AFriedman15 – Aaron Friedman researches and writes college football articles for DFS Army. Aaron is a lifelong resident of the Chicago suburbs and a Northwestern alum and football season ticket holder. College football was Aaron’s first DFS sport and he was thrilled to see it return in 2018. He believes that the thrill, pageantry, and the importance of every game are unparalleled in sports. Aaron enjoys betting on the games and watching everything from #Pac12AfterDark to #MACtion, and especially enjoys the Tuesday-Friday games with so much happening on Saturdays. In real life, Aaron is an IT analyst and with his wife, is the parent to three small dogs. Find Aaron on Twitter at @AFriedman15DFS.
The 2018 DXL Frisco Bowl takes place tonight, December 19, 2018 at 8pm EST in Frisco, TX between the San Diego State Aztecs and the Ohio Bobcats. Two run heavy teams with pretty good rush defenses and ok to poor pass defenses. Ohio enters the game as a 3 point favorite. SDSU has struggled down the stretch (1-4 in their last 5), so it seems like there is a lot of public backing for Ohio. Not so fast, I say. As we saw last night, MAC teams have struggled tremendously in bowl games, and SDSU has had some time to get over the injuries that have hampered the program this season.
Ohio has had a great offense (#9 in Offensive S&P), with QB Nathan Rourke (2228 pass yards, 27 pass TDs, 961 rush yards, 13 rush TDs), RB AJ Ouellette (1142 rush yards, 12 TDs), backup RB Maleek Irons (831 yards and 8 TDs). Here is a game by game comparison of Rourke, Ouellette, Irons, and White.
….San Diego State is allowing 94.5 rushing yards/game, so Ohio could have to take to the air where explosive Papi White (58 catches, 897 yards, 9 TDs), Andrew Meyer (34-445-4) and Cameron Odom (29-404-2) are the main targets here.
For San Diego State, I mentioned the up and down season. The Aztecs are led by RB Juwan Washington (180-870-10), who has continued the line of strong RB play out of this program, who missed a few games. For the last few games, SDSU has used two QBs. Christian Chapman, the starter most of the past three years missed a chunk of the season. Since Chapman returned from his knee injury on Nov. 3, he has split time with Ryan Agnew, who drew the starts in Chapman’s absence. On a radio interview, SDSU coach Rocky Long identified Christian as the starter for the bowl game.
There could be some merit to fading the QB’s Trevillion 10 big plays on the season are second on the team to Washington’s 11. Trevillion has three-70 yard passes in the last two games, and another 34 yard pass.
Allright, let’s dig into the DraftKings and FanDuel Single Game writeups!
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DraftKings Slate Notes:
Ohio QB Nathan Rourke is the man for me. Even if SDSU’s rush defense plays to more, he is still a passing threat and he has arguably the highest floor in the game. I can also make a good case for SDSU RB Juwan Washington. Then I would look WRs Papi White and Fred Trevillion. White gives some interesting flexibility (like you could fade Ouellette, and the lowest guy you’d be spending on would be 4k). If you go with Rourke as captain, you are likely going to have to fit in a turd, so with that White build, you aren’t forfeiting a position.
Rourke and Washington are my priorities, so if they are not your captains, I would get them in as UTIL plays. Even with the good SDSU run defense, Ohio is a run-first team, so I do like AJ Ouellette here. NIU was a good defense too, and they got gashed, so its not out of the question for a good defense to struggle. Ohio’s Maleek Irons (126-831-8), is very viable here too, as an efficient runner. The number 2 and number 3 receivers, Andrew Meyer and Cameron Odom are decent price plays, if you believe that Ohio will abandon the run. There are the questions at QB for SDSU, so I don’t have a ton of Chapman (he is the only QB I’d even consider). Even with the QB questions, I do have Trevillion and Kahale Warring (31-372-3) in my pool. To me, the cheapest viable play is SDSU WR Ethan Dedeaux ($2400-22-262-0), and then you get into the turd range.
FanDuel Slate Notes:
My primary interests are again, Rourke and Washington.
Pricing is extraordinarily tight here. If you play all three of Rourke, Washington, and Ouellette, you are resorting to two min priced guys who could not do anything. I hate White here, but I could see dropping Ouellette for him. With White, you can at least get semi-respectable options like Deadeaux and Odom, and then capitalizing on the Ohio passing narrative. .
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