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DFS NFL: Chalk Donkey – Week 17 Main Slate

Welcome to Week 17! It’s the LAST week of the NFL regular season and the PERFECT week to fade the chalk and take some chances in GPP! 

My name is Josh Thomas, and I write the Chalk Donkey article for the main slate for NFL VIPs as well as focusing on the showdown/single game slates on both sites. In this article I’ll break down the games on the slate, what a Chalk Donkey is, identify who those players are at QB, RB, WR, TE, and DEF using our ownership projections and offer some pivots who are poised for big games at low ownership. I’ll justify those pivots using our one of a kind research station and in the process, hopefully, teach you a bit about how to use that research station to identify solid pivots off the chalk.

Check out my NFL Showdown Article where I break down all the GPP winning lineups her

-–> Showdown Smackdown<–

As a reminder, this article identifies who the chalk is each week and provides options on how to either differentiate your lineup with it or pivot. Chalk isn’t always bad and I play chalk every week. There are times we have a chalk player and while I provide an option to pivot here, if Geek, CashKeg, or Marley say “All In” on the chalk, guess what? We go “ALL IN” on the chalk

 

One way that I break down rosters is through our Research Station (example pictured above!) We will have a stand-alone research station for the Thursday games this year, which I’m pumped about, check it out here! –> NFL Main Slate Research Station

Week Seventeen Preview:

It’s already the last week of the regular season??! What?! How did this fly by so fast? It’s been a great year for our DFSArmy VIPs with multiple 5 figure takedowns and live final seats grabbed and we’re going to keep this rolling, not only into week 17 but also the spring as PGA starts next week! While I love football and the big prize pools, PGA is my specialty and we are planning on having another huge year!

With teams resting starters or mailing it in the last week, research is more important than ever. We live in a time now in DFS though where EVERYONE knows this and there will be 3 or 4 DFS Darlings that are cheap value plays that everyone will flock to. In cash its fine, we eat the chalk and move on, but in GPP this is the perfect time to get contrarian and pivot off the chalk that in all likelihood will bust at huge ownership. This is really one of my favorite weeks of the year for DFS NFL so let’s get to it!

There are only two games with a total of over 50, the highest being the Chiefs and Raiders and the other being the Bucs and Falcons. Both teams have already had shootouts this year and while the Bucs/Falcons don’t have much to play for other than pride, the Chiefs are playing for a first-round bye and the Raiders would love to do nothing less than to spoil it.

Everyone is going to jump on Patrick Mahomes here and this is a smash spot, but the concern is that the Raiders don’t make it a game offensively. They did last time but can they again? If they do it will have to be on the arm of Derek Carr which makes him one of my favorite GPP plays of the day.

We’ve ridden Jameis Winston hard for a few weeks, especially in cash and now he gets a prime matchup at home against a weak Falcons defense and he’s projected at less than 3% owned…sign me up for some crab legs!

Other games with big playoff implications are the Vikings/Bears with the Vikings in a win and you’re in spot, the Eagles/Redskins with the Eagles needing a win and some help to get in. Cleveland can knock the Steelers out of the playoffs with a win over the Ravens, while the Steelers need a win to make that happen as well. The rest of the games really just end up being place situations. The Seahawks are in, but how they do against the Cardinals determine where they end up. Same goes for the Rams. Dallas has nothing to play for against the Giants and that line has been moving in the Giants favor all week. Jerry Jones says his starters will play but I doubt we see much Zeke or Dak regardless.

The other interesting situation to monitor is the Saints/Panthers game. The Saints are planning on resting all of their key players and Teddy Bridgewater will get the start under center, making him an elite value play. The Panthers have been coy about how many of their starters they will rest but it seems like Christian McCaffrey will be limited or shut down entirely, especially given that the Panthers will be starting a 4th string QB. The Saints D are in an elite spot, even if they sit some starters.

One final thing…I’m all in on GPP this week and running out some low owned game theory plays with chalkier solid floor plays. The goal of this article is to help you pivot off bad chalk and win a gpp, not min cash a gpp. If you ain’t first your last!

