BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC 231 Location – Toronto, Canada
Thanks for purchasing my UFC 231 DraftKings breakdown. As always, my goal here is not to give you my personal lineups, but help you learn to build better lineups yourself, as well as give you my personal picks and strategies for each fight card. Every week I will do my best to break down every fight on the card from a fight standpoint, as well as a DraftKings standpoint. I will also give my pick prediction for each fight along with the method of victory. However, just because I am picking a fighter to win may not mean they are the fighter I would prefer to roster on DraftKings, so be sure to read through my analysis to see where my head is at in my own lineup constructions. Secondly, if there is anything you think I can add to these be sure to message me on twitter at @BigMarley3 and I will take it into consideration.
This weekend, we have a 12-fight card in Toronto, Canada. We are back to having PPV sized contests on DraftKings this week and there are some solid GPPs to chase this week. The main GPP is a $10 entry with $25,000 to 1st place. Those are always my favorite contests to chase so I will be taking some shots at that. Other than that, I will stick to my 3-entry max & single entry GPPs. I will also be picking up H2Hs throughout the week and I will get a good amount of play in cash games.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, lets break down these UFC 231 fights and hopefully I can help you build some winning lineups:
Aleksandar Rakic $9,500 vs Devin Clark $6,700
Aleksandar Rakic
Age: 26
Height: 6’5
Weight: 205
Reach: 78”
Gym: Team Rakic
From: Austria
UFC Record: 2-0
Fight Matrix: 28
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W10
Betting Odds: -650
Aleksandar Rakic is a gigantic LHW, he is 6’5 with a 78” reach. He will have a big size advantage on the former 185 lber Devin Clark. Rakic has nice long punches, a good jab, and left hook with his front hand. He has a nice lead uppercut straight right-hand combination. He closes a lot of distance with his punch combinations and is very fast for someone his size. He has strong hooks and is quick in the pocket with punches. He has nasty inside & outside leg kicks and tenderized the front leg of Justin Ledet. He does a great job of landing hard hooks and uppercuts off the break. He switches stances seamlessly and can strike well from both stances. He will throw spinning heel kicks to the head, and body. He is super athletic, explosive, and improving rapidly. If he continues at this trajectory he is going to be a problem for the entire division in the future. He is also a cerebral fighter and comes into fights with great game plans. He is very big and powerful for the division and has 7 KO/TKOs in 10 wins. He has a good chin and has never been finished with strikes.
He is improving rapidly as a grappler. He is big and long for the division and uses it to his advantage in wrestling exchanges. He does a great job of sprawling, digging under hooks and getting in top position. He has nice single leg takedowns, along with body lock trips. On top he has very heavy pressure, along with hard elbows and short punches. He does a great job of staying on top, staying busy, and winning a round. He will rarely look for submissions and has only one in his career. He has been taken down a couple times in his UFC career by Francimar Barroso, but he showed a good get up game. He should know Clark’s path to victory in this match is through wrestling and has trained his takedown defense accordingly. He has tremendous cardio and can melt opponents with pressure & pace. He is riding a 10-fight winning streak since being submitted in his debut and should have a lot of confidence coming into this matchup. Rakic should look to pressure Clark in this fight with punching combinations and leg kicks. If he can cut the cage off, put pressure on Clark to think, he could get him to panic and shoot a sloppy takedown where Rakic can take advantage.
Devin Clark
Age: 30
Height: 6’0
Weight: 205
Reach: 75”
Gym: Jackson-Wink MMA
From: South Dakota
UFC Record: 3-2
Fight Matrix: 62
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +475
Devin Clark is coming off an upset win over Mike Rodriguez and will be looking to take all of Rakic’s momentum as well. Clark has felt what the top 5 of the division feels like in his loss to Jan Blachowicz. Clark is very explosive, and a good athlete. He has a decent jab, and an ok left hook. He will throw looping overhand rights from the outside and uses his punches to close the distance and crash into the clinch. He likes to use a long stance with his lead hand down, and right hand always cocked to throw. He will throw spinning back kicks and try to catch fighters in close range. He likes to use superman punches and shots to close the distance. He doesn’t like striking at range. He is light on his feet, and it’s hard to gauge when he’s going to come in with punches or a takedown attempt. He has strong body & head kicks. He will also throw hard leg kicks. Overall, he isn’t a great striker, he relies mostly on speed and athleticism. He doesn’t have many setups to his shots, and just closes the distance with one punch or kick at a time. He is going to be at a big disadvantage on the feet in terms of technique and sharpness and needs to close the distance and get this fight to the ground. He is a big powerful fighter with 3 KO/TKOs and has only been finished once by strikes.
Devin Clark is a former college wrestler, and that is his bread & butter in MMA. He is explosive closing the distance, and very strong when he gets ahold of opponents. He does a great job of closing the distance with an overhand ducking under and getting double legs. He is very strong in the clinch and will get body locks and easy takedowns. On top he is very heavy, and he likes to blanket opponents with pressure and ground & pound. He can get too wild trying to get into the clinch, or the takedown, and give his back. He got choked out by Jan Blachowicz due to being too hasty in the clinch. He doesn’t do a good job of digging under hooks when fighters push him to the cage, and he can be controlled in that position. He has great cardio and can wrestle hard for all three rounds. Clark needs to use punches to close the distance, get Rakic to the cage and take him down. Rakic is a tall fighter, so he may be easier to get in on double legs and land body locks on.
This is a tough fight for Devin Clark. At first, I was thinking as the cheapest fighter on the card that Clark may be worth a look in GPPs with his wrestling ability. But the more I look into it the harder time I have seeing him get a win. I think the only legit path to victory for Clark is to get takedowns and keep top control on the mat. If he can get 7 takedowns in this fight like he did in his last fight, then he could get a decision win here. I just think it is going to be too hard to get that many takedowns on Rakic who looked great in the grappling department in his last fight. He has an 86% takedowns defense and he is going to be the bigger guy in this fight. If Clark can’t get takedowns, then Rakic is going to pick him apart on the feet and probably knock him out at some point. Rakic ITD line is -133 but with him being the most expensive fighter on the card at $9.5k I think we will need to rely on him finishing ITD to pay that salary off. He does land 5 sig strikes per minute which is pretty solid, but I don’t see him going for many takedowns in this fight, so we will need him to strike at a high rate like that in order to 10x+ that salary.
Overall, I think this is an OK fight to target on either side, but not a fight we have to force into lineups. My preferred play is Rakic because I do think he gets a finish at some point during this fight, I just don’t love paying that price for him. If Devin Clark can pull off an upset with a takedown heavy game plan, then he will score highly and likely end up on the winning lineup. I just have a hard time seeing him do that and I think the odds are about right for this fight. I think both guys will make my player pool if I am making 20+ lineups, but I wouldn’t have Devin in more than 1 or 2. I am ok with 25-30% Rakic but I don’t think we have to lock him into cash or GPP lineups if you like other spots.
Winner- Aleksander Rakic via 2nd round (T)KO
Chad Laprise $9,100 vs Dhiego Lima $7,100
Chad Laprise
Age: 32
Height: 5’10
Weight: 170
Reach: 71”
Gym: Adrenaline Training Centre
From: Canada
UFC Record: 6-3
Fight Matrix: 105
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -380
Chad Laprise has had good success since moving to 170 lbs. He is 3-1 and looking to bounce back after a loss to top 15 opponent Vincente Luque. Chad Laprise is a solid striker. He is mostly a boxer but will throw the occasional head or leg kick. He has good movement, good angles and sharp boxing. He has a nice jab and straight punches. He will time you coming in and land hard counters. He is much better when he has space, can use his unconventional movement and stay unpredictable with his shots. When he is getting pressured and on the back foot he is not as comfortable. He will not throw nearly as much when he is being pushed backwards and he can get hit with jabs and left hands. Ross Pearson ate up his leg in their fight. Laprise has a nasty overhand right and when he hurts you, he will go for the kill. He has a pretty nasty liver shot and good timing on his body shots. He is not the biggest WW and probably should be fighting at LW. He still packs power, finishing all 3 of his wins at WW by TKO. He has 7 KO/TKOs and has a solid chin but has been finished twice by strikes.
He is a competent grappler, he has a good body lock takedown, and good double legs. On top he has a decent top game, he has good control, and will advance to dominant position and finish the fight if given the opportunity. He has nice ground and pound from the mount and finished Galore Bofando with it. He has good takedown defense and is hard to control on the mat. I feel he is the better wrestler in this matchup, and if he wants to takedown Lima he can. He isn’t a submission threat with just 1 sub and has never been submitted. Laprise should look to back Lima against the fence and throw long boxing combinations. He is going to have the cleaner punching technique and the faster hand speed, and he will be able to land in close range.
Dhiego Lima
Age: 29
Height: 6’2
Weight: 170
Reach: 75”
Gym: ATT Atlanta
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 1-5
Fight Matrix: 117
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +315
Dhiego Lima is coming off a dominant loss at the hands of Yushin Okami and has lost back to back fights. Lima is 1-5 in UFC fights, and he hasn’t truly shown he deserves to fight at this level. Lima likes to use a lot of lateral movement and try to stay long throwing body kicks and counter right straights. He is kind of stiff on the feet especially with his punching and he can look like he is in quicksand a bit. He lets himself get backed up against the cage, and he has poor defense there. He does have solid kicks both to the body and the head. He isn’t super active on the feet and likes to take opponents down more now. He has taken a ton of damage over his career and has a questionable chin. He has been KO/TKO’d 4 times in his career.
