BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC on FOX 31 Location – Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Thanks for purchasing my UFC 231 DraftKings breakdown. As always, my goal here is not to give you my personal lineups, but help you learn to build better lineups yourself, as well as give you my personal picks and strategies for each fight card. Every week I will do my best to break down every fight on the card from a fight standpoint, as well as a DraftKings standpoint. I will also give my pick prediction for each fight along with the method of victory. However, just because I am picking a fighter to win may not mean they are the fighter I would prefer to roster on DraftKings, so be sure to read through my analysis to see where my head is at in my own lineup constructions. Secondly, if there is anything you think I can add to these be sure to message me on twitter at @BigMarley3 and I will take it into consideration.
This weekend, we have a 13-fight card in Milwaukee that will be the last UFC on FOX card due to the new ESPN deal. We are back to having smaller prize pools for this event but there is still good money to be won. The main GPP is a $10 entry with $15,000 to 1st place. Those big GPPs with a nice top prize are always my favorite contests to chase so I will be taking some shots at that. Other than that, I will stick to my 3-entry max & single entry GPPs. I will also be picking up H2Hs throughout the week and I will get a good amount of play in cash games.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, lets break down these UFC on FOX 31 fights and hopefully I can help you build some winning lineups:
Juan Adams $9,500 vs Chris de la Rocha $6,700
Juan Adams
Age: 26
Height: 6’5
Weight: 265
Reach: 81”
Gym: Paradigm Training Center
From: Texas
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 126
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-0
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: -440
Adams is a massive fighter, he is 6’5 with an 81” reach. Adams is still very young in his career at 4-0 and raw in his skills. Juan Adams is a former college wrestler, with developing striking. He is super brash and feels unbeatable at this point. He has little to no respect for the skills of De la Rocha and feels he is going to run him over. He is improving with his striking. He has a better jab, and a good straight right hand. He will switch stances, throw jabs from both stances, and when he stalks fighters near the cage he will let go with straight punch combinations. He will throw a lot of front kicks to the body, and low leg kicks. Sometimes he will not set up the kicks and get hit clean with punches. He seems to have a great chin and can just eat clean punches like nothing. He is 4-0 with 3 TKOs and a submission due to strikes and has big power.
He is a strong wrestler, and when he wants to take his opponents down, he has been able to thus far in his career. He is a massive man, but he is athletic for his size, and is willing to take some shots to close the distance and get inside. He has good body lock takedowns and will just run opponents over. On top he likes to get to half guard and mount and is extremely heavy. He has vicious ground & pound, he will throw nasty hammer fists, punches, and elbows, and opponents seem to want out almost immediately after they feel some of his power on the mat. He isn’t a submission threat, and never had a submission in his career, but he did go for a rear naked choke in his last match. He has good takedown defense, and it was laughable how easily he defended the takedowns of his last opponent. He has finished all his fights in round 1, but he seems to have good cardio, and can just do whatever he wants to these guys. Fighters seem to be scared by his presence in there, and he is able to bully fighters. I have yet to see what happens if he gets extended or brought into a war. I think that De la Rosa is definitely the more experienced striker, and Adams will be looking to get this fight on the floor. If he can close the distance, takedown De La Rocha, he will most likely get a finish.
Chris De La Rocha
Age: 39
Height: 6’4
Weight: 261
Reach: 80.5”
Gym: Forge Combat Academy
From: Washington
UFC Record: 1-2
Fight Matrix: 151
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +350
Chris De La Rocha is a tough guy with a lot of heart. He came to MMA late in life, but he was able to reach the pinnacle of the sport and get a win in the UFC. He is 39 years old and trying to squeeze the most he can out of his career and try to win a couple more UFC fights. This would be a huge win, and big upset for De la Rocha. De La Rocha is a huge guy as well standing at 6’4, but he isn’t nearly as physically imposing as Adams. De La Rocha has a decent jab, and good straight and overhand right. He likes to throw rear uppercut to jab combinations. He tries to use head movement to get inside, but in close he doesn’t move his head, and takes a lot of shots. He has a great chin and can take massive damage and continue to come forward. He has 3 KO/TKOs in his career, but he isn’t a big power puncher. He has a great chin but has been TKO’d two times. He lost via TKO in one of those fights to Adam Milstead, where he seemed fine, but the ref had seen enough of him taking shots. He has been fighting two fighters who are now 205ers, and now will be fighting a huge HW, so we will see if he can still take the shots.
De La Rocha is a decent grappler. He has good double leg entries, and will push opponents to the cage, and try to slow down the pace of the fight. He will try to shoot low singles as well. He has good body lock entries, but he doesn’t throw many shots in the clinch. He will throw some elbows over the top, and knees to the body. On top he is decent with jiu-jitsu, and he has good back takes, and will search for the rear naked choke. He isn’t a big submission threat, or a big ground & pound guy either. He finished Coulter with ground & pound, but that was a very sloppy fight where he won basically due to Coulter being exhausted. He has 100% takedown defense in the UFC, but he hasn’t had to defend many takedown attempts. De La Rocha should try to keep this fight on the feet, and strike. He has better hands than Adams, and he has to sit down on his punches, and crack Adams to make him respect him early. If De La Rocha does not have the power to keep Adams off him, it could be a quick night.
I expect this to be a short fight with the biggest favorite on the card getting his hand raised. De La Rocha is probably the worst heavyweight in the division and it seems like the UFC is just feeding him to a young prospect in Adams to start him off with a highlight reel KO in his UFC debut. Adams is huge and has heavy power. I don’t think it will take much for him to put De La Rocha to sleep or have the ref pull him off De La Rocha after some heavy GNP. The current line for FDGTD is -620 and that is by far the highest on the card. I expect Adams in 1st round to be over -200 as well. I would be surprised to see this fight hit 3 minutes, especially if Adams goes for a takedown and GNP. He is pretty sloppy on the feet, but it will only take one heavy shot for him to drop Rocha and that will be the beginning of the end.
On DraftKings, I think if you can afford Adams at $9.5k then he is playable in all formats. I do expect 100+ points from him, but I do expect him to be one of the highest owned fighters on the card. I am guessing he is around 40% owned this weekend so my plan will be to go over 50% myself and get a bit of leverage on the field still. He is one of my favorite plays on the card and almost every one of my LUs will have either him or Dwight Grant as the top two priced fighters. I think De La Rocha is only really playable in a real deep GPP, like the huge $10 contest. Nobody will be on him and if he does somehow KO Adams early in the fight then that will kill off almost half the field and Rocha owners would have 100+ from the cheapest guy on the card. That would for sure put him on that $15k lineup if it happened. I think if you are mass entering this weekend then maybe 1 lineup in that huge contest is worth it just because these are huge heavyweights and it only takes 1 shot from these guys. Other than the $10 deep GPP shot, Rocha is an easy fade here for me.
Winner – Juan Adams via 1st round (T)KO
Zak Cummings $9,100 vs Trevor Smith $7,100
Zak Cummings
Age: 34
Height: 6’0
Weight: 185
Reach: 75”
Gym: Glory MMA & Fitness
From: Missouri
UFC Record: 6-3
Fight Matrix: 53
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -320
Zak Cummings has stagnated in his career recently. He had won 4/5 fights, but after injuries & falling in the bathtub during a weight cut, he was out for over a year. He returned, and lost a decision to Michel Prazares, and is now moving up to 185 lbs to try to jumpstart his career. Cummings is a pressure fighter on the feet. He likes to walk down opponents with his jab and straight punches. He has a good check right hook, and left uppercut. His straight left hand is powerful, and probably his best shot on the feet. He is low output and can get stuck waiting for his opponents to throw. He is flat footed, and faster fighters can close the distance, land, and get out. He will throw front & round kicks to the body. He has a strong chin, and eats shots very well, never being finished in his career. He has 6 KO/TKOs, but he isn’t a big power striker.
Cummings is a strong grappler as well, and a black belt in BJJ. He was just grinded out in his last match by Michel Prazares, so I’m sure he will be trying to show better TDD in this fight. He is strong in the clinch, he has nice knees to the body and legs, and does a good job of trapping the wrist and then disengaging with a big combination. He will throw big hooks to the body. If he is able to be the stronger fighter in the clinch, and/or deny it he has a great chance to win this fight. He can be taken down by fighters who can chain wrestle. Cummings is good at denying initial attempts, and also at jumping back up but Prazares was able to keep him down by chaining takedowns together. He has good singles, and body lock takedowns. He is very good on top, he has great guard passing ground & pound and submissions. He can flow on top, as opponents try to scramble and is hard to get up from under. He has 11 career submissions, and been submitted just 2 times, once by Tim Kennedy as well. Cummings would slow down in round 3 in his WW fights, but maybe the jump to 185 will help that. Cummings needs to use his jab and straight left hand to catch Smith early and quell his forward motion. If he can catch Smith a few times as he closes distance, I feel he will be able to start going forward himself and control the pace of the fight. Uppercuts in close should be a big part of his arsenal in this matchup also.
Trevor Smith
Age: 37
Height: 6’3
Weight: 185
Reach: 75”
Gym: Ring Demon Jiu-Jitsu
From: Washington
UFC Record: 5-5
Fight Matrix: 44
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +260
Trevor Smith is a dog, he is in perpetual forward motion on the feet pushing the pace. He throws hard leg kicks, and an ok jab. He will go away from his jab as the fights go, and he relies on wide hooks. He throws long & wide right hooks and follows it with a left hook. He will throw the occasional body kick. He doesn’t have great head movement or footwork. He will just plod forward and cover up to defend combinations. Fighters are able to slip uppercuts up the middle, and hooks around the guard. He is slow with his hand combinations, and fighters with tighter & faster punches are able to counter him. He has a great chin and will take punishment to get inside. Due to his style, he has been finished 4 times via strikes. He isn’t a power striker, and only has 1 KO in his career.
