BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC 232 Location – Inglewood, California
Thanks for purchasing my UFC 232 DraftKings breakdown. As always, my goal here is not to give you my personal lineups, but help you learn to build better lineups yourself, as well as give you my personal picks and strategies for each fight card. Every week I will do my best to break down every fight on the card from a fight standpoint, as well as a DraftKings standpoint. I will also give my pick prediction for each fight along with the method of victory. However, just because I am picking a fighter to win may not mean they are the fighter I would prefer to roster on DraftKings, so be sure to read through my analysis to see where my head is at in my own lineup constructions. Secondly, if there is anything you think I can add to these be sure to message me on twitter at @BigMarley3 and I will take it into consideration.
This weekend, we have a 13-fight card that was moved from Vegas to California in a weeks’ notice. We have some solid contests to end the year off right on DraftKings and there is a lot of money to be won. The main GPP is a $10 entry with $50,000 to 1st place. Those are always my favorite contests to chase so I will probably max that hoping to hit big. Other than that, I will stick to my 3-entry max & single entry GPPs. I will also be picking up H2Hs throughout the week and I will get a good amount of play in cash games.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, lets break down these UFC 232 fights and hopefully I can help you build some winning lineups:
Montel Jackson $8,400 vs Brian Kelleher $7,800
Montel Jackson
Age: 26
Height: 5’9
Weight: 135
Reach: 75”
Gym: Pura Vida BJJ
From: Milwaukee
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix:
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -165
Montel Jackson is a physical freak and a bit of a phenom. He is a bantamweight with a 75” reach and hands bigger than Francis Ngannou’s. He is blazing fast and has nasty kicks, knees and straight punches. He is a south paw with a nasty jab and straight left hand. He does a great job of hand fighting with his front hand and then coming with his straight left hand. He is very accurate with his punches and has big power. He has great distance control and does a great job of sliding in and out of range and countering with long range attacks. He has great front knees to the body and head. He also will attack with lightning fast front kicks to the body and head. He has a nice round kick to the head and body, and his kicks come fast without any Telegraph. He is at his best when he is coming forward, stalking his opponents to the fence, even in space he is accurate and extremely dangerous, but can get out volumed. He has very good defense and rarely gets hit clean. He has a calmness about him and is always very aware and in the moment in the cage. He doesn’t get tired and is able to be just as effective with his striking in round 1, as he is in round 3. Jackson is going to be the significantly faster fighter and his striking at range will give Kelleher major problems if he can’t close the distance.
Jackson is a great grappler as well. He is a great wrestler, he was training to wrestle in the Olympics before transitioning to MMA. He does a great job of getting in the clinch, circling to the back and getting slam takedowns. He also has very good high crotch slams. He has unbelievable grip strength and is able to control the wrist in the clinch. He was able to control Ricky Simon’s wrist in space with one hand, while punching with the other, which I have never seen before his last fight. He has very good takedown defense and is hard to take and hold down. He does a great job of shucking off attempts, and limp legging out of single legs. He has very good hips and is extremely long, making him super hard to take down in the clinch. He can get taken down with well-timed double legs and body locks and was grinded out by one of the best fighters IMO in the 135 lb division in Ricky Simon. He was able to reverse several takedowns of Simon and end up on top as well as earning takedowns himself and defending a majority of them. Jackson is very explosive and able to change position very quickly on top. Jackson’s wrist control makes it very hard for his opponents to get damage off on the mat. Jackson should look to deny the takedown attempts that I think Kelleher will attempt and work his striking game. I believe if Kelleher can’t take him down and is forced to strike that Jackson has a good chance of getting a finish.
Brian Kelleher
Age: 32
Height: 5’6
Weight: 135
Reach: 66”
Gym: Maxum BJJ
From: New York
UFC Record: 3-2
Fight Matrix:
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +145
Brian Kelleher has been up and down in his UFC tenure, but he also is ready to throw down and bring an exciting fight. He is coming off a pretty brutal knockout loss at the hands of John Lineker and will be looking to bounce back here with a win in his home state. Kelleher has been an overachiever in his career and after a slow start made a name for himself and beat some legends of the sport. He is very aggressive with his forward pressure and does a great job of staying in his opponent’s faces and not giving them a chance to breathe. He has a good jab, and he likes to throw a jab leg kick or jab body kick combination. He has a good, long right hook and does a good job of landing it when his opponents are trying to circle away. He has a good left hook, in the pocket, and does a good job of throwing and moving his head off center line making him harder to hit. He has a good front kick to the body. He will throw a nice uppercut left hook in the pocket and will throw full power on his right hook. He likes to throw spinning back fists, and he will throw a right hook right off it. His cardio is tremendous and he’s able to push and stay in his opponent’s face, even in round 3. He has shown a great chin over his career, but he was brutally KO’d his last fight in a war against John Lineker. He seems confident and ready to get back on the horse, but you have to wonder how that fight will affect him going forward. He has some decent pop in his shots, with 7 career KO/TKOs.
Kelleher is strong in the clinch, he does a good job of digging under hooks, landing knees and short shots. He has good control in the clinch and can bank time with control against the fence. He isn’t a great wrestler, but he will grind for doubles against the cage. He is only 4/14 on takedown attempts in his UFC career. He has good takedown defense himself and has a great guillotine he will attack with. He does a great job of wrapping up the neck and rolling into mount where he will still have dominant position even if he can’t finish the choke. He was able to get Iuri Alcantara in his guillotine in his UFC debut. Off his back he hasn’t shown much in the UFC, but he does a good job of getting his back against the cage and standing back up. He is a warrior and will continue to come forward until the bitter end. He needs to constantly close the distance, go for takedowns and make it a grinding fight. If he is forced to hang around on the outside with Jackson, he will be in for a long night.
With this fight being in the mid-range for DraftKings salaries, I think this fight will be somewhat popular because it fits well into lineups. I think Jackson is the more talented fighter here, but Kelleher is a vet and he will be putting the pressure on Jackson from the start. I think the stand-up department should favor Jackson by a good margin, but I expect Kelleher to try to close distance and get the fight against the cage to try and land takedowns. If he can get takedowns here, he might be able to lock up a submission. He has also said in interviews that he thinks he will get a submission win in this fight. So, I think that is what he will be looking for. Jackson does have good wrestling though and I think he will be able to stuff a lot of Kelleher’s takedowns and keep this fight on the feet. Kelleher only has a 28.57% takedown accuracy, but he does land 1.29 takedowns per 15 minutes. 42% of his wins come via submission though, so Jackson should try to keep this standing. Jackson is also going to have a 9-inch reach advantage here, so I think if he can keep this fight standing, and at distance, he should get an easy victory here. He does also have 100% takedown accuracy of his own, so he could get takedowns as well. I would be worried about the guillotine in that case, but I don’t think I would worry about Kelleher too much off his back.
My preferred play in this fight is going to be Jackson. I think he is going to have a solid UFC career and this should be the win that puts him on the map. Kelleher is coming off a KO loss, so Jackson could hand him two in a row here, but I think a decision win is most likely. I think this will have some back and forth moments, but as long as Jackson can avoid the guillotine, and being put on his back, I think he gets the W by having the better striking and landing the more damaging blows. I think this is a great fight to target since it is in that mid-range, but I will be much heavier on Jackson. If I was making just 10 lineups I would have zero Kelleher and maybe 3-4 Jackson. However, I am going to have 150 lineups, so Kelleher will make my player pool for that reason, but I would think only 10% or so for me personally.
Winner – Montel Jackson via Unanimous Decision
Nathaniel Wood $8,200 vs Andre Ewell $8,000
Nathaniel Wood
Age: 25
Height: 5’6
Weight: 135
Reach: 69”
Gym: Titan Fighter
From: England
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 46
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W6
Betting Odds: -105
Nathaniel Wood is a very technical striker with big power. He has a very nice jab, and a good one-two. He has a nice straight right hand left hook combination. He has strong leg kicks and will attack the legs early & often. He likes to walk forward, stand right in front of opponents flat footed and get them to throw so he can counter. He likes to counter with straight right hands, and hooks. He will throw a left hook, front kick to the body straight right-hand combination. He has a nice front kick to the body. He has good head movement, a great chin overall and willing to take shots to give his own. He throws a lot of volume, and slowly starts to wear on opponents if fights go long. If he gets clipped, he will back up to the cage, and use head movement and a high guard to defend while trying to land one big shot. While it isn’t a great strategy IMO, he has been able to catch and finish opponents doing this. He has one punch knock out power if he lands clean and keeps his power for all three rounds. He has 9 KO/TKOs, and only been finished once by strikes due to doctor’s stoppage.
Wood isn’t an offensive grappler, but he has good technique, and will drop and submit opponents. He has very good takedown defense. He has good sprawls, and he will look for chokes from the front headlock position. He got a Darce Choke after denying the takedown of Johnny Eduardo. I haven’t seen fights of him where he gets taken down & is forced to work off his back. He does have a triangle choke, on his record. He has a rear naked choke as well. He has 3 submissions in his career. He has been submitted two times himself, but none since 2015. He is riding a 6-fight finish streak and has a lot of confidence coming into this matchup. Nathaniel Wood is going to need to stay technical & not get drawn into a war by Ewell. Andre is extremely dynamic and likes to close the distance with long explosive attacks. Wood needs to use leg kicks to chop the legs of Ewell, because he stands heavy on his lead leg, but switches stances. He should be careful early, and get the distance & timing of Ewell, and then try to pick him off with shots when he comes inside. Wood already likes to counter strike, and Ewell will give him plenty of opportunities. Taking him down could also be a game plan.
Andre Ewell
Age: 30
Height: 5’11
Weight: 135
Reach: 75”
Gym: Apex MMA
From: California
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 21
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W5
Betting Odds: -115
Andre Ewell made a splash in his UFC debut defeating former UFC champion Renan Barao. Barao is a shell of his former self, and I feel Wood is a stiffer test. Ewell is a very big athletic 135er with a 75” reach. He will have a 6” reach advantage for this matchup. Ewell is a very fast & powerful striker. He has a nice jab, and a nasty straight right hand. Ewell is more of a counter striker as well. He likes to try to wait for opponents to strike & come over the top with straight punches. He is good at striking going backwards and can switch stances to create new angles to land shots. He will move backwards, switch stances, drive on his back foot and spring quickly into a straight left hand. He likes to throw head kicks from southpaw after he lands the left hand, and he’s earned a knockout with that combination. He does a great job of countering in the pocket with a shovel hook/uppercut with big power, and I feel when Wood is using head movement he could land it. He has good power with 7 KO/TKOs, and a good chin never being finished by strikes.
Ewell’s grappling is improving, but still a huge hole in his game. He leaves his leg easily available to get single legged, and lets fighters close the distance and take him down with body locks rather easily. He will try to lock into guillotines, and front chokes to defend takedowns. Off his back he is green. He was pushing himself away from the cage making it easier for Barao to control him in his last match and was almost arm barred. He is very explosive and was able to explode out & return to his feet. He has strong cardio and can go hard all three rounds. If this fight has no grappling, it’s better for Ewell. He should look to keep it on the feet & have a kick boxing match. Wood is hittable, and Ewell has the power to knock him out.