Lima has tried to round out his game and mix in some wrestling in recent fights. He will shoot for double legs and will try to land trips in the clinch. On top he isn’t super active, but he is an opportunistic back taker, and has good control there, but not great finishing ability. He has poor takedown defense, and Yushin Okami was able to take him down with double legs at will in his last fight. He lets himself get backed to the fence and has his feet too close together making it easy to dump him. Off his back he isn’t very good. He is a brown belt in bjj and has a couple triangle choke victories, but he doesn’t get up off his back well and can get beat up. This is a tough matchup for him, because I feel he is out gunned on the feet and in the wrestling. His best path to victory in my opinion is to try to takedown Laprise and grind him out.
I think Laprise is the better fighter here and on the feet, I don’t even think it is close. Lima is the bigger guy of the two, but other than that I would say Laprise has the edge everywhere on the feet. He also has 7 (T)KO’s on his record and Lima has been (T)KO’d himself 4 times. I don’t see Laprise wanting to get this fight to the ground himself, but I think he is a decent enough grappler to keep this fight on the feet where he wants it. If that is the case I think he wins a clear decision or gets a knockout along the way. The way for Lima to win is by getting takedowns and trying to work for a submission or grind out a decision. He does land 2.22 takedowns per 15-minutes at a 66% accuracy, and he will be the bigger fighter here. So, I do see him being able to get a couple takedowns if he doesn’t get KO’d on the feet first, I just don’t see him getting a finish here and I think he will need to land more than 2-3 takedowns to get a decision win in Canada. For him to win with just 2-3 takedowns would mean he needs to keep top control for a while and I think Laprise will be able to get back to his feet. I don’t see Lima having the ability to chain wrestle, so I think this fight will mainly play out on the feet. Laprise wins via (T)KO is currently -120, so Vegas thinks it will play out on the feet and Laprise will finish it there. I think I favor Laprise to win a decision personally, but I never mind siding with Vegas on prop odds.
On DraftKings, this is a fight I won’t be targeting much. My preferred play is Laprise because of his -120 ITD line, but at his $9.1k price tag we are again relying on the striker to finish the fight when we are pretty sure they won’t be going for any takedown points. I think Laprise is a similar play to Rakic but $400 cheaper, I just would trust a 205 lb guy to get a KO more than I would a smaller 170 lb guy. I think they are both playable, but not my favorite targets of the week. I really don’t have much interest in Lima, but if he is going to be super low owned then I think a GPP dart or two is in play just in case he can get the fight to the ground constantly. If I am making 20 lineups, then I would guess Laprise makes 3-4 and Lima maybe makes it into 1. If I am just making 1-3 lineups, then I would probably try to avoid this fight altogether.
Winner- Chad Laprise via Unanimous Decision
Brad Katona $8,900 vs Matt Lopez $7,300
Brad Katona
Age: 26
Height: 5’6
Weight: 135
Reach: 64.5”
Gym: SBG Ireland
From: Canada
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 77
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W7
Betting Odds: -185
Brad Katona will be making his second UFC appearance after winning TUF. He trains out of SBG Ireland, and he will be trying to turn around the recent run of losses they have been on. Katona is a solid athlete, and well-rounded fighter. He has nice leg kicks, and a good lead left hook. He will use the lead left hook to set up punching combinations and will follow with a straight right hand or right hook. He has a good straight right hand to the body left hook combination. He does a good job of attacking the body with punches, to ultimately disguise his level changes and get takedowns. He has decent body kicks. He will explode in with lead left hooks and overhand rights, but he doesn’t throw his hands much in combination. He can get obvious with his entries and doesn’t do a great job feinting or changing up the shots he enters with. He can get hit clean closing the distance and doesn’t really move his head much. He can get hit and taken down as well, because of throwing blind leg kicks. He has a good chin and has never lost a fight, so he has great confidence. He doesn’t have great power, and definitely is more of a wrestler with 1 KO in his career. He had improved movement and volume in his most recent fight and is improving. I expect him to look better again here in this match.
Brad Katona is a good grappler, an ok wrestler, and he is fairly explosive and athletic. He likes to shoot singles and doubles from the outside and will fake the shots and throw punches over the top. On top he is strong, he has good control, and likes to try to land hammerfists and short punches from guard or half guard. He isn’t extremely dangerous on top, but he will attempt guillotines from mount, and has a decent back take & rear naked choke. Fighters are able to time takedowns on him and take him down. He is explosive, and hard to hold down. He has good cardio and is hungry young fighter who is trying to prove himself. Katona is still green, but he is improving, and he needs to keep this fight on the feet and try to out strike Lopez. He should attack the body and throw leg kicks early and often and try to counter with left & right hooks. Lopez has lost back to back fights by KO/TKO so Katona needs to test that chin and see if it’s still there.
Matthew Lopez
Age: 31
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: 69”
Gym: Genesis Training Center
From: Arizona
UFC Record: 2-3
Fight Matrix: 49
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +160
Matthew Lopez has fallen on tough times. After a strong start to his UFC career he has been knocked out back to back times, and with a loss here could be in danger of losing his job. Lopez looked out of shape for his fight with Alejandro Perez in my opinion and gassed out quickly. I see him knowing this fight has potential job saving implications and come in much better condition. Lopez is a fast starter, and has won in the first round, in all 5 of his UFC fights. Lopez is a decent southpaw striker. He has good hands, a nice jab, and good left hook. He has a fast-straight left hand. He also has nice inside legs kicks, and left body kicks. He is very heavy on his lead leg and has gotten it chopped down in his previous two fights. He does a good job of landing nice upper cuts, and straight shots to the body in close range, and he has a fast duck under for a double leg takedown. He has power in his hands and is willing to wing hooks in the pocket with his opponent. He has good power with 4 KO/TKOs in 10 wins. He has been finished twice back to back by strikes, and badly needs a win here.
He is a fantastic wrestler, and the wrestling coach at Genesis MMA. He has great doubles and single legs, and he does a great job of chain wrestling. He will come up into the clinch if he can’t finish his shots, and circle to the back and land nice slams and trip takedowns. He is very good at standing in the pocket, seeing a punch coming and ducking under & landing doubles. On top he works quickly and is very dangerous. He does a great job of going to mount and landing nasty ground & pound finishing Johnny Eduardo with it. He also has great back takes, and rear naked chokes, and if he gets on top of Katona he will be the better ground fighter. He is very good in scrambles and does a good job of using funky positions to create scrambles and end up in top position. He proved he is a great submission grappler going toe to toe with Rani Yahya on the ground for two rounds. Lopez should try to use his pressure boxing game to stalk Katona to the fence where he can eventually level change take him down, get the back and get the rear naked choke. I think that Lopez has the ability to hurt Katona on the feet with punches as well.
I am pretty surprised that Lopez is a +160 dog in this matchup. He has been (T)KO’d in his last two fights, but Katona only has 1 TKO on his record and that was a body shot. So, this isn’t really a spot I am too worried about Lopez’s chin. I also think Lopez is the better wrestler and grappler. On the feet, I think this fight is pretty close, but I would favor Katona in a 15-minute stand up fight. I just don’t think there is any way this fight stays standing for 15-minutes. Lopez is a solid wrestler and he lands 3.13 takedowns per 15-minutes at a 57% accuracy. That is the clear path to victory for him here as well. I think he gets the fight to the ground enough times to possible steal an upset victory here, if not even pull off a submission. Katona looks decent himself, and I think he can get back to the feet a lot and make this a good fight. I just think this is a tough test for him and I don’t think he should be a -185 favorite in this spot.
On DraftKings, it is going be Lopez or nothing for me personally. I think we get an upset in this fight and with Lopez being only $7.3k, I think it makes him one of the best underdog plays on the card and I think it would be hard for him not to 10x in a win here. I think Lopez will be somewhat popular here in this spot, but I am fine with going overweight and getting over 30-35% percent to try and still get leverage over the field. I don’t think he is a lock by any means and I will not be all-in on Lopez, but he is one of my top 3 favorite underdogs on the card if not my very favorite. I will be somewhat heavy on Lopez in my LUs and I think he is in play for all formats. Katona will be a fade for me because I don’t see him wanting to grapple a lot with Lopez, so I don’t think we get any/many takedowns, and I also don’t see him getting a KO. I would need more than 20 LUs before I started to roster Katona, personally.
Winner – Matthew Lopez via Split Decision
Elias Theodorou $8,200 vs Eryk Anders $8,000
Elias Theodorou
Age: 30
Height: 6’1
Weight: 185
Reach: 75”
Gym: Kros Gym
From: Canada
UFC Record: 7-2
Fight Matrix: 18
Last Fought: 7 months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -120
Elias Theodorou is coming into this match on a two-fight winning streak, while winning 4 of 5 overall. Theodorou is a point fighter who likes to use a lot of kicks, and timely grappling to win decisions. He constantly switches stances and stays in kicking range. He is always gauging, and controlling distance by fully extending his lead arm, throwing kicks and moving. He very rarely even throws punches, and never wants to be in boxing range. He throws inside and outside leg kicks, and front kicks to the body. He will throw the front kick to the legs also, and a lot of round & sidekicks to the body. He will throw occasional spinning kicks to the body & head. He will also throw jumping round house kicks to the body. He is always moving, and he can throw the kicks from both stances, making him a hard puzzle to solve. He has a lot of wasted movement and tires himself out by being too sloppy on the feet. When fighters explosively close the distance on him, he can become very defensive and back up to the cage where he can be exploited. He isn’t dangerous on the feet, and fighters don’t really have to worry about getting dropped or KO’d on the feet by Theodorou. He has 5 TKOs but those are on the ground. He has a great chin, and big heart never being finished in his career.