Trevor Smith is a former college wrestler, and his basis for his entire style. He uses his hooks to crash the distance, and in the clinch, he is powerful and has good uppercuts and hooks. He will dig with knees and hooks to the body. He has good control against the fence, and zaps fighter’s energy in the clinch. He has good double legs against the cage, and body locks. His takedowns aren’t amazing, and I feel he will struggle to get Cummings down. He has good takedown defense himself and is a good scrambler. He has 9 submission victories. He has good guillotines, and rear naked chokes. He also has a good arm triangle and north south choke on his record as well, so he is a well-rounded submission grappler. He has great cardio and pushes a pace forcing fighters to fight unless they can take him out. He has only been submitted one time to Tim Kennedy. Smith needs to throw leg kicks, and over hands. Cummings likes to walk opponents down and pressure too, and if he can land big leg kicks, and counter hooks while looking for grappling situations, that’s his path to victory.
This is a tough fight to call with Cummings making his Middleweight debut against a similar style fighter. Smith will also be the bigger fighter here, so I think it will be hard for Cummings to work his ground game and his game plan might be to keep this fight on the feet. Trevor Smith does not have much of a striking game and I expect Cummings to be the much better fighter if this does stay standing. Smith actually strikes at a higher pace with a better accuracy than Cummings, but I don’t think there is any question that Cummings is the more dangerous striker and Smith has been (T)KO’d 4 times in his career. Both these guys like to work their ground game though and I think their wrestling might get cancelled out here and we could see these two stand the whole time. I don’t think this will be a very fun fight if that is the case and it makes me have less interest in this fight than I originally did. In general, I think both guys are usually decent DK targets because with their ground games they have that 100+ point potential. I do think Cummings is the rightful favorite as well and he has 16 finishes in his 21 wins, and usually has the edge on the ground in his fights. However, if this fight stays standing I think we will be relying on the knockout for Cummings to get over 100 points here. I don’t see him going for many, if any, takedowns and I think if anyone is shooting for takedowns it is likely Smith. If Cummings wins a 15-minute striking fight, I think we could be looking at a ~60-point win. That isn’t going to help at all with his $9.1k price tag.
On DraftKings, my preferred play is Cummings. I think he is the better all-around fighter here and I really don’t see Smith pulling off an upset. I will probably full fade Smith for that reason. If you think Smith gets takedowns and is live for an upset here, then you should definitely play him. I just don’t think that is the case. I do have some interest in Cummings because I think the KO is a possible outcome and I don’t expect him to be heavily owned. I did like him more earlier in the week than I do now, but I’m sure he still makes my player pool, but GPP only for me. If I am making 10 lineups I would probably only have him in 2 lineups, but I would guess that puts me in line with his ownership.
Winner – Zack Cummings via Unanimous Decision
Adam Milstead $8,700 vs Mike Rodriquez $7,500
Adam Milstead
Age: 31
Height: 6’3
Weight: 205
Reach: 79”
Gym: Pittsburgh Fighting Club
From: Pennsylvania
UFC Record: 1-1-1
Fight Matrix: 70
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 3-1-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -155
Adam Milstead will be taking his second UFC fight at 205. He lost his first 205 fight to Jordan Johnson, but it was a close match. He is athletic and is improving rapidly. He has a good jab, he likes to double up on the jab, and then follow with an overhand right. His overhand right is powerful, and he can change the fight with one punch. He has good hooks, and uppercuts in close range. He will jab to the body, and then throw a left hook. He will throw occasional leg kicks, but he isn’t much of a kicker. He can be hit with jabs & straight punches because he loads up on his punches. He has a good chin and will take shots to give his own. He has 6 KO/TKOs and has been finished 1 time by strikes in his first pro fight.
Milstead has improved his grappling and showed much better takedown defense against college wrestler, Jordan Johnson, in his last match. He isn’t an offensive wrestler and will not try to engage in the clinch. He is a brawler, and definitely prefers to stay on the feet and throw hands. He was able to see the takedown entries of Jordan Johnson coming, but he wasn’t able to stop him from getting in on his legs. He would back up to the cage, where he would widen his base and try to land occasional knees and punches to make Johnson pay for the attempts. He was able to deny almost all of the takedown attempts but struggled to get his back off the cage. He has good cardio and will land short shots in close that you can tell shake his opponent. He will most likely not have to deal with an opponent who will constantly look for takedowns and grind against the cage in this match and get to strike. Milstead isn’t a grinder like I said, but in my opinion closing the distance, forcing Rodriguez to work with his back against the cage is a good game plan. If Milstead can control him against the cage, zap some of his energy, I see him having more success with his boxing later on in the fight.
Mike Rodríguez
Age: 30
Height: 6’3
Weight: 205
Reach: 83”
Gym: Lauzon MMA
From: Massachusetts
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 144
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +135
Mike Rodriguez is a massive 205er. He is 6’4 and has an 83” reach. He is a great athlete, and a very interesting prospect for the division. He likes to use a lot of oblique kicks to the legs, and front kicks to the body. He has powerful round kicks to the legs, he took Devin Clark off his feet with a leg kick. He has a nice jab, and fast straight right hand. He doesn’t throw much in combination, and I feel he is nervous to let strikes go in close range for fear of being taken down. He has a good right hook, and nasty round and front kicks to the body. In space he is very dangerous and going to be a problem for Milstead. He will throw the front kick to the face, and he closes the distance with very nice jump knees. He dropped and finished his opponent on DWCS with a jump knee. He needs to improve staying in his range after he throws, and not getting so close where his opponent can tie up with him. Rodriguez has 7 KO/TKOs in 9 wins. He has a good chin, and never has been finished by strikes.
He is improving as a grappler and showed that against Devin Clark. He still gets too close to opponents on the feet and allows them to get inside and close the distance or duck under and take him down. He used to be extremely easy to take down, but in his fight against Clark he showed improved takedown defense against the cage. He was using an under hook to deny the attempt and was landing nice short knees to the body. He was trapping the wrist of his opponent and throwing knees and elbows. He can be taken down with reactive double legs, but he’s gotten better at using the cage to return to his feet. He showed a nice sprawl in space and would attack with Travis Browne elbows to the head. He was still allowing himself to get controlled against the cage far too long, and it was the main reason he lost the decision. Rodriguez needs to keep the distance, use jabs, straight punches and kicks. If he can keep this fight in the center of the cage I see him having a major advantage.
I think this is a decent fight to target on DraftKings because the FDGTD line is -185, and I like the underdog to win. I think Milstead is too worried about bitching about the UFC and doing his full-time job more than he is about this upcoming fight. I also don’t think he did much training with Stipe Miocic for this camp, so I really didn’t understand the odds when he was over -200 earlier in the week. The line has come down and I think it is more reasonable now, but I am going to pick the underdog to win outright in this one. Rodriguez struggled in his last fight because he was taken down over and over and wasn’t able to work his game. I don’t think Milstead has that type of skillset to keep Rodriguez on his back and I think we will see a striking match for as long as this fight lasts. Neither of these guys have ever won a decision, so I expect one of these guys to get knocked out and from what I have seen I think Rodriguez is a bit more dangerous. Rodriguez has 7 first round finishes on his record and if he can get another one here at his $7.5k price tag then that should put him on the winning lineup. Milstead also has all his wins by finishes in the 1st or 2nd round, so he could end up on the winning lineup too with a KO, but with his $8.7k price tag then we are relying on that 1st or 2nd round finish for him to be on the optimal LU.
On DraftKings, Mike Rodriguez is my preferred play here. Both guys are in play here since there should be a finish, but I see Rodriguez having more success on the feet and I think he gets a knockout in the first half of this fight, which makes him one of my favorite underdog plays of the week. I do expect him to be popular with the odds shifting in his direction, but I would rather go overweight than underweight on a spot like this since we do have to have underdogs in our lineup. If Mike does get the win here, there is a good chance he scores highly and that is the main thing I like about him. I am not real confident in him to get the win, but I like targeting him for the high ceiling he has if he does. I am really not confident in any underdogs to win this week, but with the odds value we have on Rodriguez and the potential 100+ points, he is going to be a heavy target of mine and I want to have more than 35% to be sure I am overweight to the field. I don’t think Rodriguez is a great cash play here though because he does have a low floor. He is GPP only for me, and I think a couple shots on Milstead is worth a play as well if you are multi entering this week. If I am making 10 lineups I would guess Mike is in 5 of them and Adam makes it in 1 or 2.
Winner – Mike Rodriguez via 2nd round (T)KO
Dan Ige $8,500 vs Jordan Griffin $7,700
Dan Ige
Age: 27
Height: 5’7
Weight: 145
Reach: 71”
Gym: Xtreme Couture
From: Hawaii
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: 136
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -170
Dan Ige is coming off a dominant victory over Mike Santiago. He has good, clean boxing. He has a nice jab and very good straight punching combinations. He will throw a nice long uppercut. He has good hand speed. He likes to make opponents move backwards and keep the pressure. He does a good job of cutting off the cage and not just chasing. He has nice short elbows. He is a tough Hawaiian and very aggressive. He does a good job of faking takedown attempts and coming up with uppercuts. He blitzed his last opponent very quickly and earned a dominate TKO victory in less than a minute. He has 2 KO/TKOs both with ground & pound. He has a good chin, and ability to eat punishment and push forward. He has never been finished in his career.