This is the hardest fight on the card for me to predict, and I don’t feel confident picking either guy here. Ewell is going to be the bigger fighter with a 7-inch reach advantage, and I expect this fight to play out on the feet. I think that size advantage will lead to him putting the pressure on Wood while Wood tries to counter and get in and out. Ewell has the slightly better ITD line at +245 compared to Wood’s +280, but with 1 UFC fight each Wood landed 4.52 sig strikes per minute compared to Ewell’s 3.53. I think that pace could help Wood earn a decision win if it goes all 15-minutes, but if there is a finish in this fight then it’s a bit more likely that Ewell is the one with his hand raised. I really don’t have a good read on this fight and I have changed my pick a few times this week. Right now, I am going to lean towards Wood based on his pace, plus I am more impressed in what I have seen from him in previous fights, plus I think with the $200 discount Ewell might be the higher owned guy.
On DraftKings I will say my preferred play is Wood because I am picking him to win. It is not a confident pick at all though and I will probably be close to even with my exposure on these two. But with it being such a close fight and Wood being $200 more on DK, I have to think more people lean towards Ewell and I would rather just have the lower owned guy. If the line changes and it looks like Wood will be the higher owned guy, then I would prefer Ewell. It’s that close for me. If you are making 1-5 lineups, I would probably just fade this fight unless you have a stronger lean than I do. I wouldn’t want to take that risk with 1-5 lineups and I don’t think this fight is super likely to end up on the optimal lineup, so I think a fade is fine. With 150 lineups I will have exposure to both guys, but I will probably be around 15% or so for each guy, and if I go heavier on either I am thinking that would be Wood. I do think it will be a fun back and forth fight though, so I am hoping for a 29-28 score with neither guy scoring a ton of points.
Winner – Nathaniel Wood via Split Decision
Uriah Hall $8,300 vs Bevon Lewis $7,900
Uriah Hall
Age: 34
Height: 6’0
Weight: 185
Reach: 79.5”
Gym: Kings MMA
From: New York
UFC Record: 6-7
Fight Matrix: 16
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 1-4
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -110
Uriah Hall is a super dynamic striker with some fantastic finishes. He looked fantastic in his last fight, and I hope he comes with the same mind set. Hall has had problems showing up in fights at times and needs to be mentally on to defeat a fighter like Lewis. Hall has lost 4 of 5 fights, and with a loss here I believe he will be cut. Hall has a phenomenal jab, and great lateral movement. He was fantastic controlling the distance with his jab against Costa. He has a nice left hook. He has a nasty straight & overhand right, & when he lands clean he can put fighters out cold. He will throw nice inside & outside leg kicks and will attack the body with round kicks. He has a great spinning back kick to the body or head, sometimes a jumping back kick and he is not someone you want to strike at range with. He is extremely fast and explosive & is always one punch or kick away from changing the fight. He has big power, and when he wins it’s usually by knockout with 12 KO/TKOs in 17 wins including TUF. He has a good chin, the ability to take punishment, and come back with his own, but he doesn’t have great defense when he gets hurt. He will back up to the cage and stand right in front of opponents trying to throw back. It makes it possible for opponents to tee off on him against the cage. He got clipped with big uppercuts against the cage against Jotko, and Lewis throws that technique very well. He has been KO/TKO’d 4 times, and 3 times in his last 4 fights.
Hall is not much of a grappler, and definitely prefers a range striking fight. Hall will rarely go for takedowns or look for the clinch. He has good lateral movement, is dangerous with knees, and kicks making fighters hesitant to shoot in on him from a distance. When he does get taken down he doesn’t have great defense, and was finished with G&P by Mousasi, and hit with huge shots against Jotko. He will attack with submissions off his back such as arm bars and triangles, but overall his submission game is not super dangerous. Being on his back or in the clinch is not somewhere he wants to be in this match. He needs to use his lateral movement to keep the distance and not get backed up. If he can use his jab to set up his right hand and kicks, that’s his best chance to win. He needs to try to catch Lewis coming in and make him hesitant to close the distance. Lewis hasn’t fought many times, and this is definitely a huge step up experience wise, so if Hall can keep him on the outside early and ping him up he could break him mentally.
Bevon Lewis
Age: 27
Height: 6’3
Weight: 185
Reach: 79”
Gym: Jackson-Wink MMA
From: California
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 169
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W6
Betting Odds: -110
Bevon Lewis is being talked about as a phenom, and the next great fighter out of Jackson-Wink. He is 6’3 with a 79” reach, and an imposing figure in the cage. He is getting a big step up in competition here, only being 6-0. Lewis is 2-0 on the DWTNCS, and now finally getting his first UFC match, in a high-profile spot. He has a nasty jab, and a great straight right hand. He is very accurate with it & will use it to close the distance. He has a nice left hook, and amazing front kicks to the legs & body. He likes to slip and throw the straight right hand. He has nice head kicks that are hard to see coming. He will throw nice step in elbows. He is always switching stances, and it makes it hard to get a beat on him. He can get caught coming in at times. He showed a good chin, and recoverability against Elias Urbina, getting rocked with a flying knee, and quickly recovering. He is very quick with huge power, and he can close the show with one shot. He has 3 KO/TKOs and is undefeated.
Lewis is a strong grappler, he is super dangerous in the clinch. He has nasty elbows, and great knees to the body & head. He has great uppercuts and hooks to the body. He finished his last opponent with nasty knees to the head. He is physically strong and can bully and control opponents against the cage. He will land double legs against the cage, and on top his length really gives him a big advantage. His long arms allow him to stand up in opponent’s guards, and land big ground & pound punches. He has good takedown defense & does a great job of defending with front chokes & or sprawling and getting on top. Lewis has good cardio and gets stronger as the fight goes on. He isn’t a submission threat with 0 in his career. Bevon Lewis has had 3 other training partners fighting on this card and should be getting great work in the lead up. Lewis needs to close the distance and make this a clinch fight. If he can get Hall against the cage and start to work with his elbows, and knees he can start to wear on and potentially finish Hall. I feel he can strike at a distance with Hall as well, but he does leave openings and could get clipped.
Hall’s brutal spinning kick KO on TUF was one of the best knockouts I have ever seen. I think that knockout is a big reason he is still in the UFC though. He had a 3-fight losing streak before he beat Jotko, and then he lost again in his last fight against Costa making him 1-4 in his last 5 fights. That one win over Jotko was because Jotko gassed himself from kicking Hall’s ass so bad in round 1, and Hall was able to finish him in round 2. Now he is facing a younger, undefeated prospect who trains with Jon Jones every day. I think Hall has the ability to KO anybody on his best day, but he seems to have not been on his best day for 3-4 years now. I think Hall is on the decline and I think this is a great fight to see how good Bevon Lewis is. From what I have seen, he is like a poor man’s Jon Jones. They are similar in size and style, but Lewis is nowhere near that talent level yet. I think if there are takedowns in this fight it should be Lewis getting them, but I think he can also KO Hall on the feet. I think Hall is going to need a KO though because if Lewis is losing at distance I see him getting the fight against the cage and not giving Hall the space, he needs. I think these salaries should be flipped and even if they were, I would still rather have Lewis in this spot.
On DraftKings, I like the discount we are getting with Lewis and I think he will be the favorite when the fight starts. He is my preferred play and I am not going to have a lot of exposure to Hall. If I was making my usual 20 lineups this week I would probably full fade Hall here. I am sure there is not much Hall is going to show Lewis that he hasn’t already seen from his main training partner Jon Jones. With 150 LUs, I will have 10% or so Hall because he is live for the KO, but I don’t see him getting it and I want to be overweight on Lewis at $7.9k. If this fight goes to a decision I don’t see either fighter scoring highly, but I think with possible takedowns Lewis has the higher ceiling of the two in a decision. Hall does have the better ITD line at +180 compared to Lewis’ +241, but Hall has been (T)KO’d 4 times himself and 3 times in the past two years, so I don’t agree with those ITD lines either. I think Lewis could get a KO here and end Hall’s UFC career and I am thinking I will have 30% or more exposure to him for that reason.
Winner – Bevon Lewis via 2nd round (T)KO
Curtis Millender $8,800 vs Siyar Bahadurzada $7,400
Curtis Millender
Age: 31
Height: 6’2
Weight: 170
Reach: 78”
Gym: CSW
From: California
UFC Record: 2-0
Fight Matrix: 30
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W8
Betting Odds: -150
Curtis Millender is a dangerous rangy striker. He is dangerous with everything, punches, kicks, knees, elbows, and overall a great striker. Millender has great distance control, and likes to pressure opponents, slowly slide out of range and time counters. He has a great jab, and strong leg kicks. He has a fast-straight right hand, throws nice counter uppercuts, and left hooks. He has nasty kicks, great front & round body kicks. He is a very tricky striker and is always looking to set up a knee or a nasty high kick. He finished Thiago Alves with a knee in his last fight and had two TKO head kick finishes before that. He has hard leg kicks. His defense is nice, and he changes it up. He will use good slips and head movement at times to avoid shots and come back with counters. He does a good job of hand fighting and coming over the top with shots. He does a good job of staying patient and forcing opponents to come to him, so he can try to walk them into something. He stands very tall and almost square right in front of his opponents, which makes him dangerous from both sides, but also makes him easy to take down and easy to clinch and push against the cage. He sometimes can get caught standing too tall with his hands low on the second or third punch in a combo and I think that’s were Siyar could possibly catch him. He will throw some interesting techniques in close range like front elbows, and hammer fists. He has nasty step in knees to the head & body. He can get his knee to the target extremely fast. He seems to start slow & then pick it up as the fight continues. He lost the first round to Kevin Holland & Max Griffin before winning the decisions. He has 6 KO/TKOs and is a big strong WW with a great chin never being finished by strikes.
Millender is an improving grappler, and dangerous in the clinch. He has nasty knees to the body, head, and great elbows & uppercuts in close. He will throw a flurry of elbows & knees in the clinch and can hurt and finish fighters in that position. I still feel he can improve how he deals with forward pressure. He tends to stand too tall, and will try to counter moving backwards, but if he doesn’t land fighters are clinched up with him against the cage or taken down. Max Griffin was able to land an overhand into a takedown and control Millender on his back rather easily. Millender doesn’t seem to have much off his back and just tries to control posture and not take damage. He did get a nice body lock takedown against Griffin, and if he can get on top he is dangerous. He will unload with a barrage of hammer fists and will attack with elbows to the body as well. He has great cardio and can go for 3 rounds easily. He was submitted twice in Bellator, but that was years ago. He has no career submissions. Millender needs to control distance, use a lot of head movement, parry, roll with punches & counter. If he can counter the crazy hooks & uppercuts and hit Bahadurzada with shots he doesn’t see coming, he could hurt Siyar. He needs to go forward or use lateral movement to avoid being backed up to the cage & potentially taken down.
