Good morning to you beautiful people out there in DFS land! You have managed to find yourself in a great spot here at DFS Army. I look forward to providing you with analysis and picks throughout this 2018-2019 CBB season! Remember, if I mention a player and do not point out which site it means that my preference is the site where he is cheaper. Let’s take a look at what games are on the slates for DraftKings and Fanduel tonight. The KenPom score projections are in parenthesis.
Iowa (75) vs Michigan St (84)
Liberty (71) vs Georgetown (74)
Rutgers (55) vs Wisconsin (69)
Troy (62) vs Florida St (82)
Texas Southern (71) vs Georgia (82) — DK Only
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IOWA vs MICHIGAN ST
We know that Iowa runs at a pretty torrid pace so far this season and that they get to the FT line a ton. They are making over 77% of their FTs to this point and that’s a key thing to know. Anytime we can get fantasy points when the clock has stopped is a good thing. On defense, they do an excellent job of not sending teams to the FT line, however, they do struggle in creating turnovers.
Much like last time out for the Hawkeyes, I feel fairly confident that one of the guys in the paint will pay off tonight. Cook went off for 26 game points in this game last season and is probably the top Iowa option. I keep praying that Garza sees 30+ minutes as he has the highest shot% of any Hawkeye when he is on the floor. Wieskamp strikes me as somebody that has a chance to win you a GPP tonight. Bohannon is an uninspiring GPP play as he has shot the ball pretty terribly to this point. This might be the game that I look at N.Baer coming off of the bench with energy. McCaffery called Reuvers (Wisconsin) straight garbage on Twitter after the Badgers beat them and while that would put you on my $*^% list, I think you could gamble on DK with a GPP share of McCaffery.
The Spartans are projected as the highest scoring team tonight so we will definitely want some pieces. On offense, they are very efficient and shoot the 3-ball extremely well. They also hit the offensive glass very well while they also share the ball well. On defense, they defend the 2 strongly, however, they do send opponents to the FT line quite a bit. They also do not force turnovers.
The last update that I read about McQuaid was that he was not expected to play. That news opens up Ahrens as a near lock based on his performance from two games ago. Last time out was a much tougher match-up and I think he bounces back for just $3700 and $4300. On the lineups that I decide against Ahrens, I will plug in Henry. Henry had the better game last time out and overall is more talented than Ahrens is but he seems more volatile at this point. I have no problem using Winston or Langford as they should be able to get theirs in this high paced game. The big issue is trying to decipher which big is going to be the one to own in this match-up. I keep waiting for a monster Ward performance and he probably is my favorite for GPP play. His rebounding gets snatched from him thanks to the high rates of Tillman and Goins.
LIBERTY vs GEORGETOWN
Liberty runs their offense at an extremely slow pace. In fact, they are in the bottom 4% of the nation in terms of offensive pace. They are extremely effective shooting the ball and sit in the top 73 in terms of making 2-pointers, 3-pointers, and FTs. They do not get to the FT line very often. On defense, they guard the 3-pointer extremely well, however, they are below average in terms of keeping teams off of the FT line while very rarely blocking shots.
James appears to be extremely safe and a beast on the boards. I wish he took more than 17% of the shots when he is on the floor. Homesley is a stomach-churning GPP play because of his propensity to rack up fouls. He has the upside needed at his price points. McGhee is an interesting DK GPP dart throw thanks to his 3-point shooting. Cuffee is coming off of a monster game so it kind of feels like chasing, however, if he is going to see a bunch of minutes I think he is certainly in play tonight. Speaking of minutes, Pacheco-Ortiz is in play at his cheap price point based on seeing minutes in the mid-20s.
Georgetown plays at a fast pace on the offensive end while trying to slow teams down on the defensive end. They do an excellent job of sharing the basketball and getting to the FT line, where they shoot it extremely well. Georgetown is at their best when attacking from 2-point range. They do give up a fair number of steals. On defense, they do a great job of keeping teams off of the offensive glass while they also avoid sending teams to the FT line. They can be beaten by the 3-point shot, but they are very good at blocking shots.
I would much rather use Govan on FD as I think nearly $10000 on DK is a bit too much. Akinjo is an OK play on DK but is off of my radar on FD thanks to his turnover issues. I consider Mourning an interesting GPP play, however, I think that game against Campbell is more of a big-time outlier. McClung has enough upside with his shooting to be a viable GPP option at his price. If Malinowski starts to regularly see 16-20 minutes, I think he is in play at $4100 on DK.
RUTGERS vs WISCONSIN
I feel like this game plays to the under as both teams play pretty solid defense while trying to grind the game out. Rutgers is pretty bad at trying to get to the FT line and when they do actually get there they make just 57% of their attempts. They do shoot the 3 decently well and are very solid at attacking the offensive glass. On defense, they do a good job of creating turnovers and an excellent job of blocking shots. They are elite at defending in terms of FG% against.