He is a great grappler, and a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu. He is also former college wrestler with good double legs, and good body clinch takedowns. On top he has a crushing top game. He moves quickly to the mount and will take the back and land brutal ground & pound. He has a nice rear naked choke, and I feel he will have a major advantage if he can get on top of Griffin. He has questionable takedown defense himself when he gets tired and can get taken down. He does have a decent bottom game. He has nasty kimura counters to takedown attempts and will attack with arm bars & triangles. He has good cardio and can push for 3 rounds. He has finished 7 of his 9 wins. Ige needs to use his hands to close the distance, get the takedown, and then work to dominant position where he can find a finish. I see him trying to overwhelm Griffin early because he had success with that in his previous matchup.
Jordan Griffin
Age: 26
Height: 5’10
Weight: 145
Reach: 74.5”
Gym: Roufusport MMA Academy
From: Wisconsin
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 81
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: +150
Jordan Griffin will be fighting in his UFC debut in his home state. He is training at Roufusport MMA, which is a thriving camp at the moment. He is an athletic fighter with solid striking. He has a good jab, and straight right hand. He closes the distance quickly and is explosive. He has his hands low, and good movement. He is very aggressive closing the distance with straight punch and hook combinations. He can be clipped with straight punches. He has good body kicks, and nice head kicks. He has gotten a head kick KO in a fight I’ve seen. He can give his hips when he closes the distance and be taken down easily. He has 5 KO/TKOs in his career. He has been finished by strikes 1 time but seems to have a good chin.
Griffin is an explosive fighter, and a decent grappler. He will close the distance, and land big slam takedowns. On top he has nasty ground & pound. He will stand up in opponent’s guards, and land big hammer fists, and punches. He is good at dropping opponents with punches and latching onto submissions. He will jump on the back and get rear naked chokes. He is able to get taken down, and he isn’t great off his back. He will use a guillotine to try to counter takedowns and has 3 guillotines. On his back he did get a recent arm bar, but from what I have seen he is not great. He allows fighters to quickly get into dominant position and has been finished by submission twice. Griffin needs to keep the distance, and not get into grappling exchanges. He needs to use movement, throw straight punches, and angle off not allowing himself to get backed to the cage. If he can keep the fight standing, use his athleticism and striking he can win a decision or land a big shot.
This looks like a striker vs grappler matchup, and whoever can keep the fight in their area should get their hand raised. Ige looked great in his last performance and scored 114 DK points in a dominant early 1st round finish. If he wins here, I doubt it will be quite that impressive, but I would imagine the game plan here is to get the fight to the ground asap like he did in that last fight. If he can get the fight on the ground and in top control, then he could lock up a submission or finish with GNP again. Or, if he can consistently get takedowns each round then he should win a decision that way. Either way, a win likely scores him a decent amount of points because it likely comes from a grappling heavy style. From what I have seen of these two, Griffin looks like the better striker and the much more dangerous guy in the standing department as well. And he actually has more submission wins than he does knockouts. I think if Griffin can make this fight more similar to Ige/Arce and stop the takedowns, he should get the win and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get a (T)KO. I do think he is a live dog in this spot, but the fact that Ige trains with Khabib and those other Dagestan fighters on a daily basis I have to favor him to get his hand raised but I think the betting line should be a bit closer to PK.
On DraftKings, I think both guys are in play here, but I will say my preferred play is Jordan Griffin. We have to pick underdogs in our lineups, and if he wins, I think he can score highly. I like other underdogs to win more on this card, such as Pettis, but I think Griffin has a higher ceiling with his finishing potential and I would rather save the $100 and pick Griffin, even though I am picking him to lose and Pettis to win. I think Griffin has 100-point upside, and that is what I am chasing. I do like this fight overall though, and I will probably get some Ige exposure as well. If he can win with a wrestling heavy style, or a finish, then he should be able to pay that $8.5k salary off fairly easy unless it’s a close back and forth fight. I do think targeting the right guys in this mid-range could be the key in GPPs this week, so I would want both of them if mass entering, but I will have more ownership to the underdog in this fight because I want to be able to pay up for those $9k fighters this week. FDGTD is lined at -160, so if Vegas is right and there is a finish, I expect the winner to score highly and possibly end up on the 1st place lineup.
Winner – Dan Ige via 3rd round submission
Jack Hermansson $8,800 vs Gerald Meerschaert $7,400
Jack Hermansson
Age: 30
Height: 6’1
Weight: 185
Reach: 75”
Gym: Frontline Academy
From: Sweden
UFC Record: 4-2
Fight Matrix: 23
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -185
This is a very fun fight. Both of these fighters are strong grapplers who battled through adversity to win their last fights. Jack Hermansson sustained a knee injury in his match against Thales Leites and was in visible pain. He was almost finished, and then somehow summoned the will in the next round to get in top position and finish the fight. Gerald Meerschaert gave a vet lesson to Oskar Piechota, weathering a storm, and then finishing him. Jack Hermansson showed huge heart, battling through injury to defeat Thales Leites, and will be looking to build on that with a win here. Hermansson has won 3 of 4 fights, and with a win here will be most likely looking at a top 15 opponent in his next match. Hermansson is also very big for the division, but a quicker more fluid athlete then Meerschaert. He uses a lot of lateral movement, staying light on his feet and in & out. He likes to throw a lot of oblique kicks to the knees, and front teips to the body. He has nice round kicks to the body also. He will close the distance with jabs to the head & body. He also will throw a counter left hook, but he doesn’t throw his hands much. He had an improved jab in his last match and was throwing a straight right hand. He has 11 KO/TKOs, and only been finished 1 time by strikes by Thiago Santos.
Hermansson is a strong grappler with a crushing top game. He uses the movement on the feet to frustrate opponents into over aggression, and then duck under and get takedowns. He has great reactive double legs. He is also strong in the clinch and is able to muscle opponents to the ground. On top he has a great top game. He has good guard passing and will quickly move to mount or the back where he will try to finish the fight. He has nasty ground & pound punches & elbows and will flatten opponents out in the back mount and not let his opponents out of the position. He has good top control, and he definitely is going to want to get on top of Meerschaert. He has good takedown defense, but opponents are able to land reactive double legs if they can time his kicks. Off his back he was quickly submitted by Cezar Ferreira, but then survived a super deep choke against Thales Leites. He looks to be improving with his Jiu-Jitsu defense and has a never say die attitude. He isn’t a big submission threat with just 3 career submissions. He has been submitted twice in his career. Hermansson has good cardio as well and will stick to the game plan. I see Hermansson implementing the same game plan as usual. Movement & kicks on the feet, until he can time a takedown & get on top. If he can get into dominant position against Meerschaert he will have an opportunity to finish.
Gerald Meerschaert
Age: 30
Height: 6’1
Weight: 185
Reach: 77.5”
Gym: Roufusport
From: Wisconsin
UFC Record: 4-1
Fight Matrix: 33
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +160
Meerschaert is a massive 185 lber. He has a decent jab, and straight right hand. He will counter with right hooks. He likes to get fighters backs against the cage, where he will unload with long punching combinations to the body and head, and short elbows. He has nasty kicks. He throws nice low leg kicks, and powerful body kicks. He will go up top with head kicks as well. Overall his striking to me is not great. He leaves his head on the center line and can be hit clean with big counters. He is heavy on his lead leg and can get it chopped down. He is very tough, and his ability to take a shot is key to his victories. He has 6 KO/TKOs in his career, but overall, he isn’t a big knock out threat on the feet. He has only been finished by strikes one time in his career. He is getting to fight at home, and he stated this is just one step below fighting for the title. So, he should be extremely pumped and ready to go come fight time.
Meerschaert is a good grappler, and has a lot of submissions in his career, he is susceptible to being taken down, and submitted himself. He has good single leg takedowns, he does a good job of timing singles when opponents throw kicks. He has nice body lock entries, and he is very physically strong in the clinch. He has good control, nice short knees and elbows. He will grind in the clinch, and then eventually drop down for a double or single. He has good chain wrestling and can transition from body locks to doubles to singles very fluidly. On top he has strong ground & pound, and he will rain down straight punches and elbows. He has good guard passing and is very heavy on top. He is very opportunistic with chokes and has a lot of different chokes he can pull off. He has gotten a guillotine, arm triangle, anaconda, and rear naked choke. He can be taken down pretty easily with body locks and double legs. He allows fighters to move quickly to dominant positions, and he stays calm but can lose rounds through being controlled. He has 20 submissions in his career but has been submitted 7 times himself. Meerschaert should try to not chase and cut off the cage while walking down Hermansson. Hermansson uses a lot of movement, and if I were Meerschaert I would more look to counter & look for the takedown in this fight. He should look to catch Hermansson as he closes the distance with straight punches, and time takedowns off Hermansson’s kicks. I expect a finish in this fight, Gerald Meerschaert has had 37 fights and only 3 decisions. He hasn’t been to decision since 2014, and in his home state I see him going for the kill.
This is another great fight to target on DraftKings. We have a FDGTD line of -215 and these two fighters only have 7 of their 58 fights combined fights that have gone to decision. They both fight at a solid pace too and have 120-point potential with their style and pace of fighting. I think Hermansson has the edge on the feet and that is where he should look to keep this fight. I don’t see it being very close at all on the feet and I think Hermansson has the footwork to be able to stick and move to possibly keep this fight standing. If there is a KO in this fight, it should be Hermansson getting his hand raised. If this fight hits the ground, then Meerschaert is going to have the edge and he could finish the fight from the top or the bottom if it does hit the mat. He does land 3 takedowns per 15-minutes, so I am sure he will be trying to get the fight to the ground, it will just depend on whether or not he can get them. Merrschaert already seems to fight with a kill or be killed attitude and this fight is a hometown fight for him so I am sure he will come out looking for the kill right away and that could be good or bad for him, but I think it helps us DraftKings players if we are targeting both sides of this fight.