Siyar Bahadurzada
Age: 34
Height: 5’11
Weight: 170
Reach: 72.5”
Gym: Jackson Wink MMA
From: Netherlands
UFC Record: 4-2
Fight Matrix: 43
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: +130
This is an awesome fight. Both fighters are brutal knockout artists and peaking with major confidence. Siyar Bahadurzada has been training at Jackson-Wink with Jon Jones & Condit who are both fighting on this card. Bahadurzada is extremely aggressive and throws hammers. He has good movement, solid fakes & feints. He likes to wait for fighters to commit, and then counter with punch combinations inside. He does a good job of fighting off his back foot, but he is at his best when is walking forward pressuring opponents. He has a nasty straight left hand to overhand right-hand combination. He will throw the overhand right first as well and is very accurate with it. He throws nasty straight right hands, and everything is with bad intentions. He does a great job of countering the jab with his overhand right. He will throw huge hook combinations when fighters try to close the distance. He will mix uppercuts into his combinations. He has pretty solid hand speed and throws a lot of volume. He has nice front kicks to the body, along with hard leg kicks. He does a great job of catching kicks, and countering with hard punches or dumping his opponents to the ground and getting on top. He is a warrior, and opponents have to knock him out to stop him from trying to knock their head off. He has huge power, and the ability to change the fight with one shot. He has 13 KO/TKOs, and a great chin never being finished by strikes.
Bahadurzada is a solid grappler and will look to wrestle and take opponents down. He has nice body lock takedowns and takedowns against the cage. In top position, he isn’t extremely dangerous, but he does a good job of staying busy enough to keep the fight on the ground & rack up control time. He hasn’t implemented a heavy wresting game in many UFC fights, but he was able to takedown, and submit a tall striker in Brandon Thatch. He got his back taken in his last match, and showed good defense against a black belt, never being really threatened greatly. He has 7 career submissions, and has been submitted twice. He has good cardio, but he does tend to slow down due to throwing everything in his shots. Bahadurzada has a ton of confidence, and feels he is ready to take over the division. He said he has been training for 7 months, and this is the best camp of his life. Bahadurzada needs to close the distance and jam the kicks of Millender. If he can get Millender moving backwards, he may be able to catch him with a big shot when he has him near the cage. I can also see Bahadurzada trying to use movement & try to catch Millender with an overhand right as he throws a kick. Bahadurzada cannot get stuck looking for one big shot, and winging punches while getting out pointed. I think Bahadurzada will try to control Millender against the cage in the clinch and take him down to try and work his GNP.
This should be a fun fight and either guy could get slept in any round. I think the odds are right here and I do slightly favor Millender to get the win. However, he is $1,400 more than Siyar on DraftKings and I think Siyar will be pretty popular for that reason. Siyar has better odds of winning, and finishing than Kelleher, but he is $400 cheaper. That is some decent value on DK, especially for a finisher like him on an impressive 3-fight win streak. Siyar can win this fight on the feet or on the ground, and he has 100+ point upside. Everything points to him being a chalky underdog. I just think Millender has more talent and can use his size to keep this fight at distance and work in his kicks. I think he could get a KO, but I think if this fight stays standing for 15-minutes then I would favor him to win a decision. If Siyar is going to be chalky, that should make Millender under owned and that makes me want to go underweight to Siyar and overweight on Millender.
On DraftKings, I have no issue if you want to load up on Siyar and use him in any format. My preferred play is going to be Millender though and I will be hoping for a finish. If I can get a finish from Millender at low ownership, then not only will that help my lineup score more points, but it would also kill off ~30% or so of GPP lineups that has Siyar. I think Millender will be around 20-25% owned and I see Siyar being closer to 30-35%. I am probably going to flip those for my personal lineups and get leverage on Millender, but still having a good amount of shots on Siyar in case he does get a 4th straight finish. I am not going to pick Millender to get the finish because Siyar has never been KO’d, but he has big power and if he can get the finish then it could win a GPP if I am right about the ownership. I do prefer Millender more as a GPP play than I do cash games though. I think he is ok for cash as well if you have $8.8k left for you last spot, but I would rather lean with the DK value for cash games in most situations.
Winner – Curtis Millender via Split Decision
Ryan Hall $9,400 vs BJ Penn $6,800
Ryan Hall
Age: 33
Height: 5’10
Weight: 155
Reach: 71”
Gym: Tristar MMA
From: Virginia
UFC Record: 2-0
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 2 Years
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -470
Ryan Hall is an interesting fighter. He is very analytical and has what a casual fan would call a very boring style, but he has been dominant so far in his two UFC victories. He was barely hit at all against another veteran of the same era of Penn in Gray Maynard and was able to easily keep him at bay with kicks. He hasn’t fought since then and seems to be looking for fun high-profile fights, and not just trying to take just any fight. He hasn’t fought in 2 years, and Penn has actually fought twice since Hall has last fought. Hall has a karate stance and uses a lot of lateral movement. He throws a lot of front kicks to the legs, body, & head. He will also throw sidekicks to the head & body. He will throw front kicks into spinning back kicks, & has some decent short punches when fighters close the distance. He rarely throws hands, and when fighters get into boxing range against him, he will literally just flop to his back to avoid the punches. He doesn’t throw the kicks with big power, but he has good cardio, and volume. He has two TKOs in his career and has never been finished.
Hall isn’t a wrestler, but with his style he doesn’t need to be. His style forces fighters to either engage at kicking range against Hall, or deal with him off his back. Hall is one of the best grapplers in the world on the ground. He is a Naga super fight champion, and a US grappling super fight champion. Hall also is always looking to use Iminari rolls and attack the legs. He has nasty leg locks and is a master of the 50/50 position. Gray Maynard wanted no part of the ground game with Hall & his timidity to engage on the ground led to his loss. Hall has very fast hips, and a deadly guard. He has nasty triangles, arm bars, and very good sweeps. In top position he has great guard passing and can quickly move to dominant positions. He has a good rear naked choke as well. He has 4 submissions in his MMA career, and has never been submitted. I feel Hall will use the same game plan he did against Maynard. I don’t see him pushing a heavy grappling game plan, and instead moving & kicking, & flopping to his back if Penn gets inside. For Hall, his kicks will definitely be effective in this match, he just needs to be aware that if he cannot get his ground game going off his back, that this is not a BJJ match and to stand up.
BJ Penn
Age: 40
Height: 5’9
Weight: 155
Reach: 70”
Gym: Upper Sportsite Club
From: Hawaii
UFC Record: 12-11-2
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 1 Year 6 Months
Last Five: 0-5
Current Streak: L5
Betting Odds: +375
This is just an odd fight. BJ Penn just can’t let it go. He hasn’t won a fight since 2010 and is riding a 5-fight losing streak. He is fighting Ryan Hall, who is a big name in the jiu-jitsu world and is 2-0 in the UFC. Hall’s striking is not his strong point, and that at least makes it a safer fight for BJ. Penn has been training with Dede Pederneras, Jose Aldo, & Leo Santos for this fight in Brazil, and trying to change things up. In recent fights, even against Yair Rodriguez Penn started aggressively. He has good forward pressure and is looking to land the straight right hand or jab. The problem is other than the forward pressure, his punches come much slower, and don’t look to have the pop they used to have. He has a decent one-two and will jab to the body. He dropped Dennis Siver with a nice uppercut. He keeps his hands low and has bad defense. He gets hit with clean punches & kicks to the face. He still has a good chin and takes shots and continues to come forward. He does get staggered now and was dropped and TKO’d by Yair Rodriguez in what is his 4th KO/TKO loss of his career. He really slowed down in round 3 against Siver and got beat up. Penn has 7 KO/TKOs himself, and it was how he won his last fight, but it’s hard to see that happening in 2018.
Penn is well known for being one of the fastest fighters to ever earn their black belt, hence the nickname The Prodigy. He doesn’t really possess any wrestling in terms of takedowns. He will try to use punches to get inside & grab the single collar clinch. He was able to briefly takedown Yair Rodriguez with a body lock takedown. In his most recent fight with Siver, when he dropped him he swarmed with some big ground & pound punches but was caught in an arm bar attempt. He was able to pass to side control but couldn’t free his arm and was basically neutralized on the ground. He showed good takedown defense on a single leg attempt against Siver, showing some signature Penn, jumping on one leg. In his fight with Frankie Edgar he was taken down easily, and for a while showed some decent defense. He was able to use a butterfly guard to stop ground & pound but couldn’t get to his feet. He has been training with Leo Santos who is one of the best BJJ fighters in MMA, so I’m sure he is focusing on that part of his game for this fight. Penn hasn’t earned a submission since he fought Kenny Florian in 2009. He has never been submitted in his career, and I actually feel on top if he can pass Ryan Halls guard is probably his best chance for victory. I see a lot of people saying Penn will have a striking advantage in this fight, and if it stays on the feet he will win. I disagree, I feel that Halls kicks will give BJ huge problems closing the distance, and he could keep him at bay and win a decision or potentially hurt him and finish him with the kicks easily. Penn always has the chance to land a big shot, but I think that his best chance to win is actually on the ground. He has had a good look for Hall in Santos, and he should try to either grind Hall against the cage or try to get on top keep top position and stay safe.
This is by far the worst fight on the card. I think BJ Penn’s last few fights were so sad that the UFC was forced to give him the least dangerous striker in the organization. Ryan Hall is a great submission artist, but he sucks at getting fights to the ground, other than diving for leg locks or hoping his opponent takes him down. We know what his game plan is. Run around the cage and throw a few kicks. Maybe he can get lucky and KO an old BJ with one of those kicks, but I doubt it. Those are just more for him to stay active on the feet and then he wants to dive on a leg and work for submissions. The last thing he wants to do is get into a real fight. The problem is that if he can dance around making his opponent chase him around the cage while he lands kicks, those kicks are usually more than the guy chasing can do. I think that is what happens here, but I think BJ can catch some of those kicks and then maybe kick Hall’s legs while he lays on his back begging for BJ to jump into his guard. BJ has never been submitted before and I think it could be smart to maybe try landing some GNP at the end of rounds to try and get the judges nod that way. I just don’t think Hall should be over a -400 favorite over anybody, and even a faded BJ can beat this guy in a boring fight.
On DraftKings, this is a fight to fade. I will say BJ is my preferred play because I am going to pick him to win, but I could see him scoring 40-points in a decision win because Hall avoids fighting at all costs. I think the only way Hall pays off his $9.4k price tag is with a 1st round finish, and if I was making 20 lineups I would fade that outcome and have Hall in 0. I would only want BJ in maybe 1 or 2 of those lineups though just because he is the cheapest fighter and he allows you to pay up for other favorites, but its real hard to trust him at all and Hall is a terrible style for DK points. If you are making 1-5 LUs, this is an easy fade. I am going to pick BJ Penn to win because I don’t see him getting submitted, and if Hall drops to his back I am hoping BJ Penn will stay active and at least kick his legs before the ref stands him up, because there is no way the judges can favor Hall in that situation. When I first got into fighting BJ Penn was my favorite fighter though, so this pick does come with bias and very little confidence, but I will take BJ to get his hand raised and hopefully ride off into the sunset.
