This is the last week of the regular CFB season and it should be a great one! With the conference championships and playoff berths on the line, a lot will be decided this weekend. There are some great places to attack this week with rematches of the Red River Shootout and UCF-Memphis both with high totals and teams that will be looking for style points. This week I will not have images but will try to get more into game theory with you. I want you to be able to pivot depending on what happens in the early games and be set up for success regardless.
Northwestern @ Ohio State (-14) ITT 37.5
I want to start with Ohio State since I think there are 2 scenarios for this game. This game is the late game, and Ohio State and Oklahoma are vying for the last playoff spot. I think if Oklahoma beats Texas, Ohio State will be out for style points and could put up huge numbers in the passing game (but will also be a riskier style of play). On the other hand, if Texas beats Oklahoma, Ohio State just needs a win. I think they will scale it back and play much more conservative and run the ball more. Obviously, you will have your lineup made when the early game is over but you can make adjustments based on this and you can also make multiple lineups with this in mind. As far as plays go, I really like Dwayne Haskins this week as Northwestern has a much better run defense than pass defense. He also isn’t too crazy expensive even though he is the 2nd most expensive QB. Perris Campbell and KJ Hill continue to be the top targets on the team and are great to stack with Haskins or as stand-alone plays. If you are seeing this as a more conservative game, JK Dobbins has been the lead back but Mike Weber has seen plenty of run as well. Both should get similar playing time this game unless one gets a very hot hand.
Clemson (-28) @ Pittsburgh ITT 40.5
Clemson heads into the ACC Championship facing a very average defense in Pittsburgh. Clemson should be able to impose their will against them anytime they want in both the pass and the run game. Trevor Lawrence is a very reasonable price on this slate and should be able to get 20-25 DK points. Clemson will lean on the run but will air the ball out plenty. Tee Higgins continues to be the leading receiver on this team and Lawrence’s favorite target and I like stacking them again this week. Justyn Ross and Amari Rogers are also both targeted enough to warrant some shares in MME situations. One value play this week is Hunter Renfrow. He has not gotten in the end zone much but he is getting a decent amount of targets and is on the cheaper side. Travis Etinne is very expensive this week after a 28 carry day but it could pay off. He is GPP only with his price tag but he is capable of putting up 40 DK points so he is always relevant.
Alabama (-14) @ Georgia
Alabama might be the best team in college football history and I don’t think they will be slowed down this week. I actually see them as big value plays because they have lowered prices based on the perception that Georgia is an unstoppable defense. Georgia has the 14th ranked S&P+ defense, while Alabama has already handily defeated the 4th ranked defense (Miss. St) the 16th ranked defense (LSU) and the 18th ranked defense (Auburn). Tua Tagovailoa at his cheapest price he has been at all season and after saying fade all year based on him not getting full playing time I want to jump on him this week. Jerry Jeudy is also at his cheapest price of the year and would make a great stack with Tua and is always a viable WR. Henry Ruggs III has also been used more in the passing game of late and could be a great value play. I still am going to avoid this backfield based on the fact that they are so much of a committee. No RB has gotten double-digit carries in 3 weeks.
Memphis @ UCF (-3) ITT 34
With McKenzie Milton out, this is going to be a totally different Central Florida team. Milton missed one other game and the team ran the ball 55 times to 21 passes. Darriel Mack Jr. is the new QB but on the season he is hitting less than 50% of his passes. He did take some big shots last week and proved he will, but I do not trust the passing game at all outside of GPP punt plays. Where I do want to use UCF is in the run game. Adrian Killins and Greg McCrae both had games over 15 DK points last time Milton was out. I think that will be a good floor this week, but beware both running backs price has been inflated due to the situation. That being said, McCrae has double-digit DK points in 5 straight games with over 21 in 3 of the last 4.
Memphis (+3) @ UCF ITT 31
This is a game with an O/U over 60 and a tight spread, so I want to attack both sides. Memphis comes in with a top 5 rushing game and I look for them to continue leaning on it this week. Darrell Henderson is the most expensive non-QB on the board this week and rightly so. He is a threat to hit 30+ DK points weekly with 45-point upside. His backfield partner, Patrick Taylor, also has an 18-20 carry floor and has 40-point upside as well. I actually like Taylor more at his price than I do the more expensive Henderson. Tony Pollard is the pass-catchingg back for the Tigers and was the leading receiver several times this year. Pollard is more of a boom or bust GPP play but when he booms he has 35+ point upside. The one piece of the passing game I want a piece of is receiver Damonte Coxie. Coxie had his worst performance of the season last game against Houston so his price is deflated. He has 40+ point upside and I love him at this reduced rate.