My preferred play is going to be Gerald Meerschaert because at $7.4k it is much easier for him to end up on the winning lineup with a win than it is for Hermansson at his $8.8k price tag. Especially since Hermansson won’t be looking to land takedowns. There are a lot of potential high scoring favorites on this card, so I don’t think it’s a lock for Hermansson to end up on the winning lineup even if he does get a finish. If Meerschaert gets a finish, there is a good chance he ends up on that first-place lineup unless lots of underdogs win. I am going to pick Hermansson to get the win here because I think on the ground he has a shot to get back to his feet, but if it doesn’t hit the ground I don’t think Meerchaert has much of a chance in the striking department. So, I do like both sides of this fight, I will just have more ownership to the dog in this matchup chasing that high ceiling. I don’t care for this fight in cash games because both guys do have low floors, but it is one of the better GPP fights to target and I expect a high score from the winner.
Winner – Jack Hermansson via 2nd round (T)KO
Jared Gordon $8,600 vs Joaquim Silva $7,600
Jared Gordon
Age: 30
Height: 5’9
Weight: 155
Reach: 68”
Gym: Renzo Gracie Academy
From: New York
UFC Record: 2-1
Fight Matrix: 82
Last Fought: 10 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -150
Jared Gordon is a grinder. He is coming off his first UFC loss getting finished by Carlos Diego Ferrería. He will be looking to bounce back here with a victory. The most evident thing about Jared Gordon’s striking game is forward pressure. He is in perpetual forward motion, always walking his opponents down, and stalking them towards the cage. He has a nice check left hook, and decent jab. He has a good straight right hand. He will throw straight punches in combination in close range. He has a decent body kick. He is hittable, but he is tough, and will continue to take shots and walk opponents down slowly breaking them. His forward pressure is going to be the key to his success on the feet. He needs to make Silva fight moving backwards and control the pace. Gordon has 6 KO/TKOs and has been finished by KO/TKO twice.
He is a very good wrestler, and that is going to be his key to victory. He will use his punches to set up double legs, and he does a good job of using the double leg to push his opponents to the cage and change it into a single. He is strong in the clinch and has nice short punches and elbows. He does a good job of ducking under and landing reactive double legs as well. On top he has strong ground & pound and good control. He likes to get into half guard, posture up and throw elbows and punches. He is very active with ground & pound and does a lot of damage. He has a heavy top pressure game and does a good job of staying out of his opponent’s guards and raining down shots. He likes to get to side control and get the crucifix position. He has phenomenal cardio and does not slow down at all. He has 2 submissions, and never been finished by submission. Jared Gordon needs to use his forward pressure, and punches to set up his takedowns, and clinch work. If he can take down Silva and land some ground & pound and make him work, he will wear him down and win the fight.
Joaqium Silva
Age: 29
Height: 5’8
Weight: 155
Reach: 69”
Gym: Evoluçãu Thai MMA
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 3-1
Fight Matrix: 137
Last Fought: 11 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +130
Joaquim Silva is an explosive, scary, jacked Brazilian. His nickname is Neto BJJ, but he actually prefers to strike. In my opinion, he does not have a good style to win decisions. He is low output, and will allow fighters to control the center, go first & dictate the pace of the fight. He is powerful, he has a nice overhand right, and a good check left hook. He will throw a check left hook overhand right combination. He will throw hard inside leg & body kicks. He will stay in the pocket, and wing wild, wide hooks. He did a good job against Reza Madadi at landing big hooks to the body. He likes to throw flying knees and will throw them a lot when fighters are against the cage. He will get more aggressive in round 3 if he feels he needs a finish with forward pressure, but still doesn’t throw very many strikes. He is good at catching kicks and returning with punches. He has 5 KO/TKOs and has never been finished by strikes.
Silva is a black belt in jiu-jitsu. He does have a decent clinch, he will land hard knees to the body & head with. He has nice elbows in close. He is not an offensive grappler, he has 0 takedowns in his UFC career, and only attempted one. He is improving with his takedown defense, but he can still be taken down with well-timed double legs, and in the clinch against the cage. He has a good guillotine and will try to counter takedowns with it. He can get too over aggressive with it, pull guard, and end up on his back. On his back he is not very good. Fighters are able to control him from top position, and land nice ground & pound. He does have a good guard and will use it to return to his feet. He will also get too aggressive jumping on the back, get too high and end up on bottom. When he gets on top he will throw huge elbows and punches. He has good cardio, and usually gets better as the fight goes on. He has 3 career submissions, but none in the UFC or TUF. He has been submitted one time by rear naked choke. Neto BJJ needs to be more aggressive in this match and throw more volume. He is dangerous with his striking when he lets his hands go and controls the center of the cage. I find it hard to see Neto BJJ winning a decision here, he needs to come out fast and try to find a finish.
This should be a fun fight. Jared Gordon strikes at the highest pace on the card throwing over 13 sig strikes per minute. With that pace I find it hard to see the winner of this fight not scoring highly. For Silva, I think it is finish or bust because I don’t see how he beats Gordon in a decision, when Gordon lands at more than double the pace of Silva and if there are takedowns in this fight they will be from Gordon as well. He lands 3.41 takedowns per 15-minutes to go along with his 6.68 landed sig strikes per minute, so it seems like a longshot for Silva to be able to get the judges to see it his way. I do think Silva is live for the upset with a KO, but I think Gordon is going to make this a dirty fight and he is going to set a pace Silva has never seen before and not give him many opportunities for that KO.
On DraftKings, my preferred play is going to be Jared Gordan and I think he is playable in all formats. Gordon doesn’t even need a finish in this fight to score over 100-points and at $8.6k I think he can hit 10x easily with a win. Silva has the better ITD line in this fight, so he is playable for that finishing potential, but I like other underdogs more, so I don’t see me having much Silva in my lineups. If you are picking him via finish then I think you should look to be overweight to the field, but if I am making 10 lineups this week he probably only makes maybe 1. I think Gordon would be in 3-5 of my lineups and I am hoping that with the odds shifting towards Silva that it will take away from Gordon’s ownership in GPPs.
Winner – Jared Gordon via Unanimous Decision
Drakkar Klose $9,300 vs Bobby Green $6,900
Drakkar Klose
Age: 30
Height: 5’8
Weight: 155
Reach: 70”
Gym: MMA Lab
From: Michigan
UFC Record: 3-1
Fight Matrix: 72
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -250
Drakkar Klose is a young confident fighter. He likes to talk too, and this could end up being an entertaining fight in that aspect also. He is very cocky, and almost shows disdain for his opponents striking, walking them down with his hands down. He has good leg kicks, especially the low calf kicks that his camp is known for. He will close the distance with big uppercuts or big hooks but does leave himself open to shots to the body. He doesn’t have great hands, so he prefers to be all the way in or all the way out. He throws a lot of body kicks, head kicks, and leg kicks from the outside and does a lot of mugging to try to get opponents to close the distance, where he can duck under and shoot a takedown. He likes to throw a lot of explosive attacks to close the distance & get in the clinch as well. He throws superman punches, flying knees, spinning back fists, all to close distance and stay active. He will throw uppercuts after he ducks under if he can’t get takedowns. He catches kicks well and will get takedowns off them. He will also keep a lot of forward pressure, and in this fight especially I imagine him trying to close distance quickly. Klose has 4 KO/TKOs and has never been finished.
Klose is a great wrestler, and very strong in the clinch. He does a great job of ducking under punches in the pocket and getting in on singles & doubles. He will use the single to push his opponents against the cage, and work from there. He has nice short knees, elbows, foot stomps, and good control. He isn’t as dangerous or effective with his short-range attacks as Bobby Green in my opinion, but he may have better control and be able to nullify Greens offense. He is very strong, and will lift his opponents in clinch, circling to the back and trying to drag opponents to the ground. Klose doesn’t have great takedowns in MMA and hasn’t held many fighters down in his UFC even when he gets them down. Klose has great cardio as well, but I do feel he hasn’t been pushed, and forced into a war Bobby Green will bring him into. Klose needs to get into the clinch early & often and grind in Green. I feel at distance he will be able to land some shots, but Green will have more volume. He has to be the one controlling the clinch, and he can’t let Green out volume him there as well.
Bobby Green
Age: 32
Height: 5’10
Weight: 155
Reach: 71”
Gym: Pinnacle MMA
From: California
UFC Record: 5-3
Fight Matrix: 47
Last Fought: 11 Months
Last Five: 1-3-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +210
Bobby Green is a stance switching fighter with good boxing skills. He holds his hands low and uses a lot of head movement and shoulder rolling to avoid punches. He has a great jab to the body & head and will follow that jab with a hard-right hook, or straight right hand. He has a nice overhand right. He has a nice check left hook. He likes to throw oblique kicks to the knees, and front kicks to the body. He catches kicks well and will return with counter punches. He will throw nice round kicks to the body & head, and he keeps heavy forward pressure and volume on opponents. He lands 5 significant strikes per minute, almost 2 more than Klose. He will walk opponents down with his hands by his side, countering and landing hard body shots. He is hittable with overhands, but he has a great chin, and rolls with a lot of shots lessening the impact. He has the ability to get dropped and hurt badly such as vs Lando Vannata and recover and perform. He has 8 KO/TKOs and has only been finished twice with strikes.