Winner – BJ Penn via Split Decision
Petr Yan $9,300 vs Douglas Silva De Andrade $6,900
Petr Yan
Age: 25
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: 67”
Gym: Tiger Muay Thai
From: Russia
UFC Record: 2-0
Fight Matrix: 19
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W5
Betting Odds: -310
Petr Yan came into the UFC with a lot of fanfare and hasn’t disappointed with a 2-0 start with two great performances. He smashed Teruro Ishihara in round 1 by KO and had a great performance against a very tough Jin Soon Son. Yan is a well-rounded fighter and has great hands on the feet. He has a nasty straight right hand and will follow with a fade away overhand left. He will throw hard one-twos down the pipe. He will switch stances, and throw quick straight lefts, and he has great uppercuts in close. He does a great job of keeping a high guard, using head movement, staying right in the pocket and throwing big shots to the body & head. He does a great job of using feints and fakes in close to make fighters throw & counter. He has great body kicks, head kicks, leg kicks, oblique kicks, spinning kicks, he has it all. He will use his kicks in combination with his punches and keeps a very high volume of shots out there. He likes to attack with a spinning back fist to close the distance and he will follow it up with a big kick to the head or the body. He has 4 KO/TKOs, and has never been finished by shots, and has a great chin but is hittable.
Yan is extremely strong in the clinch. He has nasty short elbows, knees, and will disengage with great spinning elbows. He has nasty slams and trip takedowns. He will elevate his opponents and land belly to belly suplex’s, and nice hip tosses. He has good elbows in the clinch too and will damage opponents before trying to take them down. He likes to back his opponents up against the cage and land big slam double legs. On top he is very good, he likes to advance position to the mount and rain down punches until the ref stops the fight. He can be taken down by well-timed double legs, but he does a good job of scrambling, and either getting top position or the feet on the hips and standing up. He isn’t much of a submission threat with only 1 career submission. Yan has shown in his fights with Magomedov, that he is fearless and extremely hard to put away. He had tremendous cardio going 5 rounds multiple times so 3 round fights are not a problem. I feel Yan is going to have the striking advantage when moving forward, and he needs to counter the wide shots of Andrade with tighter, cleaner, straight punches. If he can get Andrade to defensively swing wild by pressuring him, I think he could knock him out.
Douglas Andrade
Age: 33
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: 68.5”
Gym: Corinthians MMA
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 3-2
Fight Matrix: 22
Last Fought: 10 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +255
Andrade likes to walk down opponents, throw hard oblique kicks, and outside leg kicks. He has good front & round kicks to the body. He will throw nice spinning back kicks to the body, and occasionally to the head. He likes to wait for his opponents to throw and counter with straight punch combinations. He has very fast hand speed and can make opponents gun shy to throw. He has a good, straight right-hand lead and will change it to an overhand right. He has a nasty lead uppercut. He has a nasty left hook, and when he gets fighters hurt he will swarm with big shots. He does a good job of controlling distance, sliding in & out. He has good fakes & feints and is very explosive when he decides to close the distance. He is very dangerous in close range with elbows, he has devastating spinning elbows & back fists. He tends to close the distance with just one strike combinations, and they can be wide. Fighters who throw nice, tight, straight punches like Rob Font, will be able to counter him if they can find his timing. He doesn’t do as well moving backwards and will throw much less. He has huge power, and when he lands opponents feel it. He has 19 KO/TKOs and has never been finished by strikes.
Andrade is not a grappler and will rarely attempt takedowns. He was able to time a suplex from the clinch late in round 1 to seal the round. He also did the same thing, landing a single against Rob Font, and it seems to be a point scoring strategy of his. He is strong in the clinch, he will throw nasty knees to the head, and will attack off the break with dangerous spins. When he is forced to strike moving backwards, he will move to the cage, and get wild with his striking, making him easier to take down. When he is in control and moving forward he is very hard to take down. He has a heavy sprawl and does a great job of seeing the attempt coming & moving out of the way or shucking it off with under hooks. He is not a submission threat with just one career submission and has only been submitted one time after getting pinged up by Rob Font. He has a phenomenal record of 25-2 and will have a lot of confidence coming into this match. He has finished 20 of his 25 fights, and I don’t expect this fight to go to decision. Douglas Andrade has got to go first in this match and set his punches up with fakes & feints if he wants to win.
I think this is a good matchup for Yan. Aside from power, I think Yan is better everywhere in this fight. I think the only path to victory for Andrade is KO, or else he has to drop Yan a few times and maybe win a decision that way. However, the pace Yan sets is going to be very hard to beat unless Andrade can knock him out. If this fight goes to the ground I think it will be Yan going for takedowns, but I do see it playing out on the feet. I don’t see Yan getting a finish here, but I think he gets an impressive win and shows that he is a future title contender. I said the KO is my only real worry with Andrade but his ITD line is +775 so Vegas doesn’t think I need to worry much.
On DraftKings, Petr Yan is the preferred play and I think he can get 100-points in a decision win with the pace he sets and the number of combos he likes to throw. I think he is going to be much faster and he could even finish this fight in any round. I think if you are making 3-5 lineups then Andrade is a good fade here, but I would want at least 1 or 2 Yan lineups. He won’t be low owned, but with Cyborg and Jones being priced right below him I think he will be lower owned than he should be. I am going to go overweight to Yan and get him in more than 25% of my lineups. I will take a few shots on Andrade with 150 lineups, but I will most likely be underweight to the 10% or so ownership I would project him to get.
Winner – Petr Yan via Unanimous Decision
Cat Zingano $8,500 vs Megan Anderson $7,700
Cat Zingano
Age: 36
Height: 5’6
Weight: 145 (Debut)
Reach: 70”
Gym: Studio 540
From: Colorado
UFC Record: 3-3
Fight Matrix: 4 (135)
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -150
Cat Zingano is looking to make it two in a row in what is a good stylistic matchup for her. Zingano is an extremely strong & physical wrestler and is probably the strongest fighter in the BW division. Zingano’s striking is not great, but she is very aggressive & is strong willed. She throws heavy leg kicks, and hard body kicks. She uses a lot of side to side movement & stance switching when she fights, & to me it’s a lot of wasted movement. She doesn’t set things up off her stance switches, which makes her footwork choppy and her easier to hit. She doesn’t have good hands, and she throws a lot of wide looping shots. She can get caught coming in & she can get countered with straighter punches. She has 4 KO/TKOs & never been finished by strikes in MMA.
Zingano is a strong wrestler, and probably the most physically strong 135er of all time. She has strong double & single leg takedowns, but only seems to like to shoot when opponent’s backs are against the cage. In space she prefers to try and clinch up, where she can bully her opponents. She will land easy body lock takedowns, head & arm throws & belly to belly suplexes. She also possesses nasty elbows & knees in the clinch and is vicious in her attempt to finish the fight. On top she is very strong, she has heavy G&P, showing that by finishing Amanda Nunes with it. She does seem to get tired when opponents defend a couple takedown attempts, and I feel that if she can’t get them in round 1 she could be in trouble. Zingano has an iron will, and will never say die in there, she will battle until the bitter end. Zingano has 3 submissions in her career and has been submitted just one time by Ronda Rousey. Zingano knows what she needs to do here. She needs to use smart movement & or forward pressure to back Anderson up & take her down or time it when Anderson gets too aggressive. If Zingano can get a takedown early in rounds I see her being able to keep Anderson down.
Megan Anderson
Age: 28
Height: 6’0
Weight: 145
Reach: 72”
Gym: Glory MMA & Fitness
From: Australia
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 6
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +130
Anderson is a heavy-handed striker with good forward pressure. She has a good jab & strong straight right hand. Her right hand is very accurate & powerful. She has a nasty overhand left. In close range she will unload with straight punch & hook combinations, with fast hand speed. She will mix in head kicks at the end of her combinations. When she gets fighters backed against the cage, that’s when she’s at her best and can really batter fighters. She will use spinning back fists into straight punches. She does a good job of doubling and tripling up with a left or right hook when fighters try to circle their back off the cage. She has nasty step in knees to the body & head along with great elbows when she gets fighters against the cage. On the feet she is a dangerous fighter and will finish opponents when she has them hurt. She will throw a ton of volume, and not let up until the fight is over. She has finished her last 4 wins via KO/TKO. She has never been finished by strikes, and I feel she will be very hard to knock out as she is a huge woman.
Anderson is not a great grappler. She stands very tall, and it makes it easy for fighters to duck under and get in on her legs or clinch her up. She is very strong and is able to defend initial takedowns with heavy hips. She gets taken down more by being too aggressive, while closing the distance with knees or punches. She did show some decent bottom work against Holly Holm. She was able to use her legs to off balance Holm and attack with a leg lock in round 1 and her long reach makes it harder for fighters to pass her guard. She seems green in certain facets on the ground. She was holding onto a guillotine in side control, and allowing Holm to pass to mount, & get dominant positions. She didn’t seem to have much experience fighting off her back. She was submitted by Cindy Dandois as well, who is another grappler. Anderson needs to stay off her back in this fight. If she can keep this fight standing, she definitely will have an advantage with the standup over Zingano. If she is put on her back, or put on the cage she cannot stay there, she has to get back to her feet or circle off the cage. I do feel she is someone who has the intangibles to improve rapidly along with the build and athleticism. She needs to dig under hooks on the takedown attempts, and make Zingano pay when they are at range. Anderson will know what Zingano wants to do in this fight, and that’s wrestle. Against Holly Holm I feel she thought she was going to get a striking fight and was surprised. If Anderson can push Cat backwards get her towards the cage and let go with her combinations, she can hurt Zingano and even finish her.
This is a pretty clear grappler vs striker match. If Cat can get the fight to the ground consistently then she can win a decision or even lock up a submission. If she can’t get the fight to the ground, she is probably going to lose a striking battle and maybe even get TKO’d. Whoever can control where this fight takes place will win the fight. Megan Anderson does struggle with takedown defense, so if Cat can get her down in rounds 1 and 2 then she should be able to survive round 3 and win a decision if she can’t get a submission win. Anderson is the bigger fighter though and I would imagine she has been working a lot on her takedown defense since her last fight. I was favoring Cat early in the week, but I have seen a lot of people picking her like this is an easy fight and I don’t agree with that. I have actually seen so many people picking her that it makes me want to go the opposite way, and now I am leaning towards Anderson getting the win. I could also see Cat winning 10-9 the first two rounds and then Megan taking over and winning a 10-8 on the feet in round 3 and we get a draw, which would kill both sides.
On DraftKings, I would prefer to fade this fight if I was making 3-5 lineups. I think both have chances of scoring high with finishes, but I think Cat is the only one who can score highly in a decision and that is with multiple takedowns each round, which I am not sure she can do. If I was making 20 lineups I would probably throw them both in 1-2 lineups at most, but I do expect Cat to be much higher owned so that makes me want to say Anderson is my preferred play. I am mostly just fading the twitter public with this pick and I am going to lean with the bigger fighter being able to keep this fight on the feet more than it’s on the ground and pulling out a win on the judges’ scorecards or a late TKO.
