For me personally, this is the best week yet for CFB. Not only do we have the Bama-LSU mega game, we also have several other games that could determine conference championship participants. This slate is also very different than any we have had. We have 11 games instead of 10, we have 13 teams with an implied team total over of over 30 and we have 3 games where BOTH teams have an ITT over 30. I really want to focus this week on those 3 games as well as the 2 teams that have ITTs over 45 for the purpose of this article.
South Carolina (pk) @ Ole Miss ITT 33.5
South Carolina has had a very average season thus far but is traveling to Ole Miss who has the worst defense in the SEC and one of the worst in the whole Power 5. Jake Bentley has not been the most efficient quarterback on the year but I think this is a great spot for him. Ole Miss is giving up 27 DK points a game to opposing QBs and Bentley is at a great price. Bentley’s main targets are Deebo Samuel and Bryan Edwards. I think both of these WRs could get used a ton and would love either stacked with Samuel. Rico Dowdle is the lead back for the Gamecocks and is in a great position. That being said, the past 3 games this is looking more and more like a committee with Ty’Son Williams getting almost the same workload. For a team that is giving up almost 30 DK points a week to RBs, I think Williams is a great GPP play this week at a very reasonable price.
South Carolina @ Ole Miss (pk) ITT33.5
Ole Miss might have an awful defense but they also have the 3rd ranked S&P+ offense in the country. Jordan Ta’amu has over 24 points in each game this season minus the games against Alabama and LSU. In each of those 6 games he has over 300 yards passing. South Carolina is only giving up 200 yards passing a game, so this could be an interesting matchup. Ta’amu also uses his feet, especially the last 2 games where he had 36 runs. When airing it out, Ta’amu will be looking for stud receivers AJ Brown and Demarkus Lodge. These are 2 of the most expensive receivers on the board but can be worth it. Brown has over 30 DK points in 2 of the last 3 games and Lodge has over 24 in 2 of the last 3 games. That being said their prices make them GPP only for me. While South Carolina is good against the pass, they are giving up 178 yards on the ground a game. Scottie Phillips has had a solid year in the backfield averaging 16 carries a game, but he does not have a 100-yard day in the past 5 games. I love this position for him though and think that Ole Miss will lean on him to run the ball to set up the pass. With this high total and a pickem spread, I think this is a game that could definitely be a shootout that goes to the over. This could be a full game stack easily that could win a GPP.
Oklahoma State (-8) @ Baylor ITT 38
Oklahoma State comes into Waco to face a Baylor team that has been bad on defense outside of one game, ranking 101st in the country. Taylor Cornelius comes off of a great game against Texas where he had 5 overall touchdowns. In 6 games against Power 5 opponents (plus Boise State) this year, Cornelius has 4 games over 30 DK points, and I like his chances to get to 5. Cornelieus’ main target is Tylan Wallace. Wallace is averaging 11 targets a game and has been the main look all season. After Wallace, there are several GPP plays for me given the inconsistency each receiver has shown week to week. Tyron Johnson has shown to be a great second option but has also had weeks with 1 or 2 targets. Dillon Stoner and Landon Wolf are both guys that could go off and be GPP pivots but they are far from safe and Wolf is way overpriced. In 3 of the last 4 games, Justice Hill has at least 23 carries. He does not have a TD in the last 2 games and does not have a 100 yard rushing day in the last 3. Baylor is giving up over 150 yards on the ground and 28 DK points a game to opposing RBs. I think this is a week Hill is underpriced and could perform great.
Oklahoma State @ Baylor (+8) ITT 30
It is rare that a touchdown or more dog has an implied team total of 30 or more, yet Baylor sits in that position this week. Charlie Brewer sustained a concussion last week against West Virginia and has not yet cleared concussion protocol. If he plays, I like Brewer for GPPs this week. I do not think he will be as high owned and he has the ability to have fantasy production against an Oklahoma State team giving up 23 DK points a game. Last game, Brewer was replaced by dual threat QB Jalan McClendon who put up decent numbers last week coming in relief. McClendon does not do anything for me and is priced up so I will fade him if he starts this week. If McClendon starts I will also be fading the WRs as he spread the ball much more than Brewer generally does. If Brewer starts though, I love this matchup for Jalen Hurd. Hurd had been rushing the ball in short yardage situations and also seeing double digit targets a game. Denzel Mims is also a great option to stack with Brewer and Chris Platt could be a great pivot. I could see 2 or all 3 of them having good days. I really don’t like to use the Baylor running game as the leading rushers are generally the quarterbacks. That will continue this week as I will fade all Baylor RBs.
Syracuse (-4.5) @ Wake Forest ITT 39.75
Syracuse travels this week to take on a very weak Wake Forest defense that is giving up over 500 yards a game on defense. QB Eric Dungey has not been nearly as good as expectations coming into the season, yet last week he started to turn that around with a 300 yard passing performance. Dungey is a dual threat QB who has at least 1 rushing touchdown in each of the last 6 games. Wake Forest is giving up over 235 yards rushing a game and I love this spot for Dungey. Dungey can definitely be stacked with receivers and I love both Jamal Custis and Sean Riley his 2 top receivers. Custis does take the edge here as he is the deep ball threat and has more touchdowns this year. Nykeim Johnson has also come on strong since Syracuse’s week 7 bye, with 18 targets in 2 games. He could make a great pivot off of the top 2 choices. Syracuse is a team that has co-starters that have a combined total of 2 double digit rushing performances in the past 5 games. Moe Neal is the lead back for the year Donte Strickland did get 11 carries last week but it is very hard to trust him even at his price. I can see using them to fill in for cheap punts in MME situations but I will be fading this backfield and using Dungey as the faux RB and QB for this game.