Bobby Green is a former wrestler, and a strong grappler. He is very athletic and can close the distance into the clinch quickly. He does a good job of digging an under hook, pushing his opponents to the cage and landing knees to the body & elbows to the head. He was landing nasty punches and elbows in the pocket against Eric Koch. He will attempt body lock takedowns, and he has good slam double legs, but he rarely puts much effort into getting the fight to the ground. He has great takedown defense, and he is extremely hard to hold down. If opponents can put him on his back he isn’t very dangerous, and they don’t have to really worry about getting submitted. On top he has good submissions, he has a nice arm triangle & good rear naked chokes. He has 9 career submissions, but only one in the UFC. He has been submitted two times himself. He has phenomenal cardio, and usually is stronger in the third round than the first. He is the much more experienced fighter, and I feel he really showed he had that confidence back in his last fight. Bobby Green is at his best when he is confident in his element, talking to his opponent and having fun. Bobby Green needs to stay off his back and keep his back off the cage in this match. He needs to pressure Klose, push him back with the jab, and body kicks. I don’t know if he wants to grind in the clinch against a fighter like Klose, but I do feel in the pocket in the center of the cage, Green can piece up Klose. If Green can win clinch positions against the cage, I feel that will be a big sign Bobby Green will win the fight.
This is not a fight I am looking to target much in DraftKings. This fight has the highest odds to go the distance on the card and the favorite has never scored over 75-points in his 3 UFC wins. I do think Drakkar is the better fighter here and should pick up the win. I just don’t see how he pays off a $9.3k salary unless he gets a KO in the 1st or 2nd round. Bobby Green strikes at the higher pace so I do think he is punt worthy in case he can win the fight with his volume, but I think the odds are right in this fight and I am picking Drakkar to get the job done. Bobby is just real cheap and allows you to get up to the top guys in your lineup, so I think he is a better cash punt than anything and hope he can get 30-40 points in a loss.
On DraftKings, Bobby Green is my preferred play just because I am going to full fade Klose at $9.3k. I don’t want to rely on a KO for him to pay off his price and I would rather just pay up for either guy above him. Green is the lowest I am really willing to punt, but I don’t know how many lineups he will make. If I am trying to go stars/scrubs, then he fits those lineups well. However, I am not sure how I will go about my builds yet this week. I would guess with 10 lineups he would maybe make 2 plus my cash lineup. Klose is a fade even if I am making 50 lineups and I would expect no more than 80-points from him in a decision victory.
Winner – Drakkar Klose via Unanimous Decision
Andrea Lee $9,200 vs Jessica-Rose Clark $7,000
Andrea Lee
Age: 29
Height: 5’6
Weight: 125
Reach: 69.5”
Gym: Karate Mafia MMA
From: Louisiana
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 25
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W5
Betting Odds: -245
Andrea Lee is 1-0 in the UFC, and with a win here either fighter would probably get a top 5 opponent. Andrea Lee is the former LFA 125 lb champion and has won 5 consecutive fights. Lee is a strong athlete, and very physical for the division. She is an ok striker. She throws a lot of inside & outside leg kicks. She will throw a nice jab, and decent check left hook. She will throw an overhand right, and she does a good job of digging to the body with hooks. She throws hard body kicks. She is a bit of a plodder with her footwork. She is hittable, and her defense on the feet leaves a lot to be desired. She can also throw kicks without setting them up and get countered. Andrea Lee doesn’t have big power, with only two KO/TKOs in her career. She is very tough and has a good chin willing to take punishment and keep coming.
Lee is very strong in the clinch, and it’s where she is strongest in the octagon. She has great control and will get a single collar or a Muay Thai plum, and land hard knees to the body & head. She does a good job of trapping a wrist, while having an under hook, and throwing hard knees to the body. She will close the distance, and get body locks, along with double legs. She also likes to get hip tosses in the clinch. She also likes to circle to the back in the clinch and drag her opponent to the ground. She can get too over aggressive going for takedowns and be countered ending up on her back. On top she has hard ground & pound. She has good passing ability, and the ability to float and improve position as her opponent tries to scramble. She has solid arm triangles. She will transition to the back very quickly and has good rear naked chokes. She was throwing a lot of leg kicks from standing position in her last fight while Macedo was on her back and was able to control large portions of the fight this way. When she is on her back, she isn’t very good once fighters are able to cement position on her, but she is explosive, and hard to establish top position on before jumping back to her feet. She has 4 submissions in her career and was submitted in her lone loss. KGB will need to try get in top position in this fight. I feel both girls aren’t great strikers, but Clark is more seasoned. If Lee is able to be the bully in this match and impose her will with physicality she will win the fight.
Jessica-Rose Clark
Age: 31
Height: 5’4
Weight: 125
Reach: 67”
Gym: Xtreme Couture
From: Australia
UFC Record: 2-1
Fight Matrix: 40
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +205
Jessica Rose-Clark is going to try to bounce back from her first UFC loss. She has switched camps, and started training at Xtreme Coutures, and various other gyms around Las Vegas. She said she wants to return to her grappling style, and felt she was trying to be too much of a striker. Clark likes to come forward with a high guard and does a good job of parrying and hand fighting. She isn’t the fleetest of foot but is getting faster and more explosive. She cuts the cage off well and throws nice leg kicks. The leg kick will be an important thing for Clark on the feet. Clark has a nice straight right and closes the distance with good punch combinations. She has a nice step in knee. She will throw hard body & head kicks. Both of these girls are very tough and will clash in the center on the cage. Clark has 2 KO/TKOs and never been finished with strikes.
Clark is strong in the clinch and will go for body lock takedowns. She will land hard knees to the body, and head. Whoever controls the clinch in this fight will most likely win this fight. She is very heavy on top and likes to get in half guard and control top position looking for the arm triangle. She does a good job of controlling position and winning the round. Clark is good at fighting instinctively in the scrambles. She pulled guard, went for a leg lock and then transitioned into a double leg against Paige VanZant, and then later in the round got shook off the back and immediately locked in a tight triangle. She is good off her back, and I feel she has better Jiu-Jitsu than Lee. Jessica Rose Clark is going to have the faster hand speed in close range. I feel this fight will be a grinding clinch/wrestling fight with a lot of scrambles. If she can get on top of Lee I don’t see Lee getting up. Whoever wins the grappling in this fight will be the winner.
This fight has the 2nd highest odds for Fight Goes To Decision and this is 2 fights in a row I don’t see me being too invested in other than possible cash game punts. I do think this fight can score highly, but I can’t see me rostering Andrea Lee at $9.2k when I can drop down $200 to another Lee with a higher ceiling, or up $200-$300 and Adams or Grant. I do think Lee is the rightful favorite here and I think she gets the win, I just don’t see her scoring 97 DK points like she did in her debut and I think there are just better fighters to target in that $9k range. I think Lee is the better striker in this match and she has a decent top game and clinch game as well. I think Clark need to be able to land takedowns herself to have a chance at winning here, but I don’t think she lands them consistently and I see Lee winning a decision with the better striking.
On DraftKings, Clark is my preferred play but more so as a cash game punt. If she can score 30-40 points in a loss, I will take that in my cash games because her price allows me to get other favorites that I like a lot into my lineup. I can’t pay up for Andrea here with the other solid targets in the $9k range, so she won’t make any of my lineups. I would guess she scores in the 80s with a decision win, but I think there are too many 100+ point potential guys we should be targeting instead. Clark and Green are the best cheap punts on the card, but I don’t see either winning so that is why I prefer them for cash games instead of GPPs where we do need 6 wins.
Winner – Andrea Lee via Split Decision
Dwight Grant $9,400 vs Zak Ottow $6,800
Dwight Grant
Age: 34
Height: 6’1
Weight: 170
Reach: 78”
Gym: AKA
From: New York
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 206
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W7
Betting Odds: -300
Dwight Grant is an explosive knockout artist out of AKA. He is very athletic and can close the show with one shot. Grant is 34 years old, so the onus is on him to get going right away if he wants to make a UFC title run. He is a bit awkward in the way that he moves, and he really uses his 78” reach to his advantage. He has a very wide stance, and he likes to move in and out of range, draw out strikes & counter. He likes to lean back & come over the top with powerful overhand rights. He will throw a slip left hook overhand right combination and double it up in close range. He is aggressive and will explosively close the distance with upper cuts & hooks. He will throw nasty hooks to the body with big power, and he really loads up on his punches. He throws hard, low leg kicks, but he isn’t much of a kicker. He landed a devastating overhand right left hook combination to get the KO in his last fight, and he is always dangerous because he has that right hand cocked. He is heavy on his lead leg, and fighters are able to beat up his lead leg. He allows fighters to back him up as well, but his right hand makes opponents still nervous to throw when they are in range. He has 6 KO/TKOs in his career and has never been finished by strikes.
He is training at amazing wrestling gym at AKA, and he has really improved his takedown defense. He isn’t an offensive grappler. He will catch kicks and get takedowns or put them in the clinch. He has a great sprawl, and he does a great job of getting a whizzer in the clinch and circling back to the center. He is explosive if opponents do take him down and is hard to hold down. He has never been submitted and has never gotten a submission himself. He has good cardio and has shown he holds his power into the third round with a couple third round KOs in his career. Grant needs to play his game, move and counter with powerful shots. I feel Ottow will try to beat up that lead leg and take him down, so he has to be ready to counter or catch the leg kicks and defend takedowns. Ottow has a questionable chin, and if Grant can force him to stay standing for three rounds there is a good chance he is going to sleep.