Theodorou is a gritty fighter, and tenacious with his grappling. He will tie fighters up when they close the distance on him, and he does a good job of grinding on fighters in the clinch. He has nice shots off the break, and it’s one of the rare places he will throw punches. He will throw occasional jabs, lead elbows and uppercuts, but I see him just kicking & moving this fight. He has no problems throwing short uppercuts and punches in the clinch as well. He does a good job of getting in on a body lock clinch and circling to the back where he has decent suplexes and takedowns. He does a good job of pummeling against the cage and digging under hooks where he has good control. He can be controlled against the cage as well and can struggle to get his back off the cage if fighters get in dominant position. He will make it a dog fight and continue to land shots on the break, re-clinch and make fighters work when he feels them slowing down. He is hard to take down, but he doesn’t have great takedowns himself either. Theodorou prides himself in his cardio, and he can do hard all three rounds. Theodorou needs to use a lot of movement and throw off Anders with rhythm breaking kicks as he tries to close the distance. Anders is low output, and if Theodorou can go first and stop Anders offense with a constant volume of kicks he can win an easy decision. Theodorou needs to avoid getting backed up to the fence because that is where he is in the most danger to be hit with a big shot or controlled against the fence.
Eryk Anders
Age: 31
Height: 6’1
Weight: 185
Reach: 75”
Gym: Spartan Fitness
From: Alabama
UFC Record: 3-2
Fight Matrix: 36
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +100
These guys have been calling each other out on social media for a while here and will finally get to duke it out. Eryk Anders has had a very busy 2018 and is returning less than 3 months after a brutal short notice fight in which he lost via exhaustion. Elias Theodorou is coming off of back to back ho hum decisions, which is kind of his MO. Theodorou has one of the most boring styles to watch in the UFC, but it is effective in scoring points. Eryk Anders is an athletic south paw with knock out power. He does a good job of using forward pressure and pushing fighters to the cage. He has a nice straight left hand, and a decent straight right hand. He will throw a left hook right upper cut combination. He has good power, and fast hand speed when he actually lets his punches go, but he tends to be low output. He will throw nice low leg kicks and got a nice head kick knockout in his last win vs Tim Williams. He seems to wait a lot for a knockout punch and can let fighters go first and rack up points against him. He needs to be more aggressive in this fight and let his hands go, because if he doesn’t Theodorou will out volume him on the feet. He is explosive with knockout power, and 7 knock outs. He has never been finished via strikes in his career and showed off a great chin against Thiago Santos.
Anders to me is a better grappler than he is a striker. He likes to use his punches to get the clinch, and push fighters to the cage. He is strong in clinch positions and will land short knees and punches. He has nice elbows and will attack with head kicks off the break. On top, Anders is strong, he has good ground & pound and control. He throws nasty knees to the body when he can get fighters on the ground near the fence and throws hard punches. He has good back takes and will search for rear naked chokes. He usually has good cardio, but he is coming off a grueling match in which he lost due to exhaustion. Anders needs to be more active in this fight. If he just walks down Theodorou and doesn’t throw much, I see him most likely losing a decision. I feel Anders should look to get inside, throw hook combinations and get takedowns. We have seen Theodorou taken down by fighters like Tavares, and I just feel the rhythm breaking kicks, and movement of Theodorou will trouble Anders if this is a 15-minute striking fight.
This is actually one of the fights I am looking forward to the least on the card. In general, Theodorou fights are not very fun. He likes to stay at reach and dance around the cage using his kicks, and then he will mix in a takedown here and there. He also has more decision wins than he does finishes, and that style is just not helpful in DraftKings. Anders in my option is the more exciting fighter with his finishing ability, but he actually lands less strikes per minute than Theodorou does. If this fight goes all 15-minutes, I think we are in for a boring fight that will end with the winner scoring 60-70 points. If that is the case, then these guys won’t be winning any GPPs. I think we need a finish in this fight for it to be worthy of a roster spot, and I think Anders is the one who is more likely to get a finish and that is via KO with his power and athleticism.
The line for Fight Goes To Decision is -225 and that makes me want to fade this fight all together. Theodorou is $200 more expensive than Anders but his ITD line is +522 compared to Anders +328. To me, I see no reason to roster Theodorou here and he will be a full fade for me because I don’t see him getting a finish and I don’t see him landing many takedowns. I think Anders has the power to be able to KO anybody, so that does put him in play for me. But I don’t like that +328 ITD line and Elias has never been finished. So, for me it is Anders or nothing for this fight, but nothing is the side I would prefer if I was only making a few lineups. I am going to side with Anders to get the win here, but it is in Canada so if this goes to a decision then we will need some fairly clear rounds to make that happen and I am not confident in that.
Winner – Eryk Anders via 3rd round (T)KO
Katlyn Chookagian $8,700 vs Jessica Eye $7,500
Katlyn Chookagian
Age: 29
Height: 5’9
Weight: 125
Reach: 68”
Gym: Team Renzo Gracie
From: New Jersey
UFC Record: 4-1
Fight Matrix: 2
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: -190
Katlyn Chookagian is 2-0 at 125 lbs in the UFC and is 7-0 overall in the weight class. She has beaten some top fighters in the division such as Andrea Lee, Sijara Eubanks, Lauren Murphy and Alexis Davis. Jessica Eye is also 2-0 in the woman’s flyweight division and is 6-0 overall in the weight class. Both girls are very confident, and this should be a fun fight. Chookagian is a good striker, with a point fighting style. She has a nice jab, and she will double and triple up on it. She will follow the jab up with a straight right-hand leg kick combination and has very fluid kicks with her lead leg. She has a nice front kick, side kick to the body, along with a fast-high kick. She will throw question mark kicks, and hook kicks as well with her lead leg. She has good overhand lefts and rights in close range and will sit down and throw with power. She has a nice left hook straight right hand to the body. She will throw hooks to the body and has nice rear uppercuts. She is good at catching kicks, and returning with shots, and she is good defensively. She has good footwork, lateral movement and keeps a high volume of shots out there. Her left knee and high kick are her most dangerous attacks, she dropped Liz Carmouche with a head kick. She has two knockouts in her career and has never been finished.
Chookagian is a Renzo Gracie brown belt, and well versed on the mat. She has good duck unders for double legs and is strong in the clinch with knees. She is good at landing hard knees to the body and disengaging when fighters try to clinch with her, and she has good takedown defense. When she does get taken down, she will attack with triangles, arm bars and has a decent get up game. She does have two submissions in her career with one being an arm-bar. On top she has good control and will win rounds through top position. She isn’t a huge finishing threat in top position and I doubt she will go for takedowns here. I see Chookagian implementing her usual game, striking and movement from the outside. She should try to set up her kicks with her punches, and always be moving while throwing a high volume of shots out there. Jessica Eye was dropped by a high kick by Kalindra Faria, so Chookagian should try to exploit that as well.
Jessica Eye
Age: 32
Height: 5’6
Weight: 125
Reach: 66”
Gym: Strong Style Fight Team
From: Ohio
UFC Record: 2-5-1
Fight Matrix: 9
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +165
Jessica Eye is very confident and has been calling for a title shot since this division was opened. She had a big upset win over Jessica Rose Clark, and will be looking to earn her shot with a win here. Eye is a boxer with good hand speed. She has a nice jab, and good straight right hand. She does a good job of using a lead left hook to a right straight combo. She has a good overhand right left body kick combination. She likes to catch fighters as they close distance with the right hand, and she won’t throw nearly the output of Chookagian. She will throw decent outside leg kicks, and body kicks. She will go high with her rear kick, and front kicks to the body and face. She isn’t as fluid with her kicking game, and much more of a puncher. She doesn’t have big power, and just 3 TKOs in her career. She has never been finished by strikes in her career, and she is a tough chick.
Eye has tried to round out her game, and even competed against the likes of Meisha Tate in a jiujitsu competition. She has decent double legs and will try to get body locks in the clinch. She will throw heavy elbows, and search for submissions on top also. She has good back takes and will go for rear naked chokes. She also likes to attack with leg locks and will use the 50-50 position to get on top. She has good takedown defense, and I doubt she will go for many takedowns herself in this fight. She only has 1 submission and been submitted one time herself. Eye needs to try to counter with her straight right hand and overhands when Chookagian throws jabs. If she can land clean and hurt Chookagian that’s her best chance to win.
I am looking forward to this fight less than I am the previous fight. Not only is this the worst fight on the card from a watching perspective, but it is also the worst fight to target on DraftKings. For that reason, I will keep this short…. I think Chookagian is the rightful favorite and I think she is the better striker where I see this fight playing out. She has never landed a takedown in the UFC and the most she has ever scored on DK is 83-points. That was against Irene Aldana who fights at a much higher pace than Eye. I think Chookagian wins a 60-65-point decision here and at $8.7k that does no good.
On DraftKings, I am full fading this fight but I would say Eye is the preferred play. She will be the one going for takedowns if there are any, and she is the underdog so it’s easier to pay off $7.5k. I just don’t see her getting many takedowns, if any, and I think she loses. With Chookagian, she does throw a lot of strikes and screams for each one, but she is hitting air 70% of the time so we would really need FightMetric to be counting screams instead of sig strikes landed (which I wouldn’t put it past them), so I will be full fading this fight and if I was making 150-lineups then I still might full fade it.