What is a Chalk Donkey?

First, let’s break down what I consider to be ‘chalk’. In golf, I break down the chalk by price range, but for NFL I think it’s important to break it down by position. Note these percentages are for the main slate. On a smaller slate, the chalk ranges become a little bit higher, I have no problem playing a QB at 30% ownership on a 3 game slate, but on a 12 gamer I’d rather pivot.

Quarterback: >20% Any time we have a Quarterback staring down 20% ownership or 1/5 of the field, it’s worth pivoting off of them. Quarterback scoring is often very flat and there isn’t a huge difference in point production most weeks, win or lose. Anytime there’s a chalk QB I almost always pivot.

Running Back: >20% Similar to QB, Any time an RB creeps up towards this 20% range we want to consider a pivot. I’m less likely to fade RB’s in smash spots at high ownership than I am QB’s just because of the ability of RBs to have massive games and outscore their closest competitor by 10-15 points. (See Todd Gurley, 2017)

Wide Receiver: 15%-20% With 3 spots for Wide Receiver on all three sites, you have the opportunity for ownership to spread out a little more on WR’s than the rest of the position groups. That being said, ownership almost always pools on 4-5 WR’s with most above 20%. There are very few WR’s that are matchup safe and many tend to be game flow dependent. Many times we see WR’s in smash spots drop single-digit points at high ownership because of the variance of a football game.

Tight End: >10% With only one spot on your roster for a TE unless you roster two with a flex, we don’t usually see players with massive ownership here. Anything over 10% would be considered chalky for me, but for the most part, I’m not really fading TE ownership most weeks unless Gronk looks like a 30% owned play.

Defense: >15% Similar to TE, I’m not often fading a defense as we usually don’t have a chalk donkey here and there isn’t always a huge spread in the top 10 defenses of the week in terms of point production.

One thing to remember as you construct lineups, players are ‘Chalk Donkeys’ for a reason, they are perceived to be good plays. Don’t fade the ‘Chalk Donkeys’ just because they are going to be highly owned. Very rarely does no chalk hit, and often times you find some of these ‘Chalk Donkeys’ in GPP winning lineups. In fact, 83% of Milly Maker winners in NFL rostered a player who was 20% owned or higher and 45% rostered a player that was 30% owned or higher! 

Now let’s get to the Chalk Donkeys of the week. In the next section of this article, I will highlight one or two players at each position that are projected to be highly owned and give either a reason to fade or play them. I’ll also provide a pivot or two who are projected to come in with single digit ownership. Note projected ownerships are for Draftkings you can find the other sites on our Domination Station.  

Here are this week’s top 5 projected owned players for Draftkings.

We have ownership projections updating all weekend for all sites in our Domination Station! Check it out here!

——–>DFS Army Domination Station<——–

Quarterback:

Here are the top 3 QB’s in projected ownership for DK and their projected points

Patrick Mahomes DK $7100/FD $9500/FD2 $13,300

Projected Ownership: 18.38

Can you fade Mahomey at this point in the year? All the guy does is put up 30 DK points every single week. He’s in a must-win spot (well kind of must win if they want a bye) against the 21st ranked defense against opposing qb’s?

The Raiders are giving up 20.1 DK points a game to opposing QB’s and that is actually a bit misleading as they really haven’t pushed opposing QB’s to do much. They did get a win last week on Monday night over a banged up Broncos squad and held Case Keenum in check, but in week 13 when they faced off against this very same Chiefs team at home, Mahomey put up 33 DK points with 295 yards passing and 4 passing TD’s.

Mahomes is in a great spot here and should smash, BUT, there is a chance that the Raiders can’t keep up and they just hand the ball off to Damien Williams/Spencer Ware. Hear me out here though…lets say that the Raiders do keep up like they did last time, don’t you think Derek Carr makes the better GPP play and run it back with skill position players from the Chiefs?