Zak Ottow
Age: 31
Height: 5’11
Weight: 170
Reach: 72”
Gym: Pura Vida BJJ
From: Wisconsin
UFC Record:3-3
Fight Matrix: 117
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +250
Zak Ottow has been inconsistent so far in his UFC career, never winning or losing two in a row. He lost his last fight, so if the trend continues he will get a win here. Ottow is a big WW, solid athlete, and former college football player. He has a good jab and throws nice, hard leg kicks. He is aggressive and will throw hard hook combinations. He has a powerful overhand right, and it’s his most dangerous shot. He will attack the body with a round kick. He is good at switching stances and being able to throw a nice jab from both stances. He has a questionable chin & been finished 3 times by TKO in 21 fights. He only has 3 TKO’s.
He is a solid overall grappler. He is strong and does a good job of denying clinch and takedown entries, but if opponents get in on his legs they can get him down sometimes. He has a good ground game off his back. He stays safe in his guard and it’s hard to pass or do a ton of damage on him. He does a good job of getting butterfly hooks and pushing off and standing back up. He will work for arm-bars and triangles. He was able to stand up off bottom against BJJ world champ Sergio Moraes and not get subbed or take a ton of damage. He can reverse and get top position where he looks to take the back and get the RNC. He has good double leg takedowns, and I think he will be trying to get this fight to the ground. He is methodical on top, but not very dangerous with ground & pound He is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu. He has 10 submission victories. He has been submitted 1 time in his career. Ottow needs to use forward pressure to cut off the cage and get inside of Grant’s long reach. He needs to get in on the legs and get takedowns or make Grant work in the clinch. He also needs to throw hard leg kicks early and often.
I am going to keep this one short because I think it is a pretty one-sided fight and that is the only side I have interest in here. I think this fight has KO written all over it and that should come from Dwight Grant. His ITD line is -155 and his TKO/KO line is -145. That is the most likely outcome for this fight and that what I am picking to happen. I do think 1st round is the most likely round for Grant to get the KO and that makes him one of the best plays on the card because I think we get over 100 points from him. The later in the 1st round the KO comes, the more points he will score from adding up sig strikes and possible knock downs. I think Ottow’s only chance is to get this fight to the ground and try to lock up a submission, but that is not something I am willing to invest in.
On DraftKings, Grant is the play and I think he is in play in all formats. I think he is one of the top 3 plays on the card and I am going to try to get him or Adams in almost all of my lineups. Both seem like locks for over 100-points if they win and that is what I like to target on DraftKings. I will be full fading Ottow here and I think if you are making 20 or less LUs then he is an easy fade here.
Winner – Dwight Grant via 1st round (T)KO
Charles Oliveira $8,900 vs Jim Miller $7,300
Charles Oliveira
Age: 29
Height: 5’10
Weight: 155
Reach: 74”
Gym: Gold Team Texas
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 12-8-1
Fight Matrix: 13
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak W2
Betting Odds: -320
Charles Oliveira is making his return after setting the record for most submission victories in UFC history. He will be looking for his first 3 fight winning streak since 2015. Oliveira is a good long-range striker and improved a lot since their first matchup. He has nice round kicks to the body & head and will throw them without fear of being taken down. He throws nasty front kicks to the body as well and does a great job of attacking the body often. He has a strong jab, and nice straight right hand. He will close the distance with a straight right hand to left uppercut combination. He has nice step in knees, and while he has improved his range striking, he still is looking to eventually close the distance. Oliveira stands very tall, and in my opinion that’s a problem in this matchup. I think it makes him susceptible to overhands and being taken down. Most of the time being taken down isn’t an issue, but it is against Miller. Oliveira can get desperate at times on the feet also, and recklessly try to get in the clinch. He has 6 KO/TKOs, but they were all pre-UFC, and he isn’t a big power striker. He has been KO/TKO’d 4 times in his career, and has a questionable chin, and is susceptible to being hurt by body shots.
Oliveira is an incredible BJJ Black belt, and one of the best to ever grace the octagon. Oliveira likes to back fighters up with kicks & straight punches, and then go for takedowns up against the cage. He will shoot down for double legs, and then chain wrestle from there until he can get his opponent to the mat. He will pull guard and doesn’t mind fighting off his back either if he can get his opponents on the floor. Oliveira’s shots, are very risky because he puts 100% of his body weight into them, and if he doesn’t get them he exhausts himself, and can end up in bad positions on bottom. His best takedowns are in the clinch due to his length. He has great body lock trips and can land right in side control. When he gets on top he is exceptional. He has phenomenal guard passing and will transition to dominant positions seamlessly. Oliveira loves to get the mount where he will attack with heavy elbows until his opponents give the back and he gets the rear naked choke. He has a great body triangle and will attack with shots to soften opponents up before sneaking the arm under the chin. He can transition to arm bars from the back mount it he can’t find the RNC. Off his back he has amazing arm bars and triangles, very fast hips. He has great front chokes, such as guillotines, anacondas and darce’s. He is excellent at jumping on guillotines and finishing them. Oliveira will attack with leg locks, but in doing that he got caught in a leg lock from Jim Miller and was forced to tap in their first fight. Oliveira seems to put everything into submission attempts, and break if he cannot get them. He has quit mentally in fights IMO, and Miller will be the tougher fighter. Oliveira needs to be the one moving forward here. If he can use his striking to push Miller towards the cage, he should try to put power on his shots and hurt Miller by throwing elbows, front kicks & round kicks to the face. He needs to work takedowns from the clinch, and not shoot range takedowns against Miller. He also shouldn’t go extremely hard for the submission, if it is there go for it, but know when to let it go.
Jim Miller
Age: 35
Height: 5’8
Weight: 155
Reach: 71”
Gym: Miller Bros MMA
From: New Jersey
UFC Record: 18-11-1
Fight Matrix: 40
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 1-4
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +260
Jim Miller is still a beast, especially in round one. He comes out fast but tends to slow down now with older age. He has a nice jab, straight left hand. He also throws nasty low leg kicks. He has a powerful overhand left, and he does a great job of disguising it with level changes. He will throw an overhand left right hook combination. His straight left hand was super-fast in his last match, and he was attacking the body with the straight left hand. He closed the distance with a straight left right hook to the body to overhand left and dropped White and finished with a rear naked choke in less than 2 minutes. He likes to lead with the inside low kick and follow with a left hook. He has hard body & head kicks and will blast through your arms with them. He likes to throw right uppercuts to straight left hands in close range, and still has fast hands and dangerous boxing in the pocket. He has improved lateral movement and catches fighters as they come inside with an inside leg kick right hook. He is a in your face pressure striker most of the time, and due to that he is hittable himself. He has a problem when fighters push him back with strikes. He doesn’t have great movement going backwards and can get trapped against the cage. He has tried to address that part of his game and does a better job of circling off the cage. Miller only has 2 KO/TKOs in his career, but he does pack power and drops and submits opponents. He has shown a stellar chin over his career only being finished via strikes twice in his career.
Miller is still a fantastic wrestler and has a black belt in BJJ. Miller does a great job of landing reactive double legs and hides them well with his punches. He has a good single leg as well and can use it to drive his opponents to the cage and get a double leg. He is very dogged with his attempts, and willing to take punishment to get the fight to the mat. On top Miller is awesome, he has great control, and scrambling ability. He is very good at flowing on top and is always looking for submissions. He does a great job of finding the back & getting rear naked chokes. He is willing to really go for submissions such as guillotines and back takes, and when he gets them he looks great, but it also gets him in trouble when he doesn’t. Miller has been susceptible to takedowns himself, but it has mostly been against large wrestlers. Benson Henderson, Francisco Trinaldo, Michael Cheisa, Beneil Dariush, and Pat Healy are all big wrestlers, and were able to grind him out. Charles Oliveira does not have that size or skill set, and it makes for an interesting fight. He does have a good bottom game and is very aggressive. He works a high guard and will look to throw up triangles and arm bars. He has good leg locks and was able to catch Oliveria in a knee bar in their first match. Miller has 15 career submissions, 9 in round 1. He has been submitted 2 times himself. Jim Miller needs to be aggressive, move forward throw leg kicks, his straight left hand, and get in the face of Oliveira. If he can push Oliviera, and make him question himself, we have seen Charles quit before. The fact that Miller was able to submit Oliviera so quickly I believe will give him confidence in grappling situations here, but he still has to be very careful. Jim Miller has the most fights in UFC history and is someone you can never sleep on. He always has the potential to take his opponent out.
This is the first rematch of night and I think this fight goes different this time around. Do Bronx Oliveira is 29 years old and should be in the prime of his career while Jim Miller is now 35 years old and nearing the end of his career. Before Miller’s last win he was on a 4-fight losing streak and looking like he was going to be cut if he lost to Alex White. I think this is a bad matchup for Miller and I think Do Bronx gets his revenge by submitting the guy who submitted him 8 years ago. I think Do Bronx is the better striker, the better submission artist and I see him winning where ever this fight goes. The only thing I would be worried about is him getting clipped and curling up until the ref steps in. That is possible, but I don’t see it happening. I think Do Bronx goes for takedowns early in this fight and if he can get in a dominant position he can submit anybody and that is what I think happens here.
On DraftKings, Do Bronx is my preferred play and I will be full fading Miller in this spot. I think Miller is a big enough name to gain enough ownership that I am willing to just fade it and get my leverage on other underdogs with a better shot of winning. I do like Do Bronx to win this fight and he should be able to 10x his salary with a W here. He just doesn’t really have that 120+ point upside like other fighters on this card do. Oliveira doesn’t do a lot of striking on the ground and usually locks up subs pretty quick, so most of his points come from the finish bonus where other guys like Grant and Adams are going to strike until the ref pulls them off or until their opponents are unconscious and they can reach 120 or more if that is in round 1. I do think Oliveira is a solid cash play because I feel like it’s a fairly safe win, and I will probably be overweight in GPPs as well, but this definitely isn’t an all-in spot if you are mass entering because Do Bronx has been known to quit in fights and his ceiling is limited with the style he brings to the table.