Syracuse @ Wake Forest (+4.5) ITT 36.25
This game has high scoring shootout written all over it and that in part is thanks to the defenses. Syracuse is giving up over 260 yards through the air and that should greatly benefit this passing game. Sam Hartman is a GPP only play for me due to his inconsistency. He has yet to complete 50% of his passes in any ACC game yet he has over 20 DK points in 2 of the 4. Greg Dortch has been the main target for Hartman and is an NFL caliber receiver. He has not seen the end zone except in 2 games this season but continues to get 6 double digit DK point games including 4 over 20 DK points. Outside of Dortch, the receivers for Wake Forest have been wildly inconsistent. Sage Surratt and Scotty Washington have the ability to have good games but also have the ability to go without a target. Matt Colburn has really taken the horns of an early season RBBC and has trended up of late both in carries and production. Against a team giving up over 180 yards rushing a game I love this spot for Colburn.
Louisville @ Clemson (-39) ITT 49.5
Aside from the shootouts, there are 2 teams with huge implied team totals that I want to look at. Clemson, the 13th ranked offense in the country is taking on Louisville, the 99th ranked S&P+ defense in the country, and it should get ugly quick. Louisville has given up just over 200 yards through the air this year and I could see a situation where Clemson pulls Trevor Lawrence this week so he is one to think about for me. Lawrence has been trending in the right direction and has been making big plays. If he continues to breakout, he could have a huge game here. His main target since he has become the starter is Tee Higgins. Higgins has a touchdown in each of the games Lawrence has started (and completed) and has 19 targets the past 2 games. Hunter Renfroe and Justyn Ross have also been helped immensely by Lawrence taking over the full time QB job and are both viable this week. I think my main target this week on this Clemson team might be Travis Etienne. Etienne has had a rough few weeks yet comes into a game facing a defense giving up over 260 yards a game rushing. Due to his recent performance, Etienne is on a reduced salary and he should easily be able to regain his form from the beginning of the season.
Nebraska @ Ohio State (-18) ITT 45
Ohio State has been great on offense this year, with the 4th ranked O in the S&P+ and over 550 yards a game. Dwayne Haskins continues to shine with over 350 yards a game passing and should continue to look good this week against a Nebraska team giving up over 280 yards a game through the air. That being said, Haskins is the most expensive player on the slate but he is a great cash option. Parris Campbell and KJ Hill have both really taken over the lead receiver roles and both are moderately priced. I love both against a Nebraska team that is giving up over 47 DK points to receivers each week. The running game at Ohio State has once again become muddled with JK Dobbins and Mike Weber both splitting touches the past couple games. Until it gets to a clear picture again, I will fade this backfield.
Week 10 Lineup Construction
Cash
My approach to cash is generally the same every slate. I want to get 2 QBs, 3 RBs and 3 WRs. This might waver on smaller slates but in general this is what I am going for. If I am paying down for a QB, I want to make sure that it is a dual threat QB that can get points with their feet as well as their arm. If I am paying down at RB and WR, I want opportunity, whether that is in total rushes or targets. I generally prefer to pay up at for one QB and for RB’s and to try to find value in the WR position.
This is a week where there are great quarterbacks in the $8k-$9k range a lot of good quarterbacks in the $6k – $8k range. I really want to get one of each of those. At running back, I really like the selection in the $6.4k and up range. There are several options there that should be high floor high ceiling kind of guys. This will help you lock in those points. At receiver, there is a ton of goodness in the $5k range and we need to find some value around there. This is how I am going to approach my cash lineups this week
Week 10 CFB $100K Saturday Spectacular winning lineup
GPP
With DK changing up pricing and the slates changing up, I am leaning more and more to having a good amount of lineups with a quarterback and a skill player at superflex. I still want most of my lineups with 2 QBs but having a share without is good as well. These past few weeks, with the pricing coming down for the top skill players as well as for the top quarterbacks, it allows you to get better skill players into your superflex position. When there were several quarterbacks over $10k and several top running backs over $9k, you couldn’t get much upside with the position players that cheap. With extra salary you can now put in high upside position players in that superflex role. I also think you can still mix in a few chalky plays with some pivots. Notice that 4 players in that lineup had over 15% ownership while the main stack was very low owned. This is a great way to attack a lineup.
This week, with so many shootouts, I want to go with full game stacks if I am going to MME. There are several games which look to shootout and have high totals and if I can get the right one, I can definitely shoot to the top of these GPPs. I really don’t mind taking both quarterbacks from one of these games or going with the better quarterback and his top receiver then taking the running back and top receiver from the other team. This is a great way to differentiate your lineup but keep the upside intact.
The other place I really want to attack this week is with the over $6k receivers. I think by default people try to get the safety of running backs and that doesn’t always work out the best. There is a lot of upside with that upper third of playable receivers that could score a ton of points. I really like getting several of those guys in a line up with some low owned value RBs and QBs in order to lap the field.