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DFS College Basketball Winning Lineup Advice For Draftkings and Fanduel 12/2/2018

Good morning to you beautiful people out there in DFS land!  You have managed to find yourself in a great spot here at DFS Army.  I look forward to providing you with analysis and picks throughout this 2018-2019 CBB season!  Remember, if I mention a player and do not point out which site it means that my preference is the site where he is cheaper.  Let’s take a look at what games are on the slates for DraftKings and Fanduel today.  The KenPom score projections are in parenthesis.

 

Arizona (76) vs UCONN (77)

UCF (65) vs Missouri (64)

Illinois (68) vs Nebraska (78)

Minnesota (67) vs Ohio St (73)

Loyola-Marymount (67) vs UCLA (76)

UC-Santa Barbara (63) vs Washington (74)  — DK Only

 

 

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ARIZONA vs UCONN

Arizona plays a little faster than average so far this season.  They protect the basketball while also getting to the FT line.  The Wildcats are not a very good 3-point shooting team and prefer to attack you with the 2.  Arizona is not very good at attacking their offensive glass.  On the defensive end of the floor, they are elite at defending the 3-point line while doing an excellent job of keeping teams off the offensive glass and off of the FT line.  Over 55% of the points they allow come from 2-point range.

I think Jeter is just too expensive on both sites but wouldn’t yell at you if you put him in a cash lineup on FD.  As much as I like Randolph as a player I just can’t recommend him and his 5 assists in 7 games this season.  He’s extremely scoring dependant and his price has gotten to the point that I do not see much for upside.  He’s a cash play as he takes enough shots to get you 3.5-4x depending on the site.  I do want Williams on both sites as he has struggled with his shot recently but still manages to return some value for us.  I like his upside more on DK.  People were burned by Coleman the other day so I want to go back to him in this game.  I am off of Luther until we find out he is completely healthy as he came off the bench last game.  Ira Lee is an interesting GPP play, however, he gets himself into foul trouble quite easily.

The Huskies play a pretty fast and effective offense as their effective FG% is 55.3.  They crash the offensive glass while making 57% of their 2-point shots.  On the defensive end, they manage to force a decent amount of turnovers and block a decent number of shots.  Connecticut does commit fouls at a pretty high rate.

Adams comes across as an extremely safe play and should offer some upside with UCONN having such a high team total.  I do not mind Gilbert on FD at $6600.  Vital is going to be pretty popular based on his play the last few games.  His price is more intriguing on DK, but I will get some FD exposure as well.  Carlton offers GPP upside, however, I worry about the fact that his best games have been in blowouts against some weak competition.  There is nothing wrong with Polley as the last man into your lineups at his price point.

 

UCF vs MISSOURI

This game is most likely going to be played at a snail’s pace as both teams slow the ball down on the offensive end.  We know that UCF does a great job of protecting the ball and getting to the FT line.  The problem is they make only 57% of their FT attempts.  They do not fire too many 3s as they definitely prefer to attack the paint.  On the defensive end, they offer an elite 2-point defense while limiting teams on the offensive glass.  They block a decent number of shots and manage to avoid sending teams to the FT line even though they have a few guys that commit a ton of fouls (Fall, Smith, Brown).

I swear at some point this season I want to use Fall, but I just do not see GPP upside in his price.  His minutes are limited based on conditioning and foul issues.  He rarely misses a shot, he grabs a ton of rebounds per minute played and has insane shot blocking ability.  Dawkins is definitely a cash play as I like his all-around game and we know that Missouri turns the ball over a bit.  His upside is more intriguing on DK.  I liked to see Taylor bounce back last game and while I think his upside is limited due to being just a scorer, I think he fits a cash mold even in a low total game.  I like Allen as a GPP dart as he has shown massive upside at random times.  I like Brown as a play on DK thanks to the foul issues that Fall and Smith get themselves into.

Missouri wants to slow it down on both the offensive and defensive end.  On offense, Missouri turns the ball over a decent amount but they do shoot the 3-ball pretty well.  On defense, they rarely force turnovers but they keep teams off of the offensive glass and off of the FT line.  They do not block many shots and they get beat by the 3-ball.