Winner – Charles Oliveira via 1st round submission
Rob Font $8,400 vs Sergio Pettis $7,800
Rob Font
Age: 31
Height: 5’8
Weight: 135
Reach: 71.5”
Gym: Team Sityodtong
From: Massachussetts
UFC Record: 5-3
Fight Matrix: 22
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -170
Font will be taking on Sergio Pettis who will be moving back up to 135 lbs, after a very successful flyweight campaign. He lost his last match to Jussier Formiga, but he was 5-2 at FW with wins over John Moraga, and Joseph Benavidez. Rob Font is coming off a decision loss to Raphael Assunscao where he was on the wrong end of a usual Assunscao performance. He has some big time knock out victories in the UFC in his own right, and this should be a high level striking match. Sergio Pettis will be fighting in his home town, and definitely will have the support of the crowd. Rob Font is a beast, and very technical striker himself. He has a great jab and will double & triple up on it. He does a good job of skipping in with a jab straight right hand, and his straight right is accurate and powerful. He has a nice check left hook, right uppercut combination. He has good footwork and does a great job of cutting off the cage & keeping opponents on the back foot. He has nice leg kicks, front & round kicks to the head & body. He has nasty knees, and great timing on them to counter takedown attempts. He throws a lot of volume and has a good style to win decisions. He can sometimes get too confident and bring his chin high & gets flat footed leaving him susceptible to counters. I feel that Pettis’s speed may pay dividends, and he will be able to counter with straight punches & overhands when Font tries to close the distance.
He is an improved grappler and tends to try to get opponents down especially in round 1 now and mix it up. He has good double leg takedowns and will use a single to push his opponents to the cage where he has nasty knees and elbows in close. He has good body lock takedowns, and solid single legs. On top he has strong ground & pound and is always looking to snatch up that neck. He has a very nice guillotine. He has very good power, and a lot of nasty KOs in the UFC. He has finished all his UFC wins, and has 4 KO/TKOs in 5 wins. He has 7 KO/TKOs overall. He has a good chin, and never been finished, and fought fighters such as John Lineker. He will get into a bit of a defensive shell when he gets hit and back up, which has lost him some fights. He has good cardio and can go for all three rounds. Font needs to use his physicality here. Forward pressure Pettis with jabs & straight punches, back him to the cage and mix in grappling exchanges. He has good wrestling against the cage, and if he can put Pettis on his back, it would help him win a decision.
Sergio Pettis
Age: 25
Height: 5’6
Weight: 135
Reach: 69”
Gym: Roufusport
From: Wisconsin
UFC Record: 8-4
Fight Matrix: 4 (FW)
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +150
Sergio Pettis is looking to jump right into bantamweight with a ranked win. He was one fight away from a title shot at FW, and now will have to rebuild. He is a fantastic, and very technical striker. He is an excellent striker, he throws tight, straight punches, with little to no telegraph that are deadly accurate. He also has very formidable kicks in his arsenal as well. He has nice leg kicks, round kicks & front kicks to the body. He also throws hook kicks to the face. Pettis has one of the best jabs in the UFC, he does a great job of jabbing in the pocket and stepping back making you miss and countering with a short shot that fighters don’t see coming. He has a great one two off the jab, and very nice pull counters with his right hand. He will throw an accurate check left hook, and he really hurt Joseph Benavidez with it. He does a fantastic job of controlling the center of the cage by switching stances, he will walk opponents down, and if they try to blitz him, angle off, switch stances, and jab from the opposite stance. He has very good defense, and always keeps opponents at the end of his punches, but the few times he’s been clipped he’s shown maybe he doesn’t have the best chin. He has been finished twice by finish in the UFC early in his career. He doesn’t have big power, and just has 3 KO/TKOs & none in the UFC.
Sergio isn’t the grappler that his brother Anthony is. His guard is not as dangerous, and if he gets taken down in this matchup he will be in serious trouble. Pettis does a good job with range control, and never getting stuck against the cage or standing in front of his opponents, making it hard for them to time a shot. Henry Cejudo & Formiga were able to shoot and get doubles, and singles, but his takedown defense has definitely improved. Benavidez who is a great wrestler, really struggled to take Pettis down. Pettis was able to make him pay when he closed the distance with short, stinging punches and disengage when Benavidez was able to get in the clinch. He will try to get a guillotine if he can time the takedown, and will throw up submissions from his guard, but fighters have been able to easily pass his guard. Pettis should look to control the center and dictate the pace in this fight. If he can land leg kicks, bait Font in and counter with his straights and overhands he may be the faster crisper striker all night.
I think Font is the more dangerous fighter in this match and I think he has the higher ceiling in this fight as well. However, I think Pettis is able to keep this fight close and I see him pulling off a home town upset here. Pettis should be the quicker fighter in this matchup since he is coming up from 125 and I think he can hit and move enough to frustrate Font and win a decision. The crowd is going to be fully behind Pettis here and will be cheering every time he lands anything and that does sway judges. If Font doesn’t knockout Pettis, he is going to need a clear win to get the judges to see it his way.
On DraftKings, this is a fight I am pretty much staying away from. I do like Pettis to win, but I think he scores 65-75 points in a decision win and there are underdogs with higher ceilings that I would rather chase. Pettis still might make my player pool, but he won’t be a heavy play of mine even though I am picking him to win outright. I also won’t have much, if any Font because I think he loses this fight. I would say he is the better GPP target because he has the higher finishing potential and if he can get a KO then he has a good chance at being on the winning lineup at his $8.4k salary, so no issues if you want to play him, I will just be targeting other favorites more. If I am making 10 lineups I would guess each fighter makes 1 lineup if they make my pool at all.
Winner- Sergio Pettis via Split Decision
Dan Hooker $8,200 vs Edson Barboza $8,000
Dan Hooker
Age: 28
Height: 6’0
Weight: 155
Reach: 75”
Gym: City Kickboxing
From: New Zealand
UFC Record: 7-3
Fight Matrix: 17
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: -105
Edson Barboza vs Dan Hooker is a striking fans dream. Both guys are long, dynamic strikers who can knock fighters out with punches, knees, and kicks. Barboza is the long-time veteran, who has fought everyone in the sport, while Dan Hooker is the upstart trying to make his name. Barboza has lost back to back fights, but they were against the two premier wrestlers in the division, and now he will get a striking fight which is what he wants. Dan Hooker has looked excellent since moving to 155 and is riding a back to back knock out streak. Dan Hooker has looked like a new fighter since moving to 155 lbs. He dusted Gilbert Burns who just had a very impressive performance, in less than 3 minutes. He will be training with Israel Adesanya in the lead up to this fight who is a good look for Barboza. Hooker has a great jab and a nice straight right hand. he uses great movement and angles and will keep fighters on the end of his punches. He switches stances a lot and can jab off both stances making him tricky. He also will switch stance mid combination, and throw straight punches when he sees angles to catch opponents coming in. He was able to overwhelm Burns with his precision and hurt him early. Burns was very deliberate in that fight and easy to see coming in, and this is a much harder matchup. He has great kicks; nice leg kicks, great round kicks, snap kicks to the body and nice head kicks. He has a really nice snap front kick. He also has a great lead knee that he’s knocked out Ross Pearson and Jim Miller with. He is riding a four-fight finish streak and has not really taken much damage in those fights. He is a vet and does a great job of picking up the pace as the fight goes on with great cardio. He has 5 KO/TKOs, most by head kick. He has never been finished by strikes.
Hooker is a solid grappler, but not much of a wrestler. He will try to close the distance and get the fight against the cage. He will try to get singles, and double legs. He also has good clinch trips, and his height gives him an advantage in those positions. He does a good job of getting the back when he gets on top, and he has good control, and long arms which he can find a choke with. His takedown defense is not great, but he has an awesome guillotine he will counter with when fighters attempt takedowns, and he has a great squeeze. He has 7 career submissions. He is susceptible to being beat up and submitted if he’s put on his back and has been submitted twice. I don’t see much grappling from Barboza happening in this match. Hooker needs to pressure Barboza, get him moving backwards and throw more volume. He needs to throw a lot of straight punches, jabs, and try to make Barboza make a mistake and catch him closing the distance. I can see Hooker landing a jab or straight punch hurting Barboza and jumping on a guillotine for a submission victory.
Edson Barboza
Age: 32
Height: 5’11
Weight: 155
Reach: 75”
Gym: ATT
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 13-6
Fight Matrix: 10
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -115
Barboza needs a win here, and with a loss he would be in no man’s land in his career. He changed camps for this fight and went out to ATT, so you know he is getting good sparring. Barboza is one of the best knockout artists in MMA history. His knockouts of Terry Etim & Beniel Dariush where a thing of beauty. Barboza is great at maintaining distance and staying at his range. He uses nasty low leg kicks, or jabs to keep the distance, and stay at kicking range. He does a great job of using his jab, and then pull countering his opponent with a left hook. He is blistering fast with his hand speed, and can counter with that left hook, and exit. He will dig to the body with a left hook, and also throw a left uppercut as well. Barboza has nasty flying knees and does a great job of figuring out how his opponents set up takedowns, and then countering with it. His switch kicks to the body are super-fast, and I feel his overall speed will give Hooker a lot of issues. I see his low leg kick being very effective in this match, because Hooker stands tall, and heavy on his lead leg. He has nasty spinning back kicks to the body & head, some of the best of all time. Barboza has improved defensively, but he still has problems with pressure. He backs to the cage and allows fighters to close the distance with punches or takedowns. For fighters to be effective vs Barboza on the feet, they have to pressure opponents, and not let Barboza fight a range striking match. He has 10 KO/TKOs and has only been finished once by strikes. He was stopped by a doctor’s stoppage against Kevin Lee, but he has shown to be chinny being dropped by a jab & submitted by Cerrone. He took a massive amount of damage in his last two fights, and it’s hard to know how his chin will bounce back, but he showed the ability to take a ton of punishment and not quit or get knocked out in those matches.