Texas @ Oklahoma (-8) ITT 42.5
Oklahoma and Texas have a rematch of one of the high scoring games of the season. This game has a 78-point O/U and should be another DFS gold mine. Kyler Murray leads this team as a dual-threat quarterback and has been a DFS monster. He has 9 games over 30 DK points and 5 games over 44 DK points. Murray should have another stellar day in this high flying shootout. Murray’s main targets on the year have been Marquise Brown and CeeDee Lamb. Brown is the target leader and has some big flashy plays, but he is also more expensive. I like both of them this game. The big question mark for me is the running game for the Sooners. Trey Sermon got banged up a few games ago and only got 5 carries last week. Unless I find news that he is a full go I will be fading him this week but I do not mind Kennedy Brooks. At Brooks price, I really want to know that Sermon will not be getting many carries though. This is a team that I am really excited to game stack with Texas and bring in another great payday!
Texas (+8) @ Oklahoma ITT 34.5
Texas has had an up and down year offensively but when they have needed to score points they have. They face an Oklahoma defense that has given up at least 40 points in 4 straight games. Sam Ehlinger has a banged up shoulder but continues to get healthier each week. He scorched the Sooners the first game with his legs and I look for him to rely on them again this game. His top target on the year has been Lil’Jordan Humphrey is coming off of his worst game of the season but I am looking for him to bounce back after being snubbed for All Big 12 team honors. Collin Johnson is the other top receiver and he had a huge first game against Oklahoma. In the backfield for Texas, Keontay Ingram and Collin Johnson share carries as they have all year. I am not too excited about them this week as I think Texas will be airing the ball out to stay in a tight, high scoring game.
Championship Week Lineup Construction
Cash
My approach to cash is generally the same every slate. I want to get 2 QBs, 3 RBs, and 3 WRs. This might waver on smaller slates but in general, this is what I am going for. If I am paying down for a QB, I want to make sure that it is a dual-threat QB that can get points with their feet as well as their arm. If I am paying down at RB and WR, I want opportunity, whether that is in total rushes or targets. I generally prefer to pay up at for one QB and for RB’s and to try to find value in the WR position.
This week, I really like taking an elite QB and pairing that with a cheap QB. There are several that I like at both pricing points. At RB, I want to get several moderately priced players in the $6k range and possibly a value play closer to $5k. this will leave me with an average of over $5k to fill in several high floor high upside receivers.
GPP
With DK changing up pricing and the slates changing up, I am leaning more and more to having a good amount of lineups with a quarterback and a skill player at superflex. I still want most of my lineups with 2 QBs but having a share without is good as well. These past few weeks, with the pricing coming down for the top skill players as well as for the top quarterbacks, it allows you to get better skill players into your superflex position. When there were several quarterbacks over $10k and several top running backs over $9k, you couldn’t get much upside with the position players that cheap. With extra salary, you can now put in high upside position players in that superflex role. I also think you can still mix in a few chalky plays with some pivots. Notice that 4 players in that lineup had over 15% ownership while the main stack was very low owned. This is a great way to attack a lineup.
This week for GPP I want to be very flexible as I alluded to when talking about Ohio State. If Oklahoma wins I want a ton of that OSU team and some Northwestern too to bring it back. If not, I want to fade that game more than not. That’s not saying pieces of that game aren’t alight in either case but for the majority of my lineups, that is what I want. If you are going to MME, I suggest having at least a small percentage of your lineups with Big Ten Championship game stacks. If Oklahoma loses you can always pivot these lineups but that way you have plenty to work with.
I also LOVE Alabama stacks this week as I feel they are way underpriced for being a top 2 offense in the country. If you can fit Tua and Ruggs in a lineup with an OSU or Oklahoma game stack, you will be very chalky but you can differentiate with your other pieces. Alabama is the value team of the week.