Winner – Megan Anderson via Unanimous Decision
Walt Harris $8,600 vs Andrei Arlovski $7,600
Walt Harris
Age: 35
Height: 6’5
Weight: 252
Reach: 81”
Gym: Spartan Fitness
From: Alabama
UFC Record: 6-5
Fight Matrix: 81
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -165
Walt Harris has always been a prospect with a lot of potential, and he feels he’s coming into his own. He has gotten back to back KOs although one was a loss via DQ. Harris is a great athlete, who packs huge power. Harris has a good one-two, and his right hand is powerful. He will throw a decent jab. He will throw a jab right hook as well, and an overhand right lead. He has good hand speed, and in close range will let go with hook combinations. He likes to throw check left hooks. He has good inside leg kicks, and hard body kicks. He will go to the head with kicks as well. He will throw front kicks to the body. He likes to switch stances, to cut off the cage, and he is always going forward controlling the center. He is the better athlete in this matchup and is going to be the faster fighter in there. He can sometimes not bring his hands back up after he throws punches in the pocket and can get hit with clean counter punches. He needs to be defensively sound in this match against a wily veteran such as Arlovski. When Harris lands he is a finisher and will close the show. He has finished all 11 of his wins by KO/TKO. He is 4-3 in his second run with the UFC, but he has 5 knockouts in 7 fights since he’s returned. He has been TKOd twice in his career.
Harris has been rounding out his game and improved his grappling in his second UFC go around. He landed a nice single leg takedown against Mark Godbeer and moved right into mount. That is the only takedown he has landed in his entire UFC career, and he has just attempted 3. He has good knees to the head in the clinch and attacked with a front choke against Shamil Abdurakhimov. He has great ground & pound especially when he can hurt an opponent. He lands huge elbows & punches and is relentless with the barrage. He has improved his takedown defense and has not been taken down by anyone except Fabricio Werdum on 24 hours’ notice in his last 7 fights. Harris was taken down by a single leg very easily and dominated on the mat before being submitted very quickly. He is hard to hold down and does a good job of bellying down & standing up, but it does give opponents like Werdum the opportunity to take the back. I feel even if Arlovski can take him down he won’t be able to hold him down, and I doubt we see Harris shooting takedowns much in this match unless he is losing the striking. Harris has good cardio and can go all three rounds. Harris has never gotten a submission in his career and only been submitted one time. Harris needs to use in & out movement to land and exit. He is going to be the much quicker fighter IMO with his footwork and hand speed, and if he can land clean he can knock out anyone.
Andrei Arlovski
Age: 39
Height: 6’4
Weight: 248
Reach: 77”
Gym: ATT
From: Belarus
UFC Record: 16-11
Fight Matrix: 28
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +145
Arlovski had a lackluster performance in his last match, after a bit of a revival, and has now once again lost two in a row. He is taking these fights back to back which makes me question if he is just taking these matches to earn some money. Arlovski has a nice jab, a good overhand & straight right. He likes to throw check left hooks when fighters are in the pocket and catch them exiting. Arlovski does a good job of attacking the body with hooks & punches and then going back up top to the head. He has hard inside leg kicks and will throw front kicks to the legs. He can throw the leg kicks without setting them up and get them caught and end up on his back. He has good uppercuts in close range and will throw spinning back fists that are dangerous. He will throw a nice double jab overhand right, and really puts a lot into the right hand. He isn’t as fast as he used to be with his hand speed, and Abdurakhimov was able to pot shot him from the outside a bit and clinch him up in close. Arlovski has shown better movement & angling than previously in his career and has taken more of a defensive approach than wildly attacking like early in his career. He has shown that he still has a decent chin even though he has been finished a ton of times, taking some big shots against Tuivasa. He still has been finished by KO/TKO 8 times and it’s pretty remarkable how he still has his durability.
Arlovski engages in grappling much more than earlier in his career. He likes to clinch up with opponents in the pocket instead of trading and has good trip takedowns and clinch control against the cage. He was able to get double legs against Struve, but that’s not normally part of his arsenal. His trip takedowns are his best takedowns, but on top he isn’t very good. He doesn’t have great top control, and I would be very surprised if he could control Harris on the ground. Arlovski can be taken down himself, but overall his takedown defense is solid. He isn’t a big submission threat with only 3 in his career, and none since 2005. He has only been submitted one time by one of the best HW grapplers ever in Josh Barnett. For Arlovski to win this fight he needs to come in good form, try to counter Harris, pot shot him, clinch with him and slow down the pace of the fight. If he can get his jab landing, control distance and use angles, he could frustrate Harris in route to a decision or enough to cause Walt to make a mistake where he can take him out.
I think this fight will take place on the feet for however long it lasts. I don’t see either fighter going for takedowns unless they are hurt on the feet and try to recover with a takedown attempt. Arlovski has gone for more takedowns in his recent fights, so if it does hit the mat it is likely going to be from him shooting for the takedown, but I expect him to look to stand and be the more technical fighter. With HW fighters the KO is always a possibility and it only takes 1 punch a lot of the time. I think if there is a KO in this fight it will be Harris that gets his hand raised. He is the much more powerful striker between the two and he should be quicker and more athletic as well. All 11 of his wins are via KO and I think that is the most likely outcome here and he is +100 ITD. Arlovski could get a KO as well but he hasn’t knocked anybody out in over 3 years and he seems fine with point fighting lately. If he can drag this fight out for 15-minutes I think he is live for the upset, but I am picking Walt to knock him out at some point along the way.
On DraftKings, my preferred play is Walt Harris. If he can get a knockout in round 1 then he will almost surely end up on the $50k lineup at his $8.6k salary. Even if it is a round 2 KO he has a good chance of being on the optimal lineup. If it gets passed round 2 then I think it will be tough for him to reach value, and it also might be Andrei winning the fight if it hits round 3. If Andrei does win I don’t think he scores highly unless he can get a KO himself. Even at his $7.6k salary I don’t see him getting 10x in a decision win even if its 30-27. I see him wanting to keep this fight on the outside and pick his spots and I don’t see this fight taking place at a high enough pace for him to score much more than 10x, so I will likely be underweight to him for that reason. I don’t see him getting a KO and his ITD line is +435 so neither does Vegas. If I was making 3-5, or even 10 lineups, I would fade Arlovski here and look for underdogs elsewhere. I would want some Harris though, even with just 3 lineups. I would want him in at least 1 lineup if that were the case and I see me having over 30% of him in my 150 lineups. I think he is one of the best mid-range picks for the potential knockout and that is what I see happening in this fight. I will have some Arlovski too with 150 lineups, but I won’t go over 15% and I may even stay under 10%. I expect him to have decent ownership (~18% or so) as a heavyweight underdog, so I will be underweight to him.
Winner – Walt Harris via 1st round (T)KO
Chad Mendes $8,700 vs Alex Volkanovski $7,500
Chad Mendes
Age: 31
Height: 5’6
Weight: 145
Reach: 66”
Gym: Team Alpha Male
From: California
UFC Record: 9-4
Fight Matrix: 7
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -160
This is an epic fight. Chad Mendes is arguably a top 5 FW of all time and returned with a bang with a quick KO victory over Myles Jury after 2 years off. Alex Volkanovski is surging and has been dominating so far in his UFC tenure. He has won 14 consecutive fights and is 5-0 in the UFC. The winner of this fight will be right in line for a number 1 contender match. Chad Mendes is a super athlete, and extremely explosive. He has huge power in his hands, to go along with a plethora of knockouts in his UFC career. His overhand right is deadly, and he is always looking to counter with it. He has great accuracy with the counter right hand. He does a great job of throwing a straight right to overhand right combination. He has strong leg kicks and will really sit down on them. He has super-fast hand speed and closes distance very well. He holds his hands low, and as he gets tired he becomes more hittable. He doesn’t really set up his shots or have much variety, so as he slows he becomes less effective. He rarely if ever throws left hands, and almost exclusively uses the right hand & leg kicks. He did drop Jury with a left hook in his last match. Mendes has had a ton of success knocking out wrestlers. He has finished Elkins, Guida, and Lamas by KO. He has 8 KO/TKOs in his career & 5 first round UFC KOs. He has lost 3 fights via KO/TKO.
Mendes is an amazing wrestler, and a 2-time division one All American. He has great reactive shots and does an excellent job of ducking under and getting explosive singles & doubles. He can drive through, and once he gets in on the legs is extremely hard to stop from taking opponents down. He is very good at changing from a double to a body lock. On top he likes to stay in opponent’s guard & land short punches & elbows. He doesn’t like to pass much, and usually can keep opponents down & just stay busy enough in the guard. Against McGregor he tried to roll for a guillotine and allowed him to stand up. He does have a good guillotine, like all the Team Alpha Male fighters. He does a good job of scrambling & keeping opponents down. He will get the front head lock, and snap down his opponents. His takedown defense is incredible. He will limp leg out of singles and has very heavy hips. Mendes has never been taken down in his entire UFC/WEC career. Mendes is not a big submission threat with only two in his career. He has never been submitted himself. Mendes’s cardio has been his biggest issue during his career. He tends to slow down in fights, and fighters can capitalize late. To be fair in the two most glaring instances of this, Nik Lentz & Conor McGregor he was sick in the Lentz fight, and took the Conor match on short notice. This is an interesting fight due to the style clash. Both of these fighters have a heavy right hand & takedown ability. I think Mendes is going to have the advantage in the wrestling, especially early, but he cannot get tired against a fighter like Volkanovski. Mendes needs to use in & out movement & time counters with his straight & overhand right. He sometimes gets too impatient and will throw un set up leg kicks from the outside, but for this match he needs to be disciplined, and counter. If he can catch Volkanovski cold and finish him that’s great, but also if Volkanovski doesn’t like the counter ability of Mendes & tries to close the distance, then Chad can take him down. Mendes is also training at Team Alpha Male, and they just prepared Darren Elkins to fight Volkanovski so they are familiar with his style.
Alexander Volkanovski
Age: 30
Height: 5’6
Weight: 145
Reach: 71.5”
Gym: Freestyle Fighting Gym
From: Australia
UFC Record: 5-0
Fight Matrix: 10
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W15
Betting Odds: +140
Alexander Volkanovski is finally getting a major step up in competition. After 4 mediocre wins, he took a jump & fought the perennially tough Darren Elkins and won a dominant decision. Now he will be facing easily the stiffest test of his career. Volkanovski is a well-rounded fighter with a heavy grappling background as well. Volkanovski is a solid striker, but not very dynamic. He has a nice jab, and good leg kicks. He will jab to the body. He likes to throw a counter overhand right, as fighters close the distance. He will also use the overhand right as a lead to close the distance and get in the clinch. He was able to rock Elkins multiple times with his overhand right and drop him. He does a good job or sticking in the pocket and sliding in & out and returning with left hooks and overhand rights. He likes to throw body & head kicks with his lead leg. He keeps heavy pressure on opponents, always owning the cage & pushing opponents backwards. He does a good job of faking level changes to try to create openings for his strikes, and he sets his shots up better than Mendes. He will close the distance with a straight left right hook right uppercut combination. He doesn’t throw a lot in combination most of the fight and will mostly use one or two shots attacks. He likes to slide away from shots and return, and against an athletic freak who can close the distance like Mendes that may not work. He is powerful, but he doesn’t possess the one-shot power of Mendes. He has 10 KO/TKOs in 18 wins. He was TKO’d in his lone loss.
