This week we have a really fun 11 game slate. There are several higher total high spread games this week that infer some blowout potential. We have 4 teams with implied team totals at or over 40 and 9 teams at or over 30. Let’s get into the slate!
South Carolina @ Florida (-6) ITT 30
This week, Florida looks to get back on track against South Carolina team after back to back losses. South Carolina has a top 25 pass defense on the year but has given up 185 yards on the ground this year. The past 2 weeks, Florida has been unable to get the ground game going while coming from behind but I really like them to look to RB Lamical Perine to get going. QB Felipe Franks has been a game manager at best and is at his highest price in weeks. If you want any part of this passing game, Van Jefferson had 14 targets last week in a game of catch up against Mizzou. That being said he could only manage 4 receptions on those targets. He is GPP only for me.
Ole Miss @ Texas A&M (-13) ITT 40
Texas A&M gets the opportunity to go up against one of the worst defenses in the Power 5. Ole Miss is allowing over 200 yards a game on the ground and over 270 yards passing. QB Kellen Mond has gone up against 2 tough defenses the past 2 games but I think this could be a bounce-back spot for him. He is GPP only for me but I think he could have a great game against a team allowing over 24 DK points a game to opposing QBs. I would love to stack him with either Quartney Davis or Jace Sternberger. Davis has 33 targets over the last 3 games and I really love him to be overlooked this week. My favorite play on this Aggie team is Trayveon Williams. Ole Miss is allowing just under 35 DK points a game to opposing running backs and Williams has 5 games over 20 DK points on the year. He is very viable in all formats.
Trayveon Williams week 10 output
TCU @ West Virginia (-12) ITT 34
West Virginia takes on a top 25 defense this week in a TCU team that has underperformed on the year. Will Grier is back in the Heisman talk after a great game at Texas and this is a week where I really like him. He is at a discounted price due to the opposing defense but with West Virginia, back in playoff contention, I look for them to try to get some style points. At his disposal will be his top receiver David Sills who is viable in all formats but very expensive. Greg Jennings has had 3 touchdowns in the past 2 games but only has 9 targets. I am off of him as he is priced well above his volume, as is Marcus Simms. TJ Simmons has seen more looks the past couple weeks though and at $3,500, I like him for a GPP punt. Generally, I am off of TCU RBs as they have not had a ton of volume, but last week Kennedy McCoy got 17 rushes which is by far a season high. While I do not trust him, he could make a GPP pivot off of this West Virginia passing game against a good passing defense.
Wisconsin @ Penn State (-9) ITT 31.5
Penn State comes off one of its worst games in decades to take on an underwhelming Wisconsin team starting its backup quarterback. Trace McSorely (and the rest of the team) had an awful game last week and look to rebound against a pretty good Wisconsin pass defense, allowing under 17 DK points per game to opposing QBs. The receivers are underpriced due to the bad performance last week and that bodes well for value. KJ Hamler could have a good bounce-back week and Juwan Johnson, who has been injured as of late, is a top target of McSorely’s. Both are GPP plays. Miles Sanders will be my main target on this Nittany Lion offense as he is good value but again only a GPP play for me. I do think this is a week where he can get it going and get to 3x or 4x though.
Navy @ Central Florida (-25) ITT 44.5
Central Florida has the nation’s longest winning streak and brings it into this week’s game against Navy. Navy has had a bottom 10 defense on the year including bottom 25 in both rushing and passing defense. McKenzie Milton comes into this game averaging just under 35 DK points a game. Coming into the season UCF had a Heisman campaign ready to go for him and I look for him to try to pad the stats to get that back on track. Milton’s top target over the past 3 games he has played has been Tre Nixon. Nixon is the underneath option for Milton so he won’t get the most yards but the targets are there. Gabriel Davis and Dredrick Snelson have not been as solid of late but both should have big games against this Navy Defense. UCF’s backfield has been hard to figure out with an RBBC. Adrian Killins was the lead back every week until last week when Greg McCrae had the most carries. If you want a narrative play, Greg McCrae went to the Naval Academy prep school before going to UCF for college. I do not like the RBBC at these prices though.
Mississippi State @ Alabama (-24) ITT 38.5
Alabama has been dominant all season and this week goes up against a top 5 defense in Mississippi State. Tua Tagovailoa finally played into the 4th quarter last week and put up just under 30 DK points. Mississippi State is giving up under 170 yards a game through the air. While I think Alabama can carve them up, I hesitate using Tua because if he does great he gets pulled and if he doesn’t do great then he might be having a great game at his price. Against solid opposition, Damien Harris has taken over as the lead back on this team and I consider this a great rushing defense. While I think he can have a solid game, there are players I like much better at his price point. Where I really want exposure to this Rolling Tide passing game is through the receivers. Jerry Jeudy is a stud and viable in all formats. He has over 18 DK points in all but 2 games, one with 13.9 and one against a Louisiana Lafayette team where he got minimal snaps. Henry Ruggs III, Jaylen Waddle, and Irv Smith Jr. are 3 other pass catchers who are all viable and will get targets.