Last time these two teams met, the Chiefs won 40-33. Albeit on the road, but still it was the second highest offensive total for the Raiders to date. Mahomes scored 33 DK points and Carr had 24. Pts/Dollar Mahomes got you .43 while Carr got you .48. That difference doesn’t seem like much, but the extra 2k to load up elsewhere makes it a really interesting GPP pivot. You can run out Carr with Jordy Nelson (his favorite target of late) and have tons of salary to run it back with Travis Kelce/Tyreek Hill heck even Damien Williams. You can essentially get ALL of the touchdowns in this game and still have 4.5k left over per salary spot. Now try to do that with Mahomes and you have just over 4k and are having to deep dive for some value.

You are also getting Carr less than 1% owned, which if he smashes would be a GPP winner. Mahomes is a great play and someone you should have exposure to, but I love getting on some Carr here at miniscule ownership and hoping that the Raiders keep up. More of a big GPP play (5k or more entrants).

Matt Ryan: DK $6300/FD $8500/FD2 $12,000

Projected Ownership: 6.6%

I don’t love the price on Ryan this week especially on FanDuel and maybe that is why his projected ownership is so low, but this is a prime matchup for him in one of the highest total games of the week, regardless of if the Falcons have something to play for.

The ‘RocketArm’ rating is a system that we use at DFSArmy to rank quarterbacks based on game situation, defensive ranking, stats allowed, stats gained, etc. throughout the year. (Want a full explanation? Check out xBenJamminx break it down here –> NFL Research Station Tutorial) It’s been incredibly accurate so far this year and identified Baker Mayfield a few weeks ago with its highest ranking and he smashed as a top 3 QB at low single digit ownership.

Sixteen weeks in using it, I’ve come to trust it at this point and typically start my player pool with the top 5 guys listed. Ryan comes in at #3 this week behind the two highest owned QBs, and will likely be under 5% owned. (Also, Check out our boy Derek Carr up there at the 4 spot!)

The Tampa Bay Defense is awful and gives up the fourth most points to opposing QB’s. This game is a fifty point total and should be a sneaky shootout similar to the last time they played. The Falcons will also be without Tevin Coleman and have to start Brian Hill. This means that the Falcons will likely have to throw the ball early and often. I wouldn’t be surprised if he throws the ball 40+ times.

Other low owned QB’s I like: Jameis Winston, Nick Mullens (with George Kittle), Kirk Cousins 

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Running Back:

Here are the top 3 RB’s in projected ownership for DK and their projected points

Royce Freeman: DK $3500/FD $4700/FD2 $7000

Projected Ownership: 28.38% and climbing 

I love this time of year. We see teams start to rest starters or have starters get dinged up and they rest them to protect from injury or they have no reason to play them. In steps some back up that becomes the flavor of the week because they are cheap and in a great. Most of the time we have NOTHING to go on outside of preseason snaps. This week that player is Royce Freeman. 

Freeman gets the reps this week after Phillip Lindsay went down with a hand injury that is going to hold him out for 4-5 months. Since the injury occured in Monday night’s game, Freeman wasn’t priced up across the industry and becomes the de facto chalk.

Freeman was a preseason darling and someone everyone (including myself) was high on. He has a great resume and looked to be the workhorse back in this offense. That was until undrafted free agent signee Lindsay stole the show and smashed all year.

In limited work this season, Freeman has been pretty good, he’s averaging over 4 yards a carry and OC Bill Musgrave confirmed this week that he will be the lead back.

He’s in an absolute smash spot for cash games and should be upwards of 60% owned. You basically just eat the chalk here, especially in H2h and load up elsewhere with all the savings you get, but in GPP I think a full fade, especially in large tournaments is the play.

Freeman should get the bulk of the carries but he also has Devontae Booker back there waiting to steal snaps. Musgrave said in his presser that Booker would also get a “bunch of runs” and will likely be the passing down back. The Chargers want to win this game and will play as such through the first half. If they get to half time and see that the Chiefs are smashing the Raiders and they have no chance at the playoff bye, it’s likely we see they rest their starters in the second half. If they keep their starters in and keep pressing though, that game script favors Booker more than Freeman as Keenum and the Broncos will be forced to throw the ball and Booker can rack up PPR points on DK and FD2 like nobodies business.