Volkanovski is a strong wrestler, and what he has used to earn the majority of his victories. He does a great job of using his striking to get inside, and he will duck under into the body lock clinch. He is very strong and can just bull fighters over when he gets his hands clasped around the back. He will shoot reactive double legs and does a good job of using it to push opponents against the cage if he can’t get the takedowns. He will dig double under hooks and does a great job of controlling opponents against the cage and banking control time. He is very strong in those positions and can lift and slam opponents when he gets his hands connected with his opponents against the cage. He is strong in the clinch with short punches & control. He will use a spinning elbow to disengage, and it’s an effective technique. On top he is very good. He does a great job of moving to half guard where he will posture up and land heavy G&P. He has great control and will put a lot of damage on opponents from top position. I feel he will have little to no chance of taking down Chad Mendes, and Mendes is the better wrestler here. Volkanovski was jumping on a lot of guillotines against Darren Elkins, even when he had him hurt which I thought was a bit of bad fight IQ, but he has a nice guillotine. Overall, he isn’t a big submission threat with only 3 career submissions. He has never been finished by submission, and I feel Volkanovski is a fighter that needs to be put to sleep to get him out of there. Volkanovski’s biggest advantage in this match is his cardio. He has great cardio and can push a hard pace for all three rounds. If Volkanovski can weather a storm early and take Mendes into the later rounds he will have a better chance getting his game going. I feel Volkanovski should pressure Mendes, but make Mendes go first. He should pressure him to draw out his shots and catch him closing the distance or in the pocket. I feel after round 1 he should start to try to control him against the cage and force him to defend wrestling shots more. If Volkanovski can get him tired going into round 3 he can put it on him in the last round and try to take him out.
I am super pumped for this fight and it is by far my favorite non-title fight on the card. Both guys are legit title contenders and I think this is a very interesting stylistic matchup with both guys being very well rounded. On the feet, Volkanovski is the much more active striker landing 6.09 sig strikes per minute compared to 2.76 from Mendes. Both guys have heavy power in their hands, but I think I would favor Mendes in the power department, but I would also say he has the worse chin of the two being (T)KO’d 3 times in his career. So, that makes me think if this fight stays standing that the edge goes to Volanovski, unless he gets knocked out. However, on the ground I would favor Mendes because I think he has some of the best wrestling in the sport and he averages 4.08 landed takedowns per 15-minutes at a 54% accuracy. He also has 100% takedown defense so far in his career, so it is hard to imagine Volkanovski outwrestling him. That wrestling from Mendes is why I am going to favor him to get the win here. I do think the line should be closer to even, but I think the right guy is favored and I do expect him to land takedowns, possibly every round.
On DraftKings, Mendes is my preferred play, but I like this fight a lot and I will looking to go overweight on both guys. I think whoever does win should score over 10x their salary and that could put them on the optimal lineup. I think it will be much easier for Volkan to get the 10x in a win, and I would be shocked if he didn’t 10x if he got his hand raised. Mendes at $8.7k will be tougher to hit that 10x because I don’t think he can take Volkan down at will, but I think he can get his usual 4 or so takedowns throughout the fight and he has scored at least 86 points in all his wins. He has also gone over 100-points five separate times, so he does have a solid ceiling as well. If I was making 10 lineups for this card I would think that Mendes makes 3-4 of them and then I would also have 2-3 with Volkanovski. If you want to go the opposite way I think that is fine as well and if Volkan wins I would expect him to be on the $50k lineup. This is a big fight for the division and I expect a fun fight and I am excited to see who comes out on top.
Winner – Chad Mendes via Unanimous Decision
Ilir Latifi $8,900 vs Corey Anderson $7,300
Ilir Latifi
Age: 35
Height: 5’8
Weight: 205
Reach: 75”
Gym: Allstars Training Centre
From: Sweden
UFC Record: 7-3
Fight Matrix:
Last Fought: 10 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -145
This is an awesome fight. Both fighters are peaking and looking the best they have ever been. Corey Anderson dominated Glover Teixeira and looks to be turning the corner after back to back losses. Ilir Latifi has won 5 of his last 6 fights and had a nasty first round finish of OSP in his last match. This is a battle of two of the best wrestlers in the division, and it will be interesting who’s grappling will be better in this matchup. Latifi has huge power, and Anderson has had chin issues in the past, so on the feet I feel Anderson is technically better, but Latifi always has one shot that can end or change the match. Ilir Latifi is an explosive wrestler with one punch knockout power. Latifi likes to stay light on his feet, bounce on his toes, move on the outside, and looks to explode into an overhand right or takedown attempt. He has a very powerful overhand right and can finish the fight with that shot. He has very quick hands and will let go with a counter left hook overhand right combo in the pocket and is accurate with counters. He does a great job of catching kicks & returning with punches. Latifi doesn’t throw many kicks, but he has powerful leg & body kicks when he throws them. He is very quick closing the distance with straight punches, and lands nice uppercuts in close. When he wants to, Latifi will just blitz forward, with punches into the clinch and really force a grappling match. Latifi is going to have a big reach disadvantage in this match, and he struggled with the reach of Pedro on the feet. He was very low output and allowed Pedro to control the center & walk him down on the feet. He got hit with a few kicks, & shots from the outside, but he did a decent job of walking Pedro into his power & takedowns. He has 5 KO/TKOs in his career and has been KO/TKO’d 3 times.
Latifi is a very strong wrestler, and one of the best grapplers in the division. He does a great job of using overhands to explode in & then will get into the body lock clinch. He does a great job of pushing and controlling opponents against the cage, while looking for singles & double legs. When he gets his hands clasped, opponents are most likely going for a ride. He has great slams on his singles, doubles, and can drive through on body locks. He will fake the overhand into a single leg entry where he does a great job of finishing. On top he has big ground & pound from guard and likes to move into half guard & side control where he can land heavy shots. He likes to attack with north south chokes, but he doesn’t have great control from that area and fighters are able to return to their feet against him. He does a good job of controlling an opponent’s wrist from half guard, and landing ground & pound when they can’t defend themselves. Daniel Cormier stated he is one of the strongest grapplers he has ever felt, and very difficult to take down. He got a nice standing guillotine against OSP and choked him unconscious. It was more due to hurting OSP before than being good in BJJ. He has 5 submissions, and never been submitted himself. Latifi will need to get takedowns or land a big bomb to win this fight. I feel he is going to be low output and let Corey dictate the pace on the feet. He needs to be more aggressive against Anderson, he can’t let Anderson walk him down with leg kicks and jabs, he needs to push the pace, close the distance, throw bombs inside and look for takedowns. Anderson has some of the best cardio in the division, and Latifi tends to slow down, so I see Latifi getting weaker & Anderson getting stronger as the rounds continue.
Corey Anderson
Age: 29
Height: 6’3
Weight: 205
Reach: 79”
Gym: Nick Catone MMA & Fitness
From: Illnois
UFC Record: 8-4
Fight Matrix:
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +125
Corey Anderson has looked phenomenal recently, and has the skill set to be a future champion. He just has one glaring weakness though and that is his chin. He has been rocked and finished many times, and if hit clean, Anderson doesn’t take punishment well. Anderson needs to be very careful in this fight and fight at his range. Distance control & composure are going to play a huge role if Anderson is to get the victory. Anderson has very good side to side & inside outside movement. He has a great jab to the body & head. He has a good straight right hand & overhand right. He has good head movement & will stay in the pocket slip and return with counters. He has nice check left hooks in close range. He has very good fakes & false starts. He will take level changes & land nasty uppercuts. He will throw good combinations such as overhand rights to left hooks, and left hooks to the body overhand right. He throws a ton of volume, and never lets his opponents rest or get comfortable. Anderson will throw nice leg & body kicks. He will throw jump knees when fighters try and take him down, and Bader knocked out Latifi in that way. Anderson doesn’t have big power and relies more on volume & wrestling. He has 4 KO/TKOs in his career. He has a major chin problem & has been KO/TKO’d 3 times & dropped multiple times by Shogun.
Anderson is a tremendous wrestler and has been absolutely dominating opponents in recent fights. He has landed 20 take downs in his last two UFC fights. Anderson does a great job of ducking under and getting double legs. His long arms allow him to lock his hands easier and get nice slams. He has a strong drive on his doubles, and if he can’t take opponents down he will drive them to the cage and work from there. He is very good in the clinch. He has good control and will land hard elbows and knees. He has good doubles & singles from that position as well. He does a great job of re shooting quickly if opponents deny the attempt and wearing them out. On top he is very strong, he does a great job of getting to half guard trapping an arm and throwing hard ground & pound. He forces fighters to give their backs where he has great control and will flatten opponents out to land shots. He is great in the scrambles and will usually win & stay on top. He is extremely hard to hold down & does a good job of creating scrambles and wrestling positions. His cardio is elite, and he definitely will be the better conditioned athlete in this fight. Anderson needs to fight long, control distance, land his jab, overhand right and leg & body kicks. If Latifi blitz’s in, he needs to make him pay in close with counters or takedowns & circle away safely. If Anderson can get takedowns I see him winning the fight.
This is another fight I have gone back and forth on this week. I think Anderson is the better all-around fighter, and I do think he can land takedowns in this fight even though Latifi has 100% takedown defense in his UFC career. I also think Anderson will be the better striker and will be the one dictating the pace of this fight. However, Latifi is very short and powerful so it will be difficult to get those takedowns consistently, and if it stays standing then there is a good chance Latifi connects at some point and knocks Anderson out. Both guys have actually been (T)KO’d 3 times in their careers but you can just tell by them getting hit that Anderson has the much weaker chin, and you can tell by just looking at them that Latifi has more power. If there is a finish in this fight I would expect it to be a KO win from Latifi. If Latifi can’t get that KO, then I think Anderson wins.
On DraftKings, this is one of the better fights to target because I think the winner likely gets over 10x their salary and that should help put them on the $50k lineup. If Anderson wins I think he would surely score over 73 DK points and he even has 100-point potential in a decision with his wrestling ability. If Latifi wins it is probably going to be a knockout and that gives him a high 100+ point ceiling as well. At $8.9k he should get 10x or more even if the KO comes in round 2. Earlier in the week I was leaning towards Anderson to win with his wrestling, but the more I think about it I think Latifi being much shorter and very powerful, he will be able to stuff a lot of takedowns from Anderson and if he can do that and land 1 clean punch I think he ends the fight. I want this fight in more than half of my lineups and I will likely look to get over 25% of each guy. I will probably have more exposure to Anderson because we have to have underdogs and he fits into stars/scrubs lineups very well.
Winner – Ilir Latifi via 2nd round (T)KO
Michael Chiesa $9,000 vs Carlos Condit $7,200
Michael Chiesa
Age: 31
Height: 6’1
Weight: 170 (Debut)
Reach: 75.5”
Gym: Syndicate MMA
From: Nevada
UFC Record: 7-4
Fight Matrix: 33 (LW)
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -170
Michael Chiesa will be making the move up to 170 after a botched weight cut against Anthony Pettis. He has long been one of the biggest fighters at the 155 lb weight class so he should be able to compete physically with the majority of fighters at 170. He is going through a lawsuit right now with Conor McGregor, where it has been reported he is trying to acquire upwards of 15 million for the bus incident. You have to wonder if that is taking away from his focus in this camp. Chiesa is a long southpaw. He is a kicker and likes to stay on the outside until he closes the distance for takedowns. He will throw a decent jab straight right hand, but he tends to throw with full power making it easy to slip & counter him. He has good body & head kicks and will slip quick straight punches in after throwing them. Overall Chiesa is a flawed striker. He doesn’t move his head, and he tends to over extend himself where he can easily be countered. He also doesn’t set his kicks up well at times. He has a good chin and has relied on taking some punishment to get inside. He has never been finished by strikes, only by a cut against Joe Lauzon. He did get dropped and submitted in his last match against Anthony Pettis. He throws with power but isn’t a big KO threat with only two career TKOs.