Winner – Katlyn Chookagian via Split Decision
Olivier Aubin-Mercier $8,500 vs Gilbert Burns $7,700
Olivier Aubin-Mercier
Age: 29
Height: 5’9
Weight: 155
Reach: 73.5”
Gym: Tristar Gym
From: Canada
UFC Record: 7-3
Fight Matrix: 25
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -120
This fight has already been booked previously, but never went down. Gilbert Burns was denied the ability to fight when he came into fight week too over weight and was pulled from the match. Hopefully it can happen this time because it is an interesting contest. Both fighters had win streaks snapped in their last outings, so they badly need a win here to stay afloat in the uber competitive LW division. Oliver Aubin-Mercier, has really improved his game as of late. He ran into a buzz saw in Alexander Hernandez, but performed admirably, and is still a fighter to watch for the future in my opinion. He is a big bulky grappler, who has started to round out his striking game. He is a tricky southpaw. He has good inside leg & body kicks. He throws a nice right hook, straight left-hand combination. He has a nice jab, and he will double & triple up on it. He has great timing on his left hook catching fighters as they close the distance. He has a nasty straight left hand to the body, he hurt and finished Evan Dunham quickly with it. He has gotten much faster with his hand speed, and it has made him much more dangerous. He also is more comfortable opening up with more techniques, such as high kicks, and spinning back kicks to the body. He only has one TKO in his career, but it was his last win, and he’s growing as a striker. He has a great chin, and never been finished in his career.
Aubin-Mercier is a very strong grappler, and a bruiser for the division. He is very strong in the clinch, he has nice knees to the body and control against the cage. He has strong body lock takedowns, and he does a great job of slowing the fight down by using the clinch when fighters close the distance on him. He has strong double and single legs, and on top he is very strong. He has good BJJ and an opportunistic submission game. He keeps very heavy physically pressure on opponents, forcing them to give their back, where he has great back control & rear naked chokes. He has good takedown defense and proved that against Alexander Hernandez having a great battle with a potential future champion. He was able to use a kimura to sweep Hernandez and get top position. He has 7 rear naked chokes, and one key lock. He has good cardio and will be looking to bounce back & get a win in his home country. I see Aubin-Mercier trying to keep this fight standing and catch Burns with shots as he closes the distance. He is going to be landing tighter, cleaner shots in exchanges, and I believe his body kick will give Burns issues. If he can keep this fight standing I see him having a big advantage in the stand up.
Gilbert Burns
Age: 32
Height: 5’10
Weight: 155
Reach: 71”
Gym: Hard Knocks 365
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 6-3
Fight Matrix: 62
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +100
Gilbert Burns is an amazing BJJ practitioner fighting out of Hard Knocks 365. He has tried to round out his striking game, and his power makes him dangerous, but he is still a bit wild. He will throw a jab out there, along with a straight right hand. He has a decent left hook, and always has his overhand right cocked and ready. He has big power in his right hand, and he can finish the fight with one shot. He has strong leg kicks, and hard body kicks. He loads up on his shots, and it makes him very dangerous, but also obvious, and easy to read. He attacks in straight lines on the feet and doesn’t use a lot of angles or movement. He is light on his feet but likes to stand right in front of opponents. He doesn’t have great defense, he will just back straight up and shell up. He has great heart and a good chin. He’s dangerous early and will go hard for the finish, but he does slow down a bit as the fight goes on. He has 5 KO/TKOs in his career, and only been finished once, but it was a pretty brutal knock out, just 5 months ago.
He is one of the best BJJ practitioners in the UFC, and dangerous off his back and on top. He has decent double leg entries but doesn’t finish them well. If he can get in the clinch he can bully guys and slam them to the mat. He does a good job of getting double under hooks. He has good body locks. On top he is very heavy and has great submissions. He will attack with armbars and rear naked chokes. Dan Moret was able to stand up a couple times against the cage, and survive on his back against Burns, but he landed some nice ground & pound elbows. He has 7 submissions in his career, and 12 wins in 13 finishes. Burns should try to use his hooks, and explosive combinations to close the distance and try to take OAM down or land a big shot. I think this is a really tough stylistic matchup for Burns, but he is always a dangerous fighter.
This is one of the closest fights on the card and I am glad we get to see it after it was cancelled the previous time they were matched up. I would love to see this fight hit the mat and watch these guys roll a bit, but I don’t think OAM will want that to happen and I think he will want to keep this fight standing the whole time if he can. I think grappling is really the best part about OAM’s game though, but Burns is just better IMO and much more likely to lock up a submission. I also think Burns is the more dangerous striker and more likely to pick up a finish there as well. His ITD line is +205 compared to OAM’s +556, so Vegas definitely agrees. However, OAM is still favored. I think that is because he is the smarter, more accurate fighter and they think in Canada, with a smart game plan, he can work his way to a home town win. I think that is the perfect read on this fight. I see it going just like that as well, however I think Burns has a better chance at winning a decision than OAM does ITD. For that reason, I am going to slightly favor Burns here and I love that he is $800 cheaper on DK.
On DraftKings, my preferred play is Gilbert Burns. IF he wins this fight, then it will likely be a finish. He has finished 12 of his 13 fights and he has the power on the feet for the KO, and he is one of the best submission artists in the UFC if it hits the ground. If OAM wins, I think we are looking at closer to ~80 points in a decision win, and I would rather take my chances at the finish with Burns at a cheaper salary. If this fight does have scrambles on the ground and OAM can get top control without being submitted, then maybe he has ~90-point potential, but he isn’t a guy I like to target this week. He might make my player pool as the last fighter in my lineup because he fits the salary, but if I am just making 3-5 lineups I would probably just fade him. With Burns, I do want exposure to him with 3-5 lineups. I haven’t made lineups yet, but I am guessing 30% or so is where I will end up.
Winner – Gilbert Burns via 2nd round (T)KO
Claudia Gadelha $9,300 vs Nina Ansaroff $6,900
Claudia Gadelha
Age: 29
Height: 5’4
Weight: 115
Reach: 63.5”
Gym: Xtreme Couture
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 5-3
Fight Matrix: 2
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -335
Claudia Gadelha will be looking to put on a dominant performance here, and prove she still belongs at the top of the division. She is a well-rounded fighter with solid striking, and great wrestling to go along with a black belt in BJJ. She is very physical for the division and a great athlete. She is fast with her hands and entries into her punching combos. She throws very nice straight right hand left hook and left upper cut combos. She has nice elbows in close and will sit in the pocket and throw down against you. She is awesome exiting and entering the clinch with elbows and punches that have big power. She is comfortable in exchanges and throws hard hooks. She has good overhand rights, and wide left hooks. Gadelha has 2 KO/TKOs, and definitely will have the power advantage in this matchup. She is super tough with a great chin and has never been finished.
Gadelha is an elite grappler, and bruising wrestler. She is very strong in the clinch. She does a great job of using her hooks to close the distance and grab the Muay Thai clinch where she throws brutal elbows, punches & knees. She is very strong in the clinch with body lock trips and throws. She is explosive with double leg takedowns and does a good job of getting them against the cage or reactively in space. She is very heavy on top with great guard passing. She does a great job of getting to side control where she lands hard elbows. She does a good job of taking the back and getting rear naked chokes. She has nice arm bars as well. She hasn’t gotten very many submissions in the UFC, more relying on ground & pound and control, but she does have 7 career submissions. She has gassed in recent fights, starting very quickly and then fading as the fight goes on. She was nursing a knee injury going into the Esparza fight, and that could potentially have something to do with her cardio, and overall performance. Gadelha should look to back Ansaroff up with her wide punches & hooks. If she can stalk her to the cage, and use her punches to get takedowns, I feel she will have a big advantage on the mat. I also feel she will be able to dominate in the Muay Thai clinch.
Nina Ansaroff
Age: 33
Height: 5’5
Weight: 115
Reach: 65”
Gym: ATT
From: Florida
UFC Record: 3-2
Fight Matrix: 9
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +275
Nina Ansaroff will finally get the chance to prove she is a legit title challenger. She has long been touted by American Top Team, as the best 115 lber in their gym. She will be taking on one of the greatest Straw weights off all time in Claudia Gadelha. Claudia Gadelha is coming off a close decision victory against Carla Esparza and will be looking to get back into title contention with a win as well. Nina Ansaroff is a cleaner striker. She has a nice jab, and good hard leg kicks. Her leg kicks are heavy, she really hurt Angela Hill and Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger. She can get a bit flat footed, but she showed improvements in her lateral footwork in her last fight. She is better when she is taking the center of the cage and moving forward. She will back opponents up with front kicks to the body and come over the top with hooks. She has a great chin and eats shots without even registering them. She has a decent high kick. She has good footwork in the pocket, can angle off and land a hard shot. She does a good job of catching opponents coming in with punches if they’re closing the distance aggressively and can land nice quick flurries inside. She has nice hooks and uppercuts in the clinch. She is a taekwondoe black belt and shows it at times with spinning kicks to the head or body. Ansaroff has decent power with 4 KO/TKOs, and has a good chin never being finished by strikes in her career.
