel and is more of an MME target over there, on DK he’s a cash game lock for me and will be involved in pretty much any build I manually put together.
Mixon has averaged 24 touches per game and that includes 3 receptions per game. His 85 total yards per game and 0.6 touchdowns per game isn’t as high as I would like but his matchup this week is solid against the Raiders. He has scored 14.20, 22.50, 11.50, and 27.80 DraftKings points in the last four games. His home game splits are strong this season, as he has averaged 20.82 DK PPG in front of the Cinci faithful. I think he’s a lock button play over there at just $6,100.
Jaylen Samuels is a phenomenal option in a game that I expect to be extremely pass-heavy and Ben throwing the ball 45-50 times in this game. Samuels played on 80.0% of the snaps in Week 14 and hauled in 7 receptions on 7 targets while running an insane 33 routes. He’s going to rack up plenty of dump-offs, screens, and blitz hot routes receptions. I love his spot and his role. I love the idea of stacking him with Big Ben as well due to his pass-catching role.
WIDE RECEIVER
T.Y. Hilton is still questionable heading into a big Week 15 showdown of two of the NFL’s hottest teams. The Colts have gone 6-1 in their last 7 and the Cowboys have won 5 in a row. This game is in Indianapolis which has made the Colts 3.0 point home favorites.
Andrew Luck has 3 or more touchdowns in 8 of the last 10 games and multiple touchdowns in 9-0f-10. T.Y. Hilton has been the primary benefactor outside of Eric Ebron (who also is a superb option this week). Hilton has produced 18.50 DraftKings points or more in 6 of the last 8 contests and has received 125 or more yards in 3 of the last 4 games.
He has scored 22.50, 39.50, 31.90, and 15.70 DK points in the last 4 games and has averaged 26.4 DK PPG over the last 5 games. The only WR to average more was Keenan Allen and his 27.1 PPG (who got hurt on TNF). Hilton is just the 10th priced WR on DraftKings and is an ELITE value. On FanDuel, he’s priced slightly below value and remains a viable option in all formats. Just pay attention to practice reports and coaches updates in our chat.
Amari Cooper has been incredible for the Cowboys, amassing 40 receptions for 606 yards and 6 touchdowns. He has elite upside and with his newfound role within the offense, he has a pretty high floor as well. Both FanDuel and DraftKings have failed to raise his price high enough to where I don’t feel comfortable eating the chalk a little and using him. He is a cash game option and one of my preferred wide receivers, similar to T.Y. Hilton, in pretty much all formats (barring health of TY).
Antonio Brown has received 25.7% of the team’s targets over the last four games and 41.4% of the deep targets from Ben Roethlisberger. I expect Ben to have a monster outing against the Patriots and if this happens then AB is going to feast up and down the field. Another thing he has going for him is that the public likely will trot out Juju Smith-Schuster at possibly 2x the ownership at Brown. JuJu has been amazing but when you look at the trends, we see that JuJu has 5 of his 100-yard receiving games on the road and only 1 at home in 2018. Antonio becomes Ben’s safety valve in front of the home crowd and on the road JuJu is the primary. Who knows why and who cares. Antonio could remind us all of his 40 point ceiling this week in spectacular fashion.
The notion that the Patriots shut down the best weapon of the other team is overblown, as the Pats have allowed Corey Davis, Kenny Stills, Eric Ebron, and Trey Burton to roll up over 100 yards receiving on them in the last 2 months of football. Kenny Stills and Corey Davis, in particular, were the primary receiver at the time as well. Another trend is that all those performances were by teams facing the Patriots when NE was on the road, which is exactly where they find themselves this week.
Julian Edelman runs primarily out of the slot for the Patriots. The Steelers give up plenty of volume to opposing slot wide receivers. Sometimes A + B does = C. Jarvis Landry had 15 and 12 targets out of the slot this season against the Steelers. Keenan Allen racked up 19 targets in their showdown out of the slot and Emmanuel Sanders even had 12 in their matchup. Edelman has led the team in targets whenever Gronkowski and Gordon are both in the lineup with a 23.9% target rate. Add in that Josh Gordon will be shadowed by Joe Haden and I think we are looking at 12-15 targets for Julian. Yes, please!