Chiesa is a physical wrestler, and very strong. He has very long arms and is able to get the body lock & his hands connected from far out. He throws nice knees to the body in the clinch and will attack with elbows. He has a body lock trip & and single leg takedown. He has a crushing top game, putting heavy pressure on opponents. He likes to stand up in opponent’s guards & throw hard kicks, hard elbows or pass guard. He will transition to the mount, where he will throw shots until his opponents give their backs. He is a great back taker and can get them in the scrambles as well. He has a great rear naked choke. He is hard to take down, but fighters can win scrambles against him when he’s too aggressive, and he tends to give up his back as well. He is good on bottom and does a good job of regaining guard when he attacks. He has good triangles & will look for kimuras, either to submit or sweep. He got tired after round one against Pettis, and didn’t come in the greatest shape, but he usually has good cardio. Chiesa has 11 submissions including 8 rear naked chokes. He has been submitted three times in his career. Chiesa’s game plan for this fight is pretty obvious. He wants to smother Condit, get in the clinch & take him down. Condit has notoriously bad takedown defense, and this is a good matchup in that regard for Chiesa. Chiesa is not going to enjoy his usual size advantage in this fight, and he usually relies on that heavily to get his game going.
Carlos Condit
Age: 34
Height: 6’2
Weight: 170
Reach: 76”
Gym: Jackson-Wink MMA
From: New Mexico
UFC Record: 7-8
Fight Matrix: 41
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 1-4
Current Streak: L4
Betting Odds: +150
Carlos Condit is a legend in the game & not old at only 34, but he has a lot of wear and tear. The former UFC champion retired after his loss to Demian Maia, but returned a year & a half later, and has gone 0-2. He has lost 4 consecutive fights, & 5-6 overall. If Condit can’t get a win here it could signify the end is near. Condit is a slick striker, with solid knock out power. He has a good one-two and will throw nice leaping hooks that cover a lot of ground. He has a nice uppercut when he gets close & will attack the body with big shots. He throws a lot of leg kicks & oblique kicks and is good at mixing it up between his punches & kicks. He can start with a kick & then throw punches or even throw a kick in between punches which is very dangerous. He has good front kicks to the body & head and uses them to halt his opponent’s blitz’s. He has a nice jumping knee when he can get opponents backed up against the cage, and overall is just very creative with his striking. He has nice step in elbows. Condit hasn’t had a great performance since his war with Robbie Lawler, and it’s hard to say if that striker will ever come back. He has 15 KO/TKOs and has finished 28 of his 30 wins overall. He has never been finished by strikes, only being finished due to injury against Tyron Woodley, but he has been getting hurt more in recent fights. He was rocked by Demian Maia with a shot on the ground and hurt in his last match by Cowboy Oliveira on the ground as well.
Condit has always been a bad wrestler. He isn’t the most explosive athlete, and he doesn’t have a good sprawl. If opponents can get in on his hips they can usually get him to the ground pretty easily. He showed a bit better takedown defense in his fight vs Neil Magny early, but was still taken down many times. He will try to use a switch reversal to get on top or just get back up to his feet. He will attack with kimura’s when opponents take him down. When he gets taken down he is very active with his guard. He will try to land slashing elbows &, cut opponents up. He will use a high guard to attack with submissions & sweeps and when he gets on top he has nasty ground & pound. He will attack with leg locks as well. He will transition quickly and throw heavy elbows, get the back and has good rear naked chokes. He has 13 career submissions, but none since 2008. He has been submitted 4 times & twice in his last 3 fights. Condit needs to be aggressive in this fight whether on his back, or (especially) on the feet. He needs to walk down Chiesa and let his shots go without fear of being taken down. On his back he should look to land big elbows from his guard and create scrambles where he can stand up or get on top. If he can start to beat up Chiesa off his back and he is winning the standup, he could demoralize Chiesa. Condit has always had phenomenal cardio and throws a ton of volume.
This fight is a pretty clear read on what both guys want to do. Chiesa wants to get takedowns and work towards getting Condit’s back, so he can lock up a RNC. Condit wants to keep this fight standing. Whoever can keep the fight where they want it is going to win the fight. I think Condit is the much more dangerous fighter here though and I think his edge on the feet is bigger than Chiesa’s edge on the ground. Chiesa is also $9k on DraftKings so I want over 90-points from him if I am rostering him and with his style he doesn’t have 120-point upside, it’s pretty much capped at 10x with that salary. Chiesa has never scored over 100 DK points and the only real way for him to get there with his style is by getting a 1st round finish. If Condit can keep this fight standing I think he easily wins a decision, but I think he probably finishes Chiesa if this is a striking fight. I see Condit landing a body kick/knee at some point in this fight and I think he gets a TKO from that. At his $7.2k salary, pretty much any win will put him over 10x and he does have 120-point potential with the pace he strikes at. I also think if Chiesa does get takedowns that Condit could pull off a submission from his back. He does have 13 submission wins on his career so even if it does hit the ground I don’t think it’s going to be easy for Chiesa to dominate, or even keep him there. I think he would need to lock up a submission pretty quickly similar to Maia, but I don’t think he is good enough at takedowns to get this fight down consistently.
On DraftKings, Condit is my preferred play and he is one of my favorite underdogs to target. He does have a 0-point floor because Chiesa won’t want to stand at all and will go for a takedown immediately, and if he gets it maybe he locks up a sub before Condit has a chance to do anything. However, if Condit stuffs that first takedown I think that will boost his confidence and I expect him to light Chiesa up on the feet. I think Chiesa is in play at $9k because he could go out there and score 95-100 points with a 1st round win, but it is hard to pick him with Jon Jones and Cyborg right above him. If I was making 10 or less lineups I would full fade Chiesa here. I think I would need 20 or more lineups before I considered rostering him, personally. With Condit, I would want him in 4 of those lineups and that is probably the % I will be looking at with my 150 LUs. I think 35-40% sounds like a good number of Condit lineups and at his price it allows us to pay up for those Jones and Cyborg prices. I expect Jones/Cyborg to be the most popular stack of the week, and Condit is my favorite way to get there. I do expect him to be highly owned by I am hoping Siyar is higher owned because I would rather get my leverage on Condit.
Winner – Carlos Condit via 3rd round (T)KO
Cris Cyborg $9,200 vs Amanda Nunes $7,000
Cris Cyborg
Age: 33
Height: 5’8
Weight: 145
Reach: 69”
Gym: Chute Boxe Long Beach
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 5-0
Fight Matrix: 1
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W20
Betting Odds: -250
This is an amazing fight. Cris Cyborg is a destroyer who comes in aggressively right from the start. She has a good jab, but she really is always looking to land that right hand. She does a good job of throwing the jab right hand then going to the body with punches & back up top. She stands right in the pocket and will unload with left & right hooks to the head & body and absorb return shots with no fear. She lands hard low leg kicks, and she has better head movement to work inside now. Cyborg is going to want to keep the pressure in this match, swarm, and push Nunes back to the cage and don’t let her get comfortable. Cyborg has shown in her fight with Muay Thai legend Jorina Baars that she will never quit. She took a hellacious beating early in that fight, being dropped by brutal knees and front kicks to the chin. She was able to recover every time and dominated the tail end of the fight proving you have to kill her to put her away. She obviously possesses crushing power, and most girls are not willing to absorb the shots Cyborg throws. Cyborg has 17 KO/TKOs in 20 wins including 13 of her last 15 wins by way of KO/TKO. She has never been finished with strikes and has a hell of a chin.
Cyborg is an underrated grappler, and she is nasty in the clinch. She has a strong double collar and she will throw opponents around and slam hard knees to the face. She will throw solid elbows as well. Fighters don’t like to be in boxing range against Cyborg, so they tend to try to get in the clinch, where Cyborg will get an over hook where she will get the collar tie, throw knees, frame & right hand to exit. She does a good job of digging a deep under hook to lift & turn her opponents where she can land punches, knees and big elbows. Cyborg doesn’t look for offensive takedowns much, but she is very good with takedown defense. She usually is much more physically stronger than her opponents, and she is able to deny a lot of attempts with physicality. When she does get taken down, she does a great job of exploding back up to her feet & is very hard to hold down. She has won BJJ tournaments in the past and is well versed on the ground. She did give up mount to Gina Carano, and I feel Nunes best game plan is to grapple in this match. Cyborg is not a submission threat having 0 in her career. She was submitted in her one loss via heel hook. Cyborg and Amanda have been talking a lot of shit coming into this match, and I feel Cyborg will be motivated to make a statement in this fight. I see her pushing a pace right off the bat and trying to show Amanda who’s boss. I think she will try to use her boxing combinations and head movement to get inside, push Amanda back and ping her with big shots to the body as well to slow her down. Cyborg has never had a heart issue or cardio issue, and Amanda has had both so pushing a pace and making this a war is where Cyborg will most likely thrive, and Amanda will not.
Amanda Nunes
Age: 30
Height: 5’7
Weight: 145 (UFC Debut)
Reach: 69”
Gym: ATT
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 9-1
Fight Matrix: 1 (135)
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W7
Betting Odds: +230
Amanda Nunes is attempting to become the first two division woman’s champion in UFC history. The BW champion will be moving up to FW for this challenge. We just recently saw former SW champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk move up to FW and attempt to win a second belt against a woman from a higher weight class in an unsuccessful bid. Nunes is a very good athlete, and she tends to rely on her athleticism, size & physicality as well. Nunes has a strong jab, and she throws it very stiff busting the faces of her opponents and forcing ugly shots from too far outside. She has a clubbing right hand, and huge power in this shot. She will throw the right hand straight down the pipe, and over the top very effectively. She doesn’t look for much else besides a one two and is very meat and potatoes with her striking. She has nasty low leg kicks, and a few kicks can damage the leg of her opponent. She has 11 KO/TKOs in her career and has been finished twice by TKO. Nunes needs to keep distance and keep this fight a technical boxing match in the center of the cage. If she can exploit Cyborg with tight punches in between her combinations, that’s her best chance to hurt and stun Cyborg.