Ansaroff is physically strong for the division and does a good job of denying the clinch and angling off. She can get stalked to the fence where she can be taken down. Markos was able to take her down early and control her on top. She will attack with triangles and arm bars, but if she lets Gadelha get on top of her she will be in trouble. She has decent takedowns herself and on top she is good. She has good transitions and will work for the RNC. She got one vs Lybargar. In the Justine Kish fight she got tired in round 3 and was taken down and controlled on the ground multiple times in that fight. She showed better cardio vs Randa Markos, but Markos was able to get to positions, that she couldn’t capitalize on with takedowns that I think Gadelha will. Ansaroff has only one submission in her career and been submitted one time. Ansaroff needs to use her jab, leg kicks, and footwork to angle and circle and not get backed towards the cage. If she can move and frustrate Gadelha with leg kicks, and the jab she should be able to open up more later on in the fight and land harder shots.
I have bet on Nina to win her last 3 fights and she has come through for me. However, this is a bad spot for her IMO. I picked her in her last 3 fights because I thought she was the better striker and she would be able to keep the fight on the feet where she wants it. Against Claudia, she still may be the better striker, but Claudia can and will land takedowns in this matchup. I think if Claudia is losing in the striking department she will go for chain takedowns to keep the fight on the floor where she is more comfortable. She lands 4-6 takedowns in most of her fights and I love targeting wrestlers in DK. I think she could also get submitted here if Claudia gets her back. For Nina, her only chance to get a win here is to keep this fight standing and tire Gadelha out and try to win the last half of the fight. I don’t see that being the case though. Maybe she can win the 3rd round if it gets there but I think Claudia will have a solid 2 rounds in the books with her wrestling game.
On DraftKings, Claudia is my preferred play here and one of my top plays on the slate. I love that she is going to be the one going for takedowns and I think she is good enough to get close to 10 takedowns in this matchup. I think Nina will be able to get back to her feet a lot and that will just lead to more takedowns. I am likely going to fade Nina because I think she spends too much time on her back. I would need over 20 lineups before I started rostering Nina but if I was making 150 then I would maybe throw her in 5-10 but more of a hedge to my Claudia LUs. I think I want over 40% Claudia and I think she is playable in all formats. I think she has 100-point upside in a takedown as long as she isn’t gassed in round 3 and just survives the round.
Winner – Claudia Gadelha via Unanimous Decision
Thiago Santos $8,800 vs Jimi Manuwa $7,400
Thiago Santos
Age: 34
Height: 6’2
Weight: 205
Reach: 76”
Gym: Tata Fight Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 11-5
Fight Matrix: 12
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -190
Thiago Santos has been on a roll. He is 3-1 in 2018, 6-1 in his last 7 and 2-0 at his new weight class. Santos is a devastating striker, and one of the best kickers in the sport. His hands are not as good, but he has power and is very aggressive. He likes to close the distance with powerful leaping hooks. He has a good long left hook and will try to follow it up with a rear right uppercut. Santos’ switch kick is one of the most powerful strikes in MMA. He will fold fighters with body kicks and put them to sleep with head kicks. He likes to use inside leg kicks to set up his left kick to the body, and if he can land it clean the fight is most likely over. Santos is usually the fighter who likes to move forward, but he will use stance switching to set up counter kicks. He does a good job of switching to south paw to give a little ground to his opponent, and immediately landing the left kick as they come forward. Santos also has a nasty spinning hook kick. He finished Jack Marshman with it, and it’s a scary technique. Santos is hittable, and he doesn’t take shots well. He can get too over aggressive with his hands and get countered and clipped. He also is very bad defensively against the cage. He doesn’t keep a high guard, and instead tries to fight out of it by throwing wide hooks. It gives opponents chances to counter and hurt him. Santos has 13 KO/TKOs in his career and been finished 3 times by strikes himself.
Santos has improved his grappling and is now a solid wrestler. He does a good job of using punches & kicks to back his opponents to the fence, where he will get easy double legs. On top he will throw brutal ground & pound. He has nasty elbows to the body & head and will throw heavy hammer fists. He has good control in top position, and when he gets on top of opponents, he definitely does damage. He isn’t a submission threat and will really only look for ground & pound. Santos has good takedown defense himself. He will sprawl on attempts and does a good job of making opponents pay with short elbows when they attempt to take him down. He battered Jack Hermannson with shots as he tried to take him down before finishing him. Santos can get off balance when he throws certain kicks, and Anthony Smith was able to capitalize and move directly into mount off of a slip. If anyone comes into this fight with a wrestling game plan, I would see it being Santos. If he can get Manuwa on his back with doubles, he will be able to control and land some ground & pound. Santos is not a submission threat with just 1 submission in his career. He has been submitted 2 times himself. Santos should try to make this an outside fight and keep his back off the cage. If he can move, land kicks in space, he will be the more dangerous, faster striker. If he can safely time, close the distance and get double legs, I feel that’s a smart thing to do against such a power puncher in Jimi Manuwa.
Jimi Manuwa
Age: 38
Height: 6’0
Weight: 205
Reach: 79.5”
Gym: Keddles Gym
From: England
UFC Record: 6-4
Fight Matrix: 14
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +165
Jimi Manuwa has lost 3 consecutive fights and is in desperate need of a victory. Thiago Santos on the other hand is 2-0 since moving to LHW, but he has fought two MWs at LHW. Manuwa will be his first true 205er he has faced in the UFC. Jimi Manuwa is a solid boxer, and good overall athlete. Manuwa has spooky power and can end the fight with one punch or kick. He is always looking to land his left hook, and he has a good left hook right leg kick combination. He has a good straight right hand and will throw a counter right hook as well. He will throw hard left hooks to the body, and really slow opponents down as the fight continues. He throws hard leg kicks, and really can hinder the movement of his opponents. He throws switch kicks from the outside to the legs & the body. He likes to be the fighter moving forward, and stalking opponents to the cage. There he will unload with his left hook straight right hand. He can be a bit hittable when he stands in front of opponents. Jan Blachowicz was able to land his jab, and boxing combinations on him in their previous match. He has 15 KO/TKOs in 17 wins, and his main objective is to knock his opponent out. He has a questionable chin and has been KO/TKOd 3 times. The fighters he has gotten finished by are top 5 opponents, including some of the hardest hitters in MMA such as Anthony Johnson, and Volkan Oezdemir.
Manuwa is very strong in the clinch and does damage. He has brutal knees. He will throw hard knees to the legs, body & head, and can really do a lot of damage in short range. He isn’t much of a wrestler, but he will go for body lock takedowns, and he also will catch kicks and try to drag it to the mat. He will also duck under when he feels his opponent getting too close to him and will jam his opponent to the fence. He has good takedown defense himself. He does a good job of reading when an opponent is going to shoot and denying it with under hooks. He also has a decent sprawl. If fighters are able to set the takedowns up with punches, and get in on Manuwa’s legs, he can be brought down. He does have a good get up game, he will use the cage to stand up, and is hard to control on his back. Manuwa isn’t a big submission threat, but he will counter with guillotines when opponents attempt takedowns. He will use the position to land hard knees as well and do damage. He only has one submission in his career, and it was a guillotine. He has never been submitted, and I think he would be a tough guy to submit. He has solid cardio and can actually go for all three rounds. I feel Manuwa needs to close distance in this fight, get Santos to the cage where he can negate his kicks. He is going to be the bigger fighter, and first true 205er Santos has faced. If he can bully him along the fence with knees, and show his strength, he may be able to demoralize Santos. The closer he has Santos’ back to the cage the better. Santos doesn’t do well defending inside boxing combinations, and if Manuwa lands one clean Santos will go down.
This fight has the highest FDGTD odds on the card at -520 and that makes it one of the best fights to target on the card. Both of these guys throw with heavy power and it only takes one shot from either of them to end this fight. They have also each been KO’d 3 times. I don’t see either guy going for takedowns here, so a knockout is the most likely ending to this fight. That probably leads to a high score from the winner, especially if it is round 1. I am really not confident in either guy here because of their chins, but it is a great fight to target overall and you can even go all-in with it and target both sides heavily.
On DraftKings, my preferred play is Thiago Santos. He has the highest ITD line on the card at his -155 line and he is 4 years younger than Manuwa, so I will be picking him to win and that is why he is my preferred play. Either way, I want target to both of these guys if I am multi-entering and if Manuwa is your preferred play then I have no issue with you being higher exposed to him. If Manuwa wins with a KO he is almost certainly on the winning lineup at $7.4k where there is a chance Santos doesn’t end up on the optimal with a 3rd round KO at his $8.8k tag. If I am making 10 LUs, I would probably want 5-6 Santos and 3-4 Manuwa. I would be pretty surprised if this went the distance, so I want to say the winner ends up on the $25k lineup. Only way this doesn’t finish is if they are too respectful of the others power and both are hesitant to engage, and it ends in a boring fight. Which would suck. However, if I am making only 1 LU, I am not sure I want to take a chance on this fight since I am not confident in either guy. I would rather go with wins I feel better with in 1 LU so in that instance than I can see a fade on this fight just because you don’t want a low floor in your solo bullet. Other than that, this is one of the best fight to target on the card and you can load up on both sides.
Winner – Thiago Santos via 2nd round (T)KO
Hakeem Dawodu $8,600 vs Kyle Bochniak $7,600
Hakeem Dawodu
Age: 27
Height: 5’8
Weight: 145
Reach: 73.5”
Gym: Champ Creed MMA
From: Canada
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: 138
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-1-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -165
Hakeem Dawodu is a very athletic striker. He got blitzed and finished very quickly against Danny Henry in his UFC debut, and followed that up with a decision win over Austin Arnett. He is a striker with big power. He will wear opponents out with hard body shots. He will hammer knees to the body in the clinch and does a great job of attacking with hooks to the body. He will throw jabs, and hard leg kicks inside and outside throughout the fight. He has big power in his kicks and was eating up the legs of Austin Arnett in his last win. He is flat footed and doesn’t move his head off center line when throws hooks, making him susceptible to straight punch counters. He likes to use a lot of hooks, upper cuts, and wide punches in the pocket as opposed to straight shots. His chin to me is a bit questionable to me, but he’s never been finished with strikes. He has 6 KO/TKOs in 8 wins.