I think Mark Smith is too cheap on DK and probably just slightly too expensive on FD.  I like Geist quite a bit on DK thanks to his $5500 price tag and the fact that turnovers are only a loss of a half-a-point.  I will have a decent amount of Puryear as he is a big who doesn’t commit a ton of fouls.  He shoots FTs at a decent rate so should see some fouls called against his defenders.  Tillmon is an interesting GPP play who could go off or he could pick up fouls instantly and be in trouble all night.  I feel as though either Puryear or Tillmon are going to have a big game in this one.  Pickett can be slid in as the last man in for your lineup as he sees enough minutes to not hurt.

 

ILLINOIS vs NEBRASKA

Illinois plays at a pretty fast pace and while they aren’t the best team, they do some things well.  They attack the offensive glass decently well while shooting the 3-ball exceptionally well.  Illinois doesn’t get to the FT line very well.  On the defensive end, they create a large number of turnovers even though they send opponents to the FT line a TON while also getting destroyed by the 2-point shot.  Illinois allows teams to crash the offensive glass while not offering much for blocks.

I have an interest in Dosunmu on DK at just $6700.  Frazier intrigues me enough on FD that I think a share or two makes sense because we know he has a big game upside.  Jordan‘s performances have been all over the map so he falls into the DK GPP category for me.  If you told me that Bezhanishvili would avoid foul trouble and play 30 minutes, I think I may lock him in at his price points.  The issue is that Nebraska has a few guys that draw fouls at an extremely high rate.  Feliz is a deep GPP dart throw as his most likely outcome is 12-15 fantasy points, however, he has shown that if he gets some minutes he is capable of going more than double that.  Nichols and Williams are two more GPP dart throws who have more than paid off in prior spots.

Nebraska has been one of the most efficient teams in the country on both ends of the court this season.  On offense, they make nearly 60% of their 2-point shots while they rarely turn the ball over.  On defense, their numbers are extremely impressive.  Their effective FG% against sits #1 in the country at 37.9.  Opponents make just 23.5% of their 3s and 39% of their 2s.  They create a ton of turnovers while rarely sending teams to the FT line.

I am a HUGE Palmer Jr. fan and will definitely have exposure on both sites.  He struggled for a few games after coming out on fire and I think this match-up fits him quite well.  He is Nebraska’s leader in usage rate and he takes nearly 7 FTs per game.  In any lineups that I do not have Palmer, I will be inserting Copeland Jr. as he fills the stat sheet and gets to the FT line a ton.  Watson Jr. has GPP type upside, however, I think I will look to fade him for the slashers on the team.  Roby has been trending down the last few games and this might be one of those games that he bounces back, he just doesn’t take many shots.  Allen should be in consideration, however, I just hate his lack of usage and fluctuating minutes.  I might slide Akenten into a DK GPP lineup as his usage when he sees the floor is through the roof and he isn’t afraid to fire away from 3.

 

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MINNESOTA vs OHIO ST

Minnesota plays at a pretty fast pace even though that pace leads to them turning the ball over a bit.  They shoot the 3-ball pretty well at 36.5% on the season while they do a great job of attacking the offensive glass and getting to the FT line.  They actually struggle with their 2 point shots and do manage to get their shots blocked at a really high rate, but they do assist on over 61% of their made baskets.  On defense, they keep opponents off of the offensive glass, but they are near the bottom in picking up steals.  They do a good job of pushing teams off the 3-point line and forcing them to take 2-point shots.

Jordan Murphy is always in play thanks to his extremely high floor to go along with monster double-double upside.  I do have one worry as Wesson draws fouls at a ridiculous rate this season and foul trouble is a painful thing to deal with.  I do not mind Kalscheur, especially on DK thanks to his 3-point shooting ability.  Washington and McBrayer are guys that deserve strong GPP consideration as they do have upside but beware as the floor is basically the basement.  Neither guy shoots it very well but they aren’t afraid to fire away, especially Washington as he has the highest usage rate when he is on the floor.