Also, check out Booker’s usage in the passing game inside the 20. I can only expect this to go up with Lindsay out now.

It essentially comes down to a game theory play. How often is Royce Freeman going to outscore Devontae Booker in this situation? Maybe 60% of the time? 70%? Either way theres a 30% chance that the guy who is going to be under 1% owned outscores the 30% owned guy in PPR formats (this is strictly a DK/FD2 play) that sounds pretty good to me.

The other questions is, are you trying to win a GPP or min cash it? I personally am trying to win GPP’s. I want a top 1% lineup not a top 20% lineup. My top 20% lineups are cash/hybrid lineups. So in GPP I’m fading chalk Freeman and loading up on Booker in a few hoping to hit a homerun.

Saquon Barkley: DK $8200/FD $8500/FD2 $15,400

Projected Ownership: 5.91%

If you’ve read this column before you know I have a man-crush on Saquon Barkley. He does it all when it comes to what we want in a fantasy player. He gets 18-20 carries, catches 5-6 balls out of the backfield and can rack up 100 yards on the ground or in the air, or both. He is the focal point of this offense and in what many might perceive as a tough matchup against the Cowboys, he should be able to absolutely smash as the Cowboys are likely to play their backups and there is no indication that Barkley will have any less of a workload this week.

There aren’t a lot of pay up options at RB this week and Barkley is likely the safest option. That being said, he’s only projected at just under 6% owned while everyone flocks to cheap options like Royce Freeman and Jamal Williams. He’s got slate breaking ability and at this ownership makes a great contrarian GPP play.

If we get word at some point today (Saturday) or tomorrow morning that the Giants plan to limit him then I think we can fade, but I’m just absolutely licking my chops at this ownership and situation for my boy Saquon.

Other low owned RB’s I like this week: Kenyan Drake, Lamar Miller, Chris Carson

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Wide Receiver:

Here are the top 3 WR’s in projected ownership for DK and their projected points

 

Antonio Brown: DK $8700/FD $8,800/FD2 $16,300

Projected Ownership: 29.87

Brown is the highest priced WR on all three sites and likely the highest owned. Coach Mike Tomlin came out this week and said that Brown is undergoing tests on his knee that has held him out of practice all week. That is disappointing because I was ready to load up on JuJu Smith-Schuster regardless and this will likely decrease Browns ownership and increase JuJu’s.

I expect he plays and if we get reports that his knee is fine, he will still likely be over 20% owned. He’s in a slam spot in a must-win game. There is some merit to going full Steelers stack in this game the question is who you run it back with since the Bengals are SO BAD.

Either way I don’t want Juju or Brown without Big Ben. They will likely be the highest owned stack this week and rightfully so as they are in a great spot. If you do roster two or three of them (or Conner as well who is also in a smash spot) make sure you are differentiating elsewhere in your line up with some low owned plays.

Stefon Diggs: DK $7000/FD $6700/FD2 $13,300

Projected Ownership: 5.26% 

Stefon Diggs, who put up 34 DK points against the Bears the last time they played, is in a win and in game, at home, and is going to be less than 6% owned at one of his lowest prices of the

You read that right…Diggs in the smash spot of the season with it all on the line is going to be less than 6% owned!

Here’s what our fearless leader, Fantasy Football Geek had to say in his Geek’s Picks about Diggs.

Fuller and Amukamara have been solid all year, but they also matched up against Diggs in week 11 and he torched them for 13 catches, 126 yards, and 1 TD…and that was on the road! There’s also the possibility that the Bears rest starters at some point depending on the results of the other games.

I love stacking Cousins and Diggs here and I think you can even throw Thielen or Rudolph into the mix for the full stack in GPP. Must win spot for the Vikings and they will have to throw to get it done, this is a prime GPP play for me!

Other low owned WR’s I like this week: Julio Jones (Can’t believe he’s going to be sub 10% but he will be), Keenan Allen, Jake Kumerow (sneaky preseason guy who caught a TD last week, dependent on injury news for the Packers)

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Tight End:

Here are the top 3 TE’s in projected ownership for DK and their projected points

No surprises here with the top 3 in ownership, and typically I just eat TE chalk. There are only so many TE’s that are typically in good spots or see enough targets that you end up not really being able to worry about ownership. The only question mark is George Kittle not being here and I expect him to be higher owned than Gronk when the new projections come out for us today.