Nunes is a very strong grappler as well, and it’s what she should try to use for this fight IMO. She has a good Muay Thai plum clinch and can land hard knees to the body & head. She has nice inside trips. Nunes is a judo brown belt and very physically strong in the clinch. She has good body lock takedowns as well. She doesn’t look for many doubles or single legs, and I feel those are the takedowns she should go for in this match, as she will be the physically smaller and weaker woman in this fight. I do feel Nunes can have success controlling Cyborg against the fence potentially like Holm, and if she can land shots there and actually do damage that’s a good way to take rounds as well. On top Nunes is nasty, she does a great job of getting positive and landing huge elbows to the body & head. She landed a nasty right hand from guard against Cat Zingano, and almost finished her with G&P. She is a black belt in BJJ and she does a great job of putting pressure on opponents until they give up the back and she gets the rear naked choke. Nunes should look to use Cyborgs aggressiveness against her early, land leg kicks, counters and angle. When she sees a safe time to close the distance and push Cyborg to the cage she should do it and control her there. If she can get on top of Cyborg and cement top position, I feel that’s her best chance to finish the fight.
This is the best woman’s fight of all-time in my opinion and I have said for years that Nunes has the best chance of beating Cyborg. I do think Cyborg is the best WMMA fighter on the planet and she should be favored over anybody, but I think Nunes is live in this spot and she could just as easily be considered the best WMMA fighter on the planet next week. Cyborg will be the bigger fighter here and she is going to look to pressure Nunes and make this fight a war. I do think Nunes is going to hit her harder than anybody else in MMA has, so that could possibly slow Cyborg down and if Nunes can keep control of the pace of this fight I think she can get a win. I also think she can mix in takedowns to help get that win, and a submission is what her partner Nina Ansaroff predicted, so I like the sound of that. If Nunes lets Cyborg push the pace, then I think Cyborg will end up finishing her at some point in the fight if Nunes can’t get her to respect her power. I don’t see Cyborg going for takedowns in this fight but if she hurts Nunes I think she will follow her to the ground and likely win with GNP. I think she has one of the highest ceilings on the card, but I think this line should be a bit closer than it is. I would still favor Cyborg in this fight, but I would have had her closer to -185. My final prediction in this fight is probably more for rooting interests, but I do think it is a very possible outcome.
On DraftKings, this is probably an all-in fight for me and I am going to say Nunes is my preferred play. If I was making just 1 lineup I think it would have Nunes. With multiple lineups I want to be closer to 50/50 but I think I might end up closer to 60/40 in favor of Nunes. Her and Condit are my favorite cheap plays and I want to be overweight on them both. I expect Cyborg to be the highest owned fighter on the card and if Nunes can win this fight then I would hope killing off those ~50% of Cyborg lineups would give me a live lineup or two for that $50k prize. But I will probably have this fight in almost all 150 of my lineups so I will have my fair share of Cyborg lineups as well. If you are making 20 or less lineups I think this fight should be in 100% of them and however you want to divide it up would be ok with me, as long as you have exposure to both fighters. Even if it is 90% and just a 10% hedge lineup, I think this is the best fight on the card to target both fighters for GPPs.
Winner – Amanda Nunes via 2nd round submission
Jon Jones $9,100 vs Alexander Gustafsson $7,100
Jon Jones
Age: 31
Height: 6’4
Weight: 205
Reach: 83.5”
Gym: Jackson-Wink MMA
From: New York
UFC Record: 16-1-1
Fight Matrix: NR (Inactivity)
Last Fought: 1 Year 5 Months
Last Five: 4-0-1
Current Streak: 1NC
Betting Odds: -255
The rematch of one of the best title fights in UFC history is finally happening. Since then both Jon Jones & Alexander Gustafsson have not been very active for different reasons. Jon Jones has had problems outside the cage but has yet to find a problem he can’t solve in the octagon. He is a brilliantly creative striker, with world class grappling. Jon Jones is a great kicker and uses his reach fantastically. He throws leg & oblique kicks to the knees, and front kicks & teips to the body. The oblique kicks to the knees break the rhythm of his opponents, and hard to get their games going. Jones has a decent jab, a good overhand right and check left hook. His left hook is very effective. He prefers to land shorter combinations in exchanges rather than get in extended combinations. Jones always has his lead arm extended to keep range and is notorious for poking fighters in the eyes because of this. He likes to control one wrist and come over the top with elbows and is very good in close range as well. He will throw nasty spinning elbows, front elbows, and he possibly has the best elbows in the game. Jones has nasty head kicks from south paw with little to no tell and can get them up to the target quickly. He pelted Gustafson with many head kicks in their first match and Gustafson was able to eat them. He finished Daniel Cormier with a head kick in his last match, and that is a shot I see him looking for early & often in this matchup. Jones has never been known as big power puncher, but he has 9 KO/TKOs on his record and has a hell of a chin never even being rocked in a fight I can remember. Jones needs to get inside early and make this a in close fight. He should throw the head kick and try to land elbows in close.
Jones is phenomenal in the clinch. He has nasty front elbows, and elbows over the top from the single collar clinch, and he breaks the clinch with a nasty spinning back elbow. He has nasty uppercuts in the clinch, and strong knees to the body & head. He wears fighters out in the clinch and has great cardio. He is an incredible MMA wrestler. Jones likes to back opponents to the fence, where he has a strong double leg takedown. He has good inside trips in the clinch, and strong body locks. He has a good single leg as well and does a good job of chaining his takedowns together until he can find the takedown. On top, Jones has some of the best G&P in MMA history. He has vicious elbows, he can smash opponents with elbows even from the full guard. He likes to get the crucifix and throw nasty elbows, and he also has a great mount. He has been doing a lot of BJJ lately, and he has rounded out that part of his game as well. He has a nasty guillotine choke, & he can get it from standing position such as vs Lyoto Machida. He has an iron will and let Belfort break his arm before coming back to defeat him. He took the fight in the championship rounds against Gustafson the first time, and he has the heart of a champion. Jon Jones needs to close the distance cut Gustafson off, and force him into a close-range fight. He needs to attack with elbows over the top and front elbows along with a lot of head kicks. He should use his front kicks to the body to push Gustafson to the cage, and then cut him off with body & head kicks and beat him up there. In the center of the cage at boxing range where Gustafson can strike in combination & move, is exactly where Jones does not want to be. If he can take him down & cement top position, I can see him hurting Gustafson with ground & pound as well, but he had no success taking and holding down Gus in the first fight, so I feel the first game plan is easier to implement.
Alexander Gustafsson
Age: 31
Height: 6’4
Weight: 205
Reach: 79”
Gym: Allstars Training Centre
From: Sweden
UFC Record: 10-4
Fight Matrix: NR (Inactivity)
Last Fought: 1 Year 7 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +235
Alexander Gustafsson is extremely confident coming into this fight and saying it’s the fight he has been preparing his whole life for. I see both fighters being willing to die in there and give it their absolute all. Gustafsson has been dealing with a lot of injuries and has actually had a longer lay off than Jon Jones has. Gustafsson has tremendous footwork & lateral movement, and probably the best movement in the division. He is always light on his feet, circling and giving his opponents a moving target. He never allows fighters to back him against the cage and does a great job of forcing opponents to fight in the center of the octagon. He has great feints & fakes and will land his jab and angle off. He will double & triple up on the jab & sit down on it with power rocking opponents with it. He has a great jab to the body, and he landed quite a few of them against Jones. He has a nasty one-two and was doing a tremendous job of angling off the right hand against Glover Teixeira. He was constantly switching stances and uses jabs from both stances, and nasty uppercuts. He will throw a check left hook to a straight right hand and even right elbow combination. His hand speed is superb, and he will unload with 3-4 punch combinations in the pocket angle off, slip & return with big shots opponents don’t see coming. He has nasty inside leg kicks, and great front kicks to the body. Gustafsson needs to keep the fight in the center use his boxing angles, land & move and don’t let Jon get settled. He has nasty elbows, he will throw spinning back elbows into straight right hands to an uppercut combination. He was ducking his head a lot when circling away against Teixeira and I believe that puts him in danger of getting head kicked if Jones can time it. Gustafsson in the center at boxing range will be the more effective fighter. His hand speed and footwork are probably the best in the division, and he needs to use that in this match. Gustafson has 11 KO/TKOs, and packs good power in his shots. He has an amazing chin proving that over his career only being finished one time by Anthony Johnson.
Gustafsson is good in the clinch as well. He likes to punch himself into the double collar toe where he will land hard knees & elbows. He has nice uppercuts in the clinch as well. Gustafsson has proven he is an elite wrestler. He was able take Jon Jones down twice and Daniel Cormier down twice. He has a great reactive double leg, and he does a great job of suddenly halting his lateral movement and quickly ducking under. He does a great job of using his left hook to stand his opponents up & then duck under and get the takedown. He is extremely hard to take down, he has very heavy hips, and gets very wide and even if his opponents do get him down he will slide to the fence and stand back up. He will look for under hooks and does a great job of framing away. On top he has nasty elbows, and solid control. He doesn’t attack with submissions much, and hardly ever is put on his back long enough to see how his BJJ is. He only has 3 submissions and been submitted one time by Phil Davis. He is riding a high and had a video game like knock out of Glover Teixeira in his last match. His cardio looked incredible against Glover, and he didn’t tire in the championship rounds like vs Jones. Gustafson needs to have the cardio to move all 5 rounds, throw uppercuts, left hook combinations and move & angle keeping this fight in the center. If he can land the better boxing combinations, mix in some takedowns and avoid extended exchanges in close range and getting head kicked he could win this fight.
I don’t think it is any secret that I think Jon Jones is the greatest fighter on the planet and the best fighter we have ever seen. If it was, then the secret is out now. I do think DC and Gus are the clear next best though and I think if anyone has a chance of beating Jones that Gus has the best shot. Their first fight was one of the greatest fights of all-time because it was so close when nobody was expecting Gus to have a shot. I thought Jones won that fight but I was worried going into the score cards because I wouldn’t have called 48-47 Gus a robbery. The first round was a clear 10-9 Gus but rounds 2 and 3 were very close. And then rounds 4 and 5 were clear 10-9 to Bones. In that fight, Bones would have outscored Gus by 12 DK points without the win bonus because he landed 24 more sig strikes than Gus. Bones was also in the prime of his partying career during that fight and now he claims to have his life together and is focused on being the best fighter in the world. I expect this fight to be much clearer if it goes to the judges, but I think Bones gets a finish this time and we won’t have to argue about scores.
On DraftKings, Jon ‘Bones’ Jones is one of my favorite plays on the card and he is a lock for my cash lineup. I think this fight is a pretty clear stack in cash fight, and we could even dub stack the two title fights, but the one thing that is for sure is that Jones will make my cash LU. I also want to have him as my highest owned fighter to be sure I have leverage over the field. Both fighters should be very popular and will probably be in 90% of the total lineups, but I will likely be closer to 75/25% with my exposures in GPPS. Any win from Gus would put him over 10x his salary and probably close to, if not over 100 points. I just don’t think he gets that win and I think Jones scores between 100-110 in a win whether it is a finish or a decision win. At $9.1k, I will take that for my most owned fighter and I think he does end up on the $50k lineup. We might have a ton of ties for 1st place this week, but I think he is on the 1st place lineup and he scored 102-points in their first fight. I expect Jones to show everyone once again that he is the baddest man on the planet and I hope he doesn’t do anything to ruin his career and miss any more time than he already has.
Winner – Jon Jones via 4th round (T)KO
Thanks again for purchasing this article and be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building and I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks and predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice and fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley, and if you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.