Washington State (-6) @ Colorado ITT 33.25
Washington State has a top 15 offense and goes into Colorado who has a median defense at best. This is a total that I do not agree with and think will go to the over. Gardner Minshew is averaging over 50 passes and 31 DK points a game. I look for that to continue in this game. One of Minshew’s top targets is his running back James Williams with over 6 receptions a game. Running back Max Borghi is a value play I really like this week. Borghi has over 3 receptions a game and double-digit DK points in 7 out of 9 games this year. Wide receivers Davontavean Martin and Dezmon Patmon are both priced down due to down games last week and Easop Winston is priced up after a good week. I think all three receivers are very viable at their prices.
Check out this great article on freshman running back Max Borghi
Baylor @ Iowa State (-15) ITT 33
Iowa State has been under the radar all year yet has produced some great DFS values. This week they go up against a bottom 30 defense in Baylor that has been giving up over 400 yards a game. Baylor is giving up a conference-worst 27 DK points a game against opposing quarterbacks. Brock Purdy has started the past 4 games and has over 20 DK points in each of those games and that should continue this week. He is one of the top plays for me this week. Receiver Hakeem Butler has been great all season but has averaged over 25 DK points a game since Purdy has taken over under center. That stack should shine this week. In the backfield, David Montgomery had a streak of 7 double digit DK point performances broken last week when ISU didn’t need to use him in a pounding of Kansas. I think he is in great shape again this week, but at his price, I like other options better.
Oklahoma State @ Oklahoma (-21) ITT 50.5
Oklahoma hosts Oklahoma State in a game that has a total of a whopping 80 points! This game should produce huge fantasy points on both sides but especially from the Sooners. Kyler Murray needs no introduction as he would be a shoe-in for Heisman without that guy names Tua. With only 2 of games this season under 30 DK points (one of those was 29.62 and one was an 18.66 1st game of the season where he was pulled early), Kyler is the surest thing in college football. In a rivalry game, Murray will be the chalk of the slate as he should be with this ITT. Both Marquise Brown and CeeDee Lamb continue to be Murray’s main targets. Both are expensive this week and coming off of down weeks. They are GPP for me. Just a few weeks ago, Kennedy Brooks looked like he was breaking out as the new back for the Sooners but last week Trey Sermon got 26 carries. He now has double-digit DK points in the last 4 games but his price is getting to a point where I hesitate to use him.
Week 11 Lineup Construction
Cash
My approach to cash is generally the same every slate. I want to get 2 QBs, 3 RBs, and 3 WRs. This might waver on smaller slates but in general, this is what I am going for. If I am paying down for a QB, I want to make sure that it is a dual-threat QB that can get points with their feet as well as their arm. If I am paying down at RB and WR, I want opportunity, whether that is in total rushes or targets. I generally prefer to pay up at for one QB and for RB’s and to try to find value in the WR position.
This week there is not a ton of value under $4,500 and I really like more balanced lineup personally. You can get several quarterbacks in the $8k – $9k range that will let you still get some solid position players. At running back, I have been getting 1 player in the $7k range then several value plays in the $5k range that have upside. This leaves me enough room to fill in with 3 receivers that have a good floor and a high ceiling. This is not my favorite week for cash due to the lack of value.
CFB $75K SATURDAY SPECTACULAR Week 10 winning lineup
GPP
With DK changing up pricing and the slates changing up, I am leaning more and more to having a good amount of lineups with a quarterback and a skill player at superflex. I still want most of my lineups with 2 QBs but having a share without is good as well. These past few weeks, with the pricing coming down for the top skill players as well as for the top quarterbacks, it allows you to get better skill players into your superflex position. When there were several quarterbacks over $10k and several top running backs over $9k, you couldn’t get much upside with the position players that cheap. With extra salary, you can now put in high upside position players in that superflex role. I also think you can still mix in a few chalky plays with some pivots. Notice that 4 players in that lineup had over 15% ownership while the main stack was very low owned. This is a great way to attack a lineup.
This week there are several high total games that should give you value plays. With so many big names at the top, I look for some of the lower priced quarterbacks to start my stacks. I also like the $5k range of QBs as punts. Nick Fitzgerald can use his legs and his arm. While I don’t think Mississippi State can win this game, Fitzgerald is the type of QB I want for my GPP stacks. I want to stack these QBs with one of their top receivers to lock in points. If you use a lower priced quarterback, you can get 2 of the mid and top tier RBs that can go off. I want to look for RBs that are on teams that don’t pass and don’t have dual-threat QBs.
One stack I really like this week is Kyler Murray with Sermon (if you think he gets a heavy workload again) and one of his top WRs. This guarantees you just about every touchdown and doubles up on many of them. This is a way you can really build up points quickly and this should be very unique. I only like this strategy because there are so many implied points that there is enough fantasy goodness to go around.