He is a strong athlete, and a good grappler. He is strong in the clinch landing hard knees, and short punches to the body. He has explosive double leg takedowns, and good body locks. On top he isn’t great, he has decent ground & pound but is still green on the ground. He has great takedown defense and is very explosive and hard to hold down. He has great cardio and comes in good shape for every fight. He needs to use movement, and not stand in the pocket with Bochniak. Bochniak is extremely comfortable in a war evident in his fight with Zabit Magomedsharipov. If he can chop the legs of Bochniak, move and time double legs, he could potentially take a decision. I think he needs to mix up his striking and wrestling to win this fight and quell the forward motion of Bochniak.
Kyle Bochniak
Age: 31
Height: 5’7
Weight: 145
Reach: 70”
Gym: Broadway Jiu-Jitsu
From: Massachusetts
UFC Record: 2-3
Fight Matrix: 149
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +145
Kyle Bochniak had a fight of the year candidate earlier in the year in a war against Zabit. He is a tough never say die fighter out of Massachusetts. He does a good job of sticking to game plans, and has the movement to play an outside game, along with the toughness and cardio to play a pressure game. He is light on his feet, has a nice jab, and an accurate straight right hand. He has a good counter left hook, and he will follow with a right hook or right straight. He has no problem sitting in the pocket & trading power shots, and he has a great chin. I see pressure being effective in this fight. He needs to close the distance with punch combinations and stay in Dawodu’s face. He is explosive with blitz attacks also, and I could see Bochniak hurting Hakeem with a big shot. He has 2 KO/TKOs, and never been finished in his career.
Kyle Bochniak is a good wrestler and does a good job of setting up his takedowns with punches. He likes to close the distance with overhands, and then fake the overhands and duck under for well-timed double legs. He doesn’t have great finishing ability on the takedowns, but he does a good job of landing punches off the break and re shooting. He has good single leg entries against the cage and will try to dump his opponents. He has solid control in the clinch and will land short shots, but he doesn’t normally engage in the clinch. He has fantastic cardio and chin, and I see him being a guy you have to put out cold to stop from coming forward. Bochniak needs to close the distance with punches, jam the leg kicks of Dawodu and stalk him towards the cage. He should try to force Dawodu to engage in grappling situations, especially early to get him thinking and slow him down. If Bochniak can get inside, then I see him being the one landing the harder shots in boxing range.
This is a fight I am really looking forward to watching, but not so much wanting to roster in DraftKings. I think this fight is going to play out on the feet and neither guy throws at a high enough pace to have 100-point potential in a decision from a striking match. I think Dawodu is the better fighter and I think he has more power as well. But I think Bochniak is a live underdog here and could pick up a win if he can turn this into more of a brawl. If he can make this a fun fight like his last one, then that is his path to victory and he could get a (T)KO that way. I just think people have short memories and they are respecting Bochniak a little too much because of his loss to Zabit and they are valuing that more than Dawodu being 2-1 in his last 3 with the only finish being his loss. I think Dawodu needs a win here in Canada and I see him having a smart game plan to get that done. I think he is the more technical fighter and he has the power to be able to finish the fight within the 15-minutes as well. I just don’t think that is likely and I see him winning a 30-27 striking based decision.
On DraftKings, this is not a fight I love but Dawodu is my preferred play. I think we will need a finish from him to 10x his $8.6k price tag, but he has 6 (T)KO’s in his 8 wins and I think that is in play here. Dawodu will likely make my player pool but he isn’t a guy I am forcing into LUs and I would think he would only make 2-3 if I was making 10. I think Bochniak is in play as well, but I would say closer to 1-2 lineups for him and my main issue with him is that I think he will be somewhat popular and 1-2 lineups still puts me underweight. That makes me want to fully fade him here, but I also don’t want to be buried if he does get the win. I think if you are only making 3 LUs this is a good fight to just fade altogether, and if you even fade it with 10 LUs I don’t think that is the worst idea.
Winner – Hakeem Dawodu via Unanimous Decision
Gunnar Nelson $8,400 vs Alex Oliveira $7,800
Gunnar Nelson
Age: 30
Height: 5’11
Weight: 170
Reach: 72”
Gym: Mjolnir
From: Iceland
UFC Record: 7-3
Fight Matrix: NR (Inactivity)
Last Fought: 1 Year 5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -130
This is an awesome fight. Gunnar Nelson is making his return after a year and half lay-off. He got knocked out in round one in his last fight versus Santiago Ponzinibbio and will be looking to get back on track. Nelson is a karate fighter, with a long stance and hands down fighting style. He is very quick in & out and does a great job of controlling range. He has a great straight right hand and is extremely fast closing the distance with it. He will throw nice check left hooks and does a good job of slip countering with straight punches. He isn’t very high volume and throws usually just one shot at a time. He has strong kicks with his front leg. He will throw nice inside leg kicks, outside leg kicks, and sidekicks to the body and head. He will also mix in spinning heel kicks, and other spinning kicks. He is heavy on his lead leg, and I feel Cowboy may be able to land low kicks. When Nelson gets his movement hindered he becomes much more hittable. He has good, but not devastating power with only 3 KO/TKOs in his career. He has never been finished prior to the knock out at the hands of Ponzinibbio. In my opinion Nelson needs to keep his hands up in this fight. I just feel keeping your hands down against an explosive KO artist like Oliveira is very big risk.
Nelson is a great Jiu-Jitsu practitioner, a former ADCC competitor, and a Renzo Gracie black belt. Nelson is a good wrestler, he has nice double legs, and good body lock trips. On top he is very heavy and has great ground & pound. He has great guard passing and will land nasty elbows and punches from mount. He makes fighters give their backs, where he will lock in rear naked chokes. He has good high elbow guillotines also, catching Alan Jouban in one after hurting him. He has good takedown defense, and I doubt Cowboy will attempt takedowns. He is looking huge in recent photos, leaving SBG Ireland and I feel he will come in with a grappling heavy game plan. I see Nelson trying to time Oliveira as he closes the distance with straight right hands and ultimately try to duck under, get a takedown and get a rear naked choke.
Alex Oliveira
Age: 30
Height: 5’11
Weight: 170
Reach: 76”
Gym: ATS team Tres Rios
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 9-3-1
Fight Matrix: 16
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +110
Alex Cowboy Oliveira is a beast and has been on a roll lately. Cowboy Oliveira is so loose and calm in the cage and has a lot of fun. He starts attacking right away with no feeling out process. He is very athletic, fast and wild on the feet. He will use a lot of lateral movement, throw hard inside leg kicks, looping punches and come in on fast blitz attacks. His straight left hand is nasty, and he will throw it 4-5 times in a row closing distance with it. He has a nasty teip kick to the body, and an extremely powerful uppercut. He KO’d Laflare with an uppercut. Oliveira is extremely aggressive at times. He has a really nice standing elbow, and a nice double knee to the body as well. He has a great chin, and will to win, but he has taken a lot of damage. He has huge power and had a quick KO in less than a minute over a hands down karate stylist similar to Nelson. He has 12 KO/TKOs in his career, and only been finished by strikes 1 time.
Oliveira is a strong grappler. He is great in the clinch. He does a good job of getting double underhooks and landing nasty knees to the body. He gets wrist control and lands hard knees to the body and he has good elbows on the break. He is very physically strong and will control and finish his opponents in that position. He has good body locks, and double leg takedowns against the cage, and has nasty ground & pound. He has very heavy top pressure and looks for arm triangles from top control. He can get swept and was swept and double legged by Condit a couple times. He uses a lot of strength and muscling on bottom rather than technique. Cowboy needs to throw a lot of leg kicks and front kicks to the body, and then blitz Nelson with straight left hands. He is super explosive closing the distance and if he can land clean, he can put anyone to sleep. He needs to stay off his back because I feel he is not nearly as good on the ground. He has 4 submissions himself and been submitted 3 times.
This is a fight I love to target and am really looking forward to watching. On the feet, I think this is a close fight and will be fun to watch play out. I think Nelson will be winning if he can keep it at distance and Cowboy will be winning if he can pressure him. I also think Cowboy is the more dangerous guy and he also strikes at a higher pace. If this stays standing the entire time, I would slightly favor Cowboy to get the job done in a decision or a (T)KO. However, I think if this fight hits the ground then Gunnar has a pretty decent edge there, and I think he has a good shot at a submission win if he can get it there. I also don’t think he will go for zero takedowns, especially if he is losing in the standup. For that reason, I am favoring Nelson to get the job done and I think he could submit him in any round.
On DraftKings, Gunnar Nelson is my preferred play. This is one of the better fights to target on the card with a FDGTD line of -290, so I will be targeting both sides if I am multi-entering here and I have no issue with another all-in spot here. I just think I would rather target the better grappler in case the striking doesn’t go his way. I also like the +100 ITD line for Gunni and that makes him one of my favorite plays on the card with his $8.4k salary. If I am making 10 LUs, I would want at least 4 with Gunnar and maybe even 5-6. With that much exposure I would probably throw the rest of my LUs on Cowboy except maybe 1. If your exposure would be the opposite then I have no issue with that, but overall this is a great fight to target and I have real hard time seeing the winner not get 10x or more.