Barboza is very athletic and has even started to implement some takedowns of his own later in his UFC career. He has a decent double leg and will get into the clinch and drive through with and trip his opponents to the mat. He does a good job of catching kicks and dumping opponents. He has very good takedown defense, even though he got taken down by his last two opponents. He has very fast reactions and can sprawl on doubles and singles from the outside. He has very strong hips, and even when fighters are able to get in on his legs, he can shuck them off. He does a good job of getting an overhook and forcing a double leg into a clinch where he has nasty knees to the body and is strong overall. He has only been taken down and held down by Khabib and Kevin Lee, and everyone knows their pedigrees. Barboza is not an active seeker of the submission and hasn’t had a submission since 2009. He only has one submission in his career. He has good submission defense and has only been submitted after being stunned on the feet. He has been submitted twice by Tony Ferguson & Donald Cerrone. Barboza is going to get a range striking fight here which is where he thrives. He needs to use his leg kicks, and left hook to the head & body. He is going to be the much faster fighter in my opinion, and if he can find his range, land his kicks, punching combinations and exit he should dominate this fight. He has to be careful not to be hit by a jab or straight punch he doesn’t see coming, because we have seen him dropped and submitted previously.
This should be a fun fight. I am much more interested in watching this fight than I am in using it in DraftKings though. I think this fight will play out on the feet for as long as it lasts. I think Barboza is the better striker, but he is also the fighter who has taken more damage and has the worse chin. If this fight does go to a decision I don’t see either fighter having a chance at 100-points and I am not even sure if they would 10x their price tag. I do think both guys have solid finishing potential here but that is what we are relying on if we are rostering this fight in GPPs. I see Barboza landing leg kicks early and often to try and slow down Hooker and I think he is the better fighter and the more likely fighter to win a decision if there is no finish. Barboza has also finished people with kicks to the legs, kicks to the body, and head kicks. So, even though he has the worse chin in this matchup, he is also the more dangerous guy and could finish Hooker in any round himself. Hooker’s best shot to win this is by testing that chin and getting a KO as early as he can, so he doesn’t have to eat too many leg kicks in the process.
On DraftKings, Barboza is my preferred play. I think he is being written off due to recency bias because he lost his last 2 and Hooker has won his last 4. However, this fight should be a striking battle and there aren’t many people better than Barboza in that area, so I have to side with Edson to get the win. I think both guys are playable for their finishing potential, but this is not a fight I will be targeting heavily. If I am making 10 lineups I would think Edson makes 2 or 3 and Hooker makes maybe 1. I also wouldn’t target this fight in cash because it is such a close fight I would rather just target wins I am more confident in or go with a stars/scrubs cash game approach. I think this fight will be a fun one to watch but I actually don’t think we see a finish here and I think the winner likely scores right around 10x their salary and I am not sure that will be enough to end up on the 1st place lineup.
Winner – Edson Barboza via Unanimous Decision
Kevin Lee $9,000 vs Al Iaquinta $7,200
Kevin Lee
Age: 26
Height: 5’9
Weight: 155
Reach: 75.5”
Gym: Xtreme Couture
From: Michigan
UFC Record: 10-3
Fight Matrix: 6
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -300
Kevin Lee vs Al Iaquinta is an interesting rematch. Al Iaquinta took the first fight 4 years ago, and now is prohibitive underdog 4 years later. That fight was Kevin Lee’s UFC debut, and he was 21 years old. Kevin Lee has been the most active fighter in the LW division and skyrocketed into an interim title fight vs Tony Ferguson. Al Iaquinta has struggled with a lot of injuries, and after a win streak lost a decision in an inspiring performance on short notice against Khabib. Kevin Lee has really improved his striking, his boxing in particular. He trains with Dewey Cooper at Mayweather Boxing gym and gets great boxing work in. He has a strong jab, and nice one two. He will lead with a straight right hand, and it’s his most powerful punch. He likes to counter with left hooks as fighters close the distance, and he has the power to make opponents respect him on the feet. He throws a lot of hard leg & body kicks. He will throw front kicks to the body & head and landed a nice round head kick on Francisco Trinaldo. Lee is good at changing stances and throwing kicks to the open side. He can throw kicks with both legs & from both stances fluidly. He also does a good job of faking level changes and coming over the top with overhands. Kevin Lee can lose focus at times after he lands shots, and not defend himself and is susceptible to counters. He gets caught admiring his work. He has gotten much better with that and after feeing Iaquinta’s power in their last fight I see him having his defense on point. He has big power, but only two KO/TKOs because he’s more of a wrestler. He has a good chin and has only been finished 1 time by strikes.
Kevin Lee is a huge lightweight, and super physical. He has great double leg takedowns and will drive his opponents to the cage. He is extremely physically strong, and when he gets his hands locked he will slam his opponents. His long reach allows him to get in on the legs of his opponents from a long way out. He is a good chain wrestler shooting single legs in space, getting to a double leg and even having good clinch takedowns. On top he is amazing. He has nasty ground & pound, sick elbows & hammer fists. He is very heavy on top and has great back takes. He has great rear naked chokes and gotten them against great grapplers. He showed phenomenal cardio in his last match pushing an incredible pace and surviving and recovering from a spinning back kick which almost KO’d him. Kevin Lee should take Al down, get the back and go for the rear naked choke. He almost got it in the first match and he’s much improved since then. He should look to set up his takedowns with punching combinations, and after he can get Iaquinta tired, I see him landing the jab, and kicks from the outside rather easily. Khabib was able to land jabs on Iaquinta and his jab isn’t as good as Lee and his reach isn’t as long.
Al Iaquinta
Age: 31
Height: 5’10
Weight: 155
Reach: 70”
Gym: Serra-Longo Fight Team
From: New York
UFC Record: 8-3
Fight Matrix: 16
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +250
Al Iaquinta is a former college wrestler with heavy hands. He is a boxer, who will use solid footwork and movement and make you come to him and try to counter with his right hand. He has big power in that shot and can turn the fight with it. He has a good left hook and decent jab, and leg kick. He has good footwork and does a good job of cutting off the cage and making it small. He has a good jab to left hook combination. He does a good job of slipping uppercuts into his combinations, and he strings punches together well. He will get wild at times and come in with looping hooks that miss horribly. When he has fighters hurt he does a great job of getting the finish. He has 8 KO/TKOs in his career, and never has been finished by strikes.
Iaquinta is a former college wrestler, but he prefers to use it in reverse & strike in the UFC usually. He will shoot for single leg takedowns, and double leg to body lock takedowns. He only has 8 UFC takedowns, and not many during his prior win streak. He has good takedown defense. He will use overhooks to deny doubles, and shows good balance moving his back to the cage on singles. He has nice switches, and if he does get taken down plays a nice butterfly guard. When he was taken down by Kevin Lee in their previous fight Lee had a lot of success and almost finished Al, so I imagine al will really try to control the distance in this match. Al isn’t a submission threat with only 1 career submission in his UFC debut. He has been submitted in 3 of his 4 losses. He needs to use footwork to cut off the cage, and make Lee go backwards, but stay in the center. He can’t let Lee push him back to the fence where he is a master at getting the fight to the ground. If he does get taken down stay calm, work back to his feet, and make Lee work and earn every takedown. Iaquinta has the power to knock Lee out if he can connect and has the confidence of beating him before.
This is the 2nd rematch of the night and just like the first one, I see this fight going differently. Iaquinta beat Kevin Lee in Lee’s UFC debut after Al had already made a name for himself. Lee was just a kid back then and now he is leaps and bounds ahead of where he was and Iaquinta is kind of the same guy he was back then. I think Lee dominates this fight as long as he doesn’t get finished. We have seen Lee rocked a few times and do the chicken dance and Al does have big power, so he could knock Lee out and destroy the title shot momentum Lee has built up. I just think if Lee is struggling on the feet he can take this fight down any time he wants, and he is going to be much more dominant on the ground. I think Lee is right up there for one of the best wrestlers in the UFC and if he will be the fighter who controls where this fight takes place. I think he can win on the feet as well, but I would be more worried there for the KO potential. I think Lee should go for takedowns and try to get the back of Al and lock up a RNC. I think he could get multiple takedowns in each round this fight goes to and he has the highest ceiling on the card with this being a 5-round match. I like him so much here that I might not even stack in cash games and just roll out Lee solo.
On DraftKings, Lee is one of the best plays on the board. If he wins, he is for sure scoring over 10x his $9k salary and he even scored 164 DK points in his last win over Barboza so that is the type of ceiling we are working with here. I do think main events are almost always the best fights to target for DK, so this is probably an all-in fight for me and I will probably be close to the 9/1 range in favor of Lee here. I am still not sure if I will stack or not, but Lee will 100% be in my cash LU this week. I expect a dominant win from Lee here and I think we see him in a title fight at some point next year.
Winner – Kevin Lee via 3rd round submission
Thanks again for purchasing this article and be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building and I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks and predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice and fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley, and if you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.