Welcome back fight fans! I hope everyone enjoyed the 1 week break for the holidays. This weekend we are closing out 2018 with a great card from top to bottom. I am sure by now most of you are aware of the card switching from Las Vegas to California. Draftkings has some big payouts this week in tournaments if, you have the bankroll to attack those.
We have been on a huge run in all sports at DFS Army! Especially in NBA as you can see below! If you want to join in on the winning use promo code “FORSLUND” to save 10% on your membership.
As always have some fun in tournaments this week. Just remember the Golden Rule! While chasing after the big payout is enticing always remember bankroll management. I am a firm believer in the 80-20 rule. Which is 80% of your allocated bankroll for the night in cash games and 20% in tournaments. Remember to take advantage of our Research Station and Domination Station. Plus check out the podcast, and follow me on Twitter (@MMACashAssassin) for the latest MMA and DFS Army news! Let’s break down these fights.
For those of you new to MMA here is a breakdown of the scoring used on Draftkings.
DFS MMA UFC 232 Fighter Advice
Fights to Target In Cash
First off before I give breakdowns here. What we are looking for in cash games is safety with a nice floor. It might be taking a high priced favorite in a good spot. It could also be a value play based on odds and pricing. Often times in cash I will look to stack a fight specifically if it has the potential to go 5 rounds (always the main event on the card or a championship fight). Now both sides of a fight may not be cash viable in a fight but, at least 1 of them is under this group.
Jones (-255) 9.1k vs Gustafsson (+235) 7.1k
Jones is a solid striker (4.41 Significant Strikes per minute) and has solid leg kicks. He has good takedowns (TD’s) and solid cardio. Gustafsson is a tough fighter and a solid striker (4.18 SS’s per minute).
In cash games I am stacking this fight and moving on. Normally we look fot 120+ combined draftkings points when stacking. I see no reason why the stack shouldn’t score well over 120+.
Vegas is basically split on if this fight goes to decision or ends Inside The Distance (ITD).
Jones is popping off as the 3rd best value play on the entire card when we look at our DFS Army exclusive Research Station. I think Jones makes a great tournament play and he will most likely be my highest owned fighter on the entire card. I will hedge with some Gustafsson in tournaments. Overall this is a great fight to target in tournaments and I will have 100% exposure to it. Overall Jones is my preferred play.
Cyborg (-240) 9.2k vs Nunes (+190) 7k
Cyborg is a high output striker (6.81 SS’s per minute) and has good power. Nunes is moving up a weightclass for this fight. She is a good striker (4.54 SS’s) and has solid power. She has good TD’s (1.86 per fight) and has shown improved cardio in recent fights.
In cash games I have no problem if you decide to stack this fight. With so many fights on this card being so close it’s a solid strategy to lock in a win. By stacking this fight and Jones/Gustafsson you are locking in 250+ draftkings points. Then all you need is to decide on your last 2 spots. If you decide to not go the stack route I think either are in play depending on your lineup build.
Vegas is leaning on this fight ending ITD (-180). I see this scenerio playing out but, I do think it would be in the later rounds. Cyborg is the likely victor according to Vegas here (-125 to win ITD).
In tournaments this is a fight I will have heavy exposure to. Both fighters are great plays when looking at the Research Station. Cyborg is coming in as best value play on card and Nunes is 2nd.
This will be by far Cyborgs toughest title defense to date. Nunes is very much live here. In tournaments Nunes is actually my preferred play. Mainly because she is cheaper. If you want to be safe I think tbe best idea is to just go 50/50 on both. If you have a strong lean than go 60/40. Currently Nunes is my preferred play.
Yan (-310) 9.3k vs Andrade (+255) 6.9k
Yan is a high output striker (6.77 SS’s per minute). He is aggresive and has solid cardio. Andrade is an ok striker (3.92 SS’s per minute) and has solid power. He is tough.
Vegas likes this fight to end ITD (-150). In that outcome Yan is the rightful favorite (+180 to win ITD). In the event it goes to the judges he is favored there as well (+140 to win via dec).
I already liked Yan as a cash play before seeing these numbers. I think he has a solid floor. Now looking at the numbers above he also has upside in tournaments as well. Priced up at 9.3k Yan most likely needs a finish to end up on optimal lineup. I don’t have much interest in Andrade. I can see using him as a tournament dart (I won’t be using him unless I am building 20+ lineups). Yan is my preferred play and 1 of my favorites on entire card.
U. Hall (+100) 8.3k vs Lewis (-120) 7.9k
Hall is a tough fighter. He is a good striker (3.44 SS’s per minute) and has a good jab. Lewis is making his UFC debut and comes in with a 6-0 record. He has good knees and is solid in the clinch. He is also Jon Jones’s sparring partner.
Vegas has this fight pegged to end ITD (-150). Hall is (+180 to win ITD) and Lewis is (+241).
In cash games Lewis is a solid value play. He is now the betting favorite but, priced as the underdog. In tournament’s its hard to ignore the value we are getting with Lewis and I will have exposure to him. Hall is the more experienced fighter overall here so, I want some exposure to him as well. I am thinking I will probably be around 25-30% on both. My preference being Lewis.
Jackson (-165) 8.4k vs Kelleher (+145) 7.8k
Jackson is athletic and has decent TD’s (2 per fight). He is strong and is a good wrestler. He will also have a 9 inch reach advantage. Kelleher is a tough fighter. He is a solid striker (5.06 SS’s per minute). He is aggressive and has good cardio.