Winner – Gunnar Nelson via 3rd round submission
Valentina Shevchenko $9,400 vs Joanna Jedrzejczyk $6,800
Valentina Shevchenko
Age: 30
Height: 5’5
Weight: 125
Reach: 67”
Gym: UFC PI
From: Peru
UFC Record: 4-2
Fight Matrix: 1 (FW)
Last Fought: 10 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -350
Valentina Shevchenko has been in fight camp all year long. She has had two failed attempts at fighting for the 125 lb title as Nikki Montana pulled out and was ultimately stripped. Shevchenko is 1-0 in the division with a brutal stoppage victory over Priscila Cachoeria and is an overwhelming favorite to win this fight. Valentina will be the physically bigger woman in this matchup having moved down from 135 while Joanna has come up from 115. Valentina is one of the best female Muay Thai strikers on the planet. She has a record of 56-2 as a pro Muay Thai competitor and has transferred that style nicely to MMA. She is a phenomenal counter striker; her lead left check hook is a thing of beauty. She does a great job of landing a straight right hand to a left hook combination. She uses kicks to the legs and the body, and then will catch opponents sleeping and counter them with a perfect spinning back fist. She will throw a superman punch to a leg kick combination. She likes to throw the right hook to set up her straight left and bing opponents with it. She likes to use a spinning back kick to move backwards. In Muay Thai she has a lot of knockdowns with that technique. Her awareness of distance to return with a counter shot is second to none. She will slip and land hard overhands. She is always balanced and never puts herself out of position. She has strong and solid leg kicks. She exits out of danger after combinations super smooth. She does a good job of moving her head off of the center line and not getting hit cleanly much. When she gets confidence, she will start to really walk opponents down and get them to open up with shots she can slip and counter. She was dropped by a fake jab uppercut by Holly Holm which is a shot that Joanna throws very well. Valentina is not a one-shot striker either in terms of power, but I do feel she has more power in her strikes in this matchup. She has 4 TKOs in her career and was finished one time by TKO by Liz Carmouche.
Valentina is a great grappler, and I see her trying to use her grappling a lot in this match. She has good clinch entries, where she will get good head position and land hard elbows and knees. She is very strong in this position, and wears opponents out. She has nice hip tosses and trips in the clinch as well and is a good wrestler. She will shoot for single legs in open space, and she has a nice snatch single. She was able to set up an easy double leg with punches in her last fight and displayed some vicious ground & pound. She was able to get good posture in the guard and rain down nasty elbows and punches to the body & head. She really bludgeoned Cachoeira and it was hard to watch. She was able to get the crucifix position, and mount landing a huge amount of ground & pound before getting the rear naked choke. I feel on the feet it will be a very close fight. I see Valentina wanting to strike a bit and then get into the clinch or get this fight to the mat. I feel if she can get in the clinch or on top of JJ she may be able to bully her and do damage.
Joanna Jedrzejczyk
Age: 31
Height: 5’6
Weight: 125
Reach: 66.5”
Gym: ATT
From: Poland
UFC Record: 9-2
Fight Matrix: 3 (SW)
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +290
This is an amazing match. The former straw weight queen Joanna Jedrzejczyk, will be the first woman to fight for a belt in two weight classes in the UFC, along with Valentina. If JJ were to win, she would be the first double division champ in women’s UFC history. Valentina Shevchenko is finally getting her long-awaited title shot at 125 lbs after a failed bid at the 135 lb title last year. These women have faced off 3 times already in Muay Thai with Shevchenko taking all three meetings by decision. Jedrzejczyk is fighting for the first time at 125 in the UFC, and after quite a few brutal weight cuts, I’m excited to see her performing at her optimum without cutting as much weight. Joanna is blistering fast, and one of the better strikers in the entire UFC. Joanna has an amazing jab, and she needs to use it a lot in this match vs Valentina. She will double and triple up on her jab, really accentuating her reach. She needs to stay long and throw her jab hard and straight both to the head & the body. She likes to use her jabs to set up combinations, and when she finds her range she is deadly. She has a nice jab to straight right hand to the body combination. She does a good job of using her jab to set up her overhand right. She has nice feints & fakes and she likes fake shots to get reactions from opponents and attack other areas left vulnerable. She has a nice left hook to the body. She dropped Claudia Gadelha with a nice lead uppercut. She has brutal low calf kicks, really battering the leg of Rose Namajunas in their title fight. She has nasty front teips to the body, they are very fast and straight, and she digs the balls of her feet into her opponent’s stomach. She will throw her right teip to the head after landing it to the body a few times and can catch fighters clean. She does a good job of setting up her teips with leg kicks and likes to throw a right inside low leg kick to a front kick to the body combination. She will throw the front leg front kick to the face as well, and she’s fluid kicking with both legs. She has nice, fast, left high kicks, and she likes to set it up either with the jab or right leg kick. Joanna is going to be the faster fighter in space. In the small amount of footage, I could find from their Muay Thai matches, it was pretty evident Joanna had the speed advantage. Joanna has a tendency to get emotional and stand flat footed and try to wing hooks and straight punches in the pocket. She was tagged a couple times by Tecia Torres because of this, and continually touched with the leaping left hook of Rose Namajunas in both fights. She needs to be much more defensively sound in this match. Always be moving, throwing kicks, jabs and trying to use the whole octagon to move & use footwork. The cage is going to be a massive difference, and advantage for Joanna after fighting Valentina in a ring previously. She will have much more room to move around and use her speed and footwork. Joanna keeps a high volume of shots out there and is able to keep the same pace for the entire fight, if not even turn it up as it goes. She is much more of a volume striker than a knock out artist, but she is dangerous with 4 KO/TKO wins in her career. She has only been finished once by strikes, but her chin has been questionable lately. Her last two fights, she hasn’t been dropped or hurt much, but prior to that she was finished in round 1 by Rose and dropped in all 3 of her fights before that.
Joanna has really improved tremendously with her grappling, and this to me is the biggest difference between when these girls first met. In the first match it seemed like Valentina was able to dump or body lock Joanna very easily when they tied up and now things may be different. Joanna is much thicker, and more muscular along with having much better technique. She is nasty in the clinch. She does a good job of sprawling on takedowns, getting an over hook and throwing hard knees to the body to go with elbows. She did a good job defending the take downs of Tecia Torres against the cage, and ultimately using her under hooks and good head positioning to turn Torres and control her against the fence. She had nasty knees to the body, and good front elbows to the face. She likes to get the Muay Thai plum clinch where she is deadly. She does a great job of pulling opponents heads down & attacking with knees and will throw hard elbows to the head. She has bloodied the faces of multiple opponents with those hard-slashing elbows. She has great takedown defense, she has phenomenal balance, technique, and is very hard to take down. When she does get taken down, she does a great job of protecting herself and returning to her feet making her opponents work. We have seen opponents such as Claudia Gadelha, have success taking down Joanna early, but as the fight went on she gassed, and JJ took over. Joanna won’t go for takedowns herself normally, she has only two takedowns landed in 11 UFC fights, most of those being 5 rounds. She has 83% takedown defense. She isn’t really a submission threat with just one submission in her career, and she has never been subbed herself. Joanna is still going to be the slightly taller woman in this matchup, and she needs to use kicks to keep distance and stay at a safe range. I don’t think JJ wants to be in boxing range very much, just because of her chin and potential sharp counters of Valentina. JJ needs to use leg kicks, and front kicks early, try to move and walk Valentina into jabs and straight right hands. She cannot stand in front of Valentina and try to use her hand speed instead of her feet, because I think even if she lands three Valentina just needs one to win the exchange. I feel as if Valentina is going to try to push JJ against the cage, and zap some of her speed and energy early. JJ has to start fast and try to win the early rounds and make Valentina work from behind. If she can just use her quickness to land and frustrate Valentina with movement similarly to Amanda Nunes that’s her best chance at victory.
This is a very fun fight and one I think is closer than the odds indicate. Valentina has beat JJ 3 out of 3 times in Muay Thai and she is coming down from 135 where JJ is coming up from 115. I feel like the betting line is solely based on those two things and her having the ground advantage. I am completely tossing out the Muay Thai victories here because that was a long time ago and a different sport. And the size advantage isn’t that big, and at the press conference stare down JJ even looked a bit bigger IMO. Valentina is great on the feet and that is her best area in the fighting game. However, I highly doubt she knocks JJ out, and she lands strikes at half the pace of Joanna. If this fight stays standing for 25-minutes, I actually favor JJ to win a decision based on volume and pressure. However, if Valentina wants this fight to take place on the ground I think she does have an edge there and could even get a submission. JJ is hard to takedown though and she is pretty good at getting up.
On DraftKings, my preferred play is going to be JJ here and she is only $6.8k on DK which is crazy. I think she will be the most popular underdog of the week, but I want to be overweight if I can and I think she is a lock for cash games. I like the stack in this fight as well and I think this fight scores well over 100-points. JJ is just the best punt on the board if you don’t want to stack it. Shevchenko is in play for GPPs as well but not somebody I am going to be heavy on. I do prefer the fighters around her and with JJ being my preferred play she just won’t end up in many of my LUs. I won’t fully fade her though if I am multi-entering and I very well may be stacking this fight. If not both. With 10 LUs I am thinking JJ makes at least half and I would say 1-2 for Shevchenko. I think Shevchenko will be low owned in GPPs and that is the main reason I think she is in play, but I think 20% is probably overweight and I am fine having her in 20% of my LUs with the JJ exposure I plan on having. I am looking forward to this fight though and I am going to go out on a limb here and pick the big upset.