Of the four chalk, TE’s they all have something to play for outside of maybe Gronk as the Patriots don’t necessarily NEED to win. Kittle’s team is done but he has publicly stated this week that he is going for the TE receiving record. I imagine he is heavily involved and will continue to be Nick Mullens favorite target.

One thing to note about Kittle is that earlier in the season, when he had the massive first half but couldn’t quite get there in the second half to get the single-game receiving record, Coach Kyle Shannahan was mic’d up for NFL Films, and he pulled Kittle at the end of the game and sincerely apologized for not getting him the ball more in the second half. I would bet he doesn’t let that happen again.

Ertz has continued to be the focal point of this offense and the Eagles have employed more 12 personnel in recent weeks which gets Dallas Goedert on the field at the same time as Ertz and this has opened up some space for Ertz in the passing game. The Eagles need a win and some help and Foles loves going to Ertz.

Kelce is in a smash spot and is the main guy I’m targetting in my Derek Carr lineups to run it back with. He’s a great stack partner with Mahomes as well.

Vance McDonald: DK $4200/FD $5700/FD2 $8000

Projected Ownership: 1.32%

I was surprised by this ownership projection and I would expect that we see this number go up over the next 24 hours. McDonald is in a smash spot against the team that gives up the most points to opposing TE’s.

The Bengals are giving up almost 6 receptions a game and close to a touchdown a game to opposing TE’s. Vance has been quiet over the last few weeks but continues to see 4-5 targets a game and when these two teams met earlier in the season he had 8 receptions for 68 yards. I love him in GPP this week as a pivot off the higher owned chalk TE’s.

Other low owned TE Options: Austin Hooper, Gerald Everett, Jared Cook

One thing that we offer at DFS Army is my Showdown/Single game breakdowns. I have full write ups (over 5k words!) for the Monday and Thursday games as well as notes for all slates in our coaching channels. One thing I do is track every single GPP winning lineup on both sites and provide you with charts showing what percentage of each player is in those lineups. This is actionable data that you can use whether you are doing a single entry or MME!

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Defense:

Back to my old “Don’t Get Cute” motto here. Generally, I don’t like to pay up for Defense and unless it’s outrageous (25% or more) I don’t worry about ownership with defense, especially in cash. In Cash/GPP/Hybrid I’ll be sticking with the following defenses.

Saints: My favorite defense of the week, even if they start backups. The Panthers are starting a 4th string QB with no NFL experience. Sign me up.

Steelers: Must win game at home, against Jeff Driskel and his practice squad receivers. Yeah, their Defensive Coordinator is a moron but I don’t care. Give me some Steelers D!

Eagles: Another must-win spot for the Eagles D. Josh Johnson likes to turn the ball over. Their secondary sucks but they have still been able to score and are SUPER CHEAP.

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Last Play:

Be smart with your bankroll this week. Don’t chase losses, and don’t go crazy if you won last week. It’s important to stick to the process that has worked for you. For me it means that I’m playing the majority of my cash games in H2H’s, the rest in double and triple ups, and my GPP exposure is mostly in single or three entry max. I’ve had a solid season but the volume I’m going to play will stay the same, I’m not blowing it all in one week! want to be profitable for the year, not just one week.

What are you waiting for?!

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I’m really looking forward to working with you guys throughout the year and can’t wait to see those helmets crushing at the top of the leaderboard! Give me a shout in my coaching channel with any questions you have! #dfsupnorth-nfl-pga 

Don’t forget to check out all of our NBA and NFL Content while you are at it!

ALL OUR NBA CONTENT/STRATEGY ARTICLES —–> NBA CONTENT

ALL OUR WEEK 17 NFL CONTENT – NFL CONTENT

Also, give me a follow on twitter @dfsupnorth as I’ll be posting updates there as well as useful retweets leading up to the games on Sunday.