Ohio St has been a bit of a surprise this season as I didn’t expect them to be this effective on offense.  They try to slow the game down a little bit and take advantage of their 56.1% effective FG rate.  They get to the FT line extremely well and do not allow teams to pick up steals on them.  On the defensive end, they hold their opponents to an effective FG% of just 42.6 which is 14th in the nation.  They rarely send opponents to the FT line.

I can’t seem to get K.Wesson right so far this season.  I like him in this match-up, especially at $7000 on DK.  Jackson is going to be in a fair number of my lineups on both sites as he just has been so solid for the Buckeyes.  There is a decent chance that Muhammad misses this game and that puts Woods squarely in play.  He has shown solid upside and I really like his DK price.  Washington could see a handful of extra minutes if Muhammad misses.  He is not afraid to fire away as he offers a 26.7% usage rate.

 

LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT vs UCLA

Loyola turns the ball over a ton while playing extremely slow on the offensive end.  They get to the FT line quite a bit and they lead the nation in FT%.  They get over 14% of their shots blocked, but they do attack the offensive glass rather well.  On the defensive end, they play pretty solid defense and are well above average in terms of forcing missed shots.  They force a large number of turnovers.

Batemon plays all of the minutes possible, takes over 28% of the shots while also getting to the FT line over 9 times per game.  He is certainly in play, more so on FD as I would rather spend on Murphy at his DK price.  Markusson appears to be ultra safe in this game and his price point is pretty easy to swallow.  Douglas is an interesting play, however, his lack of usage worries me.  Williams seems to be safe for 15-20 fantasy points.

UCLA plays at a fast but controlled pace.  They are above average to well above average in nearly everything except FT shooting.  They struggle to make FTs to the tune of just 62%.  Over 55% of their points come from making 2s.  On defense, they rarely turn their opponents over, however, they are well above average in basically everything else.  They are elite in terms of shot blocking.  Over 40% of the points they give up comes from opponents making 3s.

Moses Brown intrigues me a ton in GPPs thanks to the fact he has dominated lesser competition already this season and his FD price is a paltry $6700.  Wilkes has the highest usage rate on the team and is definitely in play.  Hands appears to be extremely safe and an easy plug and play option for both cash and GPP.  Ali is an OK GPP play, however, I will fade after his huge performance last time out.  Riley is seeing more and more minutes which is a great sign for a very talented player.  Hill has ridiculous rebounding upside so I do not mind firing him into a lineup somewhere.

 

UC-SANTA BARBARA vs WASHINGTON — DK Only

The Gauchos are an extremely slow team who has yet to play anybody of note.  In fact, the highest KenPom ranked team they have played is Wyoming at 202.  It is tough to take stock in any of their numbers at this point, but we do see that they are very good at hitting the offensive glass as well as getting to the FT line.  They do not shoot the 3-ball particularly well.  When it comes to defense, they do not force turnovers and they send opponents to the FT line pretty often.

Davis takes 32% of the shots when he is on the floor and to see him at just $6000 makes me jump at the plus sign.  Ramsey seems to be an ok GPP option without a ton of upside.  I am interested in McLaughlin as he takes over 25% of the shots and gets to the FT line the most on the team.  He transferred in from Oregon St so he has high major talent and has faced off against Washington before.  Blackmon has a ton of upside in this game and would be a lock if he managed to take a few more shots.  Heidegger is questionable to make his season debut and that is an important piece of information that we want to know.  He took 28% of the shots last year and was by far their go-to guy.  I want to like Sow but I am afraid he deals with foul trouble all night.  Toure appears to be a deep GPP dart throw with some upside for $3200.

Washington plays up-tempo on offense while they try to slow you down on the defensive end.  The team is extremely solid at crashing the offensive glass and getting to the FT line.  They are not a very good shooting team overall.  On defense, they are #4 in the nation in terms of block shot % and hold teams under 43% from 2-point range.  They do allow a decent number of offensive rebounds to be had.

Green started over Dickerson in the last game and had a career game.  Will be curious as to who starts as I like both players in this match-up.  If Dickerson sees his normal role of course.  I keep waiting for Thybulle to explode and put up a monster fantasy game.  I will definitely have a share or two because of his upside.  I have faint GPP interest in both Carter and Wright in a game that could see them receive extra minutes.

 

 

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