The previous model had us on the right teams about 50% of the time, which is ok for a first attempt. We need better than that and we will get better than that. The model has been updated to use better and more stable data. I only have a small sample of data, as my previous gameweek versions were lost on another computer. I do, however, have last week’s data and the model was correct 58.33% of the time. That’s what we need! Here’s to continued success as we venture into a big slate.
Remember to check Sniper’s Slide Tackle for some player picks. The odds I will be using will be taken from Bet365. The european sites keep locking me out. Remember, the purpose of this article is to leverage bookmaker odds for DFS purposes and find those hidden teams that can separate you from the field.
Huddersfield v Southampton
The bookmakers lean towards only Southampton scoring in this one. The model puts its stamp of approval on only Southampton scoring (62.23% BTTS-NO). Southampton has a new manager who has had an immediate impact on the squad. Huddersfield is the 2nd most unlucky team over the last 3 weeks, missing out on 1.5 goals despite having the most shots in the box over the same span. When lineups come out, I expect Southampton to be a tier 2 offense. Even though they are the favorite (36+%), the model increases their odds to 50+%.
Model’s play: Southampton to WIN, HUD/SOU – BTTS-NO.
Bournemouth v Brighton
When you have a team that is losing for a while there comes a time when they are bound to break that slump. This is that time for Bournemouth. We have a team that plays well at home vs a team that plays terribly on the road. Overall Brighton is playing well, but they still have those home/road splits. Bournemouth will likely have low ownership in the attack, due to their prices and having City, Man United, and Chelsea on the slate. I have them as the 2nd biggest differential on the slate, behind a team we will get to in a minute. Not only do I have them in a strong position to win, but I also have them scoring at least 3 goals. Callum Wilson has been removed from the injury report and should feature against a squad that has given up plenty of goals to forwards. He should help get this offense back on track.
Model’s play: Bournemouth to Win… big!
West Ham v Watford
The model loves a Watford victory. They are biggest differential on the slate at over a 30% increase to their win odds. Furthermore, they are listed as the dog in this fight but the model likes them to win (61.13%). The trend I mentioned with Bournemouth falls in line with this play, only in reverse. West Ham has won 4 straight matches and they are the luckiest team in the Premiership over the last 3 weeks, having scored over 4 more goals than expected. That is unsustainable and Watford has the 6th best defense and 4th best offense on the road, per my model. They will be overshadowed by West Ham’s results and I will not be falling for it.
Model’s play: Watford Victory.
Good luck! The dirty work is now done. Hold court and climb the leaderboards!