I may end up with some shares of Baker even though I find it hard to trust somebody who is turnover prone against Wisconsin. I do find Omoruyi interesting as he has had monster games recently and is taking a ton of shots. Thiam seems like a guy who could be a match-up problem for Wisconsin, but he tends to float around the perimeter. Doorson and Johnson are definitely GPP fliers down low as they will have to deal with Happ. Kiss plays a ton of minutes and is in play as the last man in kind of play.
We know that Wisconsin wants to grind out possessions and beat you in a 50-40 type of game. They almost never turn the ball over while they shoot the 3-ball extremely well. The Badgers are pretty weak when it comes to attacking the offensive glass and getting to the FT line. On defense, they keep teams from making shots while blocking shots at a fairly high rate. One negative is that they do not force many turnovers.
Happ is always going to be in play due to his super high floor. I might not look his way on DK at that price, it all depends on how I like my builds based on some of the value we have. On FD I think I will be 80% at the minimum. Trice has proven me wrong to begin the season as he is the Robin to Happ’s Batman. I do not mind him on both sites, but prefer him on DK thanks to the 3-point bonus. Davison is going to win somebody a GPP at some point if he continues to be under $5000. If Iverson would ever take just a couple more shots per game I think he would be an excellent GPP play on any given night. Ford and King are both in play as GPP fliers for me tonight.
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TROY vs FLORIDA ST
Troy plays at an extremely slow pace overall, with most of that coming on the defensive end. On offense, they do a good job of not turning the ball over and are very active in crashing the offensive glass. The issue is that they do not shoot the ball well at all while rarely getting to the FT line. On defense, they rarely force turnovers but they do limit the number of times opponents get to the FT line. They get beat by the 3-ball quite easily so far this season.
The one guy that is able to take advantage of the FSU foul issues is Varnado. I like Varnado as a player and think he slides into the GPP discussion but that price is tough to swallow for cash on this slate. Hicks might be my favorite player as he is playing really well and while I wish he was a few hundred cheaper, I think he shouldn’t hurt you in any way. I like Javan Johnson for cash as he seems pretty safe for 18-22 fantasy points at this point. Miller is the GPP version of Johnson in my eyes. Adams is starting to play a bunch of minutes and his $4600 price tag is very intriguing.
Florida St plays at an average pace overall. They turn the ball over a large amount but manage to attack the offensive glass extremely effectively. The Seminoles get to the FT line a lot and they manage to shoot their FTs very well. On defense, they force a large number of turnovers while limiting their opponents on the offensive glass. They do send opponents to the foul line quite frequently.
A large number of FSU players are in play tonight thanks to their projected team total along with the fact that they are all priced at $6100 or less on DK and $6700 or less on FD. Mann is a solid cash game play tonight and Forrest is somebody that I am wanting to be on because of his ability to contribute across the board. Walker is one of my favorite GPP darts as he has impressive upside to go with an ugly floor. Kabengele has extremely high usage but is very prone to getting into foul trouble. Koumadje is in play for me on FD as $4300 is too cheap for his upside. Savoy is an interesting GPP play on DK thanks to his 3 point shooting ability.
TEXAS SOUTHERN vs GEORGIA — DK Only
Texas Southern plays at an extremely fast pace on both ends of the floor. They have a couple of surprising wins early in the season which should give them confidence in this match-up against Georgia. The problem is they do basically nothing well on the offensive end as they shoot the ball pretty badly while never getting to the FT line and getting their shots blocked a TON. On defense, they are terrible at preventing teams from scoring or hitting the offensive glass and they rarely block any shots.
With this team, there are 6 guys that I am interested in and will be playing. Patterson is a transfer from LSU and is their main playmaker even though he is shooting it pretty badly. I love Reed‘s rebounding ability but he has some foul issues at times. Combs has the solid shooting ability to go along with decent rebounding. Bruce plays a ton of minutes and if he gets hot from the outside can carry you to a GPP win at his price. Butler has a decent upside at just $4400, while Hopkins is going to be 100% from my end as he is just $3300.
Georgia plays at a pretty fast pace and they commit a ton of turnovers. The Bulldogs do an excellent job of attacking the offensive glass while getting to the FT line well above-average. They are most efficient attacking with 2 point shots while they rarely get their shots blocked. On defense, they almost never send teams to the FT line while they do a great job of defending both 2s and 3s. They do not force many turnovers but they do block a ton of shots.
Based on what we know about this game, Claxton stands out to me as being in a great spot even at a $9000 tag. I like Hammonds as a GPP play as long as he is able to stay out of foul trouble. Ogbeide has really solid upside but he also has a pretty low floor based on performance and the fact that Crean has no idea how to run his rotation. Hightower, Crump, and Wilridge interest me from a GPP standpoint based on the fact that Georgia has the highest projected team total. Wilridge is cheap enough that he may see fair ownership from those trying to go stars and scrubs.
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