This fight is expected to go to the score cards according to Vegas (-175 fight goes to decision).
With both of these fighters in the midrange let’s see if our Research Station gives us a heavy lean.
I am siding with our Research Station here. At his pricetag on draftkings Jackson is playable in all formats. I only have interest in Kelleher as a hedge and even then only around 10-15%. Overall I love Jackson in this matchup and he is my preferred play.
Fights to Target in Tournaments
Unlike the cash fights from above. These tournament fights carry greater risk. While they may have a lower floor these fights have higher ceilings. Which when mixed with the right amount of cash plays can yield huge dividends in tournaments.
Millender (-140) 8.8k vs Bahadurzada (+120) 7.4k
Millender is a good striker (3.5 SS’s per minute). He has solid knees and is good in the clinch. Bahadurzada comes in riding a 3 fight win streak. He is a solid striker (3.49 SS’s per minute) and has good power. He also has solid TD’s (1.24 per fight).
Vegas likes this one to end ITD (-130). With both fighters having solid props of (Millender +204 and Bahadurzada +270 to win ITD).
It sounds like Bahadurzada is going to be fairly popular this week on draftkings going off my Twitter feed. Let’s see if we can find an edge here.
Of course Bahadurzada makes for a solid play at his price and I will have plenty of exposure to him. But looking at our Research Station numbers Millender has just as much upside. I think a great ownership play in tournaments is Millender. He will be lower owned than others around him. Plus in a win you are ahead of everyone that had Bahadurzada. In closing I will have exposure to both. If I am feeling frisky I will have more Millender.
Harris (-175) 8.6k vs Arlovski (+155) 7.6k
Harris is a solid striker (2.99 SS’s per minute) and has good power. Arlovski is a good striker (3.09 SS’s) and is decent in the clinch.
This fight carries the highest finishing prop on the entire card (-185 to end ITD). With Harris having a solid prop of (-110 to win ITD).
This isn’t a fight I will have heavy exposure to. Mainly just because of the fighters salaries and I think both could be somewhat popular because of the ITD prop. I will have no more than 20% exposure to either fighter. My preferred play is Harris.
Chiesa (-165) 9k vs Condit (+145) 7.2k
Chiesa is moving up a weightclass for this fight. He is good in the clinch and has solid TD’s (2.87 per fight). Condit has only won 2 of his last 6 fights. But, this is his most winnable fight in quite some time. He is a solid striker (3.74 SS’s per minute) and has good cardio.
Vegas is slightly leaning on this ending ITD with a prop of (-150).
The main issue I have with Chiesa is he is priced up at 9k on draftkings and I like everyone else more around him. Condit interests me some at his salary. If he can turn back the clock and give us old Condit this is winnable for him. Plus paying down for him allows us more value up top. So while I do think Chiesa wins. I think Condit is the better draftkings play.
Mendes (-140) 8.7k vs Volkanovski (+120) 7.5k
Mendes is a good striker (2.76 SS’s) and has good power. He has solid TD’s (4.08 per fight) and is a solid wrestler. Volkanovski is a good striker (6.09 SS’s per minute) and has good power. He has solid cardio and good TD’s (3.87 per fight).
Vegas is liking this fight to go the distance with a prop of (-130 fight goes to decision).
This is going to be a great fight. Honestly either fighter could win here.
In cash I haven’t decided if I like either here yet. I don’t hate Mendes at his price if he is the last spot you need. In tournaments I want to get exposure to both. My stronger lean being Volkanovski for the price savings. Overall a solid fight to get exposure to from both sides.
Latifi (-140) 8.9k vs C. Anderson (+120) 7.3k
Latifi is a decent striker (2.37 SS’s per minute) and is solid in the clinch. He is tough and has solid TD defense. Anderson is a good striker (4.55 SS’s). He has solid cardio and very good TD’s (5.48 per fight).
Vegas has this fight going to decision (-130). In this scenario it favors Anderson (+180 to win via decision).
In tournaments you can attack this in 2 ways. The first is Latifi catches Anderson (he haa shown to be chiny in the past) and ends this early. The second is Anderson lands some TD’s and grinds out a decision win. I am siding with Anderson. Though I will have some lineups with Latifi in case the 1st scenerio plays out. My preferred play is Anderson.
Ewell (-105) 8k vs Wood (-115) 8.2k
Ewell is a solid striker (3.53 SS’s per minute) and has ok power. He has decent TD’s (1 per fight). One thing worth noting he does tend to fight with his hands down. Wood is a solid striker (4.52 SS’s per minute) and has good power. He has also shown to be a decent grappler.
With both of these 2 in the midrange I think we need to target this fight. Its honestly to close to call. I don’t have a strong lean yet. My prefered play is Wood at present time. Be sure to see my thoughts on this fight in slack as they very well could change.
Most Fade Worthy Fights on Card
R. Hall (-450) 9.4k vs Penn (+360) 6.8k
Hall is priced way to high for me. His floor is very limited with the way he fights. Penn’s time has passed him by. I just can’t trust him other than a shot in the dark punt.
Zingano (-145) 8.5k vs M. Anderson (+125) 7.7k
Not a ton of interest in this fight. I do have a strong lean for cash. But, you will need to be in slack to find that out.
If any of my thoughts change I will post them in chat.
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