Dante Pettis is my personal favorite salary saving option for Week 15. He just torched the Seahawks a couple of weeks ago to the tune of 27 fantasy points while hauling in 5 receptions for 129 yards and 2 touchdowns. Barring is healthy and a healthy outlook at the very least, I think Pettis is in prime position to continue to lead the team in targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns outside of George Kittle over the last three weeks. He’s too cheap on both sites for his role inside the red zone and downfield threat. The second-rounder has the draft pedigree and will continue to get the opportunity to showcase his talents to the brass and solidify his role within the future of the franchise.
Here is how I plan on using him in SE builds:
Stack 1: Dak Prescott + Zeke Elliot + Dante Pettis + Eric Ebron + Jaguars defense
We start the stack by rolling out a touchdown stack with Dak, Zeke, and Ebron. We then pay up to be contrarian at defense when a lot of people will be paying for defenses about $1,000 cheaper. Finally, we roll out a guy who’s looking like a big play threat and scoring option for the 49ers and against a team he just torched two weeks ago. We still have nearly $5,500 leftover for each of our final four positions. At this point, we can decide to throw in another stud or two and two more value plays or we can go fair and balanced.
Stack 2: Big Ben + Antonio Brown + Julian Edelman + Dante Pettis + Vernon Davis
TIGHT END
George Kittle has averaged 18.7 DK PPG over the last month of football. Not a single tight end on the main slate averages more over the course of the season and definitely not in the last four weeks. His current DK PPG rate over that month would rank him as the 9th highest scoring WR on the main slate and the 5th highest scoring RB. The fact that he’s just $6,300 is mind-boggling with his target volume and production.
He averages more targets (7), yards (81), and receptions (5) than any other TE on the main slate. He has scored 10 plus DraftKings points in all but 1 game in the last 11 contests. He has 20.80 or more in 4 of those games. There is just not much to not like about Kittle this week.
Rob Gronkowski finally delivered a Gronk-like stat line last game. Hauling in over 100 yards and a touchdown. He now faces teh Steelers defense that has allowed 69 plus yards to O.J. Howard, Travis Kelce, and Jared Cook. All three are big bodied and athletic dudes. Gronk doesn’t have the wiggle or smoothness he used to have in the open field or while running routes but I think he is in a terrific spot. He also is priced at $6,900 on FanDuel which, well, is just very Gronk. I also think Edelman and Gronk will get more targets with Josh Gordon being locked up by Joe Haden.
DEFENSE
Jaguars DEF has been a mind-boggling defense to target this season. They shut down the Colts in Week 13 which showed their promise and have had a few stinkers this season against teams they should have smashed into oblivion. However, they get to face off against 32-year old journey quarterback, Josh Johnson, and the stumbling Washington Redskins. The Jags have allowed just 15 touchdown passes this season (best in NFL) and 204 passing yards per game (2nd best). I love this spot and I am not scared of a career practice squad and backup QB. The Skins have just a 14 point implied total and I can envision a scenario where the Jags are able to get a touchdown or two on the defensive side of the ball and help you win a GPP. I might personally end up on them in the $250 entry Milly Maker on FanDuel this week. Only time will tell!
Seahawks DEF shutdown the Vikings for virtually the entire game in Week 14, allowing garbage time points in the final 60 seconds of the game. They now face a 49ers squad prone to turnovers and sacks. The 49ers have also lost to the Seahawks for 10 straight games which bode well for the Seahawks who just scored 16 FD points against them 2 weeks ago. Nick Mullens and the 49ers have averaged 2 turnovers and 2.5 sacks per game over the last four. This could get ugly! Seahawks are a great price on DraftKings.
Da Bears DEF is going to be one of my favorite against a struggling Packers squad. The Bears lead the league in turnovers and defensive touchdowns. They just wrecked the Rams high-scoring offense and face a team they dismantled in the season-opener (Packers). In that matchup, the Bears racked up 20 DraftKings points and accumulated 4 sacks and 2 turnovers. While the turnovers might be difficult to come by I think there is always a chance at a strip sack returned for a fumble and I think they’ll be all over Rodgers all day long in front of the Chicago faithful.
EXPOSURES
I plan on having a global max exposure cap at 50%. Everything for MME is still more game theory and correlation than most optimal approach. It’s projecting scenarios and hypothetical situations, ownership, and production. Anything goes and I want to make sure I have a pulse if some of the higher owned guys “dud”. Make sure you lower the cap on guys you don’t want a ton of but know you probably should have some of. If the DS pumps out too high of a percentage on a player, don’t ask the staff if 90% is okay, just lower the individual exposure on him. We really don’t want to do that on anybody ever unless we are having to make an all or nothing decision on mega-chalk.
Two Minute Warning
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