By AFriedman15 – Aaron Friedman researches and writes college football articles for DFS Army. Aaron is a lifelong resident of the Chicago suburbs and a Northwestern alum and football season ticket holder. College football was Aaron’s first DFS sport and he was thrilled to see it return in 2018. He believes that the thrill, pageantry, and the importance of every game are unparalleled in sports. Aaron enjoys betting on the games and watching everything from #Pac12AfterDark to #MACtion, and especially enjoys the Tuesday-Friday games with so much happening on Saturdays. In real life, Aaron is an IT analyst and with his wife, is the parent to three small dogs. Find Aaron on Twitter at @AFriedman15DFS.
Boca Raton Bowl Overview and Notes:
The 2018 Cheribundi Tart Cherry Boca Raton Bowl takes place tonight, December 18, 2018 at 7pm EST in Boca Raton between the UAB Blazers and the NIU Huskies. Did you know this is just one of three bowl games to match up two outright conference champions? Much will be made of UAB’s resurgence–the program was killed off from 2015-2016 and they have now won a record 10 wins and the CUSA title– as well as the two team’s robust defenses. The total right now sits at a paltry 43 points with UAB a 3-to 3.5 favorite at most sports books.
From a daily fantasy perspective, I have received important information that UAB redshirt sophomore Tyler Johnston will be getting the start in the Boca Raton Bowl. Senior QB AJ Erdely has a shoulder issue that will require surgery after the bowl game. Even with the good defenses, there will still be yards and fantasy points to have, so let’s focus on the offenses!
UAB has a very good rushing offense, ranking 30th in the FBS in rushing yards. Lead back Spencer Brown rushed for 1,149 yards and 16 TDs and the offensive line has four senior starters. NIU, is a heavy run team, with 553 rush attempts on the season compared to 372 pass attempts. The NIU offense is far from explosive with just 325 total yards/game. Alright, let’s dig into the DraftKings and FanDuel Single Game writeups!
DraftKings Overview and Picks:
Captain:
For me there are three plays here: either UAB RB Spencer Brown, UAB QB Tyler Johnston, and NIU QB Marcus Childers. Brown and Johnston are pretty close in my view. NIU has allowed some decent pass totals and Johnston isn’t as much of a dual-threat as Childers, but he still has the 2nd most rushing attempts on the team and 4TDs, so I don’t hate it as well. I’d probably go Johnston as captain on DK and Brown on FD where it is more TD dependent. Even with the the strong rush defense of NIU, there is still TD upside even if Brown doesn’t put in a huge number on the ground. I will take my chances with the 1,000 yard back.
UTIL:
Brown, Johnston, and Childers are my priorities, so the other two who are not your captains, I would get them in as UTIL plays. If multi-entering, I would recommend a lineup where you swap Childers out for Harbison. Harbison has had two down weeks and NIU has a backup RB Marcus Jones, who can be involved to some degree (though inconsistent usage). I don’t see both Childers and Harbison having a good game, so I don’t think I’d want to play both together. Next, I like UAB WR Andre Wilson on DK, who is more of a PPR guy with 30 grabs for 486 yards, so he gives a fairly decent floor for his price at $5200. As mentioned before, there will be some passing yards there for Johnston and his receivers.
At this point, we are pretty much left to scraping the bottom of the barrel. UAB RB Jarrion Street is an option (he is the co-backup RB along with Stanley), not very appealing, sure, but enough to round out a roster. Lastly, NIU TE Mitchell Brinkman, is practically bare minimum, and he missed most of the season with a broken ankle, but he is back now, so he is undervalued. As for other options, the receivers could be in play, if you want to stack a specific offense. My favorite of the bunch is UAB Xavier Ubosi, a boom-and-bust receiver, but could make a big difference, and he is hard to fit with the aforementioned captains, so you could stack receivers with one of the QBs and drop a QB to the bench. I would recommend this approach for GPP.
FanDuel Overview and Picks:
MVP:
For FanDuel, without the multiplier pricing like DK, I like going with Spencer Brown as the captain here, but there is also merit to Childers, since you don’t have to pay more to fit the most expensive guys in as captain.
FLEX:
Like DK, I like fitting my three highest projected scorers here: Brown, Childers, Johnston III. I love the discount we get on UAB WR Xavier Ubosi here, so he Ubosi is my next target. Street, Wilson, or Brinkman are also in my player pool for FLEX. For GPPs also, there is merit to NIU or UAB stacks, so keep that in mind as well.