Winner- Joanna Jedrzejczyk via Split Decision
Max Holloway $8,300 vs Brian Ortega $7,900
Max Holloway
Age: 26
Height: 5’11
Weight: 145
Reach: 69”
Gym: Hawaii Elite MMA
From: Hawaii
UFC Record: 15-3
Fight Matrix: 1
Last Fought: 1 Year
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W12
Betting Odds: -110
This a super fight. Max Holloway and Brian Ortega are two of the best fighters in the entire UFC and are going to go at it in the primes of their careers. Brian Ortega is undefeated coming off an impressive knock out of Frankie Edgar. Max Holloway is coming off of back to back finish victories of Jose Aldo but has had issues since. He was forced to pull out of a fight with Frankie Edgar due to injury. He then attempted to fight Khabib on short notice and was denied the opportunity to make the weight. Most recently Holloway was set to face Ortega and was pulled during fight week for concussion like symptoms. I hope Holloway is 100%, and we get to see this fight go down on Saturday. Max Holloway has adopted a very similar style to that of Nick Diaz. He uses a lot of the same techniques as Nick, he loves to throw the check left hook and lead hand he will paw out with it and then come with the 1-2. He is great at landing the one two, and then pull countering and landing it again. Holloway has a fantastic jab, and he needs to throw it early and often in this match. He likes to use a jab straight right hand, or jab left hook combo. He does a good job of attacking the body with his jab also. He will jut his chin out to try to goad you into trying to hit him, so he can come back with counters. His pull counters, are probably the best part of his offensive striking game. He has good kicks and will throw hard low leg kicks. He likes to end combinations with spinning hook kicks to the body and flying knees. He will land the jump knee to the body very effectively, and his body work melts fighters later in fights. His volume, and cardio to just continue to keep pressure on opponents is too much for most to handle. He defeated the best FW of all time back to back to cement himself as the best FW in the world. Holloway doesn’t have huge KO power, but has finished 9 fighters via KO/TKO mostly due to accumulation of shots. He has never been finished by strikes and has one of the best chins in the UFC.
Holloway isn’t an offensive wrestler and will rarely if ever go for takedowns. He did land a nice body lock trip on Anthony Pettis and was able to finish Aldo on the ground twice after dropping him. Holloway has incredible takedown defense. He has not been taken down in his last 10 UFC fights and defended 27/27 takedowns. Holloway does a great job of sprawling on takedown attempts or getting his back to the cage, where he will widen his base and make it extremely difficult to take him down. He will make opponents pay for the attempts with elbows and short punches. Holloway likes to attack with the guillotine when fighters attempt to take him down as well. He got a guillotine against Andre Fili, and Cub Swanson. Holloway showed a great top game against Jose Aldo. He had a very heavy mount and was landing hard ground & pound elbows. I don’t see him wanting to grapple at all with Ortega and trying to keep this fight on the feet. Ortega has had problems with getting hit with jabs and leg kicks in the past, and Holloway should exploit that. Max needs to use his jabs, leg kicks and boxing combinations. If he can keep this fight on the feet, he will have an advantage technically. He should also attack with body with shots. If he can wear on Ortega with constant volume he may be able to finish in the later rounds.
Brian Ortega
Age: 27
Height: 5’9
Weight: 145
Reach: 69”
Gym: Black House
From: California
UFC Record: 6-0-1
Fight Matrix: 2
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W6
Betting Odds: -110
Brian Ortega is 14-0. He is 6-0 with 6 finishes, and finally getting his shot to compete for the belt. Ortega is a pressure fighter. He likes to get fighters uncomfortable on the feet, force them to take a bad shot where he can lock up a submission and go home. He has a good jab and will use it to set up his right uppercut. He likes to throw a left hook to the body, overhand right combination. He has a good left hook to the head as well. He throws all his shots with big power and loves to hang out in the pocket. He is a fighter who is very comfortable in exchanges. He will return with big shots if he gets clean, and rarely lets his opponent get in a free power shot. Ortega will dig to the body with left hooks, and right hands, and does a good job of slowing his opponents down. Ortega will fake single legs, and then come over the top with overhand lefts and left hooks. He also will throw lead and spinning elbows in close range. He will also throw nasty jump & step in knees. He finished Clay Guida with a knee. He will throw hard low kicks and spinning heel kicks to the head & body. He isn’t a big kicker, and IMO should probably throw more leg kicks. He is extremely tough & durable. He is hittable, but he will eat shots and continue to press forward. He has no problem being hit, and it makes some fighters start to doubt they can hurt him. He is coming off a brutal knock out of Frankie Edgar who had never been finished in his career. He has 3 KO/TKOs in his career.
Ortega is one of the best jiu-jitsu practitioners in UFC history. He is extremely dangerous in the clinch. He will land nice hard uppercuts & knees in close range, and always is looking to wrap the neck. He will jump on guillotines from standing position, showing how devastating a squeeze he has finishing Cub Swanson this way. Ortega is not an offensive wrestler, he will occasionally attempt a body lock. He likes to circle to the back and get suplex’s. Ortega doesn’t even attempt to stop takedowns and is a savant off his back. He does a great job of throwing frame elbows from his back, he will cut the face up of his opponents off his back. He likes to always have his feet on his opponent’s hips, not to get up, but to slightly offset the balance to create a submission opportunity. He has blazing fast hips and will throw up triangles out of nowhere. He will transition from the triangle to the armbar if he sees the opening. He has good sweeps and on top, he will work for back mount where he has an excellent rear naked choke. He has excellent cardio himself, usually starting slow and picking up as the fight goes on. He is never out of a fight. He has been down 2 rounds to 0 multiple times in the UFC and was able to get the third-round finish. He has 7 submissions. Ortega needs to be the hunter in this matchup. For him to win he is going to have to make it happen. He needs to get inside let his hooks and uppercuts go, and not let Holloway have any free shots. He needs to continuously be making Holloway uncomfortable with pressure and try to back him up. If he can clip Holloway in close and then grab onto a submission I see that as his best chance of victory.
This is the fight everyone has been waiting for and hopefully, it will finally happen (knock on wood). These are by far two of the top guys in this division and it is a fun matchup. On the feet, I think Max is the much better fighter and he lands sig strikes at almost double the pace of Ortega. I think if this fight stays standing then the only shot Ortega has to win is a knockout. Everyone is so concerned with Holloway’s health, so maybe Ortega can connect and prove them all right. I am not trying to be a doctor though and I will just base this fight off what I have seen inside the Octagon. However, on the ground, this fight is just as much of a mismatch, if not more. Ortega is easily one of the best submission grapplers in the UFC if not the #1 best. He doesn’t even need the fight to hit the ground sometimes to lock them up, he is that good. But that is hard to do consistently and not something he should rely on. His issue is that he only lands 0.22 takedowns per 15-minutes and that is only at a 14% accuracy. I think he is in trouble here if he can’t get takedowns and I would be shocked to see Ortega win a decision in this fight. For Ortega, it’s finish or bust. There is no way he is winning rounds in this fight and I think if this fight hits the 4th or 5th rounds it will be harder for him to get that finish. He will be more tired by that point from getting tagged up for the previous rounds so it will be harder to get the KO. Plus, they will be much sweatier at that point, so it will make it harder to get a submission. I think Ortega needs to get the finish in rounds 1-3 for him to have a real chance in this fight. If that doesn’t happen I think Max walks away with a dominant decision victory if not even a late (T)KO. The thing with Ortega is that he only really needs to lock onto Max one time to get the fight finished, where Max doesn’t really have that one punch finishing power himself.
On DraftKings, Max Holloway is my preferred play but both guys are obviously in play. I think this is a solid fight to stack in cash as well and I have toyed with the idea of the dub stack, so I may just throw both title fights in cash and lock in 2 wins and over 200-points. For GPPs, this is probably an all-in fight for me. I think with these guys being $8.3k and $7.9k it is very likely the winner will at least 10x that salary and probably end up on the optimal lineups. I will be using both guys, but I am going to be higher exposed to Max personally, and I am leaning closer to 7/3 if I do have 10 LUs. If you are confident in Ortega and want to go 7/3 the other way I don’t have an issue with that and the odds value is on Ortega so it’s a fine move. You just have to realize you’re banking on the finish because it is going to be very hard for Ortega to win rounds against the champ. I can’t wait to watch this fight play out though and I am sure it won’t be the last time we see these two go at it.
Winner- Max Holloway via 5th round (T)KO
UPDATE — Diego Ferreira $9,200 vs Kyle Nelson $7,000
This fight was added today, and I had cpu issues where I wasn’t able to do full research on it or have time to get it fully written up. From what I saw, Nelson doesn’t have a lot to offer and on short notice, I would be surprised to see him win. I will be full fading Nelson here. I think Ferreira is in play in all formats and he has some odds value with him being cheaper than Claudia and Shevchenko. No issue if you want to load up on him, but I could see him playing it safe with a fight on such short notice. I will have exposure to him, but I don’t know how heavy that will be yet. I would guess 35-45% but if you want to slide into my DMs on Twitter before the fights I can give you my CDF exposure. I think he is a fine cash play as well with the odds value and I have no issues if you want to start your cash LU there.
Thanks again for purchasing this article and be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building and I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks and predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice and fